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1.
A new method of integrating satellite remote sensing data and inundation models allows the mapping of extensive tidal mudflats
in a sub-Arctic estuary, Cook Inlet (CI), Alaska. The rapid movement of the shorelines in CI due to the large tides (~10 m
range) is detected from a series of Landsat imagery taken at different tidal stages, whereas GIS tools are used to identify
the water coverage in each satellite image and to extract the coordinates of the shoreline. Then, water level along the shoreline
for each satellite image is calculated from the observed water level at Anchorage and the statistics of an inundation model.
Several applications of the analysis are demonstrated: 1. studying the dynamics of a tidal bore and the flood/ebb processes,
2. identifying climatic changes in mudflats morphology, and 3. mapping previously unobserved mudflat topographies in order
to improve inundation models. The method can be used in other regions to evaluate models and improve predictions of catastrophic
floods such as those associated with hurricane storm surges and tsunamis. 相似文献
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RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FRACTAL FACTORS AND TECTONIC ACTIVITY——A CASE STUDY OF SOUTHWESTERN YUNNAN BLOCK 
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下载免费PDF全文 Geomorphology could record long-term accumulation of tectonic movement and quantify it by relevant parameters.But because the influences of other factors such as climate and lithology,how to use the relevant parameters to reveal the relationship between geomorphology and tectonics is a research hot spot.In this paper,we utilize the variogram method and the cellular fractal model to estimate parameters such as the fractal dimension (D) and ordinate intercept (γ) from the SRTM3 DEM using a moving window operation.We compare the distribution characteristics of the parameters in different climate and lithology.The results indicate that the correlation between the parameters and lithology or climate is very poor.The fractal dimension (D) reveals a very good correlation with tectonics,which is low in tectonically inactive areas and high in active areas.It implies that fractal dimension (D) may be a new method for research of regional tectonic movement. 相似文献
4.
Ecohydrological evolution model on riparian vegetation in hyperarid regions and its validation in the lower reach of Tarim River 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The evolution of the ecohydrological system driven by external climatic forcing and internal feedbacks between vegetation and hydrology, which is more remarkable in arid and semiarid regions, has attracted substantial research attention in recent years. To examine critically the state‐of‐the‐art assumptions and dynamic equations used in the evolution study of an ecohydrological system, the rule of proceeding from simplicity to complexity should be followed. The riparian vegetation ecohydrological system in hyperarid regions (e.g. the lower Tarim River) can serve as a starting point given its simplicity, which has been seldom examined before in terms of system evolution. Further, the water transfer practice from 2000 to 2006 in the lower Tarim River serves as a valuable prototype experiment for model validation. This is because the remarkable changes in groundwater and vegetation in the area have taken place within a shorter period and thus can be easily observed. In the present study, the ecohydrological evolution model on riparian vegetation (ERV model) in hyperarid regions was proposed by coupling groundwater movement and vegetation dynamics. In the ERV model, the groundwater table serves as a critical feedback variable that determines the vegetation dynamics (colonization and mortality) and is determined by vegetation transpiration other than groundwater movement. The monitored groundwater table by wells and satellite‐observed vegetation coverage from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer are used for model validation. The simulation results show the good performance of the ERV model with uncalibrated parameters. It was also calibrated manually using a multiobjective method, and the fine‐tuned parameters are close to the uncalibrated ones, indicating the robustness of the model. The analysis shows further that the increased evapotranspiration is substantially due to the water transfer and thus the vegetation growth, which implies the importance of ecohydrological coupling for long‐term hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
A guiding principle in hydrological modelling should be to keep the number of calibration parameters to a minimum. A reduced number of parameters to be calibrated, while maintaining the accuracy and detail required by modern hydrological models, will reduce parameter and model structure uncertainty and improve model diagnostics. In this study, the dynamics of runoff are derived from the distribution of distances from points in the catchments to the nearest stream. This distribution is unique for each catchment and can be determined from a geographical information system. The distribution of distances, will, when a celerity of (subsurface) flow is introduced, provide a distribution of travel times, or a unit hydrograph (UH). For spatially varying levels of saturation deficit, we have different celerities and, hence, different UHs. Runoff is derived from the superposition of the different UHs. This study shows how celerities can be estimated if we assume that recession events represent the combined UHs for different levels of saturation deficit. A new soil moisture routine which estimates saturated and unsaturated volumes of subsurface water and with only one parameter to calibrate is included in the new model. The performance of the new model is compared with that of the Swedish HBV model and is found to perform equally well for eight Norwegian catchments although the number of parameters to be calibrated in the module concerning soil moisture and runoff dynamics is reduced from seven in the HBV model to one in the new model. It is also shown that the new model has a more realistic representation of the subsurface hydrology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
A fine‐grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three‐dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south‐western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5·5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
A model is developed for estimating location of a volcano relative to sample points in an associated ashfall, cloud height during eruption, and mean wind velocity during ash deposition. The ash deposit must cover a large area and have an elongate axis. The model appears to be applicable both to recent and to unobserved ashfalls in the past, provided adequate and representative ash samples are available. The opportunity to test the diagnostic model on volcanic ashfalls is limited by sparsity of the necessary input data. From more than 20 ashfalls described in the literature, the 1947 Hekla (Iceland) eruption is the only one which includes suitable particle size analyses taken from samples related to a well-defined axis. The application of the model to the Hekla ashfall is discussed. 相似文献
8.
Tidal-driven dynamics and mixing processes in a coastal ocean model with wetting and drying 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
A three-dimensional sigma coordinate numerical model with wetting and drying (WAD) and a Mellor–Yamada turbulence closure
scheme has been used in an idealized island configuration to evaluate how tidally driven dynamics and mixing are affected
by inundation processes. Comprehensive sensitivity experiments evaluate the influence of various factors, including tidal
amplitudes (from 1- to 9-m range), model grid size (from 2 to 16 km), stratification, wind, rotation, and the impact of WAD
on the mixing. The dynamics of the system involves tidally driven basin-scale waves (propagating anticlockwise in the northern
hemisphere) and coastally trapped waves propagating around the island in an opposite direction. The evolutions of the surface
mixed layer (SML) and the bottom boundary layer (BBL) under different forcing have been studied. With small amplitude tides,
wind-driven mixing dominates and the thickness of the SML increases with time, while with large-amplitude tides, tidal mixing
dominates and the thickness of the BBL increases with time. The inclusion of WAD in the simulations increases bottom stress
and impacts the velocities, the coastal waves, and the mixing. However, the impact of WAD is complex and non-linear. For example,
WAD reduces near-coast currents during flood but increases currents during ebb as water drains from the island back to the
sea. The impacts of WAD, forcing, and model parameters on the dynamics are summarized by an analysis of the vorticity balance
for the different sensitivity experiments. 相似文献
9.
Fires in tunnels are unfortunately frequent occurrences often with tragic outcomes. A recent example is the fire on the funicular train at the ski resort in Kaprun (Austria), which caused nearly 160 deaths. Design engineers and risk analysts require knowledge of the fluid dynamics of the fire and smoke movement to answer questions such as how much oxygen can access and feed the fire, and what concentration of smoke will the people be exposed to. As an example in the Austrian accident the geometry was a long tunnel with fire doors closed at one end, and with a fire initiated near the closed (lower) end. The hot smoke from the fire is a source of buoyancy; the smoke reaches the ceiling of the tunnel, and then develops along the ceiling as a wall-bounded plume. The motion of the smoke is driven by a buoyancy force, but at the same time, mechanisms of turbulent heat and mass transfer act as a brake to this motion. In this paper we present how a generic model describing a semi-enclosed buoyancy-driven flow can be interpreted and used in the modelling of fire smoke movement in a confined tunnel. A consideration of the net pollutant volume flux through the tunnel leads to predictions for the variation of concentrations along the tunnel. The smoke concentrations near the fire smoke source scale linearly with the length of the tunnel, with higher concentrations at the lower section of the tunnel, as could be expected. Similarly the concentration of oxygen making its way through to the fire source decreases linearly with the length of the tunnel. A lower bound estimate of the smoke residence time can be obtained based on smoke concentration predictions from the model. 相似文献
10.
Marian Anghel Yehuda Ben-Zion Ramiro Rico-Martinez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(9-10):2023-2051
— We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2-D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3-D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space, we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformation fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time, given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large-scale, dynamical model for the fault. The map can be evaluated once to provide a short-term predictions or iterated to obtain a prediction for the long-term fault dynamics. 相似文献
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本文以GPS观测、大地热流测量、较高精度地形数据、全球板块相对运动的REVEL模型为基础,建立了以青藏高原现代构造活动为主要研究对象的东亚地区构造形变场有限元模型.数值模拟结果显示,青藏高原内部和周边地区走滑断裂带的活动对东亚地区地壳运动速率和方向有较大的影响,特别是对青藏高原物质向东南方向运动有显著影响;不同构造块体岩石圈强度的差异直接影响了川滇菱形地块边界断层错动性质.在考虑青藏高原地形附加重力作用和周边板块汇聚作用对现今大型断裂带运动特征控制作用的同时,岩石圈之下的橄榄岩软流圈至转换带物质对流对岩石圈的拖曳力也是必须考虑的底部边界条件. 相似文献
13.
A numerical model of the high-latitude ionospheric electric field is presented. To perform the calculations, a model of the field-aligned current source is proposed. The electric field patterns are calculated consistently both in the northern and southern hemispheres. Effects of season, universal time, solar and geomagnetic activity, the neutral atmosphere winds, and of the IMF sector structure are considered. In particular, dynamics of the parameters of convection cells are investigated that depend on the action of these factors. Comparison of the results with experimental data is carried out. 相似文献
14.
A computational model describing the two-dimensional, turbulent mixing of a single jet of exhaust gas from aircraft engines with the ambient atmosphere is presented. The underlying assumptions and governing equations are examined and supplemented by a discussion of analytical solutions. As an application, the jet dynamics of a B747-400 aircraft engine in cruise and its dependence on key parameters is investigated in detail. The computer code for this dynamical model is computationally fast and can easily be coupled to complex chemical and microphysical models in order to perform comprehensive studies of atmospheric effects from aircraft exhaust emissions in the jet regime. 相似文献
15.
Based on the thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), a thermospheric-ionospheric data assimilation and forecast system is developed. Using this system, we estimated the oxygen ions, neutral temperature, wind, and composition by assimilating the simulated data from Formosa Satellite 3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) occultation electron density profiles to evaluate their effects on the ionospheric forecast. An ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation scheme and combined state and parameter estimation methods are used to estimate the unobserved parameters in the model. The statistical results show that the neutral and ion compositions are more effective than the neutral temperature and wind for improving the forecast of the ionospheric electron density, whose root mean square errors in the assimilation period decreased by approximately 40%, 30%, and 10% due to the estimations of the neutral composition, oxygen ions, and neutral temperature, respectively. Due to the different physical and chemical processes that these parameters primarily affect, their e-folding times differ greatly from longer than 12 h for neutral composition to approximately 6 h for oxygen ions and 3 h for neutral temperature. The effect of estimating the neutral composition on improving the ionospheric forecast is greater than that of estimating the oxygen ions, which can be also be seen in an actual data assimilation experiment. This indicates that the neutral composition is the most important thermospheric parameter in ionospheric data assimilations and forecasts. 相似文献
16.
Ekkehard Holzbecher 《水文研究》2001,15(12):2297-2304
Undoubtedly watersheds and their limiting groundwater divides are not steady but change. Nevertheless the temporal and spatial scales of the changes are seldom explored and rarely can be quantified. The Lake Stechlin region offers the exceptional chance to study the transient dynamics of catchments, the movement of subsurface water divides and their disappearance and reappearance. Based on long‐term data of surface water and groundwater levels a computer model delivers illustrative pictures of the dynamics of natural water bodies. A simple analytically derived criterion for the occurrence of groundwater divides shows remarkable coincidence with observations and with the output from the numerical model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
R. Eatock Taylor 《地震工程与结构动力学》1978,6(4):331-346
As a means towards an understanding of the structural dynamics of deepwater gravity platforms, the dynamic response of a linear two degree of freedom spring-mass-damper system is studied herein. The mathematical model represents dynamic interaction between structure and foundation. Particular attention is paid to the influence of wave force distribution. Transfer functions are obtained for the response to sinusoidal waves, and resonant magnification factors are plotted for a range of structural and loading parameters. It is concluded that the response even of this simple idealization is far from straightforward. 相似文献
18.
Hydrologic changes have a great impact on the long-term river morphology. The most common anthropic cause is the construction of dams, which often reduces both the discharge regime and sediment transport, producing a narrowing and degradation of the river bed. In this study we propose a simple, lumped morphodynamic model that describes fluvial cross-section dynamics consequent to changes in discharge and sediment transport induced by external factors. The model provides the temporal dynamics of the river width and bed quote. These dynamics result not to be trivial and can exhibit non monotonic behavior, with aggradations and degradations, and narrowing and widening. The model has been tested on real rivers using data obtained from field studies. The agreement between the outcomes and the data measured in the field works is always satisfactory. 相似文献
19.
This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed. 相似文献
20.
G.K. Korotaev 《Surveys in Geophysics》1997,18(6):567-618
The dynamics of a single vortex on a beta-plane is discussed in this paper. A barotropic, an equivalent barotropic, one-and-a half and two-layer models are considered. The momentum and energy balances are used to describe the evolution of a vortex. A quasi-stationary balance of the Rossby, Zhukovsky-Kutta forces and the force induced by Rossby-wave radiation, describes the dynamics of the barotropic vortex. A net Coriolis force occurs if the fluid is stratified. The difference between the dynamics of cyclones and anticyclones results directly from the Coriolis force acting on a single vortex in a stratified fluid.All vortices radiate Rossby waves in the quasigeostrophic approximation but intense anticyclones propagate steadily in a one-and-a half layer model. A critical amplitude that bounds radiating and steadily propagating anticyclones is found. Steady propagation of anticyclones in general is impossible in a two-layer fluid due to the radiation of a barotropic Rossby-wave. Some solutions of solitary wave type which are known for a two-layer model, survive owing to wave interference.A single vortex can extract energy from a Rossby wave if synchronism conditions are satisfied. The wave interference again plays a crucial role in this case. The wave interference also determines the energy exchange of vortices located at larger distances. If the distance between the vortices is shorter than the length of the radiated waves, modon may be formed due to a small energy loss.The unbounded monotonic variation of the planetary vorticity is a characteristic feature of a beta-plane approximation. As a result, a single vortex propagates up to a 'rest latitude' where it disappears. The evolution of a single barotropic vortex over bottom topography provides another example of a background vorticity distribution with a local extremum above hills (valleys) or ridges (troughs). Physics of its movement differs from a beta-plane case, but if a vortex lies over broad topography, equations are similar and the evolution of a vortex manifests the same typical features. Particularly, a cyclonic vortex tends to drift to the top of a hill or a ridge. An anticyclonic vortex, on the contrary, slides to the bottom of a valley or a trough.An interaction of a barotropic vortex with a broad mean flow is tractable qualitatively on the basis of previous results. Numerical examples illustrating absorption of a small vortex by a larger one and a vortex movement across the flow, are direct analogies of the vortex evolution over a hill and a ridge, respectively. At the same time, strong influence of strain drastically changes the vortex structure. 相似文献