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1.
The ground motion owing to the collapse of a large-scale cooling tower under strong earthquakes was appropriately predicted using a comprehensive approach. The predicted results can be used for the safety evaluation of nuclear-related facilities adjacent to the cooling tower as well as in the planning of nuclear power plant construction in China. In this study, a cooling tower–soil model was first developed based on a falling weight–soil model, which the authors verified by falling weight tests. Then the collapse process of a cooling tower was simulated, and the collapse-induced ground vibrations were assessed by using the proposed model. Finally, the ground motion, which was a combination of the earthquake-induced ground motion and the collapse-induced ground vibrations, was estimated based on the superposition principle of waves. It was found that the cooling tower may collapse under strong earthquakes with the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) in the range of 0.35–0.45 g in x (EW) and y (NS) directions, respectively. These PGAs are far beyond the PGA range of major earthquakes in the common seismic design in China. The types of the site geologies of towers can significantly affect the collapse-induced ground vibrations. For a typical hard soil consisting of strongly weathered sandy slate, moderate ground vibrations may occur in the considered region. The collapse-induced PGAs were in the range of 0.017–0.046 g for the observed points at distances of 350 m in radial direction. For a rock-like foundation, the collapse-induced radial PGAs may be as high as 0.08 g at distances of 350 m, indicating that the effect of the collapse-induced ground vibrations on the nuclear-related facilities should be seriously assessed in certain scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, Mw = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, MGR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (Mw ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (Mw = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (Mw = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, Mw = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
This is an attempt to analyze the current lithospheric stress pattern in the Baikal rift in terms of nonlinear dynamics as an open self-organizing system in order to gain more insights into the general laws of regional seismicity. According to the suggested approach, the stress pattern inferred from seismic moments of 70,000 MLH ≥ 2.0 events that occurred in the region between 1968 and 1994 is presented as a phase portrait in the phase spaces of the seismic moments. The obtained phase portrait of the system evolution fits well a scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation where stress bifurcations account for the frequency of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates probability of such a bifurcation (a catastrophe of stress), i.e., there is growing risk that M ≈ 7 events may happen in the region within a few years.  相似文献   

4.
Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤Mw≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (Mw=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (Mw=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.  相似文献   

5.
First frequency-dependent empirical scaling equations of pseudo-relative velocity spectral amplitudes (PSV) of strong earthquake ground motions in the former Yugoslavia were introduced in the mid-1990s by Lee and Trifunac (1990) [15]. This followed the development of the Fourier spectral amplitudes (FS) scaling equations by Lee and Trifunac (1993) [17] in terms of earthquake source parameters, and the region-specific frequency dependent attenuation function given by Lee and Trifunac (1992) [16]. More recently, a new frequency-dependent attenuation function was developed for central and eastern Serbia for earthquakes of intermediate and large magnitudes and for large epicentral distances—exceeding 300 km—suggested by Lee et al. (2016) [19] that occur in the Vrancea source region in Romania. In this paper we use this frequency-dependent attenuation function to develop empirical scaling equations for PSV spectral amplitudes in Serbia. These scaling equations will form a basis for macro- and micro-zoning earthquake hazard studies in Serbia.  相似文献   

6.
The single backscattering model was used to estimate total attenuation of coda waves (Qc) of local earthquakes recorded on eight seismological stations in the complex area of the western continental Croatia. We estimated Q0 and n, parameters of the frequency dependent coda-Q using the relation Qc = Q0fn. Lapse time dependence of these parameters was studied using a constant 30 s long time window that was slid along the coda of seismograms. Obtained Qc were distributed into classes according to their lapse time, tL. For tL = 20–50 s we estimated Q0 = 45–184 and n = 0.49–0.94, and for tL = 60–100 s we obtained Q0 = 119–316 and n = 0.37–0.82. There is a tendency of decrease of parameter n with increasing Q0, and vice versa. The rates of change of both Q0 and n seem to decrease for lapse times larger than 50–80 s, indicating an alteration in rock properties controlling coda attenuation at depths of about 100–160 km. A very good correlation was found between the frequency dependence parameter n and the Moho depths for lapse times of 50, 60 and 70 s.  相似文献   

7.
Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, Mw = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, Mw = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, Mw = 8.0, and Mw = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, Mw = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.  相似文献   

8.
In western India during the Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) on January 26, 2001, the Anjar City at ~30 km southwest of Bhuj experienced three types of damage scenario: severely damaged, less damaged and non-damaged. Similar damage patterns were also observed for the 1819 (Mw 7.8) and the 1956 (Mw 6.0) earthquakes. Microtremor array measurements were conducted in and around the Anjar city to examine the strength of soil structures and damage pattern. Significant differences are observed in frequencies and amplitudes in horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) using microtremor measurements. The severely- damaged site shows two peak amplitudes: 2.8 at 1.2 Hz; and 4.0 at 8.0 Hz. The less-damaged site also shows two amplitudes: 2.5 and 2.1 at 1.4 Hz; and 2.0 Hz, respectively. The non-damaged site, on the other hand, shows that the HVSR curves become almost flatter. Similar results for three types of damage scenario based on analyses of earthquake records are also observed for the study area. The microtremor array measurements has revealed shear wave velocity Vs≥400 m/s at 18 m depth in the non-damaged, at 40 m in the less-damaged and at 60 m depth in the severely-damaged sites. The site amplitudes and the Vs values show a good correlation with the soil characteristics and damage pattern, suggesting that strength of soil layers at varying depths is a dictating factor for the estimate of the earthquake risk evaluation of the area under study.  相似文献   

9.
We present a catalog of moment tensor (MT) solutions and moment magnitudes, Mw, for 119 shallow (h ≤ 40 km) earthquakes in Greece and its surrounding lands (34°N–42°N, 19°E–30°E) for the years 2006 and 2007, computed with the 1D Time-Domain Moment Tensor inversion method (TDMT_INV code of Dreger, 2003). Magnitudes range from 3.2 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.7. Green's functions (GF) have been pre-computed to build a library, for a number of velocity profiles applicable to the broader Aegean Sea region, to be used in the inversion of observed broad band waveforms (10–50 s). All MT solutions are the outcome of a long series of tests of different reported source locations and hypocenter depths. Quality factors have been assigned to each MT solution based on the number of stations used in the inversion and the goodness of fit between observed and synthetic waveforms. In general, the focal mechanisms are compatible with previous knowledge on the seismotectonics of the Aegean area. The new data provide evidence for strike-slip faulting along NW–SE trending structures at the lower part of Axios basin, close to the heavily industrialized, and presently subsiding, region of the city of Thessaloniki. Normal faulting along E–W trending planes is observed at the Strimon basin, and in Orfanou Gulf in northern Greece. A sequence of events in the east Aegean Sea close to the coastline with western Anatolia sheds light on an active structure bounding the north coastline of Psara–Chios Islands about 20–25 km in length exhibiting right lateral strike-slip faulting.  相似文献   

10.
In order to empirically obtain the scaling relationships for the high-frequency ground motion in the Western Alps (NW Italy), regressions are carried out on more than 7500 seismograms from 957 regional earthquakes. The waveforms were selected from the database of 6 three-component stations of the RSNI (Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy). The events, M W ranging between 1.2 and 4.8, were recorded within a hypocentral distance of 200 km during the time period: 1996–2001. The peak ground velocities are measured in selected narrow-frequency bands, between 0.5 and 14 Hz. Results are presented in terms of a regional attenuation function for the vertical ground motion, a set of vertical excitation terms at the reference station STV2 (hard-rock), and a set of site terms (vertical and horizontal), all relative to the vertical component of station STV2.The regional propagation of the ground motion is modeled after quantifying the expected duration of the seismic motion as a function of frequency and hypocentral distance. A simple functional form is used to take into account both the geometrical and the anelastic attenuation: a multi-variable grid search yielded a quality factor Q(f) = 310f 0.20, together with a quadri-linear geometrical spreading at low frequency. A simpler, bi-linear geometrical spreading seems to be more appropriate at higher frequencies (f > 1.0 Hz). Excitation terms are matched by using a Brune spectral model with variable, magnitude-dependent stress drop: at M w 4.8, we used Δσ = 50 MPa. A regional distance-independent attenuation parameter is obtained (κ0 = 0.012 s) by modelling the average spectral decay at high frequency of small earthquakes.In order to predict the absolute levels of ground shaking in the region, the excitation/attenuation model is used through the Random Vibration Theory (RVT) with a stochastic point-source model. The expected peak-ground accelerations (PGA) are compared with the ones derived by Ambraseys et al. (1996) for the Mediterranean region and by Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) for the Italian territory.  相似文献   

11.
Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (Mw3.5–Mw5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 6 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a Mw7.2 scenario earthquake.  相似文献   

12.
Sea ice is an important climate variable and is also an obstacle for marine operations in polar regions. We have developed a small and lightweight, digitally operated frequency-domain electromagnetic-induction (EM) system, a so-called EM bird, dedicated for measurements of sea ice thickness. It is 3.5 m long and weighs only 105 kg, and can therefore easily be shipped to remote places and operated from icebreakers and small helicopters. Here, we describe the technical design of the bird operating at two frequencies of f1 = 3.68 kHz and f2 = 112 kHz, and study its technical performance. On average, noise amounts to ± 8.5 ppm and ± 17.5 ppm for f1 and f2, respectively. Electrical drift amounts to 200 ppm/h and 2000 ppm/h for f1 and f2, during the first 0.5 h of operation. It is reduced by 75% after 2 h. Calibration of the Inphase and Quadrature ppm signals varies by 2 to 3%. A sensitivity study shows that all these signal variations do affect the accuracy of the ice thickness retrieval, but that it remains better than ± 0.1 m over level ice in most cases. This accuracy is also confirmed by means of comparisons of the helicopter EM data with other thickness measurements. The paper also presents the ice thickness retrieval from single-component Inphase data of f1.  相似文献   

13.
The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), which marks the boundary between Anatolia and the Eurasian plate, is one of the world's most seismically active structures. Although the eastern part of NAFZ has high seismic hazard, there is a lack of geodetic information about the present tectonics of this region. Even though many scientists would like to study this area, geographical and logistical problems make performing scientific research difficult. In order to investigate contemporary neotectonic deformation on the eastern NAFZ and in its neighborhood, a relatively dense Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring network was established in 2003. Geodetic observations were performed in three GPS campaigns in an area of 350 km × 200 km with 12-month intervals. In addition, 14 new GPS stations were measured far from the deforming area. Since this region includes the intersection of the NAFZ and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), deformation is complex and estimating seismic hazard is difficult. One important segment is the Yedisu segment and it has not broken since the 1784 earthquake. After the 1992 Erzincan and 2003 Pulumur earthquakes, the Coulomb stress loading on the Yedisu segment of the NAFZ has increased significantly, emphasizing the need to monitor this region. We computed the horizontal velocity field with respect to Eurasia and strain rates field as well. GPS-derived velocities relative to Eurasia are in the range of 16–24 mm/year, which are consistent with the regional tectonics. The principal strain rates were derived from the velocity field. Results show that strain is accumulating between the NAFZ and EAFZ along small secondary fault branches such as the Ovacik Fault (OF).  相似文献   

14.
The present work deals with 1D and 2D ground response analysis and liquefaction analysis of alluvial soil deposits from Kanpur region along Indo-Gangetic plains. Standard penetration tests and seismic down hole tests have been conducted at four locations namely IITK, Nankari village, Mandhana and Bithoor at 1.5 m interval up to a depth of 30 m below the ground surface to find the variation of penetration blows and the shear wave velocity along the depth. From the selected sites undisturbed as well as representative soil samples have been collected for detailed soil classification. The soil profiles from four sites have been considered for 1D and 2D ground response analysis by applying the free field motions of three Himalayan earthquakes namely Chamba earthquake (Mw—5.1), Chamoli earthquake (Mw—6.4) and Uttarkashi earthquake (Mw—6.5). An average value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) obtained from 1D and 2D analysis is considered for liquefaction analysis and post-liquefaction settlement. The excess pore water pressure ratio is greater than 0.8 at a depth of 24 m from ground surface for IITK, Nankari village, Bithoor sites. More than 50% of post liquefaction settlement is contributed by layers from 21–30 m for all sites. In general, the soil deposits in Kanpur region have silty sand and sand deposits and are prone to liquefaction hazards due to drastic decrease of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) at four chosen sites in Kanpur.  相似文献   

15.
In Ottawa, Canada, unusually high amplification ratios have recently been measured in clayey silts (called ‘Leda Clays’) at low levels of earthquake-induced ground shaking. However, the contribution of seismic Q, or material damping (ξ=1/2Q), to the overall ground motion at soft soil sites across the city is not well understood. This research investigates attenuation measurements in soft soils (Vs<250 m/s) for ongoing seismic hazard evaluation in the Ottawa area. The work focuses on in situ measurements of damping in two deep boreholes drilled into Leda Clay. To investigate the possibility of frequency-dependent dynamic properties of these materials at low strains, a new approach to the spectral ratio technique has been developed for the measurement of Qs in the field using a mono-frequency vibratory source (generating signals between 10 and 100 Hz), and two identical downhole 3-component geophones. Monofrequency signals also allowed for the measurement of dispersion (variation of velocity with frequency). Analysis of the data show that dynamic properties are, for the most part, independent of frequency in the homogenous silty soils, yielding negligible variation in shear wave velocity (<2 m/s) across the frequency test band, and small strain Qs's ranging from 170 to 200 (damping of 0.25–0.30%) over soil thickness intervals ranging from 10 to 60 m. At intervals within 20 m of the ground surface, laminated silt and clay beds of elevated porosity are found to have slight influence on the frequency dependence of damping for frequencies greater than 70 Hz (damping increase to 0.6%).  相似文献   

16.
In this paper, the total electron content (TEC) data from eight global positioning system (GPS) stations of the EUREF network, provided by IONOLAB (Turkey), were analyzed using discrete Fourier analysis to investigate the TEC variations over the Mediterranean before and during the strong earthquake of 12th October 2013, which occurred west of Crete, Greece. In accordance with the results of similar analyses in the area, the main conclusions of this study are the following: (a) TEC oscillations in a broad range of frequencies occur randomly over an area of several hundred km from the earthquake and (b) high frequency oscillations (f ⩾ 0.0003 Hz, periods T ⩽ 60 m) may point to the location of the earthquake with questionable accuracy. The fractal characteristics of the frequency distribution may point to the locus of the earthquake with higher accuracy. We conclude that the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) mechanism through acoustic or gravity waves could explain this phenomenology.  相似文献   

17.
《Journal of Geodynamics》2008,45(3-5):160-172
The December 26, 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam earthquake is one of the most disastrous earthquakes in Iran. QuickBird panchromatic and multispectral satellite imagery with 61 cm and 2.4 m ground resolution, respectively provide new insights into the surface rupturing process associated with this earthquake. The results indicate that this earthquake produced a 2–5 km-wide surface rupture zone with a complex geometric pattern. A 10-km-long surface rupture zone developed along the pre-existing Bam fault trace. Two additional surface rupture zones, each 2–5 km long, are oblique to the pre-existing Bam fault in angles of 20–35°. An analysis of geometric and geomorphic features also shows that movement on the Bam fault is mainly right-lateral motion with some compressional component. This interpretation is consistent with field investigations, analysis of aftershocks as well as teleseismic inversion. Therefore, we suggest that the 2003 Bam earthquake occurred on the Bam fault, and that the surface ruptures oblique to the Bam fault are caused by secondary faulting such as synthetic shears (Reidel shears). Our fault model for the Bam earthquake provides a new tectonic scenario for explaining complex surface deformations associated with the Bam earthquake.  相似文献   

18.
The analysis of seismic activity variations with space and time is a complex problem. Several statistical methods have been adopted to study these variations. One of the tasks that has attracted the attention of the seismological and statistical community is to explain seismicity patterns by statistical models and apply the results for earthquake prediction. Here the probability distribution of recurrence times as described by Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull probability distributions and the idea of conditional probability has been applied to predict the next great (Ms ≥ 6.0 and Ms ≥ 6.5) earthquake around Tehran (r ≤ 200 km). Conditional probability specifies the likelihood that a given earthquake will happen within a specified time. This likelihood is based on the information about past earthquake occurrences in the given region and the basic assumption that future seismic activity will follow the pattern of past activity. The rapid growth of Tehran to approximately 12 million inhabitants has resulted in a much more rapid increase in its vulnerability to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Several earthquakes affected this region in the past, mostly on the Mosha, Taleqan, Eyvankey and Garmsar faults. The estimated recurrence times for Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull distributions has been computed to be 66.64, 14.79, 26.88, 2.37, 67.58 and 80.47, respectively. Accordingly, one may expect that a large damaging earthquake may occur around Tehran approximately every 10 years.  相似文献   

19.
The strong earthquake (M = 7) that occurred in the Fucino basin (central Italy) on January 13, 1915 was followed by six earthquakes of M > 5.5 and several other shocks of M > 5 in the major seismic zones of the northern Apennines from 1916 to 1920. This seismicity pattern is consistent with the implications of the present tectonic setting in the study area, which suggests that strong decoupling earthquakes in the central Apennines cause a significant increase of tectonic load, and possibly of seismicity, in the northern Apennines. A numerical simulation, carried out by an elastic-viscous model, of the stress diffusion induced by the Fucino and successive largest earthquakes, shows that each of the above shocks occurred when the respective zone was reached by the highest values of the strain and strain rate perturbation triggered by the previous events. Furthermore, the computed strain regime at each earthquake site is consistent with the known faulting pattern. The results provide important insights into the physical mechanism that controls the interaction of seismic sources in the central and northern Apennines.  相似文献   

20.
On 6 April 2009 a Mw=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.  相似文献   

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