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1.
Prediction of daily suspended sediment load using wavelet and neurofuzzy combined model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
T. Rajaee Ph.D. S. A. Mirbagheri Ph.D. V. Nourani Ph.D. A. Alikhani Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2010,7(1):93-110
This study investigated the prediction of suspended sediment load in a gauging station in the USA by neuro-fuzzy, conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy as well as conventional sediment rating curve models. In the proposed wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy model, observed time series of river discharge and suspended sediment load were decomposed at different scales by wavelet analysis. Then, total effective time series of discharge and suspended sediment load were imposed as inputs to the neuro-fuzzy model for prediction of suspended sediment load in one day ahead. Results showed that the wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy model performance was better in prediction rather than the neuro-fuzzy and sediment rating curve models. The wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy model produced reasonable predictions for the extreme values. Furthermore, the cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this technique was closer to the actual data than the others one. Also, the model could be employed to simulate hysteresis phenomenon, while sediment rating curve method is incapable in this event. 相似文献
2.
根据1950—2010年水沙实测资料,采用统计分析方法,通过构建非线性响应模型,辨识了水沙变化主导驱动因子,定量评估了多因子对黄河上游头道拐水沙变化的贡献率.结果表明:头道拐1950—2010年多年平均径流量减少速率为2.23亿m3/a,多年平均输沙量减少速率为0.027亿t/a,1987—2010年径流泥沙减少趋势更为明显,同期输沙量减幅明显大于径流量减幅;1969—2010年气候因子和下垫面因子对头道拐站年径流模数和年输沙模数变化的贡献率均约为2:8,下垫面因子明显占主导地位,其中宁蒙灌区年引水量对年径流模数变化的贡献率最大,达到42%,龙羊峡和刘家峡等水库运用对年输沙模数变化的贡献率最大,达到34%.预计今后兰州以上径流变化和兰州至头道拐区间主要支流来沙变化两大自然因素将是头道拐水沙变化的主导因子;灌区引水和支流水土保持综合治理减沙对头道拐水沙变化的贡献率将居主导地位. 相似文献
3.
Erosion potential method (EPM) and Modified Pacific Southwest Interagency Committee (MPSIAC) are two empirical models for estimating soil erosion and sediment delivery. These models use a relatively simple formulation, but they are still applied in various areas with different environmental conditions. However, evaluation of their efficiency is challenging. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is investigating the performance of EPM and MPSIAC in estimating soil erosion and sediment yield using sediment rating curve (SRC) methods. Talar watershed in Iran was selected as the study area and suspended sediment load (SSL) of two Shirgah–Talar and Valikbon stations were used to assess the output of the models. Remote sensing and geographic information system were utilized in implementing the models. The estimated sediment yield values by the models were evaluated using the results of least square error regression and quantile regression (QR) SRC methods. Then, sediment yield values were obtained from 20-year discharge data (1992–2011). Despite the high uncertainty of QR results, the annual sediment delivery values of the models were achieved in an acceptable range. The most likely (with a probability of 0.5) average annual SSL values were between 713?×?103 and 840?×?103 ton for Shirgah–Talar station. Those values for Valikbon station were between 3142?×?101 and 3702?×?101. Moreover, the estimated average sediment yield in Shirgah–Talar station using MPSIAC and EPM were 591392 and 514054 ton/year, respectively. Those values for Valikbon station were 51881 and 27449 ton/year. Then, the results proved the better performance of MPSIAC in estimating SSL in the study area compared with EPM. 相似文献
4.
Unfortunately in developing countries, human activities without attention to the environmental aspects damage to nature. For example, construction of large dams dries wetlands in southwest of Iran. Also, construction of dams is a very important factor for morphological changes. The case study of this research is downstream of the Karkheh dam. This dam is the largest Earth dam in Iran and locates in southwest of Iran. It was constructed in 1999. Small sinuosity coefficient of zone near to dam has been illustrated by satellite images in 2002 and 2014. This subject shows instability of this part of reach; also, the results of Shulits equation illustrate that this part is instable. But, increasing of morphological characteristics (sinuosity coefficient, central angle, and relative radius) show that stability of this reach is increasing. Surveying confirm this matter and shows that severe erosion in upstream and sedimentation in downstream of reach is finishing. Also, it is observed that flow discharge reduced (?56 %) after construction of dam and average width of river reduced (?21 %) from 2002 to 2014. In the early years after the construction of the dam, sediment discharge reduced considerably (?14 %) from Pay-e-Pol to Abdol Khan hydrometric stations. Increasing of morphological characteristics (especially at zones near to dam) and decreasing changes of bed level (sedimentation and erosion) prove that effects of dam are overcoming on effects of other factors, and these effects are permanent in long term. 相似文献
5.
南水北调西线一期工程调水区所涉及的6条河流(泥曲、达曲、色曲、杜柯河、玛柯河、阿柯河)坝址处均无实测的径流资料,开展该地区的水文研究属于无资料水文预报问题(PUBs)。利用年径流量的变差系数Cv值、年际变化绝对比率P和不均匀系数α对坝址下游的朱倭、朱巴、足木足、绰斯甲4站的实测年径流的年际变化进行分析,计算结果为各坝址径流年际变差系数Cv为0.15~0.26,表明调水区的多年径流量变化不大;年际变化绝对比率P为1.88~3.00,其中朱倭站的径流年际变化最大,最大径流量是最小径流量的3倍,绰斯甲站的最大径流量是最小径流量的1.88倍,4站的径流变化都不剧烈;径流不均匀系数α为0.58~0.75,表明该流域径流量的年际变化较为均匀;利用水文比拟法对坝址处的径流进行了计算,并根据R/S分析法对坝址处径流序列的未来趋势进行了初步分析,各坝址处的年径流序列的赫斯特系数均大于0.5,说明各径流序列的未来趋势具有持续性,即未来趋势与历史呈正相关,6个调水坝址中只有扎洛和克柯处的径流未来是减少的,其余坝址处径流都是增加的,这样西线一期工程调水区的河流有利于水资源的可持续开发利用。 相似文献
6.
对长江上游主要控制站水沙量进行了统计分析。近期长江上游水沙变化特点主要表现为:与1990年前相比,1991-2002年宜昌站年均减少沙量约1.3亿t;金沙江屏山站年均增加沙量约0.35亿t,其占宜昌站的百分数由51.8%增加到71.9%;嘉陵江北碚站年均减少沙量约0.985亿t,占宜昌站的百分数由25.7%减小至9.1%。采用滑动平均法以及Spearman秩次相关检验和线性回归检验等方法,对屏山、北碚和宜昌等3站水沙变化趋势进行了分析,分析结果表明:宜昌站径流量无趋势性变化,但输沙量有减小趋势;北碚站水沙减小趋势均较为明显;屏山站径流量无趋势变化,但输沙量有一定的增大趋势。另外还对影响长江上游水沙变化的降水量、水土保持措施、水库拦沙以及人类活动增沙等主要因素进行了分析。 相似文献
7.
Hydrological modeling of typhoon-induced extreme storm runoffs from Shihmen watershed to reservoir, Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Typhoon-induced extreme storm runoffs often cause flood hazards. In this study, a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) was applied to Shihmen watershed located in Taiwan. Three typhoon-induced storm events, with return period ranging from 1 to 90 years, were used in case studies to characterize storm runoff. With a 5-year storm for model calibration, model parameters were carefully calibrated through the comparison between model simulated and observed flows at a stream gage station. The calibrated model was then verified for a 90-year storm and a 1-year storm event. Results indicate that the calibrated and verified HEC-HMS hydrological model is capable of providing satisfactory predictions of the typhoon-induced extreme storm runoff to support reservoir operation and flood hazard mitigation. Based on model simulations, typhoon-induced water table increases for different initial water volumes at Shihmen Reservoir was derived by adding storm-runoff volume to the reservoir’s initial elevation-volume rating curve. Water tables above the top elevation of the dam in the reservoir indicate the need for immediate water releases to avoid the risk of overflow over the dam. 相似文献
8.
自2000年以来,黄河中上游河道非汛期出现变清趋势,黄河呈现"枯水枯沙"的新水沙特征。本文依据黄河干、支流24个主要水文控制站1950-2016年实测水沙资料,采用数理统计法和趋势分析法,分析了60多年来黄河干、支流水沙变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:(1) 1950-2016年黄河干、支流各站年均径流量、年均输沙量和年均含沙量随时间总体呈减小趋势,其中2000-2016年(Ⅲ时段)各站年均输沙量和年均含沙量降幅最大。(2) 1950-2016年黄河中游流域干、支流各站年均中数粒径随时间呈减小趋势,黄河水沙状况枯丰期差异显著,但随时间呈减弱趋势。(3)黄河水沙变化是自然因素和人类活动综合作用的结果,近年来黄河中游河道变清是泥沙锐减造成的,其中水保措施、水库工程、河道采砂及流域调水调沙引水引沙是主因,且人类活动影响的比重逐渐增大。 相似文献
9.
水库拦沙是金沙江下游沙量减小的主要原因,对三峡水库的入库水沙条件产生了重要影响。为了系统掌握金沙江流域水库拦沙情况,基于1956年以来流域内水库及实测水沙资料,采用经验公式、典型调查以及输沙平衡原理相结合的方法,对近60年不同阶段金沙江中下游的水库拦沙情况以及水库建设对金沙江流域减沙贡献权重进行了定量研究。结果表明:1956-1990年、1991-2005年和2006-2015年水库拦沙对屏山站的减沙权重分别为0.3%、48%和83%,可见水库拦沙作用逐步增强;1956-2015年,金沙江流域水库年均拦沙0.310亿t,其中大型水库拦沙量占总拦沙量的89%,尤其是2011年以来,随着金沙江中下游以及雅砻江梯级水库群的陆续建成,流域内水库群年均拦沙量达1.92亿t,对屏山站同期年均输沙量的减少权重在90%以上。 相似文献
10.
采用实测资料分析和理论探讨的方法,研究了黄河口尾闾河道平滩流量与水沙过程的响应关系。研究结果表明:清水沟流路行河以来,尾闾河道平滩流量由1976年的6000m3/s左右减少至21世纪初的3000m3/s左右。尾闾河道平滩流量具有双重记忆效应,从短期而言,对近2年水沙过程记忆最强,从长期而言,对近6年水沙过程记忆深刻。黄河口来水量越大,汛期来沙系数越小,尾闾河道平滩流量就越大,反之,尾闾河道平滩流量就越小。尾闾河道平滩流量维持在4000m3/s,黄河口年来水量必须大于223亿m3,汛期来水量大于141亿m3,汛期来沙系数控制在0.03左右;小浪底水库调水调沙需要连续运用且运行年限大于5~6年,才能起到较好的效果;水量统一调度管理中应确定汛期利津站日均流量的最小值,以维持尾闾河道一定的平滩流量。 相似文献
11.
新疆降水在气候转型中的信号反应 总被引：53，自引：21，他引：32
针对气候转型科学问题的提出,根据新疆61处国家水文气象观测站点的资料,通过5a滑动平均、模比系数差积曲线、线性趋势等方法对新疆降水分析计算.结果显示,近50a来新疆年降水量总体呈增加的变化趋势,全疆年降水量平均增幅0.67mm·a-1,天山山区增幅最大,达1.0～2.8mm·a-1.由减少转为增加变化的时间大多出现于1987年前后,以此为界,从1987年起气候转向暖湿的强劲信号不仅反映在新疆的天山西部地区,而且在全疆也有所反映,且南疆强于北疆,西部多于东部. 相似文献
12.
S. Isik 《Earth Science Informatics》2013,6(2):87-98
Estimations of annual suspended sediment loads are required for various types of water resources studies. Often estimation of the sediment load is needed for ungauged watersheds. Regionalization methods provide a practical solution to solve such problems. The purpose of this study is to classify suspended sediment yields in watersheds into homogeneous regions in order to identify their regional sediment rating curves. This study has been carried out for suspended sediment stations on 26 main basins of Turkey. Long term-scale suspended sediment rating curves of 115 gauging stations in Turkey were classified using cluster analysis on the basis of hydrological homogeneity. An agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm is used so that stations from different geographical locations are considered in the same cluster independently of their geographical location. 115 gauging stations were clustered into 4 different homogenous regions and the regional suspended sediment rating curve was developed for each region. The performance efficiencies of the developed regional rating curves were evaluated for 8 test stations and compared to the performances of rating curves in test sites. A regionalization model is developed for estimating suspended sediment rating curves for ungauged sites in Turkey. The developed regional rating curve models result in very close performances to those of their corresponding site rating curves. 相似文献
13.
Abdellatif Ahbari Laila Stour Ali Agoumi Laila Oualkacha 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(19):591
The negligence of the cumulative deposit volume over years may lead to uselessness of a pre-established and efficient reservoir management method. In this objective, this paper tries to introduce a simple approach to forecast annually the volume lost from the reservoir capacity. The suggested approach employs the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the Dendy and Bolton (J Soil Water Conserv 31:264–266, 1976) methods, in addition to the sediment consolidation process. This process permits to follow the evolution of sediment deposit volume throughout the years. For application, we selected the reservoir of Bin El Ouidane (Morocco), for which we have tried to fit a linear regression between sediment yield and observed settling volumes. The optimization process was assured by the algorithm genetic and the OptQuest methods. The results show a high significant (R2?=?0.9513, RMSE?=?8.5428, and p value?=?0.0009) linear regression between cumulative sediment yield volume and accumulated measured lost volume from the reservoir of Bin El Ouidane. The use of a linear relation is justified by the fact that all nonlinear regressions in long term are composed of multiple linear regressions in short term. Nevertheless, this method can become more efficient, and confirmed for real forecasting applications by performing modifications essentially related to in situ measures of different variables. Finally, and considering its simplicity regarding input data and application, the proposed approach converges to efficient results. Therefore, and after validation in other reservoirs, this method can be used to forecast annual reservoir settling at short term. 相似文献
14.
Estimating suspended sediment yield, sedimentation controls and impacts in the Mellah Catchment of Northern Algeria 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper is an assessment of the suspended sediment yield in the Mellah Catchment of northern Algeria. We use discharge–sediment load relationships to explore the variability of water discharge and sediment load, and to investigate the impact of geomorphic factors disturbance on erosion and sedimentation. Suspended sediment load was analyzed in the Mellah Catchment (550 km²) which was controlled by a gauging station to measure discharge and sediment transport. The relations between daily mean sediment concentration and daily mean water discharge were analyzed to develop sediment rating curves. For storms with no water samples, a sediment rating curve was developed. The technique involves stratification of data into discharge-based classes, the mean of which are used to fit a rating curve according to single flow data and season to provide various rating relationships. The mean annual sediment yield during the 24 years of the study period was 562 T km?2 in the Mellah Catchment. This drainage basin had high rainfall and runoff, the erosion was high. The high sediment yield in the Mellah basin could be explained by a high percentage of sparse grassland and cultivation developed on shallow marly silty-clayey soils with steep slopes often exceeding 12%. Almost all suspended sediment loads are transported during storm events that mainly occur in the winter and spring heavy and medium downpours. The scarceness of these events leads to a very large interseasonal variability of the wadi sediment fluxes. The negative impacts of this enhanced sediment mobility are directly felt in the western part of the basin which shows many mass movements, bank and gully erosion because cultivated areas are often bared during autumnal brief flash floods and furrowed downslope during the winter season. 相似文献
15.
岩石三轴强度包络线通常为非线性,通过线性回归法（LRM）获得的抗剪强度参数对围压的变化具有很高的敏感性。为使 LRM能够考虑围压对抗剪强度参数估计的影响,定义了岩石三轴强度围压效应系数,构造一个指数函数表示该系数与围压的关系,并将其引入到 LRM 的修正中,提出考虑围压效应的线性回归分析法（CCPE-LRM）。同时,提出了CCPE-LRM 的合理性检验方法,并定义了距离系数作为指标来表征抗剪强度参数估计值与参数实际值的差异。通过以公开发表文献中多种类型岩石的三轴强度数据为例进行验证分析,结果显示各种岩石的距离系数均较小,CCPE-LRM 获得的抗剪强度包络线紧贴摩尔圆,且近似相切状态。表明通过CCPE-LRM 获得的抗剪强度包络线在一定程度上可以代替理想抗剪强度包络线,该方法估计的抗剪强度参数与理论抗剪强度参数的一致性较高,证明CCPE-LRM 具有较好的适用性。 相似文献
16.
A hydrometric, hydrochemical and environmental isotopic study was conducted to identify the source and origin of observed springs on the foot of the hillock abutting the left flank of the Gollaleru earthen dam, Nandyal, Andhra Pradesh, India. Water samples (springs, reservoir water and groundwater) in and around the dam area were collected and analyzed for environmental isotopes (\(\updelta ^{18}\!\hbox {O}\), \(\updelta ^{2}\hbox {H}\) and \(^{3}\hbox {H}\)) and hydrochemistry. Reservoir level, spring discharges and physico-chemical parameters (temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, etc.) were monitored in-situ. Isotopic results indicated that the source of springs is from the Owk reservoir and groundwater contribution to the springs is insignificant. Based on hydrometric observations, it is inferred that the springs might be originated from the reservoir level of 209 m amsl. It is found that the lower spring discharges were derived from diffuse sources (seepage) which could be a mixture of reservoir water and the groundwater, while the relatively higher spring discharges were resulted from concentrated sources (leakage) from the reservoir. Thus, the study portraits the usefulness of isotope techniques in understanding the dam seepage/leakage related problems. 相似文献
17.
King Talal Dam (KTD) watershed is the most important one in Jordan. At its outlet lies the KTD (80 MCM capacity) which serves
irrigation purposes in the Jordan Valley. However, the dam suffers from accelerated annual sedimentation. Therefore, this
study is directed to assess the erosion risk over the watershed, and to simulate actual annual sediment yield at the dam in
order to devise the appropriate conservation practices. Generalized assessment was first conducted over the watershed on the
basis of drainage texture, rainfall erosion index (R), and the ratio p2/P. As a result, the watershed is divided into zones of severe, high (gullying), high (overland flow) and low erosion risk.
Sediment yield at the dam was evaluated by a simulation model. For model validation the simulation results were compared to
the measured values over 12 years period, and a good agreement was obtained in some of the years. The simulation results allow
us to assess the application of two practical conservation practices: terracing and plantation of trees.
Received: 18 November 1997 · Accepted: 18 May 1998 相似文献
18.
运用小波变换的方法研究了长江流域干流站(屏山站、宜昌站、大通站与汉口站)以及位于支流嘉陵江流域的北碚站近40年来月均流量与输沙率,研究认为:(1)水利工程(本文主要指水库)对下游河道输沙率的影响远远大于对流量的影响;(2)葛洲坝是低水头径流式发电站,对下游流量变化影响不大,虽然在建库初期对输沙率有一定影响,导致下游河床下切,但远未达到使输沙率固有的1年周期受到影响的程度;(3)三峡大坝的建设已经对下游输沙率产生严重影响,使其固有的1年周期消失,但三峡大坝下游河道输沙率对这种影响的响应与距三峡大坝的距离成反比,即愈往下游,输沙率受三峡大坝的影响愈小;(4)输沙率变化对水利工程影响的敏感程度受流域尺度的影响,流域尺度越大,其反应就愈迟钝,反之亦然。 相似文献
19.
岩溶地下河流域地下水资源评价——以湖南湘西大龙洞为例 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
采用降水入渗系数法和径流模数法,计算得到天然资源量和可开采资源量等。该方法可根据不同计算块段的水文地质条件赋予不同参数,结果更接近实际;通过水文分析法,求得不同降水频率年份的径流量和天然资源量,认为2003水文年为偏枯年。统计法求得在天然和建库条件下的可采资源量。而用动态分析法,计算了可采资源量和天然调蓄量,认为大旱年份系统天然调蓄量仍小于估测地下库容。上述不同方法计算得到的结果,特别是可采资源量,可靠程度较高,可比性强,为拟建水库设计提供了科学依据。 相似文献
20.
本文提出了一种既能反映裂隙岩体的渗透特性,又相对准确的确定裂隙岩体渗透张量的方法。首先通过裂隙在空间展布状况的测量,用统计学方法初步确定裂隙岩体的渗透张量,获得渗透主值及主方向,然后根据野外压水试验得到的岩体透水率,利用巴布什金公式计算各试段岩体的渗透系数,求出修正系数,从而得到研究区裂隙岩体的修正渗透张量。并运用上述方法对蒲石河抽水蓄能电站上水库坝址区裂隙岩体的渗透张量进行了计算。结果表明,该方法能较好地刻画裂隙岩体渗透性的各向异性特征,可为岩体渗透性分区及防渗帷幕的优化提供科学依据。 相似文献