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1.
An analysis of the field scaling power spectrum yields useful information about the source distribution, but it is uncertain whether deterministic, random, fractal or mixed approaches have to be used for the interpretation. To this end, the scaling properties of potential field spectra are analysed for a number of different source models of geological interest. Besides the models of Naidu (purely random sources) and Spector and Grant (gross block statistical ensembles) we consider other types of density and magnetization distributions with spectral exponents in the fractal range, such as a single homogeneous body with a random white source distribution. Spectral slopes in the fractal range are obtained.
We also study the effects of important natural sources, such as salt domes and sedimentary basins, representing them with simple Gaussians or combinations of Gaussian signals. The same spectral slopes as for gravity signals generated by 3-D fractal source distributions are found for them. Hence the power law decay of the field is not a characteristic only of fractal source models.
If a 3-D fractal source distribution is assumed a priori , a way of verifying the goodness of the model is to examine the whitened field at source level. The probability that the whitened field derives from a random white population is estimated for synthetic and real anomalies by applying the usual statistical tests.  相似文献   

2.
Increased accuracy in measuring temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field allow inprinciple the use of gravity observations to deduce subsurface water-mass changes. This canbe with respect to a small area, or as a larger spatial average of water mass change usinggravity observations from low-altitude satellites, such as the forthcoming GRACE mission.At both scales, there is a need to validate gravity-based estimates against field recordings ofactual subsurface water-mass variations. In practice, this could prove difficult because thespatial integral of all water-storage change components can be subject to considerable fieldmeasurement error. An alternative approach to the validation process is proposed by whichsuitable geological formations are utilized as giant weighing devices to directly measure area-integratedwater-mass changes. The existence of such natural geological weighing lysimetersis demonstrated using observations from a replicated experimental site in New Zealand. Sitesof this type could be used to verify water-storage change estimates derived from sensitiveground surface gravity instrumentation. In addition, geological lysimeters could be used tomake local checks on the accuracy of any estimated regional water-mass time series, whichis proposed for satellite calibration. The land area weighed by a geological lysimeter increaseswith formation depth and it is speculated that recordings made at oil well depth may allowdirect monitoring of subsurface water mass changes at the regional scale.  相似文献   

3.
The weights of evidence modeling (WEM) for binary patterns is extended to take account of general categorical variables. The extension makes it possible to use the weights of evidence model in estimating the conditional probability distributions of metal grades. First, the target feature is converted into a set of binary target indicators. Second, the posterior probabilities are estimated for each of the target categories. Third, the estimates are combined to yield the posterior probability distribution of the target feature. Finally, the pseudometal estimates are derived from the probability distribution. The metal grade estimates are prefixed with pseudo, because the estimates are created from indirect evidence (explanatory variables). The pseudo-estimates provide a unique quantitative means to the delineation of exploration targets. This advantage reduces the ambiguities of target selection based solely on probability estimates. In order to use the generalized WEM, continuous geoscience attributes must be converted into categorical variables by means of optimal segmentation based on the target attribute of interest. The segmentation may be viewed as a process of defining evidence of the target feature. The extended weights of evidence model is demonstrated on a case study to select gold targets of Carlin type. The dataset used in the modeling includes apparent resistivity fields, soil geochemical samples, lithological and alteration information, and structural data.  相似文献   

4.
《Basin Research》2018,30(4):766-782
This paper proposes a new methodology to improve the location of potential karstified areas by gravity inversion of a 3D geological model. A geological 3D model is built from surface observations, 2D seismic reflection profiles and well data. The reliability of this geological 3D model obtained from integration, interpretation and interpolation of such data is first tested against the structural consistency of the model. Its theoretical gravimetric response is compared to gravity field during the forward problem in order to evaluate the validity/robustness of the geological model. The coherency between the gravity field and the gravimetric response is tested. The litho‐inversion modelling quantifies the distribution of rock density in a probabilistic way, taking into account the geology and physical properties of rocks, while respecting the geological structures represented in the 3D model. The result of the inversion process provides a density distribution within carbonate formations that can be discussed in term of karstification distribution. Thus, lower densities correlate with areas that are strongly karstified. Conversely, higher than mean densities are found in carbonate formations mostly located under marly and impervious formations, preserving carbonate from karstification and paleokarstification.  相似文献   

5.
Volunteered geographic information (VGI) contains valuable field observations that represent the spatial distribution of geographic phenomena. As such, it has the potential to provide regularly updated low-cost field samples for predictively mapping the spatial variations of geographic phenomena. The predictive mapping of geographic phenomena often requires representative samples for high mapping accuracy, but samples consisting of VGI observations are often not representative as they concentrate on specific geographic areas (i.e. spatial bias) due to the opportunistic nature of voluntary observation efforts. In this article, we propose a representativeness-directed approach to mitigate spatial bias in VGI for predictive mapping. The proposed approach defines and quantifies sample representativeness by comparing the probability distributions of sample locations and the mapping area in the environmental covariate space. Spatial bias is mitigated by weighting the sample locations to maximize their representativeness. The approach is evaluated using species habit suitability mapping as a case study. The results show that the accuracy of predictive mapping using weighted sample locations is higher than using unweighted sample locations. A positive relationship between sample representativeness and mapping accuracy is also observed, suggesting that sample representativeness is a valid indicator of predictive mapping accuracy. This approach mitigates spatial bias in VGI to improve predictive mapping accuracy.  相似文献   

6.
《Basin Research》2018,30(4):730-745
We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process‐based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a Bayesian inverse problem, and propose to characterise the posterior probability distribution of the geological quantities of interest by using a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter, an estimation method which linearly and sequentially conditions realisations of the system state to data. A test case involving synthetic data is used to assess the performance of the proposed estimation method, and to compare it with similar approaches. We further apply the method to a more realistic test case, involving real well data from the Colville foreland basin, North Slope, Alaska.  相似文献   

7.
Summary. The angular probability distribution generated by adding a set of randomly oriented vectors to a set of constant parallel vectors has been studied. If one random vector of constant length is added to each constant vector, the resultant angular probability distribution departs widely from the distribution used by Fisher as the basis for palaeo-magnetic analysis. However, if n random vectors of equal length are added to each constant vector and if n > 6, the resulting angular probability distribution is nearly identical to that proposed by Fisher over most of the range of angular dispersions encountered in palaeo-magnetic investigations. Equations are developed from which the mean intensity of random magnetization can be calculated, given the mean total intensity and the angular dispersion. These parameters, in turn, are related to the ratio of random to non-random magnetization for each ferromagnetic mineral grain in a rock specimen.  相似文献   

8.
Quantitative mineral resource assessments used by the United States Geological Survey are based on deposit models. These assessments consist of three parts: (1) selecting appropriate deposit models and delineating on maps areas permissive for each type of deposit; (2) constructing a grade-tonnage model for each deposit model; and (3) estimating the number of undiscovered deposits of each type. In this article, I focus on the estimation of undiscovered deposits using two methods: the deposit density method and the target counting method.In the deposit density method, estimates are made by analogy with well-explored areas that are geologically similar to the study area and that contain a known density of deposits per unit area. The deposit density method is useful for regions where there is little or no data. This method was used to estimate undiscovered low-sulfide gold-quartz vein deposits in Venezuela.Estimates can also be made by counting targets such as mineral occurrences, geophysical or geochemical anomalies, or exploration plays and by assigning to each target a probability that it represents an undiscovered deposit that is a member of the grade-tonnage distribution. This method is useful in areas where detailed geological, geophysical, geochemical, and mineral occurrence data exist. Using this method, porphyry copper-gold deposits were estimated in Puerto Rico.  相似文献   

9.
In this communication the 1-D steady-state heat conduction problem is solved in a stochastic framework incorporating uncertainties in the depth-dependent thermal conductivity. For this purpose, a new approach to the perturbation method, an expansion series method, which allows for the incorporation of a large variance in the controlling parameters, has been used. This method helps in avoiding assumptions on the probability distribution of the parameter and instead uses information pertaining to the mean and spatial correlation structure. This information is easily available in most geological situations and hence the thermal conductivity is assumed to have a Gaussian coloured noise correlation structure. With this information the stochastic heat conduction equation in equilibrium is solved and analytical expressions for the first two moments, that is, the mean and variance of the temperature field, are obtained. The expression for variance shows that it is highly dependent on the coefficient of variability of thermal conductivity, on the correlation length scale and on the depth. The methodology developed has been applied to quantify the steady-state geotherms, along with their associated error bounds, on a standard crustal model.  相似文献   

10.
Summary. Ordered-value plotting (probability plotting, Q-Q plotting, etc.) is well known for its utility as a diagnostic technique with data samples on the line. It can be used to give a visual indication of goodness of fit (sometimes as a prerequisite to a more formal statistical analysis), to provide quick graphical estimates of parameters, and to disclose the presence of outliers and give a visual assessment of their import. Following a résumé of plotting procedures for distributions on the line such as normal and exponential, three procedures are given for use with spherical data assumed to follow a Fisher distribution. These are illustrated by application to two palaeomagnetic data samples.  相似文献   

11.
A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained.The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels.  相似文献   

12.
In the context of the problem reflecting the geoecological assessment of the territory of Bratsk, we examine the geodynamical block relating to the study of natural-technogenic geological processes. Fields observations (from the summer of 2003–2004) are invoked to describe the forms of manifestation of erosion, suffusion, gravitational, Aeolian and abrasion processes, the natural and technogenic factors that are responsible for their occurrence, and the type and regime of development. An analysis is made of their interrelationship, and of the influence of the geological environment on the character of their distribution.  相似文献   

13.
Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.  相似文献   

14.
We investigate the effect that uneven sampling of the environmental gradient has on transfer-function performance using simulated community data. We find that cross-validated estimates of the root mean squared error of prediction can be strongly biased if the observations are very unevenly distributed along the environmental gradient. This biased occurs because species optima are more precisely known (and more analogues are available) in the part of the gradient with most observations, hence estimates are most precise here, and compensate for the less precise estimates in the less well sampled parts of the gradient. We find that weighted averaging and the modern analogue technique are more sensitive to this problem than maximum likelihood, and suggest a way to remove the bias via a segment-wise RMSEP procedure.  相似文献   

15.
The probability of occurrence of natural resources, such as petroleum deposits, can be assessed by a combination of multivariate statistical and geostatistical techniques. The area of study is partitioned into regions that are as homogeneous as possible internally while simultaneously as distinct as possible. Fisher's discriminant criterion is used to select geological variables that best distinguish productive from nonproductive localities, based on a sample of previously drilled exploratory wells. On the basis of these geological variables, each wildcat well is assigned to the production class (dry or producer in the two-class case) for which the Mahalanobis' distance from the observation to the class centroid is a minimum. Universal kriging is used to interpolate values of the Mahalanobis' distances to all locations not yet drilled. The probability that an undrilled locality belongs to the productive class can be found, using the kriging estimation variances to assess the probability of misclassification. Finally, Bayes' relationship can be used to determine the probability that an undrilled location will be a discovery, regardless of the production class in which it is placed. The method is illustrated with a study of oil prospects in the Lansing/Kansas City interval of western Kansas, using geological variables derived from well logs.  相似文献   

16.
The acquisition of a freezing remanent magnetization (FRM) has been studied in controlled magnetic and thermal environments by successive freezing and thawing (−18 to +20°C) of samples of natural sediments from a frost polygon near Ny Ålesund, Spitsbergen. Successive freeze-thaw cycles cause a significant decrease in the intensity of the initially induced shock remanent magnetization (SRM), associated with directional trends towards the ambient magnetic field direction during the freezing phase. A slow increase in intensity commences after seven to 10 freeze-thaw cycles. The acquisition of a FRM in samples carrying an isothermal remanent magnetization shows a significantly smaller reduction in intensity and only minor directional variations. This result indicates that only a fraction of the magnetic grains in a natural sediment contributes to the natural remanent magnetization. Insignificant changes in lengths and directions of the principal susceptibility ellipsoid axes also indicate that magnetic fabric and remanent magnetization are carried by partly different populations of magnetic grains.
The acquisition of a FRM in nature has yet to be explored. If such a process is confirmed, however, it has the potential for obtaining age estimates of ancient thaw depths and for providing insights into material transport processes in frost polygons.  相似文献   

17.

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

  相似文献   

18.
Flowing wells extracted from the Ministry of Ontario Environment and Energy (MOEE) water well data set from the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) area, Ontario, Canada, were treated as training point set to evaluate the potential distribution of artesian aquifers and their spatial associations with other geological and topological features in the study area. Evidential layers of geological and topographical features were constructed on the basis of the digital elevation model (DEM) and a geological map using GIS buffering functions in conjunction with weights of evidence method. It has been demonstrated that the locations of the flowing wells in the Oak Ridges Moraine area are associated spatially with the distances, (a) 500–5000 m from the oak ridges moraine deposits, (b) 500–4000 m from thick drift layer delineated on the drift thickness map created from water well data, and (c) 1500–2500 m from steep slope zones with slope above 8 degree calculated from a DEM. Applying a combination of these conditions can reduce the predicting target areas of having flowing wells by two thirds. Outcomes of this research are important both because the impact of the results on understanding of characteristics of aquifers and their relationships with other geological and topographical features and because it generates a probability map showing the potential location of artesian aquifers in the ORM area. In addition, the methodologies used in the paper will be applicable for modeling the distributions of other types of objects such as surface water bodies and low flow of streams in a watershed context in the study area.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
HUANG Song 《地理学报》2010,20(3):357-374
The geological heritage protection and its development at home and abroad reflect the progress in the aspect from the single protection to the coordination between protection and exploitation. The geopark established by UNESCO has closely combined the protection of geological heritages with the promotion of sustainable development of local economy, which has become the best way to protect geological heritages. The geological heritages in Xinjiang, China, are characterized by their large quantity, rich variety and high grade. The complicated geologic-geomorphic environment in Xinjiang contributes to the creation of various geological heritage types and their spatial distribution, and at the same time makes them under control. The main types of the geological heritages in Xinjiang are the geologic- geomorphic landscapes and the water landscapes. The spatial distribution can be divided into five geological heritage districts: Altay, Junggar, Tianshan, Tarim and Kunlun-Altun, among which Tianshan and Kunlun-Altun are most important. Based on the first systematic investigation of the geological heritages in Xinjiang, it is confirmed that the insufficient coordination between protection and exploitation is the primary cause for the backward situation in the geological heritage protection. To solve the problem, this paper proposes 6 major protection steps—from determining the protection types, the protection forms, the protection modes, the protection grades, the protection sequences to determining the protection zones, brings forward the idea of optimal-selection which integrates geoparks with geological heritage protection areas and other protection areas as well as 5 corresponding modes, and makes a protection and exploitation reserve list for 209 important geological heritages in Xinjiang.  相似文献   

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