共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Hittelman Allen M. Lockridge Patricia A. Whiteside Lowell S. Lander James F. 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):315-338
The primary use of the natural hazards data archived at the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics (WDC for SEG) is for the mitigation of future disasters. Among the responsibilities of NGDC/WDC for SEG is archiving and disseminating hazards data to city planners, educators, engineers and others engaged in mitigation efforts (approximately 150,000 users per week on our web site). Therefore, it is the purpose of this paper to educate the hazards' community about some of the limitations of these data. It is hoped that enlightened users would have a greater appreciation of data errors and possible sources of misinterpretation of the data.Personnel at NGDC/WDC for SEG are in a unique position to discuss the limitations of hazards data since we compile data from original and secondary sources. We are also in direct contact with the data users and know the applications that they make of hazard data, and the misjudgments that often occur when data limitations are not known.Most hazard catalogs cover periods of less than 200 years and are reasonably complete and accurate for only the past 20 to 50 years. Such catalogs are not sufficient to investigate long term hazard variations. Earthquake, tsunami, and volcano data catalogs, acquired and integrated at NGDC/WDC for SEG, illustrate artificial long-term variations created by cultural and scientific reporting changes, which can introduce unanticipated non-random variations into the catalogs. Inconsistencies are often related to changes in the way magnitudes are calculated, evolving network equipment, and network discontinuities of operation and personnel, among other error sources.Before statistical hazard studies can be done, catalogs need to be clearly understood to identify systematic patterns of an observational nature. 相似文献
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A tsunami catalogue for Central America is compiledcontaining 49 tsunamis for the period 1539–1996,thirty seven of them are in the Pacific and twelve inthe Caribbean. The number of known tsunamis increaseddramatically after the middle of the nineteenth century,since 43 events occurred between 1850 and 1996. This isprobably a consequence of the lack of populationliving near the coast in earlier times.The preliminary regionalization of the earthquakessources related to reported tsunamis shows that, inthe Pacific, most events were generated by theCocos-Caribbean Subduction Zone (CO-CA). At theCaribbean side, 5 events are related with the NorthAmerican-Caribbean Plate Boundary (NA-CA) and 7 withthe North Panama Deformed Belt (NPDB).There are ten local tsunamis with a specific damagereport, seven in the Pacific and the rest in theCaribbean. The total number of casualties due to localtsunamis is less than 455 but this number could behigher. The damages reported range from coastal andship damage to destruction of small towns, and theredoes not exist a quantification of them.A preliminary empirical estimation of tsunami hazardindicates that 43% of the large earthquakes (Ms 7.0) along the Pacific Coast of Central America and100% along the Caribbean, generate tsunamis. On thePacific, the Guatemala–Nicaragua coastal segment hasa 32% probability of generating tsunamis after largeearthquakes while the probability is 67% for theCosta Rica–Panama segment. Sixty population centers onthe Pacific Coast and 44 on the Caribbean are exposedto the impact of tsunamis. This estimation alsosuggests that areas with higher tsunami potential inthe Pacific are the coasts from Nicaragua to Guatemalaand Central Costa Rica; on the Caribbean side, Golfode Honduras Zone and the coasts of Panama and CostaRica have major hazard. Earthquakes of magnitudelarger than 7 with epicenters offshore or onshore(close to the coastline) could trigger tsunamis thatwould impact those zones. 相似文献
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Geomagnetic Hazards to Conducting Networks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
D. H. Boteler 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(2-3):537-561
Geomagnetic disturbances can disrupt the operation of conductingnetworks, such as power systems, pipelines and communication cables. In power systems,geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flow to ground through power transformers,disrupting their operation and causing transformer heating, increased reactive power demand,and generating harmonics that can cause relay misoperation. In extreme cases these effectscan lead to power blackouts such as occurred on the Hydro-Québec system during a geomagneticstorm in March 1989 leaving 6 million people without power for 9 hours.Geomagnetic disturbances are the result of eruptions on theSun that send high energy particles streaming out into space. When these particles reach theEarth they interact with the magnetic field, generating currents that flow down into the ionosphere.The most intense currents are associated with the aurora and occur in an east-west bandacross Canada. It is the magnetic field produced by these ionospheric currents that is seen on theground as a magnetic disturbance.Prevention of geomagnetic effects on power systems hasfocussed on blocking the flow of GIC in the system. However, such measures are expensive andmany utilities rely on forecasts of geomagnetic activity to help them operate during disturbances.The Canadian Geomagnetic Forecast Service, operated by Natural Resources Canada,has been in operation since 1974 and now provides long term and short term forecasts for threelatitude regions of Canada.Research is needed on all aspects of the problem; from newinformation about solar eruptions for improving forecasting services; to understanding systemresponse to disturbances. Research on geomagnetic disturbances is conducted by the CanadianGeomagnetic Forecasting Centre and a number of active groups at Canadian universities; whileresearch on geomagnetic effects is conducted by affected industries, often in collaborationwith the forecasting centre. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Metro systems perform a significant function for millions of ridership worldwide as urban passengers rely on a secure, reliable, and accessible underground transportation way for... 相似文献
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祁连山地处青藏高原北部边缘的甘肃、青海两省交界处,是我国西北地区的重要生态屏障和水源涵养地。祁连山山高谷深、地质构造发育,新构造运动强烈,地震频繁且强度大,再加上高寒低温的恶劣气候条件,滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害较为发育,长期破坏森林、草地,也威胁道路、矿山等安全,对祁连山生态屏障和水源涵养地产生危害和不利影响,近年来有进一步发展趋势。本文根据遥感解译和调查的280余处滑坡,对祁连山甘肃境内滑坡灾害类型、发育分布特征、影响因素和成因进行了初步研究。祁连山滑坡类型主要为岩质滑坡和堆积层滑坡。岩质滑坡规模较大,发育多处巨型滑坡;堆积层滑坡规模较小,其稳定性较差,长期缓慢蠕动。特殊的地质环境孕育了一些形态特殊的碎屑流型滑坡、冻融泥流型滑坡和堰塞湖等典型地貌景观。祁连山滑坡发育分布主要受地形和地质构造控制,总体呈NW—SE向展布,空间分布不均匀且差异较大。滑坡发育主要与石炭系、白垩系、新近系等软岩和第四系堆积层有关。地震、地下水和季节性冻结滞水促滑效应是祁连山滑坡发育的重要动力因素。 相似文献
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美国西部是世界上最不寻常的第四纪火山区之 一,形成多种多样的火山地形和具有不同的岩石成分。本文主要介绍美国西部在过去2 ka内有过爆发活动的11座火山及其灾害,其中包括著名的圣?海伦斯火山。 相似文献
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Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards* 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true
for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models.
We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical
analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference
being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models
rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters
affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function
in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there
is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational
methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to
no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami
hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco,
Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).
* The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 相似文献
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山洪危险性区域划分是一种行之有效的防洪减灾非工程措施,是防洪减灾体系中的重要组成部分.利用GIS技术和模糊数学方法建立山洪危险性评价模型;从山洪危险性定义出发,利用正交设计方法,考察降雨量和单位面积汇流时间等对山洪影响的敏感性,确定了合理的山洪危险性评价指标体系并结合层次分析法确定了评价指标权重.选择淮河上游息县流域进行了实证应用分析,对研究区域山洪危险性空间分布进行划分.研究结果表明:单位面积汇流时间短、地势起伏较大的地区是山洪危险性较大的区域,需要加强防治. 相似文献
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The concept of self-organizedcriticality evolved from studies of three simplecellular-automata models: the sand-pile, slider-block,and forest-fire models. In each case, there is asteady input and the loss is associated with afractal (power-law) distribution of avalanches. Each of the three models can be associated with animportant natural hazard: the sand-pile model withlandslides, the slider-block model with earthquakes,and the forest-fire model with forest fires. We showthat each of the three natural hazards havefrequency-size statistics that are well approximatedby power-law distributions. The model behaviorsuggests that the recurrence interval for a severeevent can be estimated by extrapolating the observedfrequency-size distribution of small and mediumevents. For example, the recurrence interval for amagnitude seven earthquake can be obtained directlyfrom the observed frequency of occurrence of magnitudefour earthquakes. This concept leads to thedefinition of a seismic intensity factor. Both globaland regional maps of this seismic intensity factor aregiven. In addition, the behavior of the modelssuggests that the risk of occurrence of large eventscan be substantially reduced if small events areencouraged. For example, if small forest fires areallowed to burn, the risk of a large forest fire issubstantially reduced. 相似文献
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The aridity of the Arabian Peninsula's deserts ranges between arid to hyperarid with hot dry climate, scarce precipitation and sparse vegetation. These harsh environmental conditions enhance some geomorphologic processes more than others, cause specific geotechnical problems, and increase desertification.From west to east, the general physiography of Saudi Arabia shows the Red Sea coastal plains and the escarpment foothills called Tihama followed by the Arabian Shield mountains, the Arabian Shelf plateau and finally the Arabian Gulf coastal plains. Sand moves by wind either as drifting sand or migrating dunes in four major sand seas, over the Arabian Shelf, and in the inter-mountain valleys, in the Arabian Shield causing problems of erosion and deposition. Human activities in the deserts may cause more instability to the sand bodies, enlarging the magnitude of the problem. Fine silty soil particles also move by wind, depositing loess mainly in selected areas downwind in the Tihama. These loess deposits subside and may form earth fissures by the process of hydrocompaction upon wetting. The addition of water can be either natural through storms or man-made through human agricultural or civil activities. Extensive sabkhas exist along the coastal plains of both the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. The sabkha soil may also heave by salt re-crystallization or collapse by wetting. The shallow groundwater brines present in sabkhas also attack and corrode civil structures. Urbanization and excessive groundwater pumping may also deplete the fresh groundwater resources and may cause subsidence, ground fissuring and surface faulting as observed in some locations in the Arabian Shield. Although the average annual precipitation is very low, rain usually falls in the form of torrential storms, collected by dry valley basins and causing floods to unprotected downstream areas on the coastal plains of the Red Sea.The desert environment, being a fragile echo system, needs to be treated with care. Intercommunications between different national and international agencies and education of the layman should help to keep the system balanced and reduce the resulting environmental hazards. In addition, any suggested remedial measures should be planned with nature and engineered with natural materials. 相似文献
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贵州洞湾煤矿地质灾害及其治理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
洞湾煤矿位于贵州省晴隆县城以西,含煤地层为龙潭组砂泥岩层,主采煤层为10、22、24、25、26五层,目前开采深度为175m,已形成大寨滑坡及五个塌陷区,通过分析计算,本区煤层的安全开采深度为3 363m。煤层开采会引起滑坡、地面塌陷等地质灾害,为此提出了设置禁采区,拟建污水处理厂,综合利用煤矸石,建立地面移动变形观测站等矿山环境保护与综合治理的技术方法。 相似文献
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丹霞山世界地质公园位于粤北山区,具有以赤壁丹崖为特征的红色碎屑岩的“丹霞地貌”,地质构造发育,岩体受侵蚀程度严重,园区地质环境条件较为复杂。野外调查及评价认为,园区主要地质灾害为崩塌、滑坡,分布有地质灾害中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。针对该地质公园的资源禀赋和地质灾害特点,对园内地质灾害进行评价并提出地质灾害防治对策,保障当地旅游经济可持续发展。 相似文献
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柴达木盆地是中国重要的大型盐类矿产基地之一。但随着当地气候的恶化和人类活动的影响,导致地质灾害不断加剧,给人们的生产和生活带来了直接的威胁,并严重地影响着该地区社会经济的可持续发展。利用极轨卫星具有运行周期短,覆盖范围广的优点,以ETM数据为主要遥感信息源对柴达木盆地及其周边地区的地质灾害进行遥感特征分析,可对该区地质灾害现状有宏观的了解,为柴达木盆地及其周边地区的地质灾害防治工作提供科学依据。 相似文献
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Western Canada lies in a zone of active tectonics and volcanism, but thedispersed population has witnessed few eruptions due to the remoteness of the volcanoes and their low level ofactivity. This has created a false perception that Canada's volcanoes are extinct.There are more than 200 potentially-active volcanoes in Canada, 49of which have erupted in the past 10,000 years. They occur in five belts, with origins related totectonic environment. The minimum annual probability of a Canadian volcanic eruption is approximately 1/200;for an effusive (lava) eruption the probability is about 1/220, and for a significant explosive eruptionit is about 1/3333. In-progress studies show that there have been earthquakes associated with at least 9 ofthe youngest Canadian volcanoes since 1975. A scenario of an eruption of Mt. Cayley (50.1°N,123.3°W) shows how western Canada is vulnerable to an eruption. The scenario is basedon past activity in the Garibaldi volcanic belt and involves both explosive and effusive activity.The scenario impact is largely a result of the concentration of vulnerable infrastructure in valleys.Canadian volcanoes are monitored only by a regional seismic network,that is capable of detecting a M > 2 event in all potentially-active areas.This level of monitoring is probably sufficient to alert scientistsat or near eruption onset, but probably insufficient to allow a timelyforecast of activity. Similarly the level of geological knowledge about the volcanoes is insufficient to createhazard maps. This will improve slightly in 2002 when additional monitoring is implemented in theGaribaldi volcanic belt. The eruption probabilities, possible impacts, monitoring limitations and knowledgegaps suggest that there is a need to increment the volcanic risk mitigation efforts. 相似文献
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从地质灾害的理论分析基础上,对突发性地质灾害进行了研究,阐述了突发性地灾的预报方法和类型,提出了地灾风险评估的内容和评价模型,并提出了地质灾害的减灾系统,和防治工作的方针及具体的地灾防治方法. 相似文献