Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations     

Richard P. Allan  Chunlei Liu  Matthias Zahn  David A. Lavers  Evgenios Koukouvagias  Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):533-552

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.  相似文献   

Bayesian autoregressive spatiotemporal model of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentrations across Peninsular Malaysia     

Edna?Manga  Norhashidah?AwangEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(12):3409-3419

Rapid industrialization and haze episodes in Malaysia ensure pollution remains a public health challenge. Atmospheric pollutants such as PM₁₀ are typically variable in space and time. The increased vigilance of policy makers in monitoring pollutant levels has led to vast amounts of spatiotemporal data available for modelling and inference. The aim of this study is to model and predict the spatiotemporal daily PM₁₀ levels across Peninsular Malaysia. A hierarchical autoregressive spatiotemporal model is applied to daily PM₁₀ concentration levels from thirty-four monitoring stations in Peninsular Malaysia during January to December 2011. The model set in a three stage Bayesian hierarchical structure comprises data, process and parameter levels. The posterior estimates suggest moderate spatial correlation with effective range 157 km and a short term persistence of PM₁₀ in atmosphere with temporal correlation parameter 0.78. Spatial predictions and temporal forecasts of the PM₁₀ concentrations follow from the posterior and predictive distributions of the model parameters. Spatial predictions at the hold-out sites and one-step ahead PM₁₀ forecasts are obtained. The predictions and forecasts are validated by computing the RMSE, MAE, R² and MASE. For the spatial predictions and temporal forecasting, our results indicate a reasonable RMSE of 10.71 and 7.56, respectively for the spatiotemporal model compared to RMSE of 15.18 and 12.96, respectively from a simple linear regression model. Furthermore, the coverage probability of the 95% forecast intervals is 92.4% implying reasonable forecast results. We also present prediction maps of the one-step ahead forecasts for selected day at fine spatial scale.  相似文献   

Water and heat fluxes above a lowland dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia     

Satoru Takanashi  Yoshiko Kosugi  Shinjiro Ohkubo  Naoko Matsuo  Makoto Tani  Abdul Rahim Nik 《水文研究》2010,24(4):472-480

We measured the fluxes of sensible and latent heat between a low‐land dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia and the atmosphere. No clear seasonal or interannual changes in latent heat flux were found from 2003 to 2005, while sensible heat flux sometimes fluctuated depending on the fluctuation of incoming radiation between wet and dry seasons. The evapotranspiration rates averaged for the period between 2003 and 2005 were 2·77 and 3·61 mm day^?1 using eddy covariance data without and with an energy balance correction, respectively. Average precipitation was 4·74 mm day^?1. Midday surface conductance decreased with an increasing atmospheric water vapour pressure deficit and thus restricted the excess water loss on sunny days in the dry season. However, the relationship between the surface conductance and vapour pressure deficit did not significantly decline with an increase in volumetric soil water content even during a period of extremely low rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The impact of climate change on sea level rise at Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak     

Ali Ercan  Mohd Fauzi Bin Mohamad  M. Levent Kavvas 《水文研究》2013,27(3):367-377

The sea level change along the Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak coastlines for the 21st century is investigated along the coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak because of the expected climate change during the 21st century. The spatial variation of the sea level change is estimated by assimilating the global mean sea level projections from the Atmosphere–Ocean coupled Global Climate Model/General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations to the satellite altimeter observations along the subject coastlines. Using the assimilated AOGCM projections, the sea level around the Peninsular Malaysia coastline is projected to rise with a mean in the range of 0.066 to 0.141 m in 2040 and 0.253 m to 0.517 m in 2100. Using the assimilated AOGCM projections, the sea level around Sabah–Sarawak coastlines is projected to rise with a mean in the range of 0.115 m to 0.291 m in 2040 and 0.432 m to 1.064 m in 2100. The highest sea level rise occurs at the northeast and northwest regions in Peninsular Malaysia and at north and east sectors of Sabah in Sabah–Sarawak coastline. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seasonal variation of carbon exchange of typical forest ecosystems along the eastern forest transect in China     

Zhang Leiming  Yu Guirui  Sun Xiaomin  Wen Xuefa  Ren Chuanyou  Song Xia  Liu Yunfen  Guan Dexin  Yan Junhua  Zhang Yiping 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,49(2):47-62

The long-term and continuous carbon fluxes of Changbaishan temperate mixed forest (CBS), Qianyanzhou subtropical evergreen coniferous forest (QYZ), Dinghushan subtropical evergreen mixed forest (DHS) and Xishuangbana tropical rainforest (XSBN) have been measured with eddy covariance techniques. In 2003, different responses of carbon exchange to the environment appeared across the four ecosystems. At CBS, the carbon exchange was mainly determined by radiation and temperature. 0°C and 10°C were two important temperature thresholds; the former determined the length of the growing season and the latter affected the magnitude of carbon exchange. The maximum net ecosystem exchange (N _EE) of CBS occurred in early summer because maximum ecosystem photosynthesis (G _PP) occurred earlier than maximum ecosystem respiration (R _e). During summer, QYZ experienced severe drought and N _EE decreased significantly mainly as a result of the depression of G _PP. At DHS and XSBN, N _EE was higher in the drought season than the wet season, especially the conversion between carbon sink and source occurring during the transition season at XSBN. During the wet season, increased fog and humid weather resulted from the plentiful rainfall, the ecosystem G _PP was dispressed. The Q ₁₀ and annual respiration of XSBN were the highest among the four ecosystems, while the average daily respiration of CBS during the growing season was the highest. Annual N _EE of CBS, QYZ, DHS and XSBN were 181.5, 360.9, 536.2 and ?320.0 g·C·m^?2·a^?1, respectively. From CBS to DHS, the temperature and precipitation increased with the decrease in latitude. The ratio of N _EE/R _e increased with latitude, while R _e/G _PP, ecosystem light use efficiency (L _UE), precipitation use efficiency and average daily G _PP decreased gradually. However, XSBN usually escaped such latitude trend probably because of the influence of the south-west monsoon climate which does not affect the other ecosystems. Long-term measurement and more research were necessary to understand the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change and to evaluate the ecosystem carbon balance due to the complexity of structure and function of forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

Study on the association of green house gas (CO2) with monsoon rainfall using AIRS and TRMM satellite observations     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

Monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60 per cent of the world’s population. Throughout history, the monsoon-related calamities of droughts and floods have determined the life pattern of people. The association of Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly Carbon dioxide (CO₂) with monsoon has been greatly debated amongst the scientific community in the past. The effect of CO₂ on the monsoon rainfall over the Indian–Indonesian region (8–30°N, 65°–100°E) is being investigated using satellite data. The correlation coefficient (R_xy) between CO₂ and monsoon is analysed. The R_xy is not significantly positive over a greater part of the study region, except a few regions. The inter-annual anomalies of CO₂ is identified for playing a secondary role to influencing monsoon while other phenomenon like ENSO might be exerting a much greater influence.  相似文献   

A Statistical Framework for Calculating and Assessing Compositional Linear Trends Within Fault Zones: A Case Study of the NE Block of the Clark Segment,San Jacinto Fault,California, USA     

Brian G. Rockwell  Gary H. Girty  Thomas K. Rockwell 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(11):2919-2935

Utilizing chemical data derived from the various fault zone architectural components of the Clark strand of the San Jacinto fault, southern California, USA, we apply for the first time non-central principal component analysis to calculate a compositional linear trend within molar A–CN–K space. In this procedure A–CN–K are calculated as the molar proportions of Al₂O₃ (A), CaO* + Na₂O (CN), and K₂O (K) in the sum of molar Al₂O₃, Na₂O, CaO*, and K₂O. CaO* is the molar CaO after correction for apatite. We then derive translational invariant chemical alteration intensity factors, t, for each architectural component through orthogonal projection of analyzed samples onto the compositional linear trend. The chemical alteration intensity factor t determines the relative change in composition compared to the original state (i.e., the composition of the altered wall rocks). It is dependent on the degree of intensity to which the process or processes responsible for the change in composition of each architectural component has been active. These processes include shearing, fragmentation, fluid flow, and generation of frictional heat. Non-central principal component analysis indicates that principal component 1 explains 99.7 % of the spread of A–CN–K data about the calculated compositional linear trend (i.e., the variance). The significance level for the overall one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is 0.0001. Such a result indicates that at least one significant difference across the group of means of t values is different at the 95 % confidence level. Following completion of the overall one-way ANOVA, the difference in means t test indicated that the mean of the t values for the fault core are different than the means obtained from the transition and damage zones. In contrast, at the 95 % confidence level, the means of the t values for the transition and damage zones are not statistically distinguishable. The results of XRD work completed during this study revealed that the <2 µm fraction is composed primarily of illite/smectite with ~15 % illite in the damage zone, of illite/smectite with ~30 % illite in the transition zone, and of discreet illite with very minor smectite in the fault core. These changes parallel the increasing values of the chemical alteration intensity factors (i.e., t). Based on the above results, it is speculated that when fault zones are derived from tonalitic wall rocks at depths of ~400 ± 100 m, the onset of the illite/smectite to illite conversion will occur when t values exceed 0.20 ± 0.12, the average chemical alteration intensity factor calculated for the transition zone. Under such conditions during repeated rupturing events, frictional heat is produced and acidic fluids with elevated temperatures (≥ ~125 °C) are flushed through the fault core. Over time, the combination of shearing, fragmentation, and frictionally elevated temperatures eventually overcomes the kinetic barrier for the illite/smectite to illite transition. Such settings and processes are unique to fault zones, and as a result, they represent an underappreciated setting for the development of illite from illite/smectite. The success of non-central principal component analysis in this environment offers the first statistically rigorous methodology for establishing the existence of compositional linear trends in fault zones. This method also derives quantifiable alteration intensity factors that could potentially be used to compare the intensity of alteration at different segments of a fault, as well as offer a foundation to interpret the potential driving forces for said alteration and differences therein.  相似文献   

A New Insight into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Central India     

H. S. Mandal  A. K. Shukla  P. K. Khan  O. P. Mishra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(12):2139-2161

The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament and its surroundings of Central India (CI) is the second most important tectonic regime following the converging margin along Himalayas-Myanmar-Andaman of the Indian sub-continent, which attracted several geoscientists to assess its seismic hazard potential. Our study area, a part of CI, is bounded between latitudes 18°–26°N and longitudes 73°–83°E, representing a stable part of Peninsular India. Past damaging moderate magnitude earthquakes as well as continuing microseismicity in the area provided enough data for seismological study. Our estimates based on regional Gutenberg–Richter relationship showed lower b values (i.e., between 0.68 and 0.76) from the average for the study area. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis carried out over the area with a radius of ~300 km encircling Bhopal yielded a conspicuous relationship between earthquake return period (T) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). Analyses of T and PGA shows that PGA value at bedrock varies from 0.08 to 0.15 g for 10 % (T = 475 years) and 2 % (T = 2,475 years) probabilities exceeding 50 years, respectively. We establish the empirical relationships $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 475)} = 0.1146\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2924}, $ and $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 2475)} = 0.2053\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2426} $ between zero period acceleration (ZPA) and shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m [V _s (30)] for the two different return periods. These demonstrate that the ZPA values decrease with increasing shear wave velocity, suggesting a diagnostic indicator for designing the structures at a specific site of interest. The predictive designed response spectra generated at a site for periods up to 4.0 s at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance of ground motion for 50 years can be used for designing duration dependent structures of variable vertical dimension. We infer that this concept of assimilating uniform hazard response spectra and predictive design at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years at 5 % damping at bedrocks of different categories may offer potential inputs for designing earthquake resistant structures of variable dimensions for the CI region under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program for India.  相似文献   

Nutrient export via overland flow from a cultivated field of an Ultisol in southern China     

Linhong Wei  Xunqiang Cheng  Yuanfeng Cai 《水文研究》2013,27(3):421-432

Understanding the influence of complex interactions among hydrological factors, soil characteristics and biogeochemical functions on nutrient dynamics in overland flow is important for efficiently managing agricultural nonpoint pollution. Experiments were conducted to assess nutrient export from Ultisol soils in the Sunjia catchment, Jiangxi province, southern China, between 2003 and 2005. Four plots were divided into two groups: two peanut plots and two agroforestry (peanut intercropped with citrus) plots. During the study period, we collected water samples for chemical analyses after each rainfall event that generated overland flow to assess nutrient export dynamics. The concentrations of potassium (K) and nitrate‐N (NO₃^––N) in overland flow were higher during the wetting season (winter and early spring). This reflects the solubility of K and NO₃^––N, the accumulation of NO₃^––N during the dry season and an increase in desorption processes and mixing with pre‐event water caused by prolonged contact with soil in areas with long‐duration, low‐intensity rainfall. In contrast, concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were higher during the wet season (late March to early July) and during the dry season (mid‐July to the end of September or early October). This was due to the interaction between specific hydrological regimes, the properties of the Ultisol and particulate transport processes. Variations in nutrient concentrations during storm events further identified that event water was the dominant source of total nitrogen and total phosphorus, and pre‐event water was the dominant source of NO₃^––N. In addition, the results obtained for the different land uses suggest that agroforestry practices reduce nutrient loss via overland flow. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large-scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia     

Qing He  Kwok Pan Chun  Mou Leong Tan  Bastien Dieppois  Liew Juneng  Julian Klaus  Matthieu Fournier  Nicolas Massei  Omer Yetemen 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14356

Ocean–atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short- and long-term spatial drought patterns (3-, 6, 12- and 24-months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio-temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio-temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North–South and East–West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio-temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North–South gradient in drought conditions over Peninsular Malaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East–West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East–West or North–South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short-term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer-duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio-temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management.  相似文献   

Solar activity dependence of electron and ion temperatures using SROSS C2 RPA data and comparison with IRI model     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(7):860-874

Electron and ion temperature (T_e and T_i) data observed using RPA on board SROSS C2 satellite are investigated for the variation with local time, season, latitude (0–30°N geographic) over a half of a solar cycle (1995–2000). The nighttime T_e (∼1000 K) is independent of the season and the solar flux whereas T_i exhibits positive correlation with the solar activity during all three seasons. In the early morning hours during summer, T_e is higher by ∼500 K than other seasons in all three levels of solar activity. During winter and equinox in the early morning hours, T_e and T_i are higher during low solar activity, showing a negative correlation with solar flux. During daytime, the T_i increases with the solar flux in winter and summer solstice, but is independent in equinox. IRI underestimates T_e and T_i during the morning period by 50–75% in the equatorial and near-equatorial stations during all levels of solar activities.  相似文献   

Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes     

Yongxian Zhang  Xiaotao Zhang  Yongjia Wu  Xiangchu Yin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):197-208

Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°–50.0°N, 70.0°–110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δx, base time t _b, reference interval t _b to t ₁, change interval t ₁ to t ₂, and forecasting interval t ₂ to t ₃. In this paper, the base time t _b fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t ₃ fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t ₂ to t ₃ changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4–8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7–10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test.  相似文献   

Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. B. S. Yadav  J. N. Tripathi  T. Srinivasa Kumar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(3):373-389

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.  相似文献   

First evidence of Middle to Late Triassic radiolarians in the Garba mountains,South Sumatra,Indonesia     

Munasri  Akbar Maharsha Putra 《Island Arc》2019,28(3)

A Middle to Late Triassic (Ladinian–Carnian) radiolarian fauna was discovered in cherts of the Situlanglang Member of the Garba Formation, South Sumatra, which is generally regarded as of Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous age. This fauna is characterized by the presence of Annulotriassocampe sulovensis, Triassocampe postdeweveri, Spongotortilispinus tortilis, Poulpus piabyx, Canoptum levis and others. This evidence possibly indicates that the deposition of the Situlanglang cherts took place after the collision of the Sibumasu and East Malaya blocks recorded in the Bentong–Raub Suture in Peninsular Malaysia in Late Permian–Early Triassic times. During the Middle–Late Triassic Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia consisted of submarine horst and graben structures. It is possible that a submarine graben, the Tuhur basin, whose southern boundary was formerly undefined, extends into South Sumatra, to the area in which the Situlanglang cherts were deposited. The Situlanglang Member is proposed to be a rock unit stratigraphically contemporaneous with those of the Middle–Upper Triassic Kualu and Tuhur Formations in North and Central Sumatra.  相似文献   

Long-term rainfall trends and change points in hot and cold arid regions of India     

Deepesh Machiwal  Devi Dayal  Sanjay Kumar 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(7):1050-1066

This study examined trends and change points in 100-year annual and seasonal rainfall over hot and cold arid regions of India. Using k-means clustering, 32 stations were classified into two clusters: the coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal rainfall was relatively high for Cluster-II compared to Cluster-I. Short-term and long-term persistence was more dominant in Cluster-II (entirely arid) and Cluster-I (partly arid), respectively. Trend tests revealed prominent increasing trends in annual and wet season rainfall of Cluster-II. Dry season rainfall increased by 1.09 mm year^?1 in the cold arid region. The significant change points in annual and wet season rainfall mostly occurred in the period 1941–1955 (hot and cold), and in the dry season in the period 1973–1975 (hot arid) and in 1949 (cold arid). The findings are useful for managing a surplus or deficiency of rainwater in the Indian arid region.