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Bettina Matti Helen E. Dahlke Bastien Dieppois Damian M. Lawler Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370
Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response. 相似文献
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Nicolas Fritier Nicolas MasseiBenoit Laignel Alain DurandBastien Dieppois Julien Deloffre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(8):396-405
The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales. 相似文献
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Hill Bohlender Landstreet Wade Manset & Bastien 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(1):236-238
The magnetic Ap star 53 Cam has been described as the best object for testing theories of elemental diffusion in the presence of a stellar magnetic field. It is thus vital to determine the rotational period of this very important star as accurately as possible. An improved period (8.026 81±0.000 04 d) is derived here by combining new measurements of the effective magnetic field with previously published values. 相似文献
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Cédric Gaucherel Romain Frelat Audrey Lustig Bastien Rouy Yvelt Chéry Pierre Hubert 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):274-288
AbstractComprehensive characterization of its flow rates is prerequisite to a proper understanding and water management of a given hydrological region. Several studies question the soundness of stationarity in time series and suggest the need for a quantification of the events and non-stationary features in flow rate time series. In this study, we combine statistical and time–frequency (TF) analyses to characterize and classify the flow rates of an understudied region, namely Haiti. Wavelet transforms and cyclostationarity analyses were combined with principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify three groups of hydrological regimes in the country, suggesting similar management: (1) relatively stable flow rates with TF behaviour; (2) periodic and strongly seasonal flow rates; and (3) unstable flow rates. We argue that the TF methodology can yield additional information in regard to flow events and multiscale behaviour, even for short records. Flow rate characterization would benefit from the exhaustive approach described here.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Toth 相似文献
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CO2 saturations are estimated at Sleipner using a two-step imaging workflow. The workflow combines seismic tomography (full-waveform inversion) and rock physics inversion and is applied to a two-dimensional seismic line located near the injection point at Sleipner. We use baseline data (1994 vintage, before CO2 injection) and monitor data that was acquired after 12 years of CO2 injection (2008 vintage). P-wave velocity models are generated using the Full waveform inversion technology and then, we invert selected rock physics parameters using an rock physics inversion methodology. Full waveform inversion provides high-resolution P-wave velocity models both for baseline and monitor data. The physical relations between rock physics properties and acoustic wave velocities in the Utsira unconsolidated sandstone (reservoir formation) are defined using a dynamic rock physics model based on well-known Biot–Gassmann theories. For data prior to injection, rock frame properties (porosity, bulk and shear dry moduli) are estimated using rock physics inversion that allows deriving physically consistent properties with related uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty related to limited input data (only P-wave velocity) is not an issue because the mean values of parameters are correct. These rock frame properties are then used as a priori constraint in the monitor case. For monitor data, the Full waveform inversion results show nicely resolved thin layers of CO2–brine saturated sandstones under intra-reservoir shale layers. The CO2 saturation estimation is carried out by plugging an effective fluid phase in the rock physics model. Calculating the effective fluid bulk modulus of the brine–CO2 mixture (using Brie equation in our study) is shown to be the key factor to link P-wave velocity to CO2 saturation. The inversion tests are done with several values of Brie/patchiness exponent and show that the CO2 saturation estimates are varying between 0.30 and 0.90 depending on the rock physics model and the location in the reservoir. The uncertainty in CO2 saturation estimation is usually lower than 0.20. When the patchiness exponent is considered as unknown, the inversion is less constrained and we end up with values of exponent varying between 5 and 20 and up to 33 in specific reservoir areas. These estimations tend to show that the CO2–brine mixing is between uniform and patchy mixing and variable throughout the reservoir. 相似文献
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Bastien Girod Detlef P. van Vuuren Maria Grahn Alban Kitous Son H Kim Page Kyle 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):595-608
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems. 相似文献
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The geological record provides an irreplaceable account of the joint history between the Earth and living organisms. Extant living organisms also contain in their phenotypes and most importantly in their genomes information about their history, and about the history of the Earth. In this review we explain how biologists attempt to extract this information and draw inferences about past history, using statistics, computer algorithms, and molecular biology. We show that inferred ancestral gene contents provide insights into ancient metabolisms, ancestral genome composition in bases or amino-acids provide information about ancient growth temperatures, and protein resurrection offers means to investigate the function of proteins long disappeared. All these inferences throw a new light on organism and Earth evolution. Their combination and the use of statistical models integrating both genomic and geologic histories hold great promises for unveiling more of the past 4 billion year history on Earth. 相似文献