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Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years. 相似文献
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We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk. 相似文献
4.
The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that occurred off the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, was followed by thousands of aftershocks, both near the plate interface and in the crust of inland eastern Japan. In this paper, we report on two large, shallow crustal earthquakes that occurred near the Ibaraki-Fukushima prefecture border, where the background seismicity was low prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Using densely spaced geodetic observations (GPS and InSAR datasets), we found that two large aftershocks in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions (hereafter referred to as the Iwaki earthquake and the Kita-Ibarake earthquake) produced 2.1 m and 0.44 m of motion in the line-of-sight (LOS), respectively. The azimuth-offset method was used to obtain the preliminary location of the fault traces. The InSAR-based maximum offset and trace of the faults that produced the Iwaki earthquake are consistent with field observations. The fault location and geometry of these two earthquakes are constrained by a rectangular dislocation model in a multilayered elastic half-space, which indicates that the maximum slips for the two earthquakes are 3.28 m and 0.98 m, respectively. The Coulomb stress changes were calculated for the faults following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on the modeled slip along the fault planes. The resulting Coulomb stress changes indicate that the stresses on the faults increased by up to 1.1 MPa and 0.7 MPa in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions, respectively, suggesting that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake triggered the two aftershocks, supporting the results of seismic tomography. 相似文献
5.
大地震发生后, 研究地震的发生对周围断层的影响尤为重要.利用川西-藏东地区三维粘弹性有限元模型,考虑地表高程和粘弹性松弛等因素的影响,研究主要断裂带库仑应力累积速率和汶川地震的发生对周围断层的影响.结果表明:(1)龙门山断裂带年累积速率为0.28×10-3~0.35×10-3 MPa/a,这种较小的累积速率与龙门山断裂带强震较长复发间隔一致;(2)汶川地震的发生除造成震源区应力减小外, 还造成断裂带北东段不同程度的应力增加, 这与震后余震的分布基本吻合;(3)鲜水河断裂北西段、东昆仑、龙日坝、岷江以及虎牙断裂库仑应力水平增加显著,且汶川地震对于玉树地震的发生有微弱的加载效应;(4)汶川地震的发生造成鲜水河断裂带强震复发间隔缩短约52~104 a,是值得关注的强震危险区. 相似文献
6.
In the southern South–North Seismic Zone, China, seismic activity in the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan increased from December 2010, and eventually a destructive earthquake of Ms5.9 occurred near Yingjiang town on 10 March 2011. The focal mechanism and hypocenter location of the mainshock suggest that the Dayingjiang Fault was the site of the mainshock rupture. However, most of foreshocks and all aftershocks recorded by a portable seismic array located close to the mainshock occurred along the N–S-striking Sudian Fault, indicating that this fault had an important influence on these shocks. Coulomb stress calculations show that three strong(magnitude ≥5.0) earthquakes that occurred in the study region in 2008 increased the coulomb stress along the plane parallel to the Dayingjiang Fault. This supports the Dayingjiang Fault, and not the Sudian Fault, as the seismogenic fault of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang earthquake. The strong earthquakes in 2008 also increased the Coulomb stress at depths of ≤5 km along the entire Sudian Fault, and by doing so increased the shallow seismic activity along the fault. This explains why the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2011 Yingjiang earthquake were located mostly on the Sudian Fault where it cuts the shallow crust. The earthquakes at the intersection of the Sudian and Dayingjiang faults are distributed mainly along a belt that dips to the southeast at ~40°, suggesting that the Dayingjiang Fault in the mainshock area also dips to the southeast at ~40°. 相似文献
7.
以山东郯城1668年大地震为例,以前人地表地质调查结果为约束,利用弹性位错理论初步获取了该地震的同震破裂模型;在此基础上,基于粘弹性分层模型分析了该地震的同震和震后形变,同时以主震断层为接收断层计算了库仑应力分布,进一步讨论了地幔不同粘滞性系数对地表形变和库仑应力变化的影响。计算结果显示,该地震是一个右旋走滑为主兼有一定逆冲性质的地震,其同震位移巨大,能量释放较彻底;同震破裂造成震中郯城县西北、东北和南部部分断层库仑应力增加,而震后形变使得这些断层库仑应力进一步增加,在单县、宿迁和日照等地,地震后350 a库仑应力变化量达到+1bar-+1MPa量级;地幔粘滞性系数不同,形变量和库仑应力变化达到稳定的时间不同,但最终趋于稳定的数值基本一致。 相似文献
8.
Areas of low strain rate are typically characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The earthquake catalogs for these regions
do not usually include large earthquakes because of their long recurrence periods. In cases where the recurrence period of
large earthquakes is much longer than the catalog time span, probabilistic seismic hazard is underestimated. The information
provided by geological and paleo-seismological studies can potentially improve seismic hazard estimation through renewal models,
which assume characteristic earthquakes. In this work, we compare the differences produced when active faults in the northwestern
margin of the València trough are introduced in hazard analysis. The differences between the models demonstrate that the introduction
of faults in zones characterized by low seismic activity can give rise to significant changes in the hazard values and location.
The earthquake and fault seismic parameters (recurrence interval, segmentation or fault length that controls the maximum magnitude
earthquake and time elapsed since the last event or Te) were studied to ascertain their effect on the final hazard results. The most critical parameter is the recurrence interval,
where shorter recurrences produce higher hazard values. The next most important parameter is the fault segmentation. Higher
hazard values are obtained when the fault has segments capable of producing big earthquakes. Finally, the least critical parameter
is the time elapsed since the last event (Te), when longer Te produces higher hazard values. 相似文献
9.
A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the
world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure
of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided
into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved
by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory,
and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology
used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been
identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern
of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into
transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction,
etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed
on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably
decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include
concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO
zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source.
Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical
and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database
that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required
for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic
earthquake effects in a predetermined location. 相似文献
10.
Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation. 相似文献
11.
Strong earthquake occurrence (M ≥ 6.0) onshore and offshore the Cyprus Island constitutes significant seismic hazard because they occur close to populated areas. Seismicity is weak south of the Island along the Cyprean Arc and strong events are aligned along the Paphos transform fault and Larnaka thrust fault zone that were already known and the Lemessos thrust fault zone that defined in the present study. By combining the past history of strong (M ≥ 6.0) events and the long-term tectonic loading on these major fault zones, the evolution of the stress field from 1896 until the present is derived. Although uncertainties exist in the location, magnitude and fault geometries of the early earthquakes included in our stress evolutionary model, the resulting stress field provides an explanation of later earthquake triggering. It was evidenced that the locations of all the strong events were preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The current state of the evolved stress field may provide evidence for the future seismic hazard. Areas of positive static stress changes were identified in the southwestern offshore area that can be considered as possible sites of future seismic activity. 相似文献
12.
The M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake occurred on April 11, 2012 near the NW junction of three plates viz. Indian, Australian and Sunda plate, which caused widespread coseismic displacements and Coulomb stress changes. We analyzed the GPS data from three IGS sites PBRI, NTUS & COCO and computed the coseismic horizontal displacements. In order to have in-depth understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and probabilistic hazard, we estimated the coseismic displacements and associated Coulomb stress changes from two rectangular parallel fault geometries, constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS) derived coseismic displacements. The Coulomb stress changes following the earthquake found to be in the range of 5 to ?4 bar with maximum displacement of ～11 m near the epicenter. We find that most of the aftershocks occurred in the areas of increased Coulomb stress and concentrated in three clusters. The temporal variation of the aftershocks, not conformed to modified Omori’s law, speculating poroelastic processes. It is also ascertained that the spatio-temporal transient stress changes may promote the occurrence of the subsequent earthquakes and enhance the seismic risk in the region. 相似文献
13.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy》1999,24(2):105-110
We have computed static stress changes associated to several earthquakes occurred in the Apennine chain, in Italy. Stress associated with fault slip has been computed by the Okada (1992) formulation. Static Coulomb stress changes associated to three subevents forming the Irpinia, 1980, Ms=6.9 main shock indicate that such subevents have been consecutively triggered, each one by stress changes produced by previous ones. Furthermore, aftershocks of this complex faulting event are well correlated with zones of maximum increase of Coulomb stress. The interplay of regional stress and of local stress changes due to the mainshock produces an aftershock distribution considerably wide and a large variability of focal mechanisms. Variability of focal mechanism is consistent with a low level of background regional stress (less than 2 Mpa). The analysis of two further seismic sequence in the central Apennine, occurred on 1979 close to Norcia town (ML=5.9) and on 1984 in National Park of Abruzzo (ML=5.5), also show a clear correlation of aftershock occurrence with positive Coulomb stress changes generated by mainshocks. The static stress change due to the mainshock of 1984, in Abruzzo region, is likely to have triggered, 4 days after, a further mainshock (ML=5.1) on the northern edge prolongation of the main fault, where the Coulomb stress change is maximum.Such evidences indicate a strong correlation among earthquakes in the Apennine chain, trough static stress changes, at several time and space scales. Modelling of such effects is useful both for improving our knowledge of the earthquake dynamics and for a better evaluation of seismic hazard in Italy. 相似文献
14.
Elastic and visco-elastic stress triggering in the South Iceland Seismic Zone due to large earthquakes since 1706 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Damaging earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) occur fairly regularly and often as a series of events with a few days only between individual events. Tolerably reliable information on epicentre locations and mechanisms are available for 13 M ≥ 6 events between 1706 and 2000. For these events, we computed the co- and post-seismic stress fields, hereby approximating the SISZ by a mixed elastic/visco-elastic layered half-space. The horizontal shear stress and the Coulomb stress changes were analysed to detect possible trigger mechanisms, which may aid future earthquake mitigation efforts. We tested several criteria but must conclude that the start of an earthquake series in the SISZ cannot be explained by triggering through previous events. Inside an individual series, however, one may infer triggering. Our results are in contradiction with the findings in other regions of the world. The reason might be related to the fact that the SISZ is not a mature fault zone, in which old faults are re-activated if a certain stress level threshold is passed. In addition, uncertainties in the model parameters as well as the neglect of horizontal variations in the model and of possible stress transfer due to volcanic activity further complicate the evaluation of our results and need to be taken into account in future studies. 相似文献
15.
基于青藏高原及邻区的三维粘弹性有限元模型,讨论2008年于田MS7.3级地震与2014年于田MS7.3级地震之间的关系,并研究2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成周围断层的库仑破裂应力变化。初步结果表明:1)2008年于田MS7.3级地震在2014年于田MS7.3级地震震中滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂应力变化高于地震触发的阈值0.01 MPa,存在明显的触发作用。在视摩擦系数分别取0.4和0.6时,震源区同震库仑破裂应力变化为0.0167 MPa和0.0170 MPa;而考虑粘弹性松弛作用时产生的库仑应力增加量分别为0.0187 MPa和0.0194 MPa。结合断裂带构造应力年累计速率的结果,2008年于田地震的发生造成2014年于田地震提前21.4~24.9 a;2)在较短的时间尺度内,对于距离相近的两次地震之间,同震产生的应力变化远大于粘弹性松弛效应产生的变化;3)2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成阿尔金断裂中北段、玛尼—玉树断裂中段、东昆仑断裂西段、柴达木北缘断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂西段等不同程度的加载效应,地震危险性有所增强。其中阿尔金断裂中段库仑应力增加最为明显,最大达2.8×10–3 MPa;玛尼—玉树断裂中段次之,应力增加量最大达5.6×10–4 MPa;东昆仑断裂西段应力增加量最大达4.75×10–4 MPa。而玛尼—玉树断裂西段库仑破裂应力最大卸载量达3.6×10–3 MPa。 相似文献
16.
Seismic slip rates of about 0.2 mm yr?1 calculated from cumulative seismic moments of earthquakes along the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) between the Alps and the Carpathians are very low compared to geologically and geodetically determined slip rates of 1–2 mm yr?1, proving a significant seismic slip deficit. Additional seismic slip calculations for arbitrarily selected fault sectors reveal large differences along strike ranging from c. 0.02 to 0.5 mm slip yr?1. As the earthquake frequency distribution suggests seismically coupled deformation, these variations might indicate locked fault segments. Results suggest that (1) the seismic cycle of the VBTF exceeds the length of available seismological observation, and (2) larger earthquakes than those recorded may occur along the fault. Thus, current local seismic hazard estimates, which are solely based on this historical database, probably underestimate the earthquake potential of the fault system. 相似文献
17.
A moderate-sized (Mw 5.3) earthquake occurred in the Dead Sea basin on February 11, 2004. A rigorous seismological analysis of the main shock and numerous aftershocks suggests that seismogenic structure was a secondary, antithetic fault within the Dead Sea fault system. The main shock is well located using all available regional seismic stations, and 43 aftershocks were precisely located relative to the main shock using a double difference algorithm. The first motion, focal mechanism for this earthquake demonstrates NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW striking nodal planes, and the aftershocks distribution is consistent with the latter — indicating a right-lateral sense of displacement. This orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly oriented geological faults around the Dead Sea basin — these structures are likely antithetic faults within the transform system. Although moderate in size, earthquakes that occur very close to the large Dead Sea fault system warrant consideration in the earthquake hazard assessment of the region: For example, owing to the proximity to the main fault, moderate earthquakes such as this may produce static changes in Coulomb stress along the main fault. 相似文献
18.
The evolution of the seismogenic process associated with the Ms 5.8 Sangro Valley earthquake of May 1984 (Abruzzo, central Italy) is closely controlled by the Quaternary extensional tectonic pattern of the area. This pattern is characterised by normal faults mainly NNW striking, whose length is controlled by pre-existing Mio–Pliocene N100±10° left-lateral strike-slip fault zones. These are partly re-activated as right-lateral normal-oblique faults under the Quaternary extensional regime and behave as transfer faults.Integration of re-located aftershocks, focal mechanisms and structural features are used to explain the divergence between the alignment of aftershocks (WSW–ENE) and the direction of seismogenic fault planes defined by the focal mechanisms (NNW–SSE) of the main shock and of the largest aftershock (Ms=5.3).The faults that appear to be involved in the seismogenic process are the NNW–SSE Barrea fault and the E–W M. Greco fault. There is field evidence of finite Quaternary deformation indicating that the normal Barrea fault re-activates the M. Greco fault as right-lateral transfer fault. No surface faulting was observed during the seismic sequence. The apparently incongruent divergence between aftershocks and nodal planes may be explained by interpreting the M. Greco fault as a barrier to the propagation of earthquake rupturing. The rupture would have nucleated on the Barrea fault, migrating along-strike towards NNW. The sharp variation in direction from the Barrea to the M. Greco fault segments would have represented a structural complexity sufficient to halt the rupture and subsequent concentration of post-seismic deformation as aftershocks around the line of intersection between the two fault planes.Fault complexities, similar to those observed in the Sangro Valley, are common features of the seismic zone of the Apennines. We suggest that the zones of interaction between NW–SE and NNW–SSE Plio-Quaternary faults and nearly E–W transfer faults, extending for several kilometres in the same way as M. Greco does, might act as barriers to the along-strike propagation of rupture processes during normal faulting earthquakes. This might have strong implications on seismic hazard, especially for the extent of the maximum magnitude expected on active faults during single rupture episodes. 相似文献
19.
Markos D. Tranos Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou Adamantios A. Kilias 《Journal of Structural Geology》2003,25(12):2109-2123
Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ. 相似文献
20.
The Maule, Chile, (Mw 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the Mw 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), Mw 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), Mw 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior. 相似文献