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1.
The kinematic rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) was derived given apparent source time functions (ASTFs) retrieved from Rayleigh waves using a refined homomorphic deconvolution method. The total duration of the rupture process was about 165 s. Three slip-concentrated areas were identified based on images of static slip distribution. The largest asperity, located up-dip from the hypocenter with an area of 250 km × 110 km extending to the trench on the fault, had a maximum slip of about 54 m. The other asperities with smaller slip down-dip from the hypocenter were centered on the north and south of the hypocenter, respectively. The preferred average rupture expansion velocity was 1.2 km/s within 130 km from the hypocenter and up to 2.3 km/s over other areas on the fault. Thus, the region near the vicinity of the hypocenter with lower rupture velocity had higher slip amplitude, strongly suggesting brittle failure on a high friction fault. Based on ASTF results, our proposed method offers another way of directly detecting the kinematic source parameters of earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
The Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault are two major neighboring faults of the Longmen–Shan fault zone where the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred. To study the influence of the Wenchuan event on these two active faults, we calculate changes of Coulomb stress on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault caused by the Wenchuan mainshock. Our results indicate that the Coulomb stress in the northern section (Zone A) of the Longquan–Shan fault is increased by 0.07–0.10 bars, that in the middle section (Zone B) by 0.04–0.11 bars, and that in the southern section (Zone C) shows almost no change. For the Huya fault, the Coulomb stress is decreased by 0.01–0.03 bars in the northern section (Zone A), 0.10–0.35 bars in the middle section (Zone B), and nearly 0.5 bars in the southern section (Zone C). The epicenter distribution of small earthquakes (ML ⩾ 1.5) on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault after the Wenchuan earthquake is consistent with the distribution of the Coulomb stress change. This implies that the Wenchuan earthquake may have triggered small events on the Longquan–Shan fault, but inhibited those on the Huya fault. We then use the rate/state friction law to calculate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the study region for the next decade. They include the distribution of b-values, magnitude of completeness (Mc), the background seismicity rate, a value of Aσn and the duration for the transient effect (ta) in the study region. We also estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities on the neighboring faults after the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results show that, the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the Longquan–Shan has a slight increase, being 7% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade, but the earthquake probability in the Huya region is reduced obviously, being 5–20%, 7–26% and 3–9% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade in sections A, B and C of the Huya fault, respectively.  相似文献   

3.
During the 1st decade of the 21st century, the study area of Talala, Saurashtra of western India witnessed three damaging earthquakes of moderate magnitude, year 2007 [Mw 5.0; Mw 4.8] and in the year 2011 [Mw 5.1] that generated public panic in the region. The last damaging moderate earthquake of the 20th October 2011 in Talala region (21.09°N;70.45°E), located at about 200 km south to the devastating 2001 Bhuj (23.412°N, 70.232°E) mainshock (Mw 7.6), jolted the entire Saurashtra region of Gujarat. A long series of aftershocks followed hereafter, recorded at nine seismograph/accelerograph stations. Hypocenters of aftershocks were relocated accurately using absolute and relative travel time (double-difference) method. In this study, we, for the first time, determined 3-D tomographic images of the upper crust beneath the 2011 Talala earthquake source zone by inverting about 1135 P and 1125 S wave arrival time data. Estimates of seismic velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson’s ratio (σ) structures offer a reliable interpretation of crustal heterogeneities and their bearing on geneses of moderate earthquakes and their aftershock sequences beneath the source zone. It is found that the 2011 Talala mainshock hypocenter depth (6 km) is located near the boundary of the low and high velocity (Vp, Vs) and the source zone is associated with low-σ anomalies guarded by the prominent high-σ anomalies along the active fault zone having strike-slip motion beneath the earthquake source zone. The pattern of distribution of (Vp, Vs, σ) and its association with occurrences of aftershocks provide seismological evidence for the neo-tectonics in the region having left lateral strike-slip motion of the fault.  相似文献   

4.
Like the tsunamis that accompanied the 2010 Maule (Chile) and the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2005 Nias earthquakes, the tsunamis associated with the Tōhoku, Japan (Mw 9.0), earthquake of 11 March 2011 may owe more to slip on superficial faults on the sea floor than to the megathrust itself. The pattern of shallow aftershocks during the 24 h immediately following the main shock suggests that the crucial structures include faults in the upper plate, in the accretionary wedge landwards of the trench and on the outer rise. Seafloor geodetic observation could thus usefully contribute routinely to local hazard preparedness.  相似文献   

5.
Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.  相似文献   

6.
Static stress changes caused by megathrust slip of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake considerably affected the seismicity patterns in inland areas, resulting in the occurrence of numerous earthquakes along several active faults in Japan. On June 30, 2011, the Mj 5.4 central Nagano earthquake occurred at a shallow depth of 5 km, indicating the reactivation of the Gofukuji fault in Central Japan. This study was undertaken to elucidate spatial and temporal changes of 3He/4He ratios around a source region before and after an inland earthquake using both existing and new and helium isotope data from hot spring and drinking water wells. Gas samples near the Gofukuji fault and its surrounding active faults are characterized by an increase in postseismic 3He/4He ratios. In contrast, the postseismic ratios decreased by up to about 30% away from the mainshock epicenter. Episodic faulting could either release stored crustal (radiogenic) helium from host rocks, or enhance the transfer of mantle volatiles through permeable fault zones, such that subsequent fluid flow near to the source region could then explain the spatio-temporal variations in 3He/4He ratios.  相似文献   

7.
The May 12, 2008, Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake was induced by failure of two of the major faults of the Longmen Shan thrust fault zone along the eastern margin of Tibet Plateau. Our study focused on trenches across the Yingxiu–Bichuan fault, the central fault in the Longmen Shan belt that has a coseismic surface break of more than 200 km long. Trenching excavation across the 2008 earthquake rupture on three representative sites reveals the styles and amounts of the deformation and paleoseismicity along the Longmen Shan fault. Styles of coseismic deformation along the 2008 earthquake rupture at these three sites represent three models of deformation along a thrust fault. Two of the three trench exposures reveal one pre-2008 earthquake event, which is coincident with the pre-existing scarps. Based on the observation of exposed stratigraphy and structures in the trenches and the geomorphic expressions on ground surface, we interpret the 2008 earthquake as a characteristic earthquake along this fault. The interval of reoccurrence of large earthquake events on the Central Longmen Shan fault (the Yingxiu–Beichuan fault) can be inferred to be about 11,000 years according to 14C and OSL dating. The amounts of the vertical displacement and shortening across the surface rupture during the 2008 earthquake are determined to be 1.0–2.8 m and 0.15–1.32 m, respectively. The shortening rate and uplift rate are then estimated to be 0.09–0.12 mm/yr and 0.18–0.2 mm/yr, respectively. It is indicated that the deformation is absorbed mainly not by shortening, but by uplift along the rupture during the 2008 earthquake.  相似文献   

8.
The catastrophic earthquakes that recently (September 4th, 2010 and February 22nd, 2011) hit Christchurch, New Zealand, show that active faults, capable of generating large-magnitude earthquakes, can be hidden beneath the Earth’s surface. In this article we combine near-surface paleoseismic data with deep (<5 km) onshore seismic-reflection lines to explore the growth of normal faults over short (<27 kyr) and long (>1 Ma) timescales in the Taranaki Rift, New Zealand. Our analysis shows that the integration of different timescale datasets provides a basis for identifying active faults not observed at the ground surface, estimating maximum fault-rupture lengths, inferring maximum short-term displacement rates and improving earthquake hazard assessment. We find that fault displacement rates become increasingly irregular (both faster and slower) on shorter timescales, leading to incomplete sampling of the active-fault population. Surface traces have been recognised for <50% of the active faults and along ≤50% of their lengths. The similarity of along-strike displacement profiles for short and long time intervals suggests that fault lengths and maximum single-event displacements have not changed over the last 3.6 Ma. Therefore, rate changes are likely to reflect temporal adjustments in earthquake recurrence intervals due to fault interactions and associated migration of earthquake activity within the rift.  相似文献   

9.
A damaging and widely felt moderate (Mw 5.0) earthquake occurred in the Talala region of Saurashtra, Gujarat (western India) on November 6, 2007. The highly productive sequence comprised about 1300 micro earthquakes (M > 0.5) out of which 325 of M ? 1.5 that occurred during November 6, 2007–January 10, 2008 were precisely located. The spatial aftershock distribution revealed a NE–SW striking fault in accordance with the centroid moment tensor solution, which in turn implies left-lateral motion. The orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly orientated geological fault identified in the area from satellite imagery and field investigation.The aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of frequency–magnitude distribution, spatial fractal dimension, D, and slip ratio (ratio of the slip occurred on the primary fault to the total slip) were examined with the purpose to identify the properties of the sequence. The high b-value (1.18 ± 0.01) may be attributed to the paucity of the larger (M ? 4.0) aftershocks and reveals crustal heterogeneity and low stress regime. The high p-value (1.10 ± 0.39), implying fast decay rate of aftershocks, evidences high surface heat flux. A value of the spatial fractal dimension (D) equal to 2.21 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and source in a two-dimensional plane that is being filled-up by fractures. A slip ratio of 0.42 reveals that more slip occurred on secondary fault systems.The static Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip of the main shock, enhanced off fault aftershock occurrence. The occurrence of a moderate earthquake (Mw 4.3) on October 5, 2008 inside a region of positive Coulomb stress changes supports the postulation on aftershock triggering. When the stress changes were resolved on a cross section including the stronger (M4.8) foreshock plane that is positioned adjacent to the main fault, it became evident that the activity continued there due to stress transfer from the main rupture.  相似文献   

10.
This study analyzed the rupture directivity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by using 100-s Rayleigh-wave travel-times, influenced by the finite source, to derive the fault parameters of the earthquake. The results demonstrated that the earthquake exhibited a slow rupture propagation with a rupture velocity of approximately 1.5–2.0 km/s and asymmetric bilateral faulting. The two rupture directions were N60°E and N127°E, with rupture lengths of approximately 276 km and 231 km, respectively. The rupture toward N60°E had a source duration of approximately 183 s, longer than that toward N127°E (approximately 156 s). Overall, the entire source duration of the earthquake faulting lasted approximately 183 s. Regarding historical seismicity in eastern Japan, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake not only ruptured a locked area in which large earthquakes have rarely occurred, but also ruptured the source regions of several historical earthquakes. With the exception of its slow rupture velocity and generation of a tsunami, the rupture features of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake were inconsistent with those of typical tsunami earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
On 21 March 2008, an Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which is in the same year as 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. These two earthquakes both took place in the Bayar Har block, while Yutian earthquake is located in the west edge and Wenchuan earthquake is in the east. The research on source characteristics of Yutian earthquake can serve to better understand Wenchuan earthquake mechanism. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of Yutian shock and its co-seismic deformation field by a sensitivity-based iterative fitting (SBIF) method. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite (Quickbird) images as well as D-InSAR data from the satellite Envisat ASAR, in conjunction with the analysis of seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 22 km long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in the Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and a simple structure with 1–3 m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5 m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone are seen many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks by collapse, exhibiting remarkable extension. The co-seismic deformation affected a big range 100 km × 40 km. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. The maximum subsidence displacement is ～2.6 m in the LOS, and the maximum uplift is 1.2 m. The maximum relative vertical dislocation reaches 4.1 m, which is 10 km distant from the starting rupture point to south. The 42 km-long seismogenic fault in the subsurface extends in NS direction as an arc, and it dipping angle changes from 70° near the surface to 52° at depth ～10 km. The slip on the fault plane is concentrated in the depth range 0–8 km, forming a belt of length 30 km along strike on the fault plane. There are three areas of concentrating slip, in which the largest slip is 10.5 m located at the area 10 km distant from the initial point of the rupture.  相似文献   

12.
A Mw 6.3 magnitude earthquake occurred on October 6, 2008 in southern Damxung County within the N–S trending Yangyi graben, which forms the northern section of the Yadong-Gulu rift of south-central Tibet. The earthquake had a maximum intensity of IX at the village of Yangyi (also Yangying) (29°43.3′N; 90°23.6′E) and resulted in 10 deaths and 60 injured in this sparsely populated region. Field observations and focal mechanism solutions show normal fault movement occurred along the NNE-trending western boundary fault of the Yangyi graben, in agreement with the felt epicenter, pattern of the isoseismal contours, and distribution of aftershocks. The earthquake and its tectonic relations were studied in detail to provide data on the seismic hazard to the nearby city of Lhasa.The Damxung earthquake is one of the prominent events along normal and strike-slip faults that occurred widely about Tibet before and after the 2008 Mw 7.9 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake. Analysis of these recent M ? 5.0 earthquake sequences demonstrate a kinematic relation between the normal, strike-slip, and reverse causative fault movements across the region. These earthquakes are found to be linked and the result of eastward extrusion of two large structural blocks of central Tibet. The reverse and oblique-slip surface faulting along the Longmenshan thrust belt at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau causing the Wenchuan earthquake, was the result of eastward directed compression and crustal shortening due to the extrusion. Prior to it, east–west extensional deformation indicated by normal and strike-slip faulting events across central Tibet, had led to a build up of the compression to the east. The subsequent renewal of extensional deformational events in central Tibet appears related to some drag effect due to the crustal shortening of the Wenchuan event. Unraveling the kinematical relation between these earthquake swarms is a very helpful approach for understanding the migration of strong earthquakes across Tibet.  相似文献   

13.
18th June, 2010 5.9 Mw earthquake at North Andaman triggered along NW–SE pre-existing fault with reverse fault mechanism. Macroseismic survey and GPS geodesy reveal maximum damages following NE–SW trend due to normal fault mechanism. Coulomb stress modeling for post- and inter-seismic earthquakes after the 2004 mega-earthquake show different stages of fault segment linkage at North Andaman. The present earthquake has been explained as co-shock due to asiesmic soft linkage of fault propagation.  相似文献   

14.
The Jiashian earthquake (ML 6.4) occurred on 4 March 2010. It was the largest inland event in southern Taiwan of 2010. The mainshock location was unexpected since it occurred in an area with relatively low background seismicity. In addition, reports of earthquake focal mechanisms do not fit with any known active fault geometry. In order to understand the origin of this earthquake, especially its rupture process, we perform a joint source inversion by using teleseismic body wave, GPS coseismic displacements and near field ground motion data. In this study, we considered a northwest–southeast trending fault with a northeast dip retrieved from GPS coseismic data and aftershocks distribution. To analyze the detailed slip distribution in space and time, we used near field 3D Green’s functions provided by spectral-element method and a full time–space inversion technique. We find a complex rupture process with several slip patches distributed inside two main asperities. The slip map reveals a mean slip of 12.9 cm for a maximum slip of 27.3 cm leading to a Mw 6.47 for this event. The rupture initiates in the deepest portion of the fault at 20 km depth, and propagated upward up to 2 km depth to form the two asperities. The source time function of this event revealed two pulses corresponding to the two asperities, for a total duration time of about 16 s. Most aftershocks occurred near the upper boundary of the deepest asperity while no aftershocks are located close to the shallowest one. We infer that the locations of these slip patches are related to the surrounding fault systems that may have restricted the rupture propagation during the earthquake.  相似文献   

15.
A combination of double couple (DC) and non-double couple (non-DC) earthquakes hit Eastern Turkey, in the vicinity of Lake Van, in October–November 2011. Teleseismic waveform inversion was used to find the best fitting double couple and deviatoric moment tensors on four large and medium sized events of this sequence. The aftershocks of the Mw = 7.1, 2011/10/23:10:41 earthquake built a NE–SW aftershock zone where the Mw = 5.7, 2011/10/25 aftershock was located. The Mw = 6.0, 2011/10/23:20:45 event was located around the terminal section of the Mw = 7.1 aftershock zone which might be triggered by this event (aftershocks of this event propagated from W to E to build a W–E aftershock zone where the Mw = 5.7, 2011/11/09 event was located). For these events the calculated best fitting grid search parameters are not very different from GCMT results, but DC components, after deviatoric moment tensor inversion, represent much more difference with GCMT and grid search. The important feature of deviatoric moment tensor inversion is the existence of a notable compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) component on the Mw = 5.7, 2011/10/25:14:55 and Mw = 5.7, 2011/11/09:19:23 aftershocks. According to the regional seismotectonics, these CLVD components could be related to crustal rheology and volcanic activities. Based on the results, the existence of a cylindrical aftershock distribution could be taken as an indication of induced seismic activity on complex-ring structures resulted from magma or water–magma injection. However, the existence of Karst like structures suggests that the CLVD components may be under the influence of high-pressure water or gas injection rather than magma.  相似文献   

16.
Daily resolution data retrieved from the 1243 ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in Japan are utilized to expose surface displacements before the destructive M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (March 11, 2011). Variations in the residual GPS data, in which effects of the long-term plate movements, short-term noise and frequency-dependent variations have been removed through a band-pass filter via the Hilbert–Huang transform, are compared with parameters of the focal mechanism associated with the Tohoku-Oki earthquake for validation. Analytical results show that the southward movements, which were deduced from the residual displacements and agree with the strike of the rupture fault, became evident on the 65th day before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. This observation suggests that the shear stress played an important role in the seismic incubation period. The westward movements, which are consistent with the angle of the maximum horizontal compressive stress, covered entire Japan and formed an impeded area (142°E, 42°N) about 75 km away from the epicenter on the 47th day prior to the earthquake. The horizontal displacements integrated with the vertical movements from the residual GPS data are very useful to construct comprehensive images in diagnosing the surface deformation from destructive earthquakes along the subduction zone.  相似文献   

17.
The convergence of the Nazca and South American plates along the subduction margin of the central Andes results in large subduction earthquakes and tectonic activity along major fault systems. Despite its relevance, the paleoseismic record of this region is scarce, hampering our understanding about the relationship between the Andes building and earthquake occurrence. In this study, we used the U-series disequilibrium method to obtain absolute ages of paleoearthquake events associated with normal displacements along the active Mejillones and Salar del Carmen faults in the Coastal Range of the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. The 230Th–234U disequilibrium ages in co-seismic gypsum salts sampled along the fault traces together with marine evidences indicate that earthquakes occurred at ca. 29.7 ± 1.7 ka, 11 ± 4 ka and 2.4 ± 0.8 ka. When coupled with paleoseismic marine and radiocarbon (14C) records in the nearby Mejillones Bay evidencing large dislocations along the Mejillones Fault, the geochronological dataset presented here is consistent with the notion that gypsum salts formed during large earthquakes as a result of co-seismic dilatancy pumping of saline waters along the major faults. Based on maximum observed cumulative vertical offsets in the studied faults, this phenomena could have occurred episodically at a rate in the order of 1:40 to 1:50 with respect to the very large subduction earthquakes during the latest Pleistocene–Holocene period. The results presented here reveal that the U-series disequilibrium method can be successfully applied to date the gypsum salts deposited along faults during seismic events, and therefore directly constrain the age of large paleoearthquakes in hyperarid and seismically active zones.  相似文献   

18.
In the paper we report the state-of-the-art of seismicity study in the Baikal rift system and the general results obtained. At present, the regional earthquake catalog for fifty years of the permanent instrumental observations consists of over 185,000 events. The spatial distribution of the epicenters, which either gather along well-delineated belts or in discrete swarms is considered in detail for different areas of the rift system. At the same time, the hypocenters are poorly constrained making it difficult to identify the fault geometry. Clustered events like aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms are typical patterns in the region; moreover, aftershocks of M ⩾ 4.7 earthquakes make up a quarter of the whole catalog. The maximum magnitude of earthquakes recorded instrumentally is MLH7.6 for a strike-slip event in the NE part of the Baikal rift system and MLH6.8 for a normal fault earthquake in the central part of the rift system (Lake Baikal basin). Predominant movement type is normal faulting on NE striking faults with a left lateral strike-slip component on W–E planes. In conclusion, some shortcomings of the seismic network and data processing are pointed out.  相似文献   

19.
The study area is the Van earthquake region. It is located in the western section of the East Anatolian–Iranian plateau outside and to the east of the Karlıova triple junction. Based on the tectonic periods, the rock units exposed in the study area are classified into two common categories. These are the Pre-Late Pliocene paleotectonic units and the Plio-Quaternary neotectonic units. The Paleotectonic units are composed of the Yüksekova Complex of Campanian–Maastrichtian age and the Kırkgeçit Formation of Oligo-Miocene age. The paleotectonic units are intensely deformed (folded, thrust to reverse faulted and converted into an imbricate stack). The neotectonic units are composed of fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary facies with volcanic interclations. It is full of soft-sedimentary structures such as deltaic structure, slump fold, sand dikes to sills and normal to reverse types of growth faults which imply to a sedimentation accompanied by both a volcanic activity and active tectonics. Originally the Paleotectonic units are overlain with an angular unconformity by the nearly flat-lying neotectonic units. This angular unconformity and the big difference in the deformational patterns of both categories of rock units indicate an inversion in tectonic regime in Late Pliocene. The new tectonic regime is the strike-slip faulting-dominated neotectonic regime. It is governed by an approximately N–S-directed compression, and composed of NW- to NE-trending strike-slip faults, N–S trending oblique-slip normal faults to fissures and the E–W trending thrust to reverse faults. Most of thrust to reverse faults are inherited from the Pre-Late Pliocene paleotectonic regime. Some of them have reactivated and led to the occurrence of large and devastative earthquakes. The last devastative seismic event is the 23 October 2011 Tabanlı (Van) earthquake of Mw = 7.2 that caused 644 deaths and moderate to heavy damage of ¼ of structures (28,532) in Van earthquake region. The source of the Tabanlı earthquake is the Everek erosional reverse fault. In addition the Tabanlı earthquake is the largest seismic event occurred till now in Turkey. It was followed by a series (over 6000) of small-sized aftershocks and severeal moderate-sized indepentent earthquakes of reverse, normal and strike-slip faulting origin. Both the field and new seismic data strongly reveal that the prominent tectonic regime in the East Anatolian plateau is the strike-slip neotectonic regime, not the tensional tectonic regime as has been reported in some previous works. The strike-slip faulting and related deformation are confined into the upper shallowing part (up to 40 km) of the crust, whilst the extensional deformations are the subcrustal processes and being taking place in a squashy zone at the depths of approximately 40–60 km.  相似文献   

20.
We perform 3D modeling of earthquake generation of the Xianshuihe fault, southwestern China, which is a highly active strike-slip fault with a length of about 350 km, in order to understand earthquake cycles and segmentations for a long-term forecasting and earthquake nucleation process for a short-term forecasting. Historical earthquake data over the last 300 years indicates repeated periods of seismic activity, and migration of large earthquake along the fault during active seismic periods. To develop the 3D model of earthquake cycles along the Xianshuihe fault, we use a rate- and state-dependent friction law. After analyzing the result, we find that the earthquakes occur in the reoccurrence intervals of 400–500 years. Simulation result of slip velocity distribution along the fault at the depth of 10 km during 2694 years along the Xianshuihe fault indicates that since the third earthquake cycle, the fault has been divided into 3 parts. Some earthquake ruptures terminate at the bending part of the fault line, which may means the shape of the fault line controls how earthquake ruptures. The change of slip velocity and displacement at 10 km depth is more tremendous than the change of the shallow and deep part of the fault and the largest slip velocity occurs at the depth of 10 km which is the exact depth of the seismic zone where fast rupture occurs.  相似文献   

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