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1.
总结近年来在汉江上游古洪水研究成果的基础之上,采用文献资料分析和洪水模拟计算方法,对汉江上游6个沉积剖面纪录的东汉时期古洪水事件进行了年代考证和洪水模拟计算。结果表明,通过分析文献记载的汉江上游东汉时期洪水影响范围、强度和程度,以及结合洪痕沉积规律,在时间上考证认为这6个沉积剖面记录的东汉时期古洪水事件可能是东汉建安二年（197年）九月的一次特大洪水事件。选取合适的河槽横断面和糙率系数,采用HEC-RAS模型对距离较近的4个沉积面记录的东汉时期古洪水事件进行洪水模拟计算,模拟洪水位与各剖面依据古洪水SWD恢复的洪水位误差在-0.18%~0.25%,而且模拟的1983年洪水位与剖面及其附近发现的1983年洪痕水位误差小于0.25%,说明洪水模拟计算选取的河槽横断面和水文参数准确、可靠,从洪水模拟计算的角度也说明了汉江上游沉积记录的东汉时期古洪水事件可能为一次特大洪水事件。该研究结果不仅延长了汉江上游洪水序列,而且也为汉江上游水利工程建设、水资源管理和防洪减灾等提供重要的水文资料。 相似文献
2.
In this paper, a spatiotemporal framework is developed for identifying building vulnerabilities and content evacuations during riverine flooding events. This work investigates the spatiotemporal properties required to trigger building contents evacuations in the floodplain during a flood event. The spatial properties for building risks are based on topography, flood inundation, building location, building elevation, and road access to determine five categories of vulnerability, vulnerable basement, flooded basement, vulnerable first-floor, flooded first-floor, and road access. Using this framework, a model designed to track the spatiotemporal patterns of building evacuations is presented. The model is based upon real-time flood forecast predictions that are linked with building properties to create a model that captures the spatiotemporal ordering of building vulnerabilities and building content evacuations. Applicable to different communities at risk from flooding, the evacuation model is applied to a historical flood for a university campus, demonstrating how the defined elements are used to derive a pattern of vulnerability and evacuation for a campus threatened by severe flooding. 相似文献
3.
Long-term morphodynamic evolution and the equilibrium mechanism of a flood channel in the Yangtze Estuary (China) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yong-Hong Wang Peter V. Ridd Hua-Lin Wu Jia-Xue Wu Huan-Ting Shen 《Geomorphology》2008,99(1-4):130-138
The stability of flood channels has attracted considerable attention because of their complicated interactions with the prevailing hydrodynamics and importance in ship navigation. This research examines long-term morphodynamic evolution in the Yangtze Estuary from 1861 to 2002 and the equilibrium mechanism of the Xinqiao Channel in the Yangtze Estuary by digitizing 15 selected maritime charts and calculating the volume of the channel. Although the total period of channel development is much longer than the historical data used in this paper, three stages are identified during the study period: the first embryonic stage (66 years), the second formation stage (33 years) and the third equilibrium stage (45 years). Variations in coastline location, channel volume, and hydrodynamics in the channel during the three stages indicate that the channel equilibrium was reached and maintained when the channel direction was aligned with the direction of offshore tidal wave propagation. Variations in river and sediment discharges affect erosion and deposition in the channel and thus channel geometry. However, future reduction in sediment supply by 10–33% due to the ongoing river engineering projects would increase the volume of the Xinqiao Channel only by 1–3%. It seems unlikely that the above change in sediment discharge will disrupt the equilibrium of the Xinqiao Channel. 相似文献
4.
J.-P. Jenny B. Wilhelm F. Arnaud P. Sabatier C. Giguet Covex A. Mélo B. Fanget E. Malet E. Ployon M. E. Perga 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,51(4):469-483
A high-resolution sedimentological study of Lake Bourget was conducted to reconstruct the flood frequency and intensity (or magnitude) in the area over the last 350 years. Particular emphasis was placed on investigating the spatio-temporal distribution of flood deposits in this large lake basin. The thicknesses of deposits resulting from 30 flood events of the Rhône River were collected over a set of 24 short sediment cores. Deposit thicknesses were compared with instrumental data for the Rhône River discharge for the period from 1853 to 2010. The results show that flood frequency and intensity cannot be reliably reconstructed from a single core because of the inhomogeneous flood-deposit geometry in such a large lake. From all documented flood-deposit thicknesses, volumes of sediment brought into the lake during each flood event were computed through a Kriging procedure and compared with the historical instrumental data. The results show, in this study, that reconstructed sediment volumes are well correlated to maximal flood discharges. This significant correlation suggests that the increase of embankment and dam settlements on the Rhône River during the last 150 years has not significantly affected the transport of the smallest sediment fraction during major flood events. Hence, assessment of the flood-sediment volumes deposited in the large Lake Bourget is the only way to reliably reconstruct the flood frequency and intensity. 相似文献
5.
G.L. Heritage A.R.G. Large B.P. Moon A.L. Birkhead 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2003,85(1):1-11
Extreme flood events are considered by many researchers to be very important in controlling the development of semi‐arid bedrock‐influenced river systems. Accurate gauging of such events is often impossible, however, as gauges are drowned and often damaged during the event. A methodology for estimating flood discharge for bedrock‐influenced channels is presented that reconstructs hydrometric characteristics of the peak flow and relates these to the roughness character of the river channel in question. The method is evaluated using peak water‐surface slope data relating to the extreme floods of February 2000 along the Sabie and Letaba rivers, located respectively in the Mpumalanga and Northern Provinces, South Africa. The data, in the form of strandline measurements, were taken at hydraulically relevant points along the long profile of both rivers. The resultant data are utilised together with published high flow channel resistance figures, based on the channel morphology of the Sabie and Letaba rivers, to generate peak flow estimates for a number of locations along both rivers. Comparisons are made between the frictional discharge peak flow estimates, velocity‐area and hydrologic estimates of peak flow. These comparisons indicate that the method can produce discharge estimates with an accuracy of ±10% and ± 35% respectively. 相似文献
6.
黄河中游马莲河历史与现代洪痕沉积与水文学研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对马莲河流域深入调查研究,在马莲河下游峡谷峭壁发现了一组4个显著的洪痕。洪痕沉积物分析看出,马莲河洪水悬移质泥沙以粉沙为主,粘粒和沙粒含量都较低,磁化率值也很低。将这些数据与流域内马家原剖面黄土土壤的的分析结果对比,可知马莲河现代洪痕沉积物是暴雨洪水对于流域内黄土和土壤侵蚀、搬运沉积形成。采用面积－比降法对该组洪痕所记录的4次洪水事件进行了洪峰流量恢复计算。表明高于常水位3.3 m、5.5 m、6.7 m洪痕洪峰流量分别为1 170m3/s、4 060 m3/s、5 690 m3/s。它们与雨落坪水文站观测2005、2003、1977年的洪水洪峰流量值相当,误差小于5 %。最高洪痕高出常水位10～12 m,计算恢复其洪峰流量为13 980 m3/s,洪水发生年代为1841年（清代道光21年）。这些研究结果对于马莲河流域的防洪减灾、水利水电工程设计和水土流失防治具有重要科学意义。 相似文献
7.
Improved estimates of UK flood risk during a period of increased climatic variability place challenges on existing methods that rely on short instrumental records. This paper examines the value of using historical data (both documentary and epigraphic) to augment existing gauged records for the River Tay at Perth as part of a multi-method approach to assessing flood risk. Single station and pooled methods are compared with flood risk estimates based on an augmented historical series (1815–2000) using the Generalized Logistic and Generalized Pareto distributions. The value of using an even longer, but less reliable, extended historical series (1210–2000) is also examined. It is recommended that modelling flood risk for return periods >100 years should incorporate historical data, where available, and that a multi-method approach using a high threshold Generalized Pareto distribution can also add confidence in flood risk estimates for return periods <100 years based on standard methods. 相似文献
8.
SPATIO‐TEMPORAL SPECIFICS OF HYDRO‐GEOMORPHIC PROCESSES IN HEADWATER PARTS OF MID‐MOUNTAINS RECONSTRUCTED BASED ON TREE‐RING DATA: A CASE STUDY FROM THE HRUBÝ JESENÍK MOUNTAINS (CZECH REPUBLIC) 
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下载免费PDF全文 Debris flows and debris floods cause frequent geomorphic hazards, even in the mid‐mountains of Central Europe. In the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Eastern Sudetes, Czech Republic), strong anthropogenic interventions have created specific conditions for erosion, transport and accumulation of material released by debris flow/flood events. We present a detailed spatio‐temporal reconstruction of the hydro‐geomorphic process activity in two adjacent sub‐catchments using dendrogeomorphic methods applied to the steep, narrow channels. An analysis of 172 sampled trees [Picea Abies (L.) Karst.] revealed 14 torrential events since 1943 in the Klepá?ský stream sub‐catchment and 11 events since 1897 in the Keprnický stream sub‐catchment. Identical events were identified in 1965, 1991, 1997, 2002 and 2010. The event return periods were comparable with return periods from the foothills of the European Alps. A higher frequency of events in the first sub‐catchment may be caused by the presence of a deep‐seated landslide, steeper slopes and a higher susceptibility to shallow slope deformations. Different spatial patterns of events were presented using the Kernel Density analysis in ArcMap 10.1. Clusters of affected trees in the valley floor during the last decades may be due to increased erosion below the check dams and increased accumulation above. The presence of check dams and slope stabilization works since the 1960s has mitigated the processes in several gullies, but due to the current non‐interventional management, the risk of their damage is increasing, particularly when increased activity is observed in the adjacent unprotected gullies. 相似文献
9.
塔里木河现代河道冲淤变化的探讨 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3
通过对现代塔里木河干流河道大断面的泥沙堆积情况、河道的基本特征和上游来水来沙条件的研究，认为塔里木河河道冲淤较大，主槽摆动频繁；涨水时低滩地淤积，落水时冲刷；每经一个汛期，滩面有所抬高；长时期内滩槽相对高差变化不大；河道淤积量大小主要取决于上游来沙、来水量，尤其是汛期水沙量对河道变迁的意义重大 相似文献
10.
提高黄河下游游荡段的输沙能力是河道治理的主要任务,而河道输沙效率（排沙比）受到来水来沙条件和河床边界条件的共同影响。本文基于1971—2016年花园口—高村河段（简称花高段）的实测水沙及地形资料,计算了花高段的平均河相系数及水沙条件（来沙系数和水流冲刷强度）,从汛期和场次洪水2个时间尺度,定量分析了排沙比与水沙条件及前一年汛后主槽形态之间的响应关系。分析结果表明：① 汛期和场次洪水排沙比与来沙系数呈负相关,与水流冲刷强度呈正相关,临界的汛期不淤来沙系数为0.012 kg?s/m 6,场次洪水排沙比与来沙系数及水量比的决定系数为0.76;② 游荡段排沙比与河相系数呈负相关,当河相系数大于15 /m 0.5时,河段排沙比基本小于1;③ 以来沙系数与河相系数为自变量的汛期排沙比计算式的决定系数为0.82,计算精度较高,对于场次洪水排沙比而言,断面形态的影响权重大于来沙系数。这些排沙比计算公式能够反映游荡段的输沙特点,有助于定量掌握断面形态及水沙条件对河道输沙能力的影响。 相似文献
11.
基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于长江流域212个气象站点1961-2017年的日降水资料,借助标准化加权平均降水指数（SWAP）,结合多门槛游程理论,提出一种识别旱涝急转事件的新方法。方法应用于旱涝急转事件高发的长江流域,分别从典型站点旱涝事件分析、区域典型旱涝急转事件分析、旱涝急转事件时空分布规律分析等角度,探讨了长江流域1961-2017年旱涝急转事件规律。结论显示：①SWAP指数对于旱涝事件具有良好的识别能力。②聚类方法可聚合相似旱涝急转事件,2011年长江中下游旱涝急转事件中干旱事件占主导地位,持续时间远长于洪涝事件。③ 长江流域旱涝急转事件呈现明显的区域规律：上游发生频率较低,中下游偏高;此外,长江流域多数分区近期旱涝急转事件发生频率呈现上升趋势。研究结果表明,基于SWAP指数并结合多门槛游程理论的方法能够比较准确地识别旱涝急转事件,可进一步应用于旱涝急转事件的预测及评估中。 相似文献
12.
DAVID MORCHE KARL-HEINZ SCHMIDT TOBIAS HECKMANN FLORIAN HAAS 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2007,89(1):5-19
The catchment of the River Partnach, a torrent situated in a glacial valley in the Northern Calcareous Alps of Bavaria/Germany, was affected by a high‐magnitude flood on 22/23 August 2005 with a peak discharge of more than 16 m3s‐1 at the spring and about 50 m3s‐1 at the catchment outlet. This flood was caused by a long period of intense rainfall with a maximum intensity of 230 mm per day. During this event, a landslide dam, which previously held a small lake, failed. The flood wave originating from the dam breach transported a large volume of sediment (more than 50 000 m3) derived from bank erosion and the massive undercutting of a talus cone. This caused a fundamental transformation of the downstream channel system including the redistribution of large woody debris and channel switching. Using terrestrial survey and aerial photography, erosional and depositional consequences of the event were mapped, pre‐ and post‐event surfaces were compared and the sediment budget of the event calculated for ten consecutive channel reaches downstream of the former lake. According to the calculations more than 100 000 tonnes of sediment were eroded, 75% of which was redeposited within the channel and the proximal floodplain. A previous large flood which occurred a few weeks prior to the August 2005 event had a significant effect on controlling the impact of this event. 相似文献
13.
Although studies of sediment transport in steep and coarse-grained channels have been more numerous in recent years, the dynamics of sediment transport in step–pool river systems remain poorly understood. This paper investigates displacements of individual clasts through Spruce Creek (Québec, Canada), a classic step–pool channel, and the effects of the channel morphology on the path length of the clasts. Passive integrated transponder tags (PIT) were used to track the displacement of 196 individual particles over a range of discharges including the bankfull stage. Clasts were tracked after five sequences of flood events. The results showed that the distance distributions match a two-parameter Gamma model. Equal mobility transport occurs for the particle size investigated during each sequence of flood events. Mean travel distance of the clasts can be estimated from excess stream power, and the mobility of the clasts is more than an order of magnitude less than the model reported in riffle–pool channels. The dominant morphological length scale of the bed also controls the path length of the clasts. These results confirm some preliminary observations on sediment transport in step–pool channels. 相似文献
14.
The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation: comparison of a zoning and a smoothing approach 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue. 相似文献
15.
Recent large-magnitude floods and their impact on valley-floor environments of northeastern Yellowstone 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Lamar River watershed of northeastern Yellowstone contains some of the most diverse and important habitat in the national park. Broad glacial valley floors feature grassland winter range for ungulates, riparian vegetation that provides food and cover for a variety of species, and alluvial channels that are requisite habitat for native fish. Rapid Neogene uplift and Quaternary climatic change have created a dynamic modern environment in which catastrophic processes exert a major influence on riverine–riparian ecosystems. Uplift and glacial erosion have generated high local relief and extensive cliffs of friable volcaniclastic bedrock. As a result, steep tributary basins produce voluminous runoff and sediment during intense precipitation and rapid snowmelt. Recent major floods on trunk streams deposited extensive overbank gravels that replaced loamy soils on flood plains and allowed conifers to colonize valley-floor meadows. Tree-ring dating identifies major floods in 1918, ca. 1873, and possibly ca. 1790. In 1996 and 1997, discharge during snowmelt runoff on Soda Butte Creek approached the 100-year flood estimated by regional techniques, with substantial local bank erosion and channel widening. Indirect estimates show that peak discharges in 1918 were approximately three times greater than in 1996, with similar duration and much greater flood plain impact. Nonetheless, 1918 peak discharge reconstructions fall well within the range of maximum recorded discharges in relation to basin area in the upper Yellowstone region. The 1873 and 1918 floods produced lasting impacts on the channel form and flood plain of Soda Butte Creek. Channels may still be locally enlarged from flood erosion, and net downcutting has occurred in some reaches, leaving the pre-1790 flood plain abandoned as a terrace. Gravelly overbank deposits raise flood-plain surfaces above levels of frequent inundation and are well drained, therefore flood-plain soils are drier. Noncohesive gravels also reduce bank stability and may have persistent effects on channel form. Overall, floods are part of a suite of catastrophic geomorphic processes that exert a very strong influence on landscape patterns and valley-floor ecosystems in northeastern Yellowstone. 相似文献
16.
全球变化与浙江洪水大势 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
根据历史和实测资料分析,对于全球变化下浙江近期洪水的运作大势,可得如下几点认识：（１）在未来的十几年之内,浙江省将处在枯水年占优势的阶段,但全球变化将使浙江洪水的时空变化更为剧烈,使沿海地区的洪水灾害更为严重。（２）由于浙江省的大中洪水一般都集中在太阳黑子活动的峰谷年前后,而近期的２００４年和２００９年分别是黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年,因此这两年前后必须予以足够的重视。（３）浙江洪水对厄尔尼诺现象具有较好的响应,因此厄尔尼诺同年或次年也必须引起足够的重视。（４）根据浙江历史上的台风重灾年资料,利用灰色灾变预测分析,可得浙江未来第一、第二和第三个台风重灾年分别为２００１、２００４和２００８年,其中后两个台风重灾年与太阳黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年是大致吻合的。（５）植被破坏、河道设障等人类活动会产生一定的增灾效应,从而使浙江未来的洪水灾害更为严重。 相似文献
17.
Majority of rice cultivation areas in the Philippines are susceptible to excessive flooding owing to intense rainfall events. The study introduces the use of fine scale flood inundation modelling to map cultivation areas in Apalit, a rice-producing municipality located in the province of Pampanga in the Philippines. The study used a LiDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM), river discharge and rainfall data to generate flood inundation maps using LISFLOOD-FP. By applying spatial analysis, rice cultivation zone maps were derived and four cultivation zones are proposed. In areas where both depth and duration exceed threshold values set in this study, varieties tolerant to stagnant flooding and submergence are highly recommended in Zone 1, where flood conditions are least favorable for any existing traditional lowland irrigation varieties. The study emphasizes that a decline in yield is likely as increasing flood extents and longer submergence periods may cause cultivation areas for traditional irrigated lowland varieties to decrease over time. This decrease in yield may be prevented by using varieties most suitable to the flooding conditions as prescribed in the rice zone classification. The method introduced in this study could facilitate appropriate rice cultivation in flood-prone areas. 相似文献
18.
Reconceptualising coarse sediment delivery problems in rivers as catchment-scale and diffuse 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper assesses river channel management activities in the context of the interaction between coarse sediment delivery, climate change, river channel response and flood risk. It uses two main sources of evidence: (1) an intensive instrumentation of an upland river catchment using both traditional hydrometric and novel sediment sensing methods; and (2) a sediment delivery model that combines a treatment of sediment generation from mass failure with a treatment of the connectivity of this failed material to the drainage network. The field instrumentation suggests that the precipitation events that deliver sediment from hillslopes to the drainage network are different to those that transfer sediment within the network itself. Extreme events, that could occur at any time in the year (i.e. they are not dependent on wet antecedent conditions), were crucial for sediment delivery. However, sustained high river flows were responsible for the majority of transfer within the river itself. Application of three downscaling methods to climate model predictions for the 2050s and 2080s suggested a significant increase in the number and potential volume of delivery events by the 2050s, regardless of the climate downscaling scenario used. First approximations suggested that this would translate into annual bed level aggradation rates of between 0.10 and 0.20 m per year in the downstream main channel reaches. Second, the importance of this delivery for flood risk studies was confirmed by simulating the effects of 16 months of measured in-channel simulation with river flows scaled for climate change to the 2050s and 2080s. Short-term sedimentation could result in similar magnitude increases in inundated area for 1 in 0.5 and 1 in 2 year floods to those predicted for the 2050s in relation to increases in flow magnitude. Finally, we were able to develop an alternative approach to river management in relation to coarse sediment delivery, based upon reducing the rates of coarse sediment delivery through highly localised woodland planting, under the assumption that reducing delivery rates should reduce the rate of channel migration and hence the magnitude of the bank erosion problem. Thus, the paper demonstrates the need to conceptualise local river management problems in upland river environments as point scale manifestations of a diffuse sediment delivery process, with a much more explicit focus on the catchment scale, if our river systems are to become more insulated from the impacts of future climate changes. 相似文献
19.
20.
Christian Rickli Alexandre Badoux Dieter Rickenmann Nicolas Steeb Peter Waldner 《自然地理学》2018,39(6):542-564
We present results of two studies on the (1) potential wood load in steep headwater streams and (2) properties of large wood (LW) transported in mountain rivers during the large August 2005 flood event in Switzerland. Ten headwater reaches of 1000 m length were surveyed in different regions of Switzerland. The potential wood load was estimated for in-channel deadwood, and possible driving factors were explored. Correlations were found with dead wood volume on hillslopes and mean channel width. We established size distributions of LW pieces and identified probable recruitment processes. Four reaches were resurveyed after an exceptionally severe flood in August 2005, showing limited LW transport in channels but considerable wood input by mass wasting processes. In addition, characteristics of deposits of LW along mountain rivers affected by the 2005 flood were investigated. Diameter and length distribution of transported and deposited pieces were comparable to those of LW from steep headwater streams, yet with considerably fewer long pieces in the deposits of mountain rivers. Most LW pieces were fresh wood, indicating that the portion of in-channel deadwood transported during the 2005 flood was limited. Findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of LW dynamics in Alpine mountain streams. 相似文献