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1.
S. T. G. Raghukanth 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(5):1361-1386
India’s urban population has increased in the recent times. An earthquake near an urban agglomeration has the potential to
cause severe damage. In this article, seismicity parameters for region surrounding important urban agglomerations in India
are estimated. A comprehensive earthquake catalogue for the region (6°E–42°E latitude and 60°N–100°N longitude) including
historic and pre-historic events has been compiled from various sources. To estimate the parameters, past earthquake data
in a control region of radius 300 km has been assembled to quantify the seismicity around each urban agglomeration. The collected
earthquake data is first evaluated for its completeness. From combined (historical and instrumental) data, the seismicity
parameters b-value, seismic activity rate, λ and maximum expected magnitude (m
max
) have been obtained from the methodology proposed by Kijko and Graham (1998). The obtained activity rates indicate that region surrounding Guwahati urban agglomeration is the most seismically active
region followed by Srinagar, Patna, Amritsar and Chandigarh. 相似文献
2.
Representation and Analysis of the Earthquake Size Distribution: A Historical Review and Some New Approaches 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
T. Utsu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,155(2-4):509-535
—The size distribution of earthquakes has been investigated since the early 20th century. In 1932 Wadati assumed a power-law distribution n(E) = kE ?w for earthquake energy E and estimated the w value to be 1.7 ～ 2.1. Since the introduction of the magnitude-frequency relation by Gutenberg and Richter in 1944 in the form of log n(M) = a?bM, the spatial or temporal variation (or stability) of b value has been a frequently discussed subject in seismicity studies. The log n(M) versus M plots for some data sets exhibit considerable deviation from a straight line. Many modifications of the G-R relation have been proposed to represent such character. The modified equations include the truncated G-R equation, two-range G-R equation, equations with various additional terms to the original G-R equation. The gamma distribution of seismic moments is equivalent to one of these equations.¶In this paper we examine which equation is the most suitable to magnitude data from Japan and the world using AIC. In some cases, the original G-R equation is the most suitable, however in some cases other equations fit far better. The AIC is also a powerful tool to test the significance of the difference in parameter values between two sets of magnitude data under the assumption that the magnitudes are distributed according to a specified equation. Even if there is no significant difference in b value between two data sets (the G-R relation is assumed), we may find a significant difference between the same data sets under the assumption of another relation. To represent a character of the size distribution, there are indexes other than parameters in the magnitude-frequency distribution. The η value is one of such numbers. Although it is certain that these indexes vary among different data sets and are usable to represent a certain feature of seismicity, the usefulness of these indexes in some practical problems such as foreshock discrimination has not yet been established. 相似文献
3.
Earthquake disasters affect many structures and infrastructure simultaneously and collectively, and cause tremendous tangible
and intangible loss. In particular, catastrophic earthquakes impose tremendous financial stress on insurers who underwrite
earthquake insurance policies in a seismic region, resulting in possible insolvency. This study develops a stochastic net
worth model of an insurer undertaking both ordinary risk and catastrophic earthquake risk, and evaluates its solvency and
operability under catastrophic seismic risk. The ordinary risk is represented by a geometric Brownian motion process, whereas
the catastrophic earthquake risk is characterized by an earthquake-engineering-based seismic loss model. The developed model
is applied to hypothetical 4000 wood-frame houses in south-western British Columbia, Canada, to investigate the impact of
key insurance portfolio parameters to insurer’s ruin probability and business operability. The analysis results indicate:
(i) the physical effects of spatially correlated ground motions and local soil conditions at insured properties are significant;
(ii) the insurer’s earthquake risk exposure depends greatly on insurance arrangement (e.g. deductible and cap); and (iii)
the maintenance of sufficient initial surplus is critical in keeping insurer’s insolvency potential reasonably low, while
volatility of non-catastrophic risk is the key for insurer’s business stability. The results highlight the importance of adequate
balance between business stability under normal conditions and solvency under extreme conditions for efficient earthquake
risk management. Flexibility for determining an insurance arrangement would be beneficial for insurers to enhance their portfolio
performance and to offer more affordable coverage to their clients. 相似文献
4.
云南大理MS6.4地震和意大利拉奎拉（L'Aquila）MW6.3地震都因未能准确做出危险性预测给人民生命财产造成重大损失。哪些工作可能向政府和公众说明“哪里可能发生地震”、“最大量级多大”、“未来发震趋势如何”等问题都值得深入思考。本文根据天气预报思路,将地震活动按丛集性做分区处理,从各区M-t序列、3级地震活动性、2年来地震能量释放升级趋势、G-R关系等几方面分析了这两次地震主震发生前的地震活动特征,对比分析了它们之间的相似性。认为这两次地震的相似性有以下几点:①震源深度都比较浅。云南大理MS6.4地震震源深度8 km,意大利拉奎拉MW6.3地震震源深度8.8 km;②b值相近。云南大理MS6.4地震b=0.59,意大利拉奎拉MW6.3地震b=0.61。G-R关系外推震级相近,均为MGR6左右;③M-t图序列地震能量释放都呈升级趋势,地震活动也相似。平静打破后3级以上地震活跃,都出现震群现象,地震能量释放呈加速状态;④都属于前震-主震-余震型序列。意大利拉奎拉MW6.3地震主震前最大前震为MW5.2;云南大理MS6.4地震主震前最大前震为MS5.6,且前震震群特征明显。同时,本文讨论了按地震丛集性划分区域的合理性,认为按地震丛集性划分区域更容易把握区域地震活动的特点。这两次地震发生在不同区域,构造差异极大,属不同错动类型,用分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析,都得出较好的结果,再次说明了分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析对判断地震危险性的普适性特征,这为下一步产出“地震危险性云图”提供了依据。 相似文献
5.
Historically, the Moscow region regularly experienced rather weak but quite perceptible seismic vibrations produced by intermediate-depth
earthquakes of the Vrancea zone (Romania), located at a distance of 1400 km from Moscow. The coincidence of a number of unique
factors such as a slowly varying focal depth, predominant source mechanisms, weak attenuation of seismic radiation in the
north-northeast direction provide favorable conditions for application of the empirical Green’s function method. Using the
digital seismogram of the Vrancea Mw-5.8 earthquake recorded at the Moscow seismic station, we simulated synthetic seismograms of a scenario (expected maximum)
earthquake with Mw = 8.0, by application of the empirical Green’s function method adjusted for the given conditions. The calculation procedure
was verified using analog records of strong earthquakes available at the Moscow seismic station. Digital records of the Obninsk
seismic station included in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) system were used for additional control.
Here, the scenario earthquake was modeled using the data on a much stronger earthquake of 1990 (MW = 6.9). It is shown that, despite a certain scatter (quite adequately assessed in the scope of the method), the ultimate
estimates of expected seismic impacts are quite reliable and can be recommended for practical use. 相似文献
6.
Cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the research on evaluating
cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake science, social science, economical
science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and
the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements — the possible seismic casualty and economic loss during the future
earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surroundings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based
upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating city’s ability reducing
earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty,
the ratio of economic loss and recovery time are gained utilizing the cities’ prediction results of earthquake disasters which
were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities’ ability reducing
earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities’
ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing
cities’ earthquake disasters loss.
Foundation item: State Important Research Project of China (95130603). 相似文献
7.
Yusuf Bayrak Serkan Öztürk Hakan Çınar G. Ch. Koravos T. M. Tsapanos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(7):1367-1390
Complete data set of earthquakes in Turkey and the adjacent areas has been used in order to compute the ω values in 24 seismic
regions of Turkey. The parameter is obtained through Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values and is well
known as upper bound magnitude. This is an interpretation that no earthquake magnitude greater than ω can occur in a region. The results also estimate the
most probable magnitude for a time period of 100 years. The estimates of ω exceed the value of 7.00 in 20 of the 24 seismic
regions. An effort is also made to find a relation between the magnitude and the length of a fault in the complicated tectonics
of Turkey and the surrounding area. Earthquake hazard revealed as tables and maps are also considered for Turkey and the surrounding
area. 相似文献
8.
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10.
系统研究了新疆南北天山地震带内中强地震活动密集区与未来强震三要素之间的关系,试图寻找出适合年度危险区判定的地震活动性背景依据．结果表明：大多数强震均发生在中强地震活动相对密集区内及其边缘,且发生在边缘的概率较大;强震震级的大小与中强地震密集区的尺度有关．中强地震密集区的判别标准为：密集区尺度大于１５０ｋｍ,且其中地震密度（每平方度内地震个数）大于或等于４．最后,就密集区尺度、孕震区尺度、异常区尺度及震源区尺度间的关系进行了讨论．基本结论为：密集区的下限尺度即为孕震区尺度,而其上限尺度则为异常区尺度 相似文献
11.
地震震级频度的古登堡-里克特关系式(简称G-R关系式)一直是许多地震学问题研究的重要前提之一, 然而实际分布常常与这一关系式有一定的偏离。 文中利用已有的对含有凹凸体、 挤压雁列破裂及Ⅲ型剪切破裂等三种类型的岩石实验结果, 对接收到的声发射事件序列分别进行了分段地震震级频度的G-R关系式拟合, 重点考察了每一时间窗内表征实际地震震级频度与这一关系式偏离程度的线性拟合系数r值的变化。 研究结果表明, 含有凹凸体、 挤压雁列破裂的岩石声发射序列在加压－破裂过程中, 分段扫描分别计算得出的r值在标本失稳前出现数字下降的现象, 表明临近岩石失稳, 实际地震震级频度与G-R关系式偏离程度有加大的趋势; 而含Ⅲ型剪切破裂的岩石在标本失稳前, 声发射序列r值数字下降的现象不明显。 部分实际震例也表明, 在一些中强地震前也存在着这种偏离。 研究结果可能对利用区域地震活动资料探求部分类型的中强地震前可能存在的前兆信息具有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
12.
随着地震观测台网的加密,中国地震台网统一地震目录越来越完整。本文以地震资料丰富且研究程度较高的唐山地震为例,尝试利用中国地震台网统一地震目录直接确定断层面参数。将小震确定断层面参数的方法应用于唐山地震序列,对其断层面参数进行分段拟合,其中唐山断裂南段走向和倾角分别为213.4°和81.9°,唐山断裂北段走向和倾角分别为231.4°和89.1°,滦县段走向和倾角分别为125.1°和76.2°,卢龙断裂走向和倾角分别为46.1°和89.3°,宁河断裂走向和倾角分别为246.6°和81.8°。将所得结果与前人研究成果以及现今震源机制解参数研究的误差水平进行对比分析,证明了本研究具有较高的可靠性。本文研究结果表明,在地震活跃且地震定位精度较高的地区,中国地震台网统一地震目录可以广泛应用于断层面参数的确定。 相似文献
13.
利用活动断裂定量研究资料（滑动速率、古地震等）,结合新疆地区的地震构造环境特征分析,研究了典型潜在震源区大震复发模式,建立了具有区域特征的混合模型,以此评定了新疆地区典型潜在震源区大震的年发生率。混合模型由截断G-R关系模型和特征地震模型构成,计算时先分别计算两个模型的大震分震级档年发生率,然后根据潜在震源区地震地质资料的完备性情况、可靠程度以及大震孕育的区域性特征为两个模型的分震级档结果赋予一定权重,最后求两个模型的加权和。大震复发间隔的计算中利用汶川地震与集集地震的最大垂直位错和平均垂直位错统计关系约束了逆冲型断裂的平均位错量,潜源区的大震年发生率的计算考虑了级联破裂问题。结果表明,本研究所得高震级档大震年发生率比第三代、第四代地震区划图小,文中对这一现象产生的原因进行了初步分析。 相似文献
14.
We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands. 相似文献
15.
GPS studies in Turkey date back to the early 1990s, but were mostly focused on the seismically active North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS), or on the more populated Western Anatolia. Relatively few studies were made of the seismically less-active East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS), although it has the potential to produce large earthquakes. In this study, we present the results of a combination of geodetic and seismological data around the Karliova Triple Junction (KTJ), which lies at the intersection of the North- and East Anatolian Fault Systems. In particular, the geodetic slip rates obtained through block modeling of GPS velocities were compared with b-values to assess seismicity in the region. Yedisu segment, one of the best-known seismic gaps in Turkey, was specifically analyzed. The relatively low b-values across Yedisu segment verify the accumulation of seismic energy in this segment, and the GPS-derived geodetic slip rates suggest that it has the potential to produce an earthquake of Mw 7.5 across an 80-km rupture zone.Additionally, analysis of earthquake data reveals that the study area has a ductile or rigid–ductile behavior with respect to its surroundings, characterized by varying b-values. Although, seismic events of moderate- to high magnitudes are confined along the major fault zones, there are also low-seismicity zones along the eastern part of the Bitlis Suture Zone and around Yedisu. Since the high seismicity areas within the region may not accumulate sufficient stress for a large earthquake to occur, it is considered that the deformation in such areas occurs in a ductile manner. On the other hand, the areas characterized by low b-values may have the capacity of stress accumulation, which could lead to brittle deformation. 相似文献
16.
ZHANG Heng＇s Seismometer and Longxi earthquake in AD 134 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
17.
ＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄｂｅｆｏｒｅＡ．Ｄ．２００５ＸＩＡＯ－ＱＩＮＧＷＡＮＧ（王晓青），ＺＨＥＮＧ－ＸＩＡＮＧＦＵ（傅征祥）ａｎｄＭＩＮＧＪＩＡＮＧ（蒋铭）... 相似文献
18.
A. A. Nikonov 《Seismic Instruments》2011,47(4):337-345
On the basis of newly collected and processed primary data we consider features of the macroseismic field and define the basic
parameters of a unique earthquake, which happened in the eastern Gulf of Finland, which is very important for studying due
to its epicenter location in the vicinity of St. Petersburg. In this work we present arguments in favor of its tectonic origin,
but not karst-collapse origin and consider the tectonic position of the earthquake’s epicenter. In addition, the significance
of the earthquake for seismic hazard assessment for the sites located in the nearest vicinity to strategically important objects
in the territory of Russia is discussed. 相似文献
19.
The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in an active earthquake zone, i.e., Longmenshan tectonic zone. Seismic waves triggered
by this earthquake can be used to explore the characteristics of the fault rupture process and the hierarchical structure
of the Earth’s interior. We employ spectral element method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology, to
investigate the characteristics of seismic wave propagation excited by Wenchuan earthquake. We calculate synthetic seismograms
with one-point source model and three-point source model respectively. The AK135 model is employed as a prototype of our numerical
global Earth model. The Earth’s ellipticity, Earth’s medium attenuation, and topography data are taken into consideration.
These wave propagation processes are simulated by solving three-dimensional elastic wave governing equations. Three-dimensional
visualization of our numerical results displays the profile of the seismic wave propagation. The three-point source, which
is proposed from the latest investigations through field observation and reverse estimation, can better demonstrate the spatial
and temporal characteristics of the source rupture process than the one-point source. We take comparison of synthetic seismograms
with observational data recorded at 16 observatory stations. Primary results show that the synthetic seismograms calculated
from three-point source agree well with the observations. This can further reveal that the source rupture process of Wenchuan
earthquake is a multi-rupture process, which is composed by at least three or more stages of rupture processes.
Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418406), National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Nos. 40774049 and 40474038), and Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. INF105-SCE-02-12) 相似文献
20.
震级上限是指一个地区可能发生地震的最大震级,其概率意义为发生超过该震级地震的概率几乎为0.在有些地区,由于对其内部的地震构造研究和认识存有局限性,很难根据构造或者地质学的原则来确定震级上限.因此,根据数学模型,采用统计手段,使用地震活动性资料来计算震级上限的估计值是一种可行的方法.本文根据截断的G-R关系模型,采用最大似然计算方法,使用东北地震区的地震目录,计算了东北地震区震级上限,结果表明东北地震区的震级上限应为Mu=7.5左右.计算中我们考虑了不同震级的转换、震级误差的修正以及计算方法的影响.最终结果表明,不论采用何种方案进行计算,东北地震区的震级上限值均始终保持在7.5左右,这说明我们采用本文中方法计算得到的东北地震区的震级上限值是合理可信的,同时也说明在以往的研究中对东北地震区震级上限的估计大都是偏小的. 相似文献