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1.
全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。 相似文献
2.
大气科学的世纪进展与未来展望 总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9
今天的大气科学已从20世纪初经验的阐述转变为既有理论基础又有客观定量化的一门数理学科,其发展步伐在近50年来不断加快。文章回顾了近百年来大气科学在探测、数值天气预报和气候研究3方面所取得的主要成就,并对大气科学在21世纪的潜在发展作一展望。大气探测、计算能力和信息输送方面的技术进步无疑是近代和未来大气科学迅速发展的巨大动力。这些技术进步促使数值模式分辨率在不断提高,越来越多的实测和卫星等遥感资料在通过反演和同化进入模式初始条件和全球气象分析场,模式物理过程和参数化逐步趋向现实,从而使全球和区域数值预报水平持续提高。同时对大量观测资料的统计分析和许多气候子系统耦合模式的若干试验,大大提高了对造成气候变化和影响的物理、动力机制的认识;特别是对全球气温变暖,其中人类活动的影响,以及ENSO的发生、发展和消亡的机制和过程的认识。近期数值天气预报则趋向于模式发展的统一、预报时效的增加和对有足够成员且有代表性的集合预报的日益重视。气候研究将致力于减少各物理和化学过程参数化、分辨率等因素在模式中的不确定性,逐步达到跨月、季节直至年代际气候变化的合理预测。可以预言在不久的将来,地球-空间系统各变量的观测和预报将逐步数字化、自动化,人们可提前3~5 d得知灾害性天气发生时间和地点的概率,人工影响天气等学科在21世纪将会有突破。同时,可以看到世界各国共同协作建立地球-空间综合观测系统,发展能“包罗万象”的地球-空间-减灾的统一模式。然后综合利用大量观测和模式资料,及时掌握地球-空间系统中的各尺度变化规律,以确保人类社会的持续发展。 相似文献
3.
大气水汽变化的反馈作用是影响平衡气候系统敏感性的最大反馈作用之一,能够放大其他温室气体增暖的效应,并可能导致极端天气气候事件的发生趋多趋强。因此,全面分析大气水汽的时空分布特征及其长期变化趋势,评估大气水汽反馈的区域气候效应,对于我们深入认识和理解全球变暖背景下区域气候响应的机理具有重要意义。综合国内外最新研究,已基本能够确定水汽反馈效应为一种使得全球增暖加快近一倍的强烈正反馈,并已能够估计其大致变化范围,但是此估计仍存在较大不确定性。随着卫星和探空技术的发展,目前已有的长期水汽资料日趋丰富,但资料之间也存在一些不确定性问题,同时单个资料本身也存在非均一性问题。最新的气候系统模式已能够大致模拟大气水汽的反馈效应,但近年的进展速度却并不令人乐观。我国的水汽观测和水汽反馈效应的研究也已取得长足进步,可以基本确定为水汽变化与地面温度存在正反馈关系,而与降水的关系虽然也较为密切,但因区域气候变化仍存在较大的不一致性。 相似文献
4.
5.
Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system. 相似文献
6.
Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle. 相似文献
7.
Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Kevin E. Trenberth 《Climatic change》2012,115(2):283-290
The atmospheric and ocean environment has changed from human activities in ways that affect storms and extreme climate events. The main way climate change is perceived is through changes in extremes because those are outside the bounds of previous weather. The average anthropogenic climate change effect is not negligible, but nor is it large, although a small shift in the mean can lead to very large percentage changes in extremes. Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales. To the extent that interactions are linear, even places that feature below normal temperatures are still warmer than they otherwise would be. It is when natural variability and climate change develop in the same direction that records get broken. For instance, the rapid transition from El Ni?o prior to May 2010 to La Ni?a by July 2010 along with global warming contributed to the record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and in close proximity to places where record flooding subsequently occurred. A commentary is provided on recent climate extremes. The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be. 相似文献
8.
Gridded temperature data are necessary to run ecological models at regional scales for climate impact studies and have been generated by spatially interpolating measured values at synoptic stations. Because there are few synoptic stations with long-term records in rural areas in Korea, data from urban stations have been used for this purpose. Due to the overlapping of the rapid urbanization-industrialization period with the global warming era in Korea, climate data from these urbanized areas might be contaminated with urban heat island effect. This study was conducted to differentiate urbanization and regional climate change effects on apparent temperature change. Monthly averages of daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature at 14 synoptic stations were prepared for 1951-1980 (past normal) and 1971-2000 (current normal) periods, respectively.Differences in two temperature normals were regressed to the logarithm of the population increase at 14 corresponding cities from 1966 to 1985. The regression equations were used to determine potential effects of urbanization and to extract the net contribution of regional climate change to the apparent temperature change. According to the model calculation, urbanization effect was common in all months except April. Up to 0.5° warming of nighttime temperature was induced by urbanization in the current normal period compared with the past normal period. There was little effect of regional climate change on local warming in the warm season (May through November). The cool season was warmed mainly by regionally increased daytime temperature. The results could be used to remove urbanization effects embedded in raw data, helping restore unbiased rural temperature trends in South Korea. 相似文献
9.
Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula 总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15
David G. Vaughan Gareth J. Marshall William M. Connolley Claire Parkinson Robert Mulvaney Dominic A. Hodgson John C. King Carol J. Pudsey John Turner 《Climatic change》2003,60(3):243-274
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century. 相似文献
10.
气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
丁一汇 任国玉 石广玉 Gong Peng Zheng Xunhua Zhai Panmao Zhang De'er Zhao Zongci Wang Shaowu Wang Huijun Luo Yong Chen Deliang Gao Xuejie Dai Xiaosu 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):1-5
The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country. 相似文献
11.
Possible mechanisms for the formation of significant weather and climate anomalies in Russia in recent years and their relation to global climate change and natural quasicyclic processes are discussed. Extreme Russian heat wave in 2010, the Amur River flood in 2013, and extreme cold winters are analyzed. All these events were associated with the formation of long-lived blocking anticyclones whose frequency increase can be expected under conditions of global warming. To link such events with the global warming, the effects related to regional and global climatically significant natuial quasicyclic processes should be taken into account. They include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño—Southern Oscillation. 相似文献
12.
Oleg A. Anisimov 《Climatic change》2001,50(3):297-315
The signal of recent global warming has been detected in meteorological records, borehole temperatures and by several indirect climate indicators. Anthropogenic warming continues to evolve, and various methods are used to study and predict the changes of the global and regional climate. Results derived from GCMs, palaeoclimate reconstructions, and regional climate models differ in detail. An empirical model could be used to predict the spatial pattern of the near-surface air temperature and to narrow the range of regional uncertainties. The idea behind this approach is to study the correlations between regional and global temperature using century-scale meteorological records, and to evaluate the regional pattern of the future climate using regression analysis and the global-mean air temperature as a predictor. This empirical model, however, is only applicable to those parts of the world where regional near-surface air temperature reacts linearly to changes of the global thermal regime. This method and data from a set of approximately 2000 weather stations with continuous century-scale records of the monthly air temperature was applied to develop the empirical map of the regional climate sensitivity. Data analysis indicated that an empirical model could be applied to several large regions of the World, where correlations between local and global air temperature are statistically significant. These regions are the western United States, southern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, south-eastern Asia, southern Africa and Australia, where the correlation coefficient is typically above 0.9. The map of regional climate sensitivity has been constructed using calculated coefficients of linear regression between the global-mean and regional annual air temperature. As long as the correlations between the local and global air temperature are close to those in the last several decades, this map provides an effective tool to scale down the projection of the global air temperature to regional level. According to the results of this study, maximum warming at the beginning of the 21st century will take place in the continental parts of North America and Eurasia. The empirical regional climate sensitivity defined here as the response of the mean-annual regional temperature to 1 °C global warming was found to be 5–6 °C in southern Alaska, central Canada, and over the continental Siberia, 3–4 °C on the North Slope of Alaska and western coast of the U.S.A., and 1–2 °C in most of the central and eastern U.S.A. and eastern Canada. Regions with negative sensitivity are located in the southeastern U.S.A., north-western Europe and Scandinavia. The local tendency towards cooling, although statistically confirmed by modern data, could, however, change in the near future. 相似文献
13.
It has been argued that public doubts about climate change have been exacerbated by cold weather events seen as a form of disconfirming evidence for anticipated ‘warming’. Although a link between perceptions of climate and weather is well-established, such assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here we show, using nationally representative data, that directly following a period of severe cold weather in the UK, three times as many people saw these events as pointing towards the reality of climate change, than as disconfirming it. This we argue was a consequence of these cold winters being incorporated into a conceptualisation of extreme or ‘unnatural’ weather resulting from climate change. We also show that the way in which people interpret cold weather is associated with levels of pre-existing scepticism about climate change, which is in turn related to more general worldviews. Drawing attention to ‘extreme’ weather as a consequence of climate change can be a useful communication device, however this is problematic in the case of seasonal cold. 相似文献
14.
与IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）相比,在第六次评估报告（AR6）评估中,观测的极端天气气候事件变化证据,特别是归因于人为影响的证据加强。人类活动造成的气候变化已影响到全球每个区域的许多极端天气气候事件。随着未来全球变暖进一步加剧,预估极端热事件、强降水、农业生态干旱的强度和频次以及强台风（飓风）比例等将增加,越罕见的极端天气气候事件,其发生频率的增长百分比越大。这些结论再次凸显了应对气候变化和极端天气气候事件的必要性和紧迫性。 相似文献
15.
In the western United States, persistent and recurrent flow patterns not only modulate precipitation events but also result in prolonged surface inversion episodes. In this region, the frequency of persistent ridge/trough events ranges between 20 and 40 days, well within the intraseasonal timescale. Based on NCEP reanalysis data starting at 1949, with a focus on the interior West, we observed that episodes of prolonged ridge/trough events appear to occur about a week later every year and resets every 5–7 years—a previously undocumented phenomenon examined herein. Diagnostic analyses indicate that the interplay between regional intraseasonal flow patterns and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alternates the preferred timeframe for the persistent ridge/trough events to occur. This may result from different phases of the NAO shifting the winter mean ridge and such shifts modulate the occurrence and timing of persistent ridge/trough events. When the timing changes evolve around the quasi-6 years cycle of the NAO, the resultant evolution forms what appears to be a steady phase delay in the ridge/trough events year after year. These results are a further step in disclosing the multiple-scale interaction between intraseasonal and interannual modes and its regional climate/weather impact. 相似文献
16.
Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (Twarm), cold (Tcold), wet (Pwet), or dry (Pdry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in Twarm and Pdry events and decreasing trends in Tcold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the Pwet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in Twarm and Tcold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing Twarm and decreasing Tcold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes. 相似文献
17.
The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
How big a threat is global warming to climate-sensitive and economically important sectors such as agriculture in developing countries? How well will farmers be able to adapt to the threats of global warming? This paper attempts to shed light on these two important questions. A cross-sectional analysis is employed to estimate the climate sensitivity of agriculture in Brazil and India. Using panel data from both countries, the study measures how net farm income or property values vary with climate, and consequently, how farmers in India and Brazil react and adapt to climate. The estimated relationships are then used to predict the consequence of alternative climate scenarios. Global warming by the end of the next century could cause annual damages in Brazil between 1% and 39% and between 4% and 26% in India, although some of this effect may be potentially offset by carbon fertilization. These estimates do not factor into account climate-induced extreme weather events. 相似文献
18.
Babatunde J. Abiodun Ayobami T. Salami Olaniran J. Matthew Sola Odedokun 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):277-293
Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031–2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981–2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Nigeria. 相似文献
19.
极端天气气候事件变化对荒漠化、土地退化和粮食安全的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土地是人类赖以生存的重要资源,在受气候变化影响的同时其状况变化也在气候系统中起着关键作用。IPCC最新发布的气候变化与土地特别报告（SRCCL）系统反映了关于荒漠化、土地退化、可持续土地管理、粮食安全和陆地生态系统碳通量方面的最新科学认知,并探讨了如何进行更加可持续性的土地利用和管理以应对与土地相关的气候变化问题。文中从极端事件变化及其影响的角度,结合SRCCL与其他相关文献,予以分析和总结。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化已经并将继续影响荒漠化和土地退化进程并对粮食安全造成冲击;而土地对气候系统的反馈作用,又会加剧气候变化并提高极端事件发生的概率和严重程度。面对气候变化尤其是极端事件给土地带来的巨大压力,必须坚持可持续的土地管理,通过减少包括土地和粮食系统在内的所有行业的排放,才有可能实现到21世纪末将全球平均升温控制在相对工业化前水平2℃以内的目标,以减轻气候变化对土地和粮食系统的负面影响。 相似文献
20.
Detection, Causes and Projection of Climate Change over China： An Overview of Recent Progress 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years.It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average.The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1℃over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8℃over the past 100 years,slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods.Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature.Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable,with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase,and North China a severe drought.Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings,show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases,while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity,volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change.A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration)and the IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences),as well as 40 models developed overseas,indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century,with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China.Under varied emission scenarios,the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1℃by 2020,2.3-3.3℃by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0℃by 2100,in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961 1990.Most models project a 10% 12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100,with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China,but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend.Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation,and further studies are needed.Furthermore,anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia. 相似文献