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1.
１．ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＡｎａｇｒｅｅｍｅｎｔｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅｓｉｍｕｌａｔｅｄａｎｄ“ｏｂｓｅｒｖｅｄ”ａｚｉｍｕｔｈａｌｙ－ａｖｅｒａｇｅｄｍａｓ－ｗｅｉｇｈｔｅｄｒａｄｉａｌｍｏｔｉｏｎｓｈａｓｂｅｎｅｓｔａｂｌｉｓｈｅｄｆｏｒｔｈｅＯ... 相似文献
2.
Utilizing Eliassen’s concepts, the forcing of the isentropic azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial-vertical circulation by diabatic heating and torques within an extratropical cyclone and a typhoon was studied through nu-merical simulations based on the linear diagnostic equation derived previously. The structure of the forcing associated with diabatic heating and torques was determined from quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic analyses of actual case studies. The two cyclones studied were the Ohio extratropical cyclone of 25-27 January 1978 and typhoon Nancy of 18-23 September 1979. The Ohio cyclone, which formed over the Gulf Coast and moved through Ohio and eastern Michigan, was one of the most intense storms with blizzard conditions to ever occur in this region. Typhoon Nancy which occurred over the South China Sea during the FGGE year was selected since relatively high quality assimilated data were available. Within the Ohio cyclone, the dominant internal processes forcing the mean circulation with em-bedded relatively strong hydrodynamic stability were the pressure torque associated with baroclinic (asymmetric) structure and the horizontal eddy angular momentum transport associated with the typical S-shaped thermal and wind structures of self-development. Within typhoon Nancy, the dominant internal process forcing the mean circula-tion with embedded weak hydrodynamic stability was the latent heat release. This analysis shows that the simulated azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions within these two cy?clones agree quite well with the “observed” azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial motions. This isentropic nu?merical study also provides insight into the relatively important internal forcing processes and the trade off between forcing and stability within both extratropical and tropical cyclones. 相似文献
3.
4.
Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction: The generation and assimilation of high-density, satellite-derived data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. F. Le Marshall L. M. Leslie R. F. Abbey Jr. L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):43-57
Summary The impact of recent scientific and technological advances in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure modeling is
discussed. Since the early 1990s, developments have occurred in remote sensing, data assimilation procedures, numerical models
and high performance computing. In particular, there is now quasi-continuous high spatial and temporal resolution data coverage
over the previously data-sparse oceans where tropical cyclones spend most of their life cycles. There has been a rapid development
of data assimilation methodologies capable of using these data to initialize high-resolution prediction models. Model developments
have reached a stage of maturity where the representation of many of the physical processes necessary for improved tropical
cyclone track and intensity prediction are now included. Finally, available computer power has reached the teraflop range.
Most operational centers have high performance computers capable of tropical cyclone modeling at resolutions necessary for
skillful track and intensity simulations.
This article focuses on combining all of the above developments in a tropical cyclone data analysis and prediction system.
The system has produced statistically significant reductions in the mean forecast error statistics for tropical cyclone track
predictions and resulted in far more realistic simulations of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. A large number of
tropical cyclones have been modeled, with emphasis on those classified as being “difficult” storms to predict accurately.
These difficult storms are most responsible for rapidly growing forecast errors. Our results are illustrated by case studies
of such tropical cyclones.
Received October 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
5.
Previous numerical studies have focused on the combined effect of momentum and scalar eddy diffusivity on the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones. The separate impact of eddy diffusivity estimated by planetary boundary layer(PBL) parameterization on the tropical cyclones has not yet been systematically examined. We have examined the impacts of eddy diffusion of moisture on idealized tropical cyclones using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Yonsei University PBL scheme. Our results show nonlinear effects of moisture eddy diffusivity on the simulation of idealized tropical cyclones. Increasing the eddy diffusion of moisture increases the moisture content of the PBL, with three different effects on tropical cyclones:(1) an decrease in the depth of the PBL;(2) an increase in convection in the inner rain band and eyewall; and(3) drying of the lowest region of the PBL and then increasing the surface latent heat flux. These three processes have different effects on the intensity and structure of the tropical cyclone through various physical mechanisms. The increased surface latent heat flux is mainly responsible for the decrease in pressure. Results show that moisture eddy diffusivity has clear effects on the pressure in tropical cyclones, but contributes little to the intensity of wind. This largely influences the wind–pressure relationship, which is crucial in tropical cyclones simulation. These results improve our understanding of moisture eddy diffusivity in the PBL and its influence on tropical cyclones, and provides guidance for interpreting the variation of moisture in the PBL for tropical cyclone simulations. 相似文献
6.
对流层高层存在流出层是台风环流结构的一个典型特征,但是关于台风流出层层结及不稳定特征的分析相对较少。本文利用了非静力中尺度WRF模式输出的0601号Chanchu台风的模式模拟资料,以Ri(理查森数) < 1为判据,分析了存在于Chanchu台风流出层的低理查森数,以及它的分布特征与形成原因。分析表明,在Chanchu台风流出层10~16 km高度附近,低理查森数出现频率较大,甚至达到湍流标准,这与Emmanuel(2011) 推测得出的结论一致。通过对比台风发展过程发生、发展、成熟和消亡阶段流出层低理查森数的状况,发现低理查森数的出现频率与Chanchu台风强度有较好的对应关系,即Chanchu台风强度越强,低理查森数出现的频率越高,范围也越大,同时,Chanchu流出层的低理查森数的存在及分布特征受到水平风的垂直切变和稳定度影响。在Chanchu台风强度缓变过程中,低理查森数的分布还存在日变化,这与太阳辐射日变化导致的辐射加热和冷却造成的稳定度变化有关。分析揭示出存在于Chanchu台风流出层的低理查森数层的结构特征,也验证了低理查森数层对Chanchu台风的强度和辐射日变化具有敏感性。 相似文献
7.
This study examines the impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during May–August of 2004 and 2010 on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Using the WRF model, four numerical experiments were carried out based on different atmospheric conditions and SST forcing. The numerical experiments indicated that changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions greatly affect tropical cyclone activity, and the roles of atmospheric conditions are slightly greater than oceanic conditions. Specifically, the total number of tropical cyclones was found to be mostly affected by atmospheric conditions, while the distribution of tropical cyclone genesis locations was mainly related to oceanic conditions, especially the distribution of SST. In 2010, a warmer SST occurred west of 140°E, with a colder SST east of 140°E. On the one hand, the easterly flow was enhanced through the effect of the increase in the zonal SST gradient.The strengthened easterly flow led to an anomalous boundary layer divergence over the region to the east of 140°E, which suppressed the formation of tropical cyclones over this region. On the other hand, the colder SST over the region to the east of 140°E led to a colder low-level air temperature, which resulted in decreased CAPE and static instability energy. The decrease in thermodynamic energy restricted the generation of tropical cyclones over the same region. 相似文献
8.
台湾岛地形诱生次级环流系统对热带气旋异常运动的影响机制 总被引：19，自引：4，他引：15
对经过中国台湾岛和海南岛、吕宋岛、日本诸岛以及朝鲜半岛的热带气旋在过岛前后的运动、结构和强度的时空变化进行了统计诊断分析。研究结果表明,台湾岛附近热带气旋运动左偏（定义为偏于以前路径的左侧）机率最大,且台湾岛周围是产生诱生低压的高频区。采用理想东、西风环境场作为数值模拟背景场,数值研究了岛屿地形强迫与台湾附近的环境流场的相互作用及其对热带气旋运动偏转的影响,提出了岛屿地形强迫、背景场和热带气旋涡旋三者相互作用对热带气旋路径突然转折影响的观点,即台湾地形有利于环境场中诱生出一对偏差偶极涡,这对诱生偏差偶极涡将导致逼近岛屿的热带气旋产生运动方向的突然偏折,且在不同基本气流条件下,岛屿地形对热带气旋运动可能产生显著不同的影响。 相似文献
9.
Following the theoretical result of Eliassen, the Sawyer-Eliassen equation for frontal circulations and the equation for forcing
the meridional circulation within a circumpolar vortex are extended in isentropic coordinates to des-cribe the forcing of
the azimuthally averaged mass-weighted radial-vertical circulation within translating extratropical and tropical cyclones.
Several physical processes which are not evident in studies employing isobaric coordinates are isolated in this isentropic
study. These processes include the effects of pressure torque, inertial torque and storm translation that are associated with
the asymmetric structure in isentropic coordinates. This isentropic study also includes the effects of eddy angular momentum
transport, diabatic heating and frictional torque that are common in both isentropic and isobaric studies. All of the processes
are modulated by static, inertial and baroclinic stabilities.
Consistent with the theoretical result of Eliassen, the numerical solution from this isentropic study shows that the roles
of torque, diabatic heating and hydrodynamic stability in forcing the radial-vertical circulation within stable vortices are
that 1) positive (negative) torque which results in the counterclockwise (clockwise) rotation of vortices also forces the
outflow (inflow) branch of the radial-vertical circulation, 2) diabatic heating (cooling) forces the ascent (descent) branch
of the radial-vertical circulation and 3) for given forcing, the weaker hydrodynamic stability results in a stronger radial-vertical
circulation. It is the net inflow or convergence (net outflow or divergence), vertical motions and the associated redistribution
of properties that favor the evolution of vortices with colorful weather events.
Numerical solutions of this isentropic study are given in companion articles. The relatively important contribution of various
physical processes to the forcing of the azimuthally-averaged mass-weighted radial-vertical circulation within different translating
cyclones and in their different stages of development will be investigated. 相似文献
10.
ＯｎｔｈｅＦｏｒｃｉｎｇｏｆｔｈｅＲａｄｉａｌ－ｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌＣｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎｗｉｔｈｉｎＣｙｃｌｏｎｅｓ—Ｐａｒｔ１：ＣｏｎｃｅｐｔｓａｎｄＥｑｕａｔｉｏｎｓＤ．Ｒ．ＪｏｈｎｓｏｎａｎｄＺｈｕｏｊｉａｎＹｕａｎＳｐａｃｅＳｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄ... 相似文献
11.
热带气旋碧丽斯(2000)发生的数值模拟:非对称流的发展及转换 总被引：26，自引：9，他引：17
采用NCAR/PSU研制的非静力双向嵌套的仔尺度模式MM5,模拟了热带气旋碧丽斯(2000)从热带弱低压发展为热带风暴及台风的过程.分析表明非对称流在低层发展并通过涡动通量项向对称流转换,使得热带弱低压快速发展达到热带风暴强度.进一步的分析表明:涡动通量项不仅依赖于非对称流的强度,还取决于非对称流型.当非对称流场为气旋式流入或反气旋式流出时,非对称动量向对称动量转换,非对称流减弱,轴对称流加强;反之,当非对称流场为反气旋式流入或气旋式流出时,动量由对称流向非对称流转换. 相似文献
12.
Extra-tropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in Western North America 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Synoptic extra-tropical cyclone and anticyclone trajectories have been constructed from mean daily sea level pressure (SLP) data using a new automated scheme. Frequency, intensity and trajectory characteristics of these transients have been summarized to form indices describing wintertime cyclonic and anticyclonic activity over the North-Eastern Pacific (east of 170°W) during 1950–2001. During this period, the strength of anticyclones gradually diminished and their frequency became more variable, while cyclones intensified in a discrete shift with deeper lows and further southerly trajectories occurring since the mid-1970s. These changes in synoptic transients translate into anomalously low seasonal mean SLP in the Aleutian Low, a low-level circulation anomaly consistent with the positive phase of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the west coast of North America and negative in the central North Pacific Ocean. A link between cyclonic/anticyclonic activity and tropical SST anomalies also exists, but this link only becomes significant after the mid-1970s, a period that coincides with more southerly cyclone trajectories. Southward excursions of mid-latitude cyclones during El Niño/positive NPO winters accomplish the northward advection of tropical air and discourage the southward penetration of polar air masses associated with transient anticyclones. Naturally, these changes in cyclonic/anticyclonic activity directly impact surface air temperatures, especially at night. We document these profound impacts on observed wintertime minimum temperatures over Western North America. 相似文献
13.
介绍跟随热带气旋的动态合成方法,可以避免把简单算术平均的合成方法用于热带气旋分析时,不可避免地会带来信息平滑的问题.该方法采用随热带气旋移动的动态坐标,热带气旋中心即为坐标的的原点,将各个样本相同坐标的格点进行算术平均即可得到动态合成场.该方法可以使热带气旋结构保持相对完整,而且热带气旋周围环流系统的相对位置也基本得到保留;并给出了一个例子说明该方法是适用于热带气旋分析的. 相似文献
14.
登陆热带气旋长久维持与迅速消亡的大尺度环流特征 总被引：61，自引：9，他引：61
采用动态合成分析方法 ,对登陆后长久维持热带气旋 (LTC)和迅速消亡热带气旋 (STC)的大尺度环流特征进行合成分析和动力诊断。研究表明 :(1)LTC登陆后 ,在一个长波槽前有向偏北移动靠近中纬度斜压锋区的趋势 ,而STC登陆后 ,无长波槽靠近 ,并远离中纬度斜压锋区 ;(2 )LTC登陆后 ,仍与一支低空急流水汽输送通道连结 ,而STC登陆后很快与这支水汽通道分离 ;(3)LTC登陆后逐渐变性 ,获取斜压能量 ,其环境风垂直切变增强 ,Δζ2 0 0 -850负值增大 ,而STC登陆后没有这样的特征 ;(4 )LTC登陆后 ,其高层与中纬度急流靠近 ,增强了其向东北方向的高空流出气流 ,而STC不存在这样一支流出气流 ;(5 )LTC登陆后 ,摩擦使其能量耗损 ,但从中高层环境中获得了能量 ,而STC登陆后 ,有同样的能耗却无明显的环境能量补给。因此 ,当一个热带气旋登陆后 ,从其移动趋势、与水汽通道的连结、与斜压锋区的关系和高空流出气流等特征 ,可以初步判断其是长久维持还是迅速衰减。 相似文献
15.
A DYNAMICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE WIND FIELD IN TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE CONSIDERATION OF OROGRAPHIC FACTORS 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the barotropic primitive equation in the polar coordinate system and the appropriate
assumption, we obtained the mathematical equation of orographic forcing on unit mass air parcel. With the
consideration of the frictional stress of the sea and land, supposing that parcel velocity in tropical cyclones
is in linear variation and that the distribution of surface pressure is circular, a set of equations are derived,
which describe the impact of orographic slope error, the central pressure error and position error of tropical
cyclones on the wind field in the tropical cyclone. Typhoon Wipha (2007) is selected to verify the above
interpretation method. The results show that the orographic slope, the frictional coefficient, the intensity
and position of the cyclone are the important factors which have great influence on the interpretation of
wind information about tropical cyclones. The dynamic interpretation method gives very good results,
especially for the coastal area. It is applicable to improving the forecasts of the wind field in tropical
cyclones. 相似文献
16.
季风涡旋对热带气旋生成影响的理想试验研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用新一代非静力平衡中尺度数值模式WRF_ARW（3.3.1版本）模拟季风涡旋中热带气旋生成的过程,从动力和热力作用两方面分析大尺度季风涡旋对热带气旋生成的影响。结果表明:从动力学角度来看,能提供较大环境场涡度的季风涡旋不利于扰动涡旋快速发展成热带气旋。初始阶段,由于季风涡旋尺度大,垂直涡度径向梯度弱。而垂直涡度径向梯度的强弱可以通过“涡度隔离”效应影响对流单体向涡旋中心的聚集合并过程。随着扰动的组织化,径向入流对涡度的平流作用越来越重要。对流单体相对最大风速半径的位置对热带气旋生成作用明显,当其集中在最大风速半径附近时涡旋容易快速发展。此外,环境场相对涡度与热带气旋的尺度存在显著正相关。初始尺度大的涡旋最终具有较大的外围尺度,其涡度的分布范围也更广。从热力学角度来说,较大的环境场相对湿度有利于热带气旋的生成。虽然较大的环境场湿度能够诱发较强的外围对流,但同时也会使最大风速半径以内存在丰富的对流,后者能够提供充分的内区非绝热加热,降低中心气压,促进涡旋发展。 相似文献
17.
全球变暖对台风活动影响的研究进展 总被引：14，自引：1，他引：13
全球变暖是当前热点问题之一,各大洋区时有发生的"超乎寻常"的台风活动也广为关注.全球范围内的台风活动特征是否悄然发生了变化?这种变化与全球变暖是否存在关联?这些问题已成为国际台风界的重点研究内容之一,近年来取得了许多进展.文中从全球台风活动特征变化事实的观测研究,成因分析、数值模拟与预测等方面对此进行了概述.综合各方观点,得到主要共识如下:单个台风的异常活动不宜直接归因于气候变化;全球台风频数的年际变化趋势并不明显;沿海地区人口增长和基础设施增加是近期台风对社会影响加重的主要原因;自1970年以来,一些海区的超强台风比例明显增大,比目前数值模式的模拟结果要大许多;如果全球气候持续变暖,台风的最大风速和降水很可能会继续增加;尽管在台风记录中同时有支持和不支持人类活动(全球变暖的影响)信号存在的证据,但在这一点上还不能给出一致的肯定结论.另外,由于台风和相关气候资料存在均一性方面问题,气候数值模式对台风气候特征描述也存在缺陷,这两类问题的存在使得在目前阶段确切阐明全球变暖和台风活动的关系仍有极大的不确定性. 相似文献
18.
1INTRODUCTIONEversincethe1940抯,thetropicalcyclone(TC)hasbeenviewedasapointvortexorrigidvortex.Thepredictionissummedupasoneforairflowintheambientfield.Themethodusuallysucceeds.Thesteeringtheoryfortheairflowbecomesitstheoreticalfoundation.Thoughwithsomesuccess,theactualtrackofTCmovementcanbemuchdeviatedfromthesteeringcurrent,asseeninroutineforecastpractice.Withoutmuchchangesintheambientsteeringcurrent,theTCcanhaveunexpectedchangesinthedirection,speedofmotionorintensity.Atypicalexamplewo… 相似文献
19.
采用美国联合台风警报中心（JTWC）提供的北印度洋1977-2008年热带气旋资料、NOAA提供的1982-2008年高分辨率合成资料和NCEP提供的1982-2008年全球再分析资料,对北印度洋上167个热带气旋个例进行了统计分析,结果表明：1）北印度洋热带气旋通常发生在阿拉伯海东部和孟加拉湾中部,阿拉伯海上活动的热... 相似文献
20.
采用恒定的现代外部强迫驱动第一版NUIST地球系统模式,进行了40年全球热带气旋活动模拟,分析了热带气旋活动的气候特征,并与1977—2016年观测资料对比分析。结果表明：该模式能够模拟出与热带气旋类似的结构特征,在热带气旋活动活跃的海区,模拟热带气旋生成的空间分布和影响范围与观测基本一致,但是各个海区热带气旋的生成频数与观测还存在差异。除了北印度洋海区,各个海区热带气旋生成频数的季节变化与观测相似。模式在西北太平洋海区模拟结果最好,能模拟出热带气旋的生成范围和盛行路径;在北印度洋地区模拟结果较差,北印度洋海区的相对涡度模拟与观测存在较大差异,这是模式未能模拟出北印度洋热带气旋双峰特征的主要原因。 相似文献