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1.
Blanca Mendoza Virginia García-Acosta Victor Velasco Ernesto Jáuregui Rosa Díaz-Sandoval 《Climatic change》2007,83(1-2):151-168
Using unprecedented catalogues of past severe drought data for the Yucatan Peninsula between 1502 and 1900 coming from historical
written documentation, we identified five conspicuous time lapses with no droughts between 1577–1647, 1662–1724, 1728–1764,
1774–1799 and 1855–1880, as well as time epochs with most frequent droughts between 1800 and 1850. Moreover, the most prominent
periodicity of the historical drought time series was that of ∼40 years. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the Yucatan
Peninsula for the period 1921–1987 we found prominent negative phases between ∼1942–1946 and 1949–1952, 1923–1924, 1928–1929,
1935–1936, 1962–1963, 1971–1972 and 1986–1987. Two prominent periodicities clearly appear at ∼5 and 10 years. Most modern
and historical severe droughts lasted 1 year, and share a quasi-decadal frequency. Also, in the first 66 years of the twentieth
century the frequency of occurrence of severe drought has been lower compared with the nineteenth century. Some of the major
effects and impacts of the most severe droughts in the Yucatan region are examined. We also studied the relation between historical
and modern droughts and several large scale climate phenomena represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our results indicate that historical droughts and the cold phase of the AMO coincide,
while the influence of the SOI is less clear. The strongest coherence between historical droughts and AMO occurred at periodicities
of ∼40 years. For modern droughts the coherence of a drought indicator (the Palmer Drought Severity Index) is similar with
AMO and SOI, although it seems more sustained with the AMO. They are strongest at ∼10 years and very clearly with the AMO
cold phase. Concerning the solar activity proxies and historical droughts, the coherence with a record of beryllium isotope
Be10, which is a good proxy of cosmic rays, is higher than with Total Solar Irradiance. We notice that the strongest coherence
between historical droughts and Be10 occurs at periods ∼60–64 years. When studying modern droughts and solar activity, frequencies of ∼8 years appear, and the
coherences are similar for both sunspots and cosmic rays. Comparing natural terrestrial and solar phenomena, we found that
the most sustained and strongest modulation of historical drought occurrence is at ∼60–64 years and is between the historical
drought series and the solar proxy Be10. For modern droughts we notice that the coherence is similar among AMO, SOI and the solar indices. We can conclude that the
sea surface temperatures (AMO) and solar activity leave their signal in terms of severe droughts in the Maya lands, however
in the long term, the influence of the SOI on this type of phenomenon is less clear. 相似文献
2.
Wavelet Analysis of Solar-ENSO Imprints in Tree Ring Data from Southern Brazil in the Last Century 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to study the imprint of solar and ENSO signals on terrestrial archives, the wavelet spectrum analysis was applied to solar-geophysical indices and tree ring data. Time series of Sunspot Number (SSN), southern oscillation index (SOI) and tree-ring indices from Southern Brazil, for the period 1876–1991, were used in this work. The 11-year solar cycle was present during the whole period in tree ring data, being more intense during 1930–1980, in agreement with an earlier study that was performed for thesame region but a different time range (1836–1996). ENSO effects on treering data from Southern Brazil were studied by the first time in this work using wavelet analysis. Short-term variations, between 2–5 years, arealso present in tree ring data. This represents the signature of ENSO events and was also observed in the SOI, as expected. The cross-wavelet spectrum analysis shows that both solar and climatic factors are recorded in tree ring data. 相似文献
3.
Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
M. Dubrovsky M. D. Svoboda M. Trnka M. J. Hayes D. A. Wilhite Z. Zalud P. Hlavinka 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,96(1-2):155-171
The common versions (referred to as self-calibrated here) of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are calibrated and then applied to the same weather series. Therefore, the distribution of the index values is about the same for any weather series. We introduce here the relative SPI and PDSI, abbreviated as rSPI and rPDSI. These are calibrated using a reference weather series as a first step, which is then applied to the tested series. The reference series may result from either a different station to allow for the inter-station comparison or from a different period to allow for climate-change impact assessments. The PDSI and 1–24 month aggregations of the SPI are used here. In the first part, the relationships between the self-calibrated and relative indices are studied. The relative drought indices are then used to assess drought conditions for 45 Czech stations under present (1961–2000) and future (2060–2099) climates. In the present climate experiment, the drought indices are calibrated by using the reference station weather series. Of all drought indices, the PDSI exhibits the widest spectrum of drought conditions across Czechia, in part because it depends not only on precipitation (as does the SPI) but also on temperature. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future climate is represented by modifying the observed series according to scenarios based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs). Changes in the SPI-based drought risk closely follow the modeled changes in precipitation, which is predicted to decrease in summer and increase in both winter and spring. Changes in the PDSI indicate an increased drought risk at all stations under all climate-change scenarios, which relates to temperature increases predicted by all of the GCMs throughout the whole year. As drought depends on both precipitation and temperature, we conclude that the PDSI is more appropriate (when compared to the SPI) for use in assessing the potential impact of climate change on future droughts. 相似文献
4.
The potential of using land surface models (LSMs) to monitor near-real-time drought has not been fully assessed in China yet. In this study, we analyze the performance of such a system with a land surface model (LSM) named the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE). The meteorological forcing datasets based on reanalysis products and corrected by observational data have been extended to near-real time for semi-operational trial. CABLE-simulated soil moisture (SM) anomalies are used to characterize drought spatial and temporal evolutions. One outstanding feature in our analysis is that with the same meteorological data, we have calculated a range of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We have assessed the similarity among these indices against observed SM over a number of regions in China. While precipitation is the dominant factor in the drought development, relationships between precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture anomalies vary significantly under different climate regimes, resulting in different characteristics of droughts in China. The LSM-based trial system is further evaluated for the 1997/1998 drought in northern China and 2009/2010 drought in southwestern China. The system can capture the severities and temporal and spatial evolutions of these drought events well. The advantage of using a LSM-based drought monitoring system is further demonstrated by its potential to monitor other consequences of drought impacts in a more physically consistent manner. 相似文献
5.
在全球气候变暖的背景下,持续的干旱事件将对生态系统和人类社会产生不利影响。尽管存在多源卫星遥感资料及多种干旱指数,然而区域和全球尺度干旱事件的监测仍具有挑战。采用TRMM（Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission）数据量化降水异常、MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）和陆表温度（Land Surface Temperature,LST）数据表征植被生长异常,构建了一种兼顾降水异常和植被生长状况异常的多传感器陆表干旱严重程度指数（Multi-sensorsDrought Severity Index,MDSI）。结果表明:MDSI 能够准确检测准全球范围（50°S～50°N,0°～180°～0°）的气象干旱事件,如亚马逊流域2005 和2010 年干旱、中国川渝地区2006 年干旱、中国云南2010 年干旱、非洲东部2011 年干旱、2012 年美国中部干旱等;MDSI 与PDSI（Palmer Drought Severity Index）呈现出大致相同的干湿空间格局,并且MDSI 有助于湿润地区干旱程度的检测。 相似文献
6.
Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961–1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).
相似文献7.
8.
Drought assessment for the potential of precipitation enhancement in northern Greece 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
N. R. Dalezios Z. G. Papazafiriou D. M. Papamichail T. S. Karacostas 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1991,44(2):75-88
The paper is part of a series earlier studies in which the precipitation enhancement potential in central and northern Greece is assessed. A drought analysis is performed in this study. In particular, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used for the quantitative estimation of droughts on a monthly basis. Emphasis is placed on drought identification and estimation as well as the severity and areal extent of the phenomenon. The results indicate that there are several drought periods which are common to all stations in central and northern Greece, characterized by significant severity and time duration. There are also a large number of drought periods during the summer months as well as during the winter months.With 7 Figures 相似文献
9.
以2017年春夏季呼伦贝尔草原干旱过程为研究对象,利用呼伦贝尔草原范围内6个气象站的气温、降水数据和MODIS NDVI数据,分析对比2017年4—9月多种气象干旱指数（Pa30、SPI30、SPEI30、CI、MCI）与植被状态指数（VCI）的监测情况。结果表明：只考虑单一降水的气象干旱指数（Pa30、SPI30）在4月波动较大,且此类指数无法反映出高温等其他气象条件对干旱发展的影响。综合气象干旱指数(CI、MCI)由于引入多时间尺度干旱进行计算,旱情缓解时轻旱等级持续的时间过长,且草原植被在降水增加后的恢复速度较快,造成干旱缓解期间植被与监测结果差异较大。MCI与同期和前1期VCI的相关性最好,CI和SPEI30与前1期和前2期VCI的相关性较好,而只考虑单一降水的气象干旱指数与VCI的相关性普遍偏差。植被对SPEI30的响应时间更长,更适宜草原生态干旱的早期预警使用。 相似文献
10.
This paper develops the Atmospheric Crop Moisture Index (ACMI), an indicator of atmospheric drought. Levels in the index represent the possibility of rainfall or the lack of moisture needed at various stages of crop growth. The lack of moisture is determined with the ratio between water supply and demand, where the supply indicator is Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV). The ACMI was calculated from data collected between February 2010 and September 2014. The example of calculation of 10-day values of ACMI10 for rice is provided. The comparison of ACMI and other indices shows poor correlation with the SPI, the SPEI, and the scPDSI; however, it displays high correlation with precipitation, the PE, and the MAI. The ACMI is a parameter affected by surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and solar irradiation; all these parameters are included in the study of drought. The ACMI is an effective tool for agricultural water management. 相似文献
11.
A. H. Delju A. Ceylan E. Piguet M. Rebetez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(1-2):285-296
This paper analyzes climate variability and change in the Urmia Lake Basin, northwest of Iran. Annual average of the following data time series has been analyzed by statistical methods: dry bulb temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and number of rainy and snowy days. We have also used mean monthly temperature and precipitation data for analysis of drought spells for the period 1964–2005 to find out whether fluctuations in the lake level are attributable to natural drought. Our results indicate that mean precipitation has decreased by 9.2 % and the average maximum temperature has increased by 0.8°C over these four decades. The seasonal changes are particularly visible in winter and spring. Results of the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that on average, drought episodes have hit the Urmia Lake Basin every 5 years and most of them reached severe levels, but recent droughts have become more intense and last longer. 相似文献
12.
气象干旱指数是衡量农业干旱程度的指标之一。选取降水距平百分率PA、标准化降水指数SPI、标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI、通过SPI和SPEI构建的综合指数nSPEI（新的标准化降水蒸散指数）四种干旱指数,利用北疆绿洲农业区1961－2020年的气象数据,进行相关性、回归拟合、不同等级干旱频率分布等方面的对比,优选出对旱情描述更符合实际的干旱指数,并进而分析研究区的干旱变化特征。结果表明：（1）PA的干旱标准低估了干旱程度,SPI对温度上升引起的干旱加剧不敏感,SPEI计算蒸散发选用的Thornthwaite方法会高估温度对干旱的影响,nSPEI克服了SPI和SPEI的不足,对研究区的适用性最优。（2）近60年,研究区季尺度气象干旱随时间呈波动性变化特征,进入21世纪以来,春、夏季表现为湿－干变化,秋季表现为弱的干－湿变化,在干旱强度上,春、夏季由弱增强,秋季略减弱,在干旱范围上,以全局性干旱为主,春季局域性干旱增多,夏、秋季局域性干旱减少,在干旱频次上,春季特旱多,夏季重旱多,要注意相伴随的大风灾害和高温灾害,都会进一步加重农业旱情和灾情。 相似文献
13.
H. E. Landsberg 《Climatic change》1986,9(1-2):123-128
There is a general lack of meteorological data in arid and semiarid regions, despite the need for such information for the proper exploitation of these areas. Drought is a natural part of the climate of these regions, just like anywhere else. Drought indices are surveyed and the statistical nature of drought is stressed. The correlation between average temperature and precipitation is explored, as well as the role of wind in creating conditions favorable for the intensification of desert conditions. 相似文献
14.
利用降水量距平百分率(PA)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、自适应帕默尔干旱指数(scPDSI)和气象干旱综合指数(MCI)四种气象干旱指数，进行变化趋势、相关性和干旱频率的分析，并与历史灾情进行对比，来研究1961—2020年新疆不同区域干旱指数适用性。结果表明，scPDSI和MCI指数显著上升，干旱程度呈减轻趋势，其干旱监测结果一致率高。PA指数变化趋势均平稳，但与其他三种干旱指数在全频域和高频域干旱监测结果一致率较好。SPEI指数在东疆和南疆东部区域显著下降，干旱程度呈加重趋势，与其它三种指数低频域干旱监测结果存在显著负相关。干旱频率分析结果显示，PA指数的特旱等级判定存在异常情况，特别是南疆和东疆。与历史灾情对比结果显示，MCI指数是对干旱灾害反映最好的。总体上，MCI指数在新疆地区的适用性要优于其它三种干旱指数。近60年来，全疆不同区域的MCI指数均呈上升趋势，各区域的干旱程度均有所减轻。空间上，新疆西北部发生干旱显著比南疆和东疆区域概率大。全疆不同区域在1962—1967年、1974—1977年、1989—1991年、1997年、2020年均发生干旱，并且主要集中在春夏两季较多，其中北疆西部和伊犁河谷区域易出现干旱灾情。 相似文献
15.
为了正确评估干旱，根据帕默尔旱度模式的思路和1986年安顺清等人修正的帕默尔旱度模式，我们以济南、郑州和太原3站逐年逐月气温和降水等作为基本资料（1961～2000年），以哈尔滨、佳木斯、呼和浩特、沈阳、北京、固原、西安、汉中、青岛、德州、运城、长沙、武汉、南昌、杭州、福州、广州、昆明、南宁、成都和贵阳21个站的有关资料（1961～2000年）为权重因子修正资料，并且在计算可能蒸散时选用了FAO推荐的彭曼-蒙蒂斯公式。另外0～20 cm和20～100 cm土层的土壤田间有效持水量根据我国测定的资料和土壤特性确定，对帕默尔旱度模式进行了进一步修正。利用此模式计算了我国北方地区139个站点（1961年1月～2000年12月）的帕默尔指数值。将计算的帕默尔指数值与一些文献记载的实际旱涝灾情相对照进行验证，表明进一步修正的帕默尔旱度模式能较为准确地评估旱涝情况，适合应用于我国 相似文献
16.
利用中国气象科学院等整理的中国近五百年旱涝等级资料, 应用小波分析、 相关矩分析等方法, 详细分析了太阳黑子变化与京津冀地区旱涝的关系。在统计太阳黑子极值年附近旱涝特征时发现, 在太阳黑子峰值年附近京津冀地区容易出现偏旱的年份, 低谷年附近容易出现偏涝的年份。小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与旱涝指数在9.8年、 78.6年、 132.2年周期处存在对应关系, 说明太阳黑子的变化对京津冀地区的旱涝有一定影响。通过旱涝指数与太阳黑子相对数的相关矩分析, 发现两者相关关系存在阶段性的转折变化, 即由正相关转为负相关, 或者由负相关转为正相关, 相关矩发生转折的时间间隔最长为81年, 最短为23年, 平均为50年。本文还对相关矩阶段性变化的可能原因进行了初步分析。 相似文献
17.
利用MODIS遥感产品计算内蒙古地区2000—2019年植被生长季的干旱严重指数(DSI),并结合气象干旱综合指数(MCI)、植被状态指数(VCI)等干旱指数和典型干旱过程,对DSI在内蒙古地区的适用性进行分析。研究表明,DSI与MCI、VCI的平均相关系数为0.509和0.839,分别通过0.05和0.01的显著性检验,具有较好的一致性。与MCI相比,DSI具有更高的空间分辨率,能反映不同植被类型抗旱能力的差异和区域植被改善后抗旱能力的增强。与VCI相比,DSI受高植被覆盖区归一化植被指数(NDVI)饱和现象的影响更小,并在干旱缓解期的灵敏性更高。DSI在内蒙古地区的适用性较好,可在干旱监测研究与业务中进行尝试和使用。 相似文献
18.
利用MODIS产品数据MOD11A2和MOD13A2获取地表温度(TS)、昼夜温差(DST)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、增强植被指数(EVI),构建宁夏区域2005年4、7、10月逢8、18、28日TS-NDVI、TS-EVI、DST-NDVI、DST-EVI特征空间,根据TS-NDVI、TS-EVI、DST-NDVI、DST-EVI特征空间建立了温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)、温度增强植被指数型干旱指数(TEDI)、温差植被干旱指数(DTVDI)、温差增强植被指数型干旱指数(DTEDI),并以这些干旱指数作为土壤水分监测指标,反演了宁夏区域2005年4、7、10月的土壤水分.利用实测10 cm土壤水分进行相关分析,结果表明DTEDI在宁夏土壤水分反演中表现较好,DTVDI表现略好. 相似文献
19.
Probabilistic analysis of extreme regional meteorological droughts by L-moments in a semi-arid environment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Regional extreme value analyses of drought characteristics provide information on probabilistic nature of drought occurrence, viewed as an essential tool in drought mitigation and planning. In this paper, L-moments are used to investigate the regional characteristics and probabilistic behavior of drought severity levels, represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value). Rainfall data of 3, 6, 12, and 24 month time scales are investigated. A regional watershed in southwestern Iran is used as a case study area. The semi-arid nature of the study area requires appropriate selection of rainfall data. The boxplot approach is used to select those months with adequate data time series for the SPI analysis. Appropriateness of the suggested data time series is discussed in the context of the research by Wu et al. (2007). Based on the results, all of the suggested time scales are found appropriate for SPI investigations. For each time scale of interest regional homogeneity is evaluated and the best regional/sub-regional probability distribution function is selected. Regional quantiles are estimated for different time scales and their variability with respect to return period is discussed. 相似文献
20.
N. U. Ain M. Latif K. Ullah S. Adnan R. Ahmed M. Umar M. Azam 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(1):69-89
As a result of climate change and unsustainable land use management in the recent past, droughts have become one of the most devastating climatic hazards whose impacts may prolong from months to years. This study presents analysis of droughts for two major cropping seasons, i.e., Kharif (May–September) and Rabi (October–April), over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan. The analysis is performed using various datasets viz. observational, reanalysis, and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), for the past (1981–2010) and future (2011–2100) time periods. The following two methods for the identification of dry and wet years, also referred to as drought and wetness, are applied: (1) the percentile rank approach and (2) the drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Future projections of droughts are investigated using RCM (RegCM4.4 and RCA4) outputs from CORDEX South Asia domain under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Generally, the indices show non-significant decreasing trends of drought severity in the recent past for all cases; however, significant increasing trends are observed for annual (0.006) and Kharif (0.007) cases under RCP4.5 scenario. The analysis of large-scale atmospheric dynamics suggests the significant role of low-level geopotential height anomalies over Tibetan Plateau (northwest of Pakistan) during Kharif (Rabi) season in controlling drought occurrence by transporting moisture from the Bay of Bengal (Arabian Sea). Moreover, composites of vertically integrated moisture transport, moisture flux convergence/divergence, and precipitable water anomalies show their marked contribution in maintaining the drought/wetness conditions over the Potwar region. 相似文献