共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
E. Shamir K. P. Georgakakos C. Spencer T. M. Modrick M. J. Murphy Jr. R. Jubach 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):459-482
The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km2) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales. 相似文献
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Guleid Artan Hussein Gadain Jodie L. Smith Kwabena Asante Christina J. Bandaragoda James P. Verdin 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(2):167-185
Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated
with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions.
However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling
because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results
from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the
Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling
when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently
with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated.
G. Artan, J. L. Smith and K. Asante – work performed under USGS contract 03CRCN0001. 相似文献
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综述了淮河流域概况，淮河干流洪水预报系统物采用的预报方法。１９９１年淮河干流洪水预报采用了降雨径流预报与上，下游站相应流量预防方法相配合，并注重实时水情分析；在行洪区多，行洪后水面宽广而比降又极小的河段的汇流计算，采用了以实测洪水资料绘制的经验蓄曲线为充分发挥的湖泊洪水演算方法。 相似文献
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M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
6.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(1-2):203-217
Advances in flood forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty of estimating rainfall continuously over space, for catchment-, national- and continental-scale areas. This has had a concomitant impact on the choice of appropriate model formulations for given flood-forecasting applications. Whilst weather radar used in combination with raingauges – and extended to utilise satellite remote-sensing and numerical weather prediction models – have offered the prospect of progress, there have been significant problems to be overcome. These problems have curtailed the development and adoption of more complete distributed model formulations that aim to increase forecast accuracy. Advanced systems for weather radar display and processing, and for flood forecast construction, are now available to ease the task of implementation. Applications requiring complex networks of models to make forecasts at many locations can be undertaken without new code development and be readily revised to take account of changing requirements. These systems make use of forecast-updating procedures that assimilate data from telemetry networks to improve flood forecast performance, at the same time coping with the possibility of data loss. Flood forecasting systems that integrate rainfall monitoring and forecasting with flood forecasting and warning are now operational in many areas. Present practice in flood modelling and forecast updating is outlined from a UK perspective. Challenges for improvement are identified, particularly against a background of greater access to spatial datasets on terrain, soils, geology, land-cover, and weather variables. Representing the effective runoff production and translation processes operating at a given grid or catchment scale may prove key to improved flood simulation, and robust application to ungauged basins through physics-based linkages with these spatial datasets. The need to embrace uncertainty in flood-warning decision-making is seen as a major challenge for the future. To cite this article: R.J. Moore et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
7.
三峡工程大江截流水文泥沙监测规划 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
鉴于三峡工程大江截流是一项复杂的系统工程,具有水深大,流量大,抛投量大和截流期不断航等显著特点。水文泥沙监测作为其重要的组成部分,监测导流与截流过程中水流泥沙和水下地形的变化,为截流设计优化,调整施工方案与措施等提供科学的决策依据,同时也为导流明渠分流与通航,围堰度汛,截流水力学试验研究及水文预报,水文分析计算等提供水文原型观测资料。本文介绍了水文泥沙监测的目的、任务和水文数据采集,传输,处理与信 相似文献
8.
Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276
The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring
system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks
for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics,
which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the
financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for
measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements.
This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement,
GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system
for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone
developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify
the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty
due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered
by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion
is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction.
A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective
validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This
proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises
to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer. 相似文献
9.
Li Li Yang Hong Jiahu Wang Robert F. Adler Frederick S. Policelli Shahid Habib Daniel Irwn Tesfaye Korme Lawrence Okello 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):109-123
Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall
information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood
prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID
and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project
is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid
organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent
of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate
the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster
management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against
gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for
period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain
gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from
2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according
to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction
results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71).
Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models
for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher
accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood
forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must. 相似文献
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A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Michalis Diakakis 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):803-814
Basin morphometric parameters play an important role in hydrological processes, as they largely control a catchment’s hydrologic
response. Their analysis becomes even more significant when studying runoff reaction to intense rainfall, especially in the
case of ungauged, flash flood prone basins. Unit hydrographs are one of the useful tools for estimating runoff when instrumental
data are inadequate. In this work, instantaneous unit hydrographs based on the time-area method have been compiled along the
drainage networks of two small rural catchments in Greece, situated approximately 25 km northeast of its capital, Athens.
The two catchments drained by ephemeral torrents, namely Rapentosa and Charadros, have been subject to flash flooding during
the last decades, which caused extensive damages at the local small towns of Marathon and Vranas. Hydrograph compilation in
numerous locations along the catchments’ drainage networks directly reflected the runoff conditions across each basin against
a given rainfall. This gave a holistic assessment of their hydrologic response, allowing the detection of areas where peak
flow rates were elevated and therefore, there was higher flood potential. The resulting flood hazard zonation showed good
correlation with locations of damages induced by past flood events, indicating that the method can successfully predict flood
hazard spatial distribution. The whole methodology was based on geographic information software due to its excellent capabilities
on storing and processing spatial data. 相似文献
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随着经济社会的发展,中国步入城镇化快速发展的阶段,城镇化率已由2000年的36.22%增加到2014年的54.77%。在全球气候变化与快速城镇化背景下,中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重。阐述了全球气候变化及城镇化对城市降水和极端暴雨的影响机制,并从流域产汇流角度分析了城镇化对洪水过程的影响,系统剖析了中国城市洪涝频发的主要原因。在成因分析的基础上,进一步提出了中国城市洪涝防治的应对策略,主要包括:①以低影响开发理念为指导,加强城市基础设施建设,建设海绵城市;②建立城市洪涝立体监测、预报预警和实时调度系统,强化城市洪涝科学决策能力;③健全和完善城市洪涝应急预案,强化应急管理能力,完善灾害救助和恢复机制。 相似文献
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This paper deals with the presentation of a flood warning system (GFWS) developed for the specific characteristics of the Guadalhorce basin (3,200 km2, SE of Spain), which is poorly gauged and often affected by flash and plain floods. Its complementarity with the European flood alert system (EFAS) has also been studied. At a lower resolution, EFAS is able to provide a flood forecast several days in advance. The GFWS is adapted to the use of distributed rainfall maps (such as radar rainfall estimates), and discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall–runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model parameters calibrated on a small watershed have been transferred in most of the basin area. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings and fulfills the requirements of ungauged basins. This work reports on the performance of the system on two recent rainfall events that caused several inundations. These results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that despite its limitations, a simple rainfall–runoff model and a relatively simple calibration could be useful for event risk management. Moreover, with low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS. 相似文献
18.
Since tropical rainfall is important in the global energy and hydrologic cycle, the tropical rainfall changes under global warming have attracted extensive attention around the world in recent decades. The advances in the observational studies and model projection for the tropical rainfall changes under global warming were reviewed here. The frontiers in the mechanism of regional tropical rainfall changes and the approaches of rainfall change research are summarized. The large intermodel spread in the multi-model projections, the sources of uncertainty and the methods to reduce the uncertainty were also introduced. Finally, the challenges about the tropical rainfall changes were discussed. 相似文献
19.
山洪影响调查评价与预警体系建设方法研究——以昌江芦溪河段为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以山洪影响调查成果为基础,评价了昌江芦溪河段受洪水影响的程度,建立了水位预警指标体系和水文预报模型。得出的主要结论有:昌江芦溪河段洪水影响机率不到5年一遇,罗村最典型,个别年份重复受灾,属典型的山洪影响威胁区;以既有水文站点为基础,建立了水文站点的水位与上下游村落淹没基础信息的量化关联,形成"1对N"的预警关联体系,标定了集合对象的成灾水位(75.50m),分析结论与实际调查结果吻合;研究了昌江流域产汇流规律,建立了预报模型。本文的评价思路与预警体系构架方法可以作为完善山洪灾害非工程措施、中小河流水文监测系统实际应用的参考,对各地正在开展的山洪灾害调查评价工作具有参考意义。 相似文献
20.
利用热带降雨观测计划(TRMM)卫星雷达降雨数据驱动分布式陆面水文模型,研究流域尺度陆面水文过程,评估该数据在水文模拟与预报等研究领域的性能。通过与实测雨量资料比较,验证TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据的质量。分别将TRMM卫星雷达降雨与观测降雨作为耦合模型的气象输入,模拟和研究淮河流域1998~2003年的陆面水文过程时空变化。结果表明,TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据能够很好地描述降雨的时空分布,利用TRMM降雨模拟的结果与利用观测降雨模拟的结果精度相当;模拟流量与实测资料基本吻合。卫星雷达降雨数据在陆面水文过程研究中具有广泛的应用前景。 相似文献