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1.
T. C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):79-92
Abstract Two entities of importance in hydrological droughts, viz. the longest duration, LT , and the largest magnitude, MT (in standardized terms) over a desired time period (which could also correspond to a specific return period) T, have been analysed for weekly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. Analysis has been carried out in terms of week-by-week standardized values of flow sequences, designated as SHI (standardized hydrological index). The SHI sequence is truncated at the median level for identification and evaluation of expected values of the above random variables, E(LT ) and E(MT ). SHI sequences tended to be strongly autocorrelated and are modelled as autoregressive order-1, order-2 or autoregressive moving average order-1,1. The drought model built on the theorem of extremes of random numbers of random variables was found to be less satisfactory for the prediction of E(LT ) and E(MT ) on a weekly basis. However, the model has worked well on a monthly (weakly Markovian) and an annual (random) basis. An alternative procedure based on a second-order Markov chain model provided satisfactory prediction of E(LT ). Parameters such as the mean, standard deviation (or coefficient of variation), and lag-1 serial correlation of the original weekly flow sequences (obeying a gamma probability distribution function) were used to estimate the simple and first-order drought probabilities through closed-form equations. Second-order probabilities have been estimated based on the original flow sequences as well as SHI sequences, utilizing a counting method. The E(MT ) can be predicted as a product of drought intensity (which obeys the truncated normal distribution) and E(LT ) (which is based on a mixture of first- and second-order Markov chains). Citation Sharma, T. C. & Panu, U. S. (2010) Analytical procedures for weekly hydrological droughts: a case of Canadian rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 79–92. 相似文献
2.
T.C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):549-569
Abstract A hydrological drought magnitude (M T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L T ), as well as the mean drought duration (Lm ), in a characteristic drought length (Lc ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569. 相似文献
3.
T. C. Sharma 《水文研究》1998,12(4):597-611
In many arid and semi-arid environments of the world, years of extended droughts are not uncommon. The occurrence of a drought can be reflected by the deficiency of the rainfall or stream flow sequences below the long-term mean value, which is generally taken as the truncation level for the identification of the droughts. The commonly available statistics for the above processes are mean, coefficient of variation and the lag-one serial correlation coefficient, and at times some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period, which form a basis for designing facilities to meet exigencies arising as a result of droughts. The sequences of drought variable, such as annual rainfall or stream flow, may follow normal, log-normal or gamma distributions, and may evolve in a Markovian fashion and are bound to influence extremal values of the duration and severity. The effect of the aforesaid statistical parameters on the extremal drought durations and severity have been analysed in the present paper. A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the return period ‘T’ in years has been suggested in parallel to the flood frequency formula, commonly cited in the hydrological texts. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
AbstractThe standardized series of monthly and weekly flow sequences, referred to as standardized hydrological index (SHI) series, from five rivers in the Canadian prairies were subjected to return period (Tr) analysis of drought length (L). The SHI series were truncated at drought probability levels q ranging from 0.5 to 0.05 with the intention of deducing drought events and corresponding drought lengths. The values of L were fitted to the Pearson 3, the gamma (2-parameter), the exponential (1-parameter), the Weibull 3 and the Weibull (2-parameter) probability density functions (pdfs). A priori assignment of one week or one month for the location parameter in the Pearson 3 pdf proved logical and also facilitated the rapid estimation of other parameters using either the method of moments or the method of maximum likelihood. The Pearson 3 turns out to be the most suitable pdf to describe and to estimate return periods of drought lengths. At the monthly and weekly time scales, it was inferred that the sample size (T, months or weeks) of SHI series could be treated equivalent to the return period of the largest recorded drought length. At the annual time scale, however, the sample size (T, years) should be modified using either the Hazen or the Gringorten plotting position formula to reflect the actual return period of the largest recorded drought length in years.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor E. Gargouri 相似文献
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ABSTRACT In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows. 相似文献
7.
Drought is a temporary, random and regional climatic phenomenon, originating due to lack of precipitation leading to water deficit and causing economic loss. Success in drought alleviation depends on how well droughts are defined and their severity quantified. A quantitative definition identifies the beginning, end, spatial extent and the severity of drought. Among the available indices, no single index is capable of fully describing all the physical characteristics of drought. Therefore, in most cases it is useful and necessary to consider several indices, examine their sensitivity and accuracy, and investigate for correlation among them. In this study, the geographical information system‐based Spatial and Time Series Information Modeling (SPATSIM) and Daily Water Resources Assessment Modeling (DWRAM) software were used for drought analysis on monthly and daily bases respectively and its spatial distribution in both dry and wet years. SPATSIM utilizes standardized precipitation index (SPI), effective drought index (EDI), deciles index and departure from long‐term mean and median; and DWRAM employs only EDI. The analysis of data from the Kalahandi and Nuapada districts of Orissa (India) revealed that (a) droughts in this region occurred with a frequency of once in every 3 to 4 years, (b) droughts occurred in the year when the ratio of annual rainfall to potential evapotranspiration (Pae/PET) was less than 0·6, (c) EDI better represented the droughts in the area than any other index; (d) all SPI, EDI and annual deviation from the mean showed a similar trend of drought severity. The comparison of all indices and results of analysis led to several useful and pragmatic inferences in understanding the drought attributes of the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Lszl Szarka 《Geophysical Prospecting》1997,45(5):763-774
In this paper the locations where ρapp = ρ1 and ? = π/4 and where these parameters reach an extreme value in two-layer magnetotelluric (MT) sounding curves are summarized in an extremely compact form. The key parameters over two-layer models with conductivities σ1, σ2 and upper layer thickness h are the real S and α, where S is the conductivity contrast and α is the distance between the observation site and the conductivity interface, normalized to the half skindepth in the first layer. If the impedance components, various resistivity definitions ( ρRe Z, ρIm Z and ρ|Z|, based on different parts of the complex impedance Z ) and the magnetotelluric phase ? are derived as a function of S and α, then the conditions for the apparent resistivity ρapp and the phase ? are that they either satisfy ρapp = ρ1 and ? = π/4 or attain extreme values which can be given in terms of simple algebraic equations between S and α. All equations are valid for observation sites at any depth 0 ≤ z ≤ h in the first layer. The set of equations, presented in a tabular form, may make it possible to determine a layer boundary from the short period part of the sounding curves, in particular the ρRe Z and the ?MT curves. 相似文献
9.
T.C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):705-722
Abstract Hydrological drought durations (lengths) in the Canadian prairies were modelled using the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequences derived from the streamflow series at annual, monthly and weekly time scales. The rivers chosen for the study present high levels of persistence (as indicated by values exceeding 0.95 for lag-1 autocorrelation in weekly SHI sequences), because they encompass large catchment areas (2210–119 000 km2) and traverse, or originate in, lakes. For such rivers, Markov chain models were found to be simple and efficient tools for predicting the drought duration (year, month, or week) based on annual, monthly and weekly SHI sequences. The prediction of drought durations was accomplished at threshold levels corresponding to median flow (Q50) (drought probability, q?=?0.5) to Q95 (drought probability, q?=?0.05) exceedence levels in the SHI sequences. The first-order Markov chain or the random model was found to be acceptable for the prediction of annual drought lengths, based on the Hazen plotting position formula for exceedence probability, because of the small sample size of annual streamflows. On monthly and weekly time scales, the second-order Markov chain model was found to be satisfactory using the Weibull plotting position formula for exceedence probability. The crucial element in modelling drought lengths is the reliable estimation of parameters (conditional probabilities) of the first- and second-order persistence, which were estimated using the notions implicit in the discrete autoregressive moving average class of models. The variance of drought durations is of particular significance, because it plays a crucial role in the accurate estimation of persistence parameters. Although, the counting method of the estimation of persistence parameters was found to be unsatisfactory, it proved useful in setting the initial values and also in subsequent adjustment of the variance-based estimates of persistence parameters. At low threshold levels corresponding to q < 0.20, even the first-order Markov chain can be construed as a satisfactory model for predicting drought durations based on monthly and weekly SHI sequences. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2012. Prediction of hydrological drought durations based on Markov chains in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 705–722. 相似文献
10.
The estimation of evapotranspiration (E) in forested areas is required for various practical purposes (e.g. evaluation of drought risks) in Japan. This study developed a model that estimates monthly forest E in Japan with the input of monthly temperature (T). The model is based on the assumptions that E equals the equilibrium evaporation rate (Eeq) and that Eeq is approximated by a function of T. The model formulates E as E (mm month−1) = 3·48 T ( °C) + 32·3. The accuracy of the model was examined using monthly E data derived using short‐term water balance (WB) and micrometeorological (M) methods for 15 forest sites in Japan. The model estimated monthly E more accurately than did the Thornthwaite and Hamon equations according to regression analysis of the estimated E and E derived using the WB and M methods. Although the model tended to overestimate monthly E, the overestimation could be reduced by considering the effect of precipitation on E. As T data are commonly available all over Japan, the model would be a useful tool to estimate forest E in Japan. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
T. C. SHARMA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):803-814
Abstract The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period. These elements form a basis for designing water storage systems to cope with droughts. At times, a third element, drought intensity, is also used and is defined as the ratio of severity to duration. The commonly available statistics for the causative drought variables such as annual rainfall or runoff sequences are the mean, the coefficient of variation and the lag one serial correlation coefficient, and occasionally some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. The extremal values of the duration and severity are modelled in the present paper using information on the aforesaid parameters at the truncation level equal to the mean of the drought sequence, which is generally taken as the truncation level in the analysis of droughts. The drought severity has been modelled as the product of the duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them. An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the drought sequences in the normalized domain. A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the T-year return period has been suggested similar to the flood frequency formulae, commonly cited in hydrological texts. 相似文献
12.
T.C. Sharma 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(5):760-773
Methods based on the recursive probability, the extreme number theorem, and Markov chain (MC) concepts were applied to predict drought lengths (duration) on the standardized (termed as standardized hydrological index, SHI) sequences of monthly and annual river flows from Atlantic Canada. Results of the study indicated that the MC-based method is the most efficient, reliable and versatile method for predicting drought durations followed by the extreme-number-based method. The recursive-probability-based method was found to be computationally intensive and less efficient, although it provided a powerful means for calibrating the empirical plotting position formula needed in the MC-based method. The Weibull plotting position formula turned out to be a suitable measure of the exceedance probability in MC methodology for predicting drought lengths in Atlantic Canada. Based on results, it can be inferred that the MC-based method can be extended to MC2 and higher-order chains for predicting drought lengths on SHI sequences. The predictive capability of the extreme-number-theorem-based method is limited only to independent or weakly first-order persistent SHI sequences.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR Q. Zhang 相似文献
13.
Proposed is a new definition of earthquake response spectra, which takes account of the number of response cycles N. The Nth largest amplitude of absolute acceleration response of a linear oscilator with natural period T and damping ratio h, which is subjected to ground motion at its base, is defined as SA(T, h, N). By defining a reduction factor η(T, h, N) as SA(T, h, N)/SA(T, h, 1), characteristics of η(T, h, N) were investigated based on 394 components of strong motion records obtained in Japan. Two practical empirical formulae to assess the reduction factor η(T, h, N) are proposed. 相似文献
14.
Storage–discharge curves are widely used in several hydrological applications concerning flow and solute transport in small catchments. This article analyzes the relation Q(S) (where Q is the discharge and S is the saturated storage in the hillslope), as a function of some simple structural parameters. The relation Q(S) is evaluated through two‐dimensional numerical simulations and makes use of dimensionless quantities. The method lies in between simple analytical approaches, like those based on the Boussinesq formulation, and more complex distributed models. After the numerical solution of the dimensionless Richards equation, simple analytical relations for Q(S) are determined in dimensionless form, as a function of a few relevant physical parameters. It was found that the storage–discharge curve can be well approximated by a power law function Q/(LKs) = a(S/(L2(? ? θr)))b, where L is the length of the hillslope, Ks the saturated conductivity, ? ? θr the effective porosity, and a, b two coefficients which mainly depend on the slope. The results confirm the validity of the widely used power law assumption for Q(S). Similar relations can be obtained by performing a standard recession curve analysis. Although simplified, the results obtained in the present work may serve as a preliminary tool for assessing the storage–discharge relation in hillslopes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
根据场源不同可将地电场E分为大地电场ET和自然电场ESP。空间Sq电流系和固体潮一般被认为是大地电场ET的起源;自然电场ESP源于地下介质的物理化学作用,其局部性变化相对稳定。2013年南北地震带相继发生了芦山MS7.0地震（30.3°N,103.0°E）和岷县、漳县MS6.6地震（34.5°N,104.2°E）。两次地震周边约400 km范围内的地电场台站（成都、汉王）数据表明震前自然电场ESP出现明显的小幅度突跳或大幅度跃变,同时在时间上具有准同步性,其他地电场台站也有类似变化。基于大地电场岩体裂隙水（电荷）渗流（移动）模型,对两次地震周边自然电场ESP的变异机理进行探讨,尝试解析其物理过程。 相似文献
16.
Variability of phytoplankton biomass in a lowland river: Response to climate conditions 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The results are presented of an intensive study of phytoplankton assemblage carried out in the Berounka River above its confluence with the Vltava River (Czech Republic) in the period 2002–2007. The annual and interannual changes of phytoplankton development (based on high frequency of sampling) and their relation to hydrological conditions and concentrations of main nutrients are analysed. A marked decline of nutrient concentrations was observed during the period 1996–2007. The annual mean values of total P decreased from 0.43 mg L−1 to 0.16 mg L−1, those of N-NO3 from 4.6 mg L−1 to 1.5 mg L−1 and N-NH4 from 1.9 mg L−1 to 0.04 mg L−1. Despite this, the phytoplankton biomass remained at a high level. The seasonal mean values of chlorophyll-a ranged from 51.0 μg L−1 to 116.8 μg L−1 in the same time period. An obviously stronger relationship was found of the phytoplankton biomass and pattern of its development to the variation of flow rates than to the existing level of nutrient concentrations. A significantly decreasing relationship (R2 = 0.384, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to flow rates and a significantly increasing relationship (R2 = 0.359, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to water temperatures were found, based on monthly mean values for the seasonal period 2002–2007. The results obtained indicate a remarkable increase of phytoplankton biomass and its prolongated occurrence in watercourses, which can be expected due to the consequences of the predicted climate change (i.e. higher occurrence of summer droughts and low precipitation amounts accompanied by a substantial drop of flow rates, increase of air and water temperatures), as described in the respective scenarios for the territory of the Czech Republic. Simulations by the regional climate models HIRHAM and RCAO and emission scenario SRES indicated the increase of air temperature by 2.5–5 °C, decrease of precipitation amount by 6–25% and decline of flows by 14–43% in the Berounka River for the scenario period 2071–2100. 相似文献
17.
Summary Solar and lunar geomagnetic tides inH at Alibag have been determined by spectral analysis of discrete Fourier transforms following the method of Black and the well-known Chapman-Miller method. The seasonal variation inL
2(H) is opposite to that inL
2(D) with maximum in thed season and minimum in thej season. In bothH andD the enhancement due to sunspot activity is larger in lunar tide than in solar tide. Surprisingly, the enhancement due to magnetic activity is greater inL
2(H) than inS
1(H), while the contrary is true for declination. It is inferred that there is a local time component of the storm time variation contrary to the view expressed by Green and Malin. The enhancements in amplitudesL
2 andS
1 inH andD, due to sunspot activity and due to magnetic activity, have been separated. The results show that the amplitude at zero sunspot number increases with magnetic activity in all the four parameters, while the enhancement due to sunspot activity at different levels of magnetic activity decreases with increase ofK
p. But if bothK
p andR are increasing, whenK
p increases enhancement due toR decreases and whenR increases enhancement due toK
p decreases. 相似文献
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T. C Sharma 《水文研究》2000,14(7):1279-1288
Drought parameters, namely the longest duration, largest severity and the intensity have been calculated in relation to the truncation levels ranging from 0 to −0\5 in the standardized domain for the normal, gamma and log‐normal probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the drought variables. The drought variables taken in the investigation are the annual rainfall and runoff time‐series evolving randomly and obeying the Markovian dependence. The analysis showed that the assumption of independence of the drought duration and intensity works well in deriving the expression for drought severity at various truncation levels. An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the time‐series of drought variables in the normalized domain. Furthermore the non‐normality and the dependence in the time‐series have a significant effect on the drought parameters at the truncation levels under consideration. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Evapotranspiration partitioning using a simple isotope‐based model in a semiarid marsh wetland in northeastern China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Partitioning evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) in wetlands is important for understanding the hydrological processes in wetlands and the contribution of wetland ET to local and regional water cycling and for designing effective wetland management strategies. Stable water isotopes are useful in the application of ET partitioning through the evaluation of the isotopic compositions of E (δE), T (δT), and ET (δET) obtained from observation or modelling methods. However, this approach still suffers from potentially large uncertainties in terms of estimating the isotopic endmembers. In this study, we modified the traditional isotope‐based ET partitioning methods to include leaf‐level biological constraints to separately estimate the relative contributions of T from Scirpus triqueter and Phragmites australis and the relative contributions of E from the standing surface water in a semiarid marsh wetland in northeastern China. The results showed that although the δT values of S. triqueter and P. australis were rather similar, the mean δT values of the 2 species were different from the values of δE, making it possible to distinguish the relative contributions of E and T through the use of isotopes. The simulation of leaf water using a non‐steady‐state model indicated obvious deviations in leaf water enrichment (δLb) from isotopic steady states for both species, especially during early mornings and evenings when relative humidity was highest. The isotopic mass balance showed that E accounted for approximately 60% of ET, and T from S. triqueter and P. australis each contributed approximately 20% to ET; this implied that the transpiration of one reed was equivalent to that of 5.25 individuals of S. triqueter. Using the estimated ratio of T to ET and the measured leaf transpiration, the total ET was estimated to be approximately 10 mm day?1. Using the NSS‐Tr method, the estimated ET was higher than the water loss calculated from the water level gauge. This indicated that the river water and surrounding groundwater were the sources of the marsh wetland, with a supply rate of 8.3 mm day?1. 相似文献