首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre, which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current. Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Adminis-tration (KMA), the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP, and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our anal...  相似文献   

2.
热带气旋运动的动力学研究进展   总被引：30，自引：7，他引：23  
热带气旋运动是由各种形式的外部强迫、内部过程及其相互作用所决定的。特别是环境气流与气旋环流以及β效应之间的相互作用可以产生次级的非对称气流,使热带气旋偏离大尺度环境气流的引导。这种偏差,被称为广义的β漂移。本文讨论了控制β漂移的物理因子和物理过程,尤其是涡旋结构与环境气流切变对它的影响,以及β漂移在热带气旋路径预报上的应用。另外,还总结了双台风相互作用、热带气旋摆动和与下垫面强迫有关的物理过程的影响。  相似文献   

3.
Monsoon gyres have been identified as one of the important large-scale circulation patterns associated with tropical cyclone （TC） formation in the western North Pacific.A recent observational analysis indicated that most TCs form near the center of monsoon gyres or at the northeast end of the enhanced low-level southwesterly flows on the southeast-east periphery of monsoon gyres.In the present reported study,idealized numerical experiments were conducted to examine the tropical cyclogenesis associated with Rossby wave energy dispersion with an initial idealized monsoon gyre.The numerical simulations showed that the development of the low-level enhanced southwesterly flows on the southeasteast periphery of monsoon gyres can be induced by Rossby wave energy dispersion.Mesoscale convective systems emerged from the northeast end of the enhanced southwesterly flows with mid-level maximum relative vorticity.The simulated TC formed in the northeast of the monsoon gyre and moved westward towards the center of the monsoon gyre.The numerical experiment with a relatively smaller sized initial monsoon gyre showed the TC forming near the center of the initial monsoon gyre.The results of the present study suggest that Rossby wave energy dispersion can play an important role in TC formation in the presence of monsoon gyres.  相似文献   

4.
The singular vector (SV) initial perturbation method can capture the fastest-growing initial perturbation in a tangent linear model (TLM). Based on the global tangent linear and adjoint model of GRAPES-GEPS (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System—Global Ensemble Prediction System), some experiments were carried out to analyze the structure of the moist SVs from the perspectives of the energy norm, energy spectrum, and vertical structure. The conclusions are as follows: The evolution of the SVs is synchronous with that of the atmospheric circulation, which is flow-dependent. The moist and dry SVs are located in unstable regions at mid-to-high latitudes, but the moist SVs are wider, can contain more small- and medium-scale information, and have more energy than the dry SVs. From the energy spectrum analysis, the energy growth caused by the moist SVs is reflected in the relatively small-scale weather system. In addition, moist SVs can generate perturbations associated with large-scale condensation and precipitation, which is not true for dry SVs. For the ensemble forecasts, the average anomaly correlation coefficient of large-scale circulation is better for the forecast based on moist SVs in the Northern Hemisphere, and the low-level variables forecasted by the moist SVs are also improved, especially in the first 72 h. In addition, the moist SVs respond better to short-term precipitation according to statistical precipitation scores based on 10 cases. The inclusion of the large-scale condensation process in the calculation of SVs can improve the short-term weather prediction effectively.  相似文献   

5.
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone(TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions("initials", hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   

7.
一次湖北暴雪天气的诊断与模拟   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
利用NCEP GFS资料分析了2007年1月15—16日鄂东南地区降雪过程,对造成暴雪过程的天气系统发生、发展背景场进行分析。并利用中尺度数值天气模式WRF模拟了这次暴雪过程,探讨了其发生发展的机制。天气系统的背景分析表明,这次暴雪过程主要是受700 hPa西南急流和地面冷空气的共同影响而产生的,降水过程与西南急流的变化密切联系。WRF模式较好地再现了此次暴雪的过程。模拟结果表明西南急流的减弱和移出,对应着降雪的开始和停止;在西南急流的左侧,由于低层涡度的增加,使低空辐合、高空辐散,在连续性原理和动力机制约束下导致上升运动的加强是该次暴雪的形成机制。模式结果说明,产生暴雪的上升运动要远小于产生暴雨的上升运动,且在暴雪过程中,中层为上升运动,近地层和高层伴随着下沉运动。  相似文献   

8.
In this study,the super typhoon KROSA(2007)was simulated using a mesoscale numerical model Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)with a two-moment mixed-phase microphysics scheme.Local rainfall observations,radar and satellite data were also used to analyze the precipitation structure and microphysical features.It was shown that low-level jets and unstable temperature stratification provided this precipitation process with favorable weather condition.Heavy rainfall centers were located in the north and east part of KROSA with the maxima of 6-hourly total rainfall during the simulation more than 100 mm.The quantities of column solid water and column liquid water were generally equivalent,indicating the important role of ice phase in precipitation formation.Results of CloudSat showed that strong convection occurred in the eyewall around the cyclonic center.According to the simulation results,heavy precipitation in the northeast part of the typhoon was mainly triggered by convective clouds,accompanied by the strongest updraft under the melting level.In the southwest part of KROSA,precipitation intensity was rather homogeneous.The ascending center occurred in high-level cold clouds,favoring the formation and growth of ice particles.  相似文献   

9.
非对称台风bogus方案设计和初步试验   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式自1996年6月投入业务运行以来, 一直在背景场中采用经验平滑滤波技术消除浅台风和嵌入轴对称的台风bogus涡旋技术。但事实上, 在采用经验平滑技术消除背景场中弱的位置不准确的浅台风涡旋同时, 也滤除了台风中心周围一些宝贵的非对称气流结构, 同时, 由于实际的台风涡旋结构是非对称的, 因而对采用轴对称涡旋的模式初始场而言, 或多或少的贡献了一些模式预报结果的路径误差。为了调查这部分非对称结构对台风预报路径误差的影响, 从T213L31全球谱模式提供的背景场中抽取浅台风周围的非对称流场, 将之加入到轴对称的台风bogus涡旋中。初步的个例试验发现, 加入非对称流场后, 能有效地减少台风路径预报误差。  相似文献   

10.
The generality of our conceptual model of Outer Mesoscale Convective System (OMCS) formation in western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that was based on a case study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) is examined with a data base of 80 OMCSs during 1999-2009. Formations of 41 “Intersection type (Itype)” OMCSs are similar to our conceptual model in that the key feature is an elongated moisture band in the northerly TC circulation that interacts with the southwest monsoon flow. Two subtypes of these I-type OMCSs are defined based on different formation locations relative to the TC center, and relative to the monsoon flow, that lead to either outward or more cyclonic propagation of the OMCSs. Twenty-five “Upstream type (U-type)” OMCSs form in a similar moisture band, but upstream of the intersection of the outer TC circulation with the monsoon flow. Another 12 “Monsoon type (Mtype)” OMCSs are different from our conceptual model as the formation locations are within the monsoon flow south to the confluence region of TC northerly circulation with the monsoon flow. In all of these OMCSs, the monsoon flow is an important contributor to their climatology and synoptic environment. Expanded conceptual models of where the threat of heavy rainfall associated with the four types of OMCSs may be expected are provided based on different OMCS formation locations relative to the TC center and different propagation vectors in a storm-relative coordinate system.  相似文献   

11.
较系统地概述了中国气象局全球/区域集合预报系统及描述模式初值和模式自身不确定性的集合预报扰动技术发展历程,回顾了GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation Pr Ediction System)全球集合预报的奇异向量初值扰动方法、GRAPES区域集合预报的集合变换卡尔曼滤波初值扰动方法和多尺度混合初值扰动方法、GRAPES全球/区域集合预报模式不确定性的随机物理过程倾向项扰动方法和动能后向散射随机补偿方法等研究成果,介绍了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报业务系统构建参数设置和预报性能,最后分析了GRAPES全球/区域集合预报中存在的问题,展望了未来发展方向。  相似文献   

12.
The effect of uniform zonal winds on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is examined on a beta plane using an idealized mesoscale model.The simulation results show that uniform easterly and westerly flows are both favorable for TC genesis.However,uniform easterly flows result in a faster TC genesis rate compared with uniform westerly flows.It is found that faster TC genesis is associated with greater surface heat fluxes and convection during the early stage.The superposition of uniform easterly flows and the beta effect results in greater surface heat fluxes and convection around the TC center compared with uniform westerly flows.Meanwhile,TC genesis is closely associated with the size and intensity of a mid-level circulation.The joint greater convection induced by the easterly flows and beta effect results in enhancement of the vertical temperature gradient,which is associated with the intensification of mid-level circulation.The strong and compact mid-level circulation is more favorable for efficient conversion of latent heat energy to the kinetic energy of the lower-level cyclonic winds.Thus,uniform easterly flows are more favorable for TC genesis than uniform westerly flows.  相似文献   

13.
Four landfalling typhoon cases in 2005 were selected for a numerical simulation study with the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) model. The preliminary assessment results of the performance of the model, including the predictions of typhoon track, landfall time, location and intensity, etc., are presented and the sources of errors are analyzed. The 24-hour distance forecast error of the typhoon center by the model is shown to be about 131 km, while the 48-hour error is 252 km. The model was relatively more skilful at forecasts of landfall time and locations than those of intensity at landfall. On average, the 24-hour forecasts were slightly better than the 48-hour ones. An analysis of data impacts indicates that the assimilation of unconventional observation data is essential for the improvement of the model simulation. The model could also be improved by increasing model resolution to simulate the mesoscale and fine scale systems and by improving methods of terrain refinement processing.  相似文献   

14.
Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between 1979 and 2008 are documented using the operational ocean analysis, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS), at the National Centers for Climate Prediction (NCEP). The maximum AMOC at 40°N is about 16?Sv in average with peak-to-peak variability of 3–4?Sv. The AMOC variations are dominated by an upward trend from 1980 to 1995, and a downward trend from 1995 to 2008. The maximum AMOC at 26.5°N is slightly weaker than hydrographic estimates and observations from mooring array. The dominant variability of the AMOC in 20°–65°N (the first EOF, 51% variance) is highly correlated with that in the subsurface temperature (the first EOF, 33% variance), and therefore, with density (the first EOF, 25% variance) in the North Atlantic, and is consistent with the observational estimates based on the World Ocean Database 2005. The dominant variabilities of AMOC and subsurface temperature are also analyzed in the context of possible links with the net surface heat flux, deep convection, western boundary current, and subpolar gyre. Variation in the net surface heat flux is further linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index which is found to lead AMOC variations by about 5?years. Our results indicate that AMOC variations can be documented based on an ocean analysis system such as GODAS.  相似文献   

15.
By analyzing the results of a realistic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and conducting a series of idealized OGCM experiments, the dynamics of the Kuroshio Current System is examined. In the realistic configuration, the Kuroshio Current System is successfully simulated when the horizontal resolution of OGCMs is increased from 1/2° to 1/10°. The difference between the two experiments shows a jet, the model’s Kuroshio Extension, and a pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic, “relative,” recirculation gyres (RRGs) on the northern and southern flanks of the jet. We call them recirculation gyres because they share some features with ordinary recirculation gyres in previous studies, and we add the adjective “relative” to emphasize that they may not be apparent in the total field. Similar zonal jet and RRGs are obtained also in the idealized model with a rectangular basin and a flat bottom with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The northern RRG is generated by the injection of high potential vorticity (PV) created in the viscous sublayer of the western boundary current, indicating the importance of a no-slip boundary condition. Since there is no streamline with such high PV in the Sverdrup interior, the eastward current in the northern RRG region has to lose its PV anomaly by viscosity before connecting to the interior. In the setup stage this injection of high PV is carried out by many eddies generated from the instability of the western boundary current. This high PV generates the northern RRG, which induces the separation of the western boundary current and the formation of the zonal jet. In the equilibrium state, the anomalous high PV values created in the viscous sublayer are carried eastward in the northern flank of the zonal jet. The southern RRG is due to the classical Rhines–Young mechanism, where low PV values are advected northward within the western boundary inertial sublayer, and closed, PV-conserving streamlines form to the south of the Kuroshio Extension, allowing slow homogenization of the low PV anomalies. The westward-flowing southern branch of this southern RRG stabilizes the inertial western boundary current and prevents its separation in the northern half of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre, where the western boundary current is unstable without the stabilizing effect of the southern RRG. Therefore, in the equilibrium state, the southern RRG should be located just to the north of the center of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre, which is defined as the latitude of the Sverdrup streamfunction maximum. The zonal jet (the Kuroshio Extension) and the northern RRG gyre are formed to the north of the southern RRG. This is our central result. This hypothesis is confirmed by a series of sensitivity experiments where the location of the center of the Sverdrup subtropical gyre is changed without changing the boundaries of the subtropical gyre. The locations of the zonal jets in the observed Kuroshio Current System and Gulf Stream are consistent as well. Sensitivities of the model Kuroshio Current System are also discussed with regard to the horizontal viscosity, strength of the wind stress, and coastline.  相似文献   

16.
薛霖  李英  许映龙  王蕾  戴高菊 《大气科学》2015,39(4):789-801
台风在趋近大陆过程中强度一般衰减, 但Meranti(1010)北上进入台湾海峡过程中却迅速加强, 且在登陆福建时达到最强。采用中国气象局台风资料、NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料及台湾雷达资料, 结合中尺度数值模式WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)开展台湾地形敏感性试验, 研究Meranti进入台湾海峡过程中的结构变化及迅速加强机理。结果表明:台湾地形是Meranti迅速加强的一个重要影响因子。Meranti北上过程中, 一方面通过台湾岛地形分流作用及其背风坡效应在台湾海峡内诱生中尺度涡旋, 形成正负相间的涡度分布, 激发出与台风相关的扰动波列。地形强迫抬升及扰动波列可加强垂直运动和积云对流, 有利于台风对流发展。另一方面, 台湾地形还通过改变环境气流使台风高空辐散场加强, 环境风垂直切变减小, 形成有利于台风发展的环流背景。比较不同高度台湾地形试验中台风动能收支发现, 台湾地形激发的扰动波列和积云对流增强了次网格尺度系统与台风间能量的交换, 成为Meranti登陆前迅速加强的主要动能源。  相似文献   

17.
The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) is a new-generation operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model developed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).It is a grid-point model with a code structure different from that of spectral models used in other operational NWP centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),especially in the context of p...  相似文献   

18.
利用TOVS资料分析了2000年几个热带气旋的结构,发现与经典概念模型所描述的结构有一定的差异,主要表现在:(1)在水平结构上,非对称结构呈多样性,高度场的低层低值中心(或高层高值中心)与温度场的高值中心并不一定重合;(2)在垂直结构上,高度场的低层低值距平与高层高值距平的配置也呈多样性,特别是存在上、下层距平中心倾斜,或高层只是处于高压区的边缘,不存在明显的高值距平中心与热带气旋相对应.还参照TOVS中的热带气旋结构,进行了修订热带气旋数值预报模式系统中人造台风模型(台风BOGUS)结构的研究,发现修订后的台风BOGUS 能够更好地与环境场协调,并且能对热带气旋的路径预报取得较好的效果.这一方面说明了台风BOGUS的结构对其路径预报有较大的影响,另一方面也说明利用TOVS资料中的热带气旋结构能改善热带气旋路径预报.这也为台风BOGUS的修订和发展提供了依据.  相似文献   

19.
The present study addresses the depiction of regional features in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) real-time products associated with the onset of Indian summer monsoon 2006 along the west coast of India. This study attempts to understand some atmospheric dynamical processes that give rise to the northward shifting of the convergence zones in the sub-daily scale leading to the onset over Mumbai. The comparison of analysis and forecast shows that NCEP GFS appears to follow the analysis till 24 h, but deviates thereafter. The most notable feature in analyses is the distinct meridional asymmetries in the vorticity field with respect to the convection center. It is identified that the equivalent barotropic structure of vorticity north of the convection center is the main forcing for the northward movement of convergence zones. The composite meridional–vertical structure of each term in the vorticity budget reveals the importance of convective term in the upper atmosphere (700–200 hPa) and the stretching term in the lower atmosphere (1,000–700 hPa) with a lesser contribution of the tilting term. From an analysis of a simplified vorticity equation by retaining these dominant terms and by comparing the evolution of the diabatic heating, it is concluded that the inaccuracies in the model’s representation of convection led to the weakening of barotropic westerlies in the forecast.  相似文献   

20.
薛霖  李英 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1107-1116
台风Meranti（1010）北上进入台湾海峡过程中迅速加强,登陆时达到其最大强度。利用中国气象局上海台风研究所最佳路径资料、NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°资料及中尺度数值模式WRF,诊断分析台湾地形诱生的中尺度系统对台风Meranti迅速加强的影响。研究发现,Meranti在进入海峡过程中,台湾地形在台湾海峡内诱生出中尺度涡旋,激发中尺度扰动波列,加强台风环流内的垂直运动。台风水汽、热量的收支诊断表明,强烈的上升运动使热量和水汽向上输送,加强台风内的积云对流和潜热释放,使其强度增强。计算台湾地形诱生中尺度系统与台风间的动能交换发现,中尺度系统通过加强垂直运动向台风中高层输送涡动动能,使中尺度系统动能向台风动能转换,为Meranti的迅速加强提供能源。敏感性试验表明,如果台湾地形不存在,中尺度系统消失,台风的水汽、热量的向上输送和积云对流明显减弱,Meranti则不能达到迅速加强标准。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号