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1.
台风暴雨是我国东南丘陵山地滑坡的主要诱发因素,揭示台风路径与滑坡发生的相关关系对东南丘陵山地台风暴雨型土质滑坡监测预警具有重要的理论及实际意义。本文基于2015—2019年直接过境福建省或间接对福建省造成影响的台风数据以及与这些台风事件发生期间的降雨量数据和台风暴雨滑坡数据,运用ArcGIS软件中的克里金插值法将台风路径、降雨量数据及台风暴雨滑坡数据进行耦合。再运用Logistic回归方法,通过SPSS软件得到泉州市基于台风路径追踪的滑坡发生概率模型。并运用克里金插值法和Logistic回归方法,以台风杜鹃期间的滑坡为实例对所得模型进行验证,其对实际雨量站测得降雨数据引发滑坡与否的判对概率为77%,对实际发生滑坡的判对概率为100%,依据实际降雨量计算数据,其误报率为21%,但实际滑坡发生的误报率为0,符合安全性。预报效果较为满意,因此模型可作为在台风经过泉州市时的台风暴雨型滑坡发生概率的预测。 相似文献
2.
Natural Hazards - Three consecutive typhoons hit Korea within a short period not only in 2012 (typhoons Bolaven, Tembin, and Sanba) but also in 2020 (typhoons Bavi, Maysak, and Haishen). This paper... 相似文献
3.
台风暴雨条件下滑坡稳定性影响因素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以实验数据为依据,通过数值模拟对台风暴雨条件下滑坡体稳定性的主要影响因素进行模拟研究。台风暴雨条件下滑坡体的主要影响因素为特殊降雨雨型：(1) 在相同雨强程度下,台风暴雨的单峰型降雨水文响应速度、稳定性破坏速度及程度均大于普通均匀型降雨,单峰型降雨导致边坡短时间内达到失稳状态,呈“即雨即滑”情况;(2) 强台风多峰型降雨下,经过第一个峰值强降雨后浅层土质边坡已处于不稳定状态,当第二个强峰值降雨来临时,坡体的稳定性较单峰型降低更为迅速。这些为福建省台风暴雨这一特殊降雨类型条件下滑坡的发生机理探索及预警预报提供了新的思路和科学依据。 相似文献
4.
Inagaki Naoto Shibayama Tomoya Esteban Miguel Takabatake Tomoyuki 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):841-858
Natural Hazards - Quantitative assessments on the effect of translate speed of typhoons on wind waves were carried out. A WRF-SWAN coupled model that used observed meteorological data was applied... 相似文献
5.
Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management. 相似文献
6.
For the Xiamen coast where typhoon frequently occurs, beaches are subject to severe erosion during typhoons. To investigate storm-induced beach profile changes at Xiamen coast, four inner XBeach models were applied using typhoon Dan as a case study. These numerical simulations utilized hydrodynamic and wave conditions determined from larger-scale outer and middle coupled Delft3D-FLOW and SWAN models. The models were validated against historic measurements of tidal level, storm tide, storm surge and beach profiles, thus showing the accuracy of outer and middle models to provide boundary conditions and the reliability of inner models to reflect beach profile changes during a typhoon process. The applicability of this modeling approach to Xiamen coast was verified. The results also demonstrated that an enormous amount of dune face erosion occurred at the selected beaches during the typhoon Dan process and the slopes in the vicinity of zero elevation for the chosen four beach profiles all turned out to be gentler after typhoon Dan. Nevertheless, these beaches suffered different impact degrees and processes during the typhoon influence period. Compared to swash and collision regimes, overwash and inundation regimes have the ability to alter beach profile rapidly in short time. Post-storm beach profile with and without vegetation indicated that vegetation is capable of protecting coastal beaches to some extent. By running the nested models, the simulated results can be employed in the management of the beach system and the design of beach nourishment projects at Xiamen coast.
相似文献7.
Numerical simulation of typhoon surges along the coast of Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A numerical model has been designed to study the storm surge induced by typhoon along the coast of Taiwan. The governing equations
have been expressed in spherical coordinate system, and a finite difference method has been used to solve them. In the system
of hydrodynamical equations, the nonlinear advection and lateral eddy viscosity terms are prominent in shallow coastal waters.
Air pressure gradient and wind stresses are the driving forces in the model of typhoon surge. The model has been verified
with storm surges induced by Typhoons Herb in 1996, and by typhoons Kai-Tak and Bilis in 2000. 相似文献
8.
通过对福建省台风暴雨特征的详细分析,结合沿台风“莫拉克”路径对省内新发生滑坡进行的追踪调研,总结出台风暴雨条件下滑坡发生的背景环境,分析了台风暴雨各个特征要素与滑坡之间的关系：滑坡与台风中心登陆区域及登陆后的运行轨迹具有很强的一致性,台风登陆当天降雨对滑坡起决定性作用,当台风登陆当日降雨量达到100 mm或60 mm的3 h极值降雨量时,易触发“即雨即滑”群发式小型浅层土质滑坡。 相似文献
9.
Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth
of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it
accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited
due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique
of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance
of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off
judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article,
the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and
the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology
has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making
as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented. 相似文献
10.
植被在世界各地被广泛用于防止滑坡,但在我国东南沿海的台风季节,植被覆盖较好的地区受台风暴雨诱发常有大量滑坡发生。为了研究台风暴雨条件下植被对滑坡发育的促进作用,通过风洞物理模拟实验研究了风荷载和植被摇曳对滑坡稳定性的影响。结果表明: 台风通过植被对边坡施加的荷载不容忽视,在超强台风条件下(风速≥17 m/s),风荷载可使潜在滑坡体的下滑力增加10%以上; 由于台风的风荷载,植被会通过根部对土壤施加强大的扭矩,导致土壤出现裂缝,这些裂缝为雨水渗透提供了快速通道,土壤的渗透系数会增加10倍以上。因此在东南沿海地区的台风季节,应注意植被、特别是高大乔木对滑坡稳定性的不利影响。 相似文献
11.
近年来,对台风活动特征以及由台风所引发的灾害的认识倍受关注。作者利用地方志、档案等文
献资料,对1883年长江三角洲地区台风灾害事件从台风过程、台风灾害空间分布与灾情等方面进行了重建与分
析,共辨识出3次对该地区有影响的主要台风过程,均发生在8月份,分别为8月3-7日（农历七月初一至初
五）、8月22-24日（农历七月廿十至廿二）、8月29-30日（农历七月廿七至廿八）;重建了该年典型台风灾
害现象---风、雨、潮、啸以及所引发洪涝灾害的空间分布特征,受灾区域主要分布在浙江的杭嘉湖地区、绍
兴和宁波,江苏苏州、扬州、镇江和常州以及上海等地,第２次台风过程的影响最严重。在苏南地区,台风过
程与自春季持续至夏季梅雨期的洪涝相交叠使得灾情更为严重。 相似文献
12.
Chien-Yuan Chen 《Landslides》2016,13(1):153-164
Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring. 相似文献
13.
Natural Hazards - Community participation has grown in prominence in mitigating disasters globally. It involves the active involvement in search and rescue to reconstruction that people affected by... 相似文献
14.
考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义. 相似文献
15.
16.
Kak Choon Loy Prakash Chandra Sinha Juneng Liew Fredolin Tangang Mohd Lokman Husain 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):23-37
Super typhoon Durian struck the central Philippines on November 30, 2006 and southern coast of Vietnam on December 5, 2006. The reported maximum wind exceeded 250 km/h, and the central pressure was 904 hPa during the peak of the system. The typhoon brought colossal damage, both in terms of lives and in terms of properties to the Philippines and Vietnam while Thailand and Malaysia were slightly affected. The energy from the high-velocity wind and central pressure drop resulted in the generation of storm surges along the coastal region of the Philippines including its surrounding islands as well as parts of southern Vietnam. In this paper, a numerical 2D model is used to study the oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing by 2006 super typhoon Durian in the coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam. The initial study of this model aims to provide some useful insights before it could be used as a coastal disaster prediction system in the region of South China Sea (SCS). The atmospheric forcing for the 2D model, which includes the pressure gradient and the wind field, is generated by an empirical asymmetrical storm model. The simulated results of storm surges due to typhoon Durian at two locations lie in the range of observed data/estimates published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). 相似文献
17.
Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tsung-Yi Pan Lung-Yao Chang Jihn-Sung Lai Hsiang-Kuan Chang Cheng-Shang Lee Yih-Chi Tan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(3):1763-1793
Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations. 相似文献
18.
19.
台风暴雨型浅层滑坡失稳机理研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对台风暴雨耦合作用下浅层滑坡的失稳机理进行研究。在总结福建台风暴雨型滑坡灾害特征的基础上,提出风荷载对斜坡变形失稳的影响机理是通过植被造成坡体开裂,从而影响坡体的入渗规律。应用GeoStudio软件计算台风暴雨入渗条件下裂隙坡体中暂态非饱和渗流场的变化,以及对斜坡稳定性的影响。计算结果表明:裂隙坡体由于在裂隙处形成集中入渗点,雨水的入渗速度大于无裂隙的坡体,坡体达到饱和状态所需要的时间大为缩短。裂隙深度、间距对滑坡稳定系数的影响较大,裂隙深度越大、间距越小,在相同的降雨条件下滑坡的稳定系数越小,滑坡失稳需要的降雨时长越短。裂隙宽度对滑坡稳定性的影响相对较小。 相似文献
20.
Shinya Shimokawa Tomokazu Murakami Satoshi Iizuka Jun Yoshino Takashi Yasuda 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2037-2052
We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons. 相似文献