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1.
提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法（RFEM）,推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。 相似文献
2.
Embankment slopes composed of spatially variable soils have a variety of different failure modes that are affected by the correlation distances of the material properties and the geometry and total length of the slope. This paper examines the reliability of soil slopes for embankments of different length and uses parallel computing to analyse very long embankments (up to 100 times the embankment height) for a clay soil characterised by a spatially varying undrained shear strength. Based on a series of analyses using the 3D random finite element method (RFEM), it is first shown that the reliability of slopes of various length can be efficiently computed by combining simple probability theory with a detailed 3D RFEM analysis of a representative shorter slope of length 10 times the slope height. RFEM predictions of reliability indices for longer slopes are then compared with results obtained using Vanmarcke's (1977a) simplified 3D method and Calle's (1985) extended 2D approach. It is shown that these methods can give significantly different results, depending on the horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope length, with RFEM predicting a lower slope reliability than the Vanmarcke and Calle solutions in all cases. The differences in the solutions are evaluated and attributed to differences in the assumed and computed failure surface geometries. 相似文献
3.
Jinsong Huang Gordon Fenton D. V. Griffiths Dianqinq Li Chuangbing Zhou 《Landslides》2017,14(2):491-498
The random finite element method (RFEM) combines the random field theory and finite element method in the framework of Monte Carlo simulation. It has been applied to a wide range of geotechnical problems such as slope stability, bearing capacity and the consolidation of soft soils. When the RFEM was first developed, direct Monte Carlo simulation was used. If the probability of failure (p f ) is small, the direct Monte Carlo simulation requires a large number of simulations. Subset simulation is one of most efficient variance reduction techniques for the simulation of small p f . It has been recently proposed to use subset simulation instead of direct Monte Carlo simulation in RFEM. It is noted, however, that subset simulation requires calculation of the factor of safety (FS), while direct Monte Carlo requires only the examination of failure or non-failure. The search for the FS in RFEM could be a tedious task. For example, the search for the FS of slope stability by the strength reduction method (SRM) usually requires much more computational time than a failure or non-failure checking. In this paper, the subset simulation is combined with RFEM, but the need for the search of FS is eliminated. The value of yield function in an elastoplastic finite element analysis is used to measure the safety margin instead of the FS. Numerical experiments show that the proposed approach gives the same level of accuracy as the traditional subset simulation based on FS, but the computational time is significantly reduced. Although only examples of slope stability are given, the proposed approach will generally work for other types of geotechnical applications. 相似文献
4.
约束随机场下的边坡可靠度随机有限元分析方法 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
目前边坡可靠度中常用的简化分析方法,不考虑边坡土体的空间变异性,每次计算整个边坡都取用相同的强度参数,由离散点试样试验得到的土体参数统计特性只能反映点特性,而边坡的稳定性受滑面上平均抗剪强度特性控制,因此,需要考虑空间范围内的平均特性。描述空间变异性的随机场理论对变异性较高的土体,实际上高估了其空间变异性。把随机场理论和地质统计中的区域化变量理论结合起来,建立约束随机场,并在此基础上进行Monte-Carlo随机有限元分析。计算实例表明,在高变异性条件下约束随机场能有效降低完全随机场的模拟方差,得到更低的破坏概率。对比了随机有限元和简化法的计算结果表明,简化法在土体强度变异性很高时其结果并非偏于保守。另外也指出了可靠度分析中存在的边坡尺度效应和简化法的适用条件。 相似文献
5.
将极限分析的上限定理、有限元离散思想、随机规划理论和蒙特卡洛方法这四者结合起来,提出了一种土质边坡可靠度分析的上限数值方法。首先采用三节点有限单元离散土质边坡,然后将土体的抗剪参数设为随机变量,根据上限定理构建同时满足三角形单元的塑性流动约束条件、单元公共边的塑性流动约束条件和单元速度边界条件的机动许可速度场,并根据内功功率等于外功功率条件建立目标函数,构建土质边坡可靠度分析的上限法随机规划模型。采用蒙特卡洛方法求解上限法随机规划模型,同时提出了一种基于上限法速度场的边坡失效风险系数估算方法,该方法特别适用于具有多种失效模式的边坡风险分析。对2个经典算例进行了深入分析,验证了方法的正确性。 相似文献
6.
Enhancement of random finite element method in reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes using Subset Simulation 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Random finite element method (RFEM) provides a rigorous tool to incorporate spatial variability of soil properties into reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. However, it suffers from a common criticism of requiring extensive computational efforts and a lack of efficiency, particularly at small probability levels (e.g., slope failure probability P f ?<?0.001). To address this problem, this study integrates RFEM with an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method called “Subset Simulation (SS)” to develop an efficient RFEM (i.e., SS-based RFEM) for reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes. The proposed SS-based RFEM expresses the overall risk of slope failure as a weighed aggregation of slope failure risk at different probability levels and quantifies the relative contributions of slope failure risk at different probability levels to the overall risk of slope failure. Equations are derived for integrating SS with RFEM to evaluate the probability (P f ) and risk (R) of slope failure. These equations are illustrated using a soil slope example. It is shown that the P f and R are evaluated properly using the proposed approach. Compared with the original RFEM with direct MCS, the SS-based RFEM improves, significantly, the computational efficiency of evaluating P f and R. This enhances the applications of RFEM in the reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. With the aid of improved computational efficiency, a sensitivity study is also performed to explore effects of vertical spatial variability of soil properties on R. It is found that the vertical spatial variability affects the slope failure risk significantly. 相似文献
7.
The influence of vertical spatial variability of sands on the excavation-induced lateral wall deflection and bending moment of excavations supported by cantilever retaining walls is investigated in this paper. Herein, the random finite element method (RFEM) is adopted to explicitly study the effect of one-dimensional spatial variability of internal friction angle of sands on the predicted wall and ground responses. The RFEM analysis consists of three components: (1) finite element method for analyzing lateral wall deflection and bending moment, (2) random field theory implemented with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and (3) statistical interpretation of MCS results through confidence intervals. This study reveals the importance of random field modeling in coping with the spatial variability of sands in the problem of supported excavations: (1) neglecting spatial variability of soil property will cause an overestimation of the variation in the predicted wall deflection and bending moment; (2) the estimated probability of failure based on a well-established serviceability limit state may be overestimated or underestimated depending on the chosen limiting lateral wall deflection. This study further investigates the effect of the number of MCS on the confidence intervals of the predicted statistics of the maximum lateral wall deflection and the maximum bending moment. The results also demonstrate that the confidence interval analysis of the predicted statistics of the maximum lateral wall deflection and the maximum bending moment provides a rational tool for interpreting the statistical data from RFEM. 相似文献
8.
提出基于非侵入式随机有限元法的边坡可靠度分析方法,并编写计算程序NISFEM。采用有限元滑面应力法计算边坡安全系数,将Hermite随机多项式展开与SIGMA/W和SLOPE/W模块有机结合实现边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析。根据随机多项式展开系数,给出边坡安全系数前4阶统计矩（均值、标准差、偏度和峰度）和Sobol指标解析表达式,并采用Sobol指标进行边坡可靠度参数敏感性分析。最后,以均质土坡可靠度问题为例,证明该方法在边坡可靠度分析中的有效性。结果表明,边坡可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法能够有效地考虑边坡变形对边坡可靠度的影响,计算效率远远高于蒙特卡罗模拟方法（MCS）,是解决复杂边坡可靠度问题一种有效地分析手段;黏聚力和内摩擦角变异性对边坡安全系数前四阶统计矩具有明显的影响,重度变异性对安全系数前4阶统计矩几乎没有影响;抗剪强度参数间负相关性对边坡安全系数均值几乎没有影响,但对安全系数标准差、偏度和峰度均有明显的影响。此外,随着抗剪强度参数间负相关性的增加,边坡安全系数由近似正态分布逐渐变为明显的非正态分布。 相似文献
9.
For analyzing low probability slope failures, a modified version of subset simulation, based on performance-based subset selection rather than the usual probability-based subset selection, is combined with the random finite element method. The application to an idealized slope is used to study the efficiency and consistency of the proposed method compared to classical Monte Carlo simulations and the shear strength reduction (SSR) method. Results demonstrate that failure events taking place without strength reduction have different modes of failure than stable slopes brought to failure by SSR. The correlation between sliding volume and factor of safety is also demonstrated. 相似文献
10.
Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered. 相似文献
11.
The stability problem of natural slopes, filled slopes, and cut slopes are commonly encountered in Civil Engineering Projects. Predicting the slope stability is an everyday task for geotechnical engineers. In this paper, a study has been done to predict the factor of safety (FOS) of the slopes using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN). A total of 200 cases with different geometric and shear strength parameters were analyzed by using the well-known slope stability methods like Fellenius method, Bishop’s method, Janbu method, and Morgenstern and Price method. The FOS values obtained by these slope stability methods were used to develop the prediction models using MLR and ANN. Further, a few case studies have been done along the Jorabat-Shillong Expressway (NH-40) in India, using the finite element method (FEM). The output values of FEM were compared with the developed prediction models to find the best prediction model and the results were discussed. 相似文献
12.
Ning Luo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):87-108
Probabilistic stability analyses of constructed wrapped-face reinforced slopes (or embankments) using frictional soils were carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Soil properties reported in the literature for unsaturated frictional fills compacted to different densities were used in the simulations. Bar elements were added to the RFEM code to simulate extensible geosynthetic reinforcement layers and the Davis approach was used to improve numerical stability for purely frictional soil slopes at collapse. The influence of isotropic and anisotropic spatially variable soil strength was investigated and shown to have a large influence on the variation of maximum mobilised tensile forces in reinforcement layers for the steep 5 m-high slopes in the study. The influence of fill placed at different layer thickness and compacted to different levels was simulated by adjusting the soil strength and unit weight, and the vertical strength correlation length in the anisotropic spatially variable strength field used in each slope realisation. Numerical results showed that vertical strength correlation lengths approaching the magnitude of fill lift heights can control the probability of failure for reinforced slopes constructed with weak fills placed in lift heights close to but less than the wrapped reinforcement spacing used in the study. 相似文献
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14.
Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for integrating a commercial finite difference method into a probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented. Given that the limit state function cannot be expressed in an explicit form, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface is adopted to approximate the limit state function, thereby reducing the number of stability analysis calculations. A trained ANN model is used to calculate the probability of failure through the first- and second-order reliability methods and a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Probabilistic stability assessments for a hypothetical two-layer slope as well as for the Cannon Dam in Missouri, USA are performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method. 相似文献
15.
Sina Javankhoshdel Ning Luo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(3):231-246
The 2D random finite element method and the one-dimensional and 2D random limit equilibrium method are used to investigate the influence of spatial variability of soil strength parameters on the probability of failure of simple soil slopes with cohesive undrained shear strength. The combined influence of spatial variability of soil properties and cross-correlation between undrained soil strength and unit weight on the computed probability of failure is explored. The paper identifies conditions where numerical outcomes are similar and where they are not. The limitations of each analysis method are described and implications to analysis and design are identified.Abbreviations: FEM: finite element method; LEM: limit equilibrium method; RFEM: random finite element method; RLEM: random limit equilibrium method 相似文献
16.
The influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the performance of a long slope cut in clay is investigated. Random field theory is used to model the heterogeneity and finite elements are used to compute the slope response. These have been used within a Monte Carlo simulation to compute reliability as a function of global factor of safety. It is shown that three failure modes are possible, depending on the ratio of the horizontal scale of fluctuation to the slope size, as characterised by its height and length. For very small values of this ratio, the slope fails along its entire length and the result is similar to a conventional 2D analysis based on the mean strength. For intermediate values, discrete failures are likely and reliability is a function of slope length. For large values of the ratio, the variability takes on a layered appearance and the result is equivalent to a 2D stochastic analysis. The validity of the boundary conditions is examined by analysing slopes of different length. It is shown that simple probability theory may be linked with stochastic analysis and finite elements to give efficient solutions for some large 3D problems. 相似文献
17.
相较于极限平衡法,强度折减法在计算边坡稳定性系数上有许多优势,但更大的计算量在一定程度上限制了其在边坡可靠度分析中的应用。为了有效地减少可靠度分析中数值模型的计算次数,以减轻使用强度折减法所带来的计算压力,引入了基于主动学习径向基函数（ARBF）代理模型的高效分析方法：利用主动学习函数在极限状态面附近搜索训练样本更新代理模型,加快模型训练的收敛速度;采用线性核径向基插值函数简化模型参数优化过程,建立简洁、稳定的代理模型。此外,为了充分发挥主动学习代理模型的优势,提出针对土质边坡特性的初始采样策略。当得到稳定的代理模型后,结合蒙特卡罗模拟计算边坡的系统失稳概率。作为对比,基于两个典型边坡算例,测试了两种经典的可靠度方法：主动学习克里金模型（AK）和二次响应面法（QRSM）,论证了引入的主动学习径向基函数代理模型在计算效率上的高效性和计算模型上的稳定性。 相似文献
18.
提出了基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析的实用算法。选择U空间中的随机变量,通过空间变换和相关矩阵分解,计算试验点的功能函数;通过迭代算法构造响应面、以确保通过最小的计算量获得最优精度,并在此基础上进行FORM/SORM计算。以一岩石边坡的平面滑动问题为例,通过与蒙特卡洛模拟、FORM及随机响应面法的比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。分析了参数的相关性及试验点取值范围对计算结果的影响,讨论了可靠度分析结果中参数敏感性和物理属性问题。该方法可为实际边坡问题的可靠度分析提供参考,并可以用来进行基于可靠度分析的加固设计。 相似文献
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边坡稳定性一直是边坡安全的重点研究对象,针对边坡评价中常见的不确定性因素,可靠度分析是值得利用的方法。为评价某节理发育的岩质岸坡稳定性,通过有限元计算软件,结合现场勘探测绘数据,建立以边坡节理强度参数c、φ为输入变量,安全系数为输出变量的点估计（PEM）计算概率模型,计算结果表明:节理发育对该边坡变形具有明显控制作用;边坡整体可靠性较好,破坏概率极低。最后,通过蒙托卡罗法对可靠度结果进行验证,结果表明两种方法的计算结果不存在显著性差异。研究结果表明节理对岩质边坡稳定具有良好的敏感性,基于节理不确定性的点估计法分析边坡可靠度是一种有效的方法。 相似文献