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1.
Ning Luo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):87-108
Probabilistic stability analyses of constructed wrapped-face reinforced slopes (or embankments) using frictional soils were carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Soil properties reported in the literature for unsaturated frictional fills compacted to different densities were used in the simulations. Bar elements were added to the RFEM code to simulate extensible geosynthetic reinforcement layers and the Davis approach was used to improve numerical stability for purely frictional soil slopes at collapse. The influence of isotropic and anisotropic spatially variable soil strength was investigated and shown to have a large influence on the variation of maximum mobilised tensile forces in reinforcement layers for the steep 5 m-high slopes in the study. The influence of fill placed at different layer thickness and compacted to different levels was simulated by adjusting the soil strength and unit weight, and the vertical strength correlation length in the anisotropic spatially variable strength field used in each slope realisation. Numerical results showed that vertical strength correlation lengths approaching the magnitude of fill lift heights can control the probability of failure for reinforced slopes constructed with weak fills placed in lift heights close to but less than the wrapped reinforcement spacing used in the study. 相似文献
2.
Enhancement of random finite element method in reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes using Subset Simulation 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Random finite element method (RFEM) provides a rigorous tool to incorporate spatial variability of soil properties into reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. However, it suffers from a common criticism of requiring extensive computational efforts and a lack of efficiency, particularly at small probability levels (e.g., slope failure probability P f ?<?0.001). To address this problem, this study integrates RFEM with an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method called “Subset Simulation (SS)” to develop an efficient RFEM (i.e., SS-based RFEM) for reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes. The proposed SS-based RFEM expresses the overall risk of slope failure as a weighed aggregation of slope failure risk at different probability levels and quantifies the relative contributions of slope failure risk at different probability levels to the overall risk of slope failure. Equations are derived for integrating SS with RFEM to evaluate the probability (P f ) and risk (R) of slope failure. These equations are illustrated using a soil slope example. It is shown that the P f and R are evaluated properly using the proposed approach. Compared with the original RFEM with direct MCS, the SS-based RFEM improves, significantly, the computational efficiency of evaluating P f and R. This enhances the applications of RFEM in the reliability analysis and risk assessment of slope stability. With the aid of improved computational efficiency, a sensitivity study is also performed to explore effects of vertical spatial variability of soil properties on R. It is found that the vertical spatial variability affects the slope failure risk significantly. 相似文献
3.
Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered. 相似文献
4.
提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法（RFEM）,推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。 相似文献
5.
约束随机场下的边坡可靠度随机有限元分析方法 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
目前边坡可靠度中常用的简化分析方法,不考虑边坡土体的空间变异性,每次计算整个边坡都取用相同的强度参数,由离散点试样试验得到的土体参数统计特性只能反映点特性,而边坡的稳定性受滑面上平均抗剪强度特性控制,因此,需要考虑空间范围内的平均特性。描述空间变异性的随机场理论对变异性较高的土体,实际上高估了其空间变异性。把随机场理论和地质统计中的区域化变量理论结合起来,建立约束随机场,并在此基础上进行Monte-Carlo随机有限元分析。计算实例表明,在高变异性条件下约束随机场能有效降低完全随机场的模拟方差,得到更低的破坏概率。对比了随机有限元和简化法的计算结果表明,简化法在土体强度变异性很高时其结果并非偏于保守。另外也指出了可靠度分析中存在的边坡尺度效应和简化法的适用条件。 相似文献
6.
The influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the performance of a long slope cut in clay is investigated. Random field theory is used to model the heterogeneity and finite elements are used to compute the slope response. These have been used within a Monte Carlo simulation to compute reliability as a function of global factor of safety. It is shown that three failure modes are possible, depending on the ratio of the horizontal scale of fluctuation to the slope size, as characterised by its height and length. For very small values of this ratio, the slope fails along its entire length and the result is similar to a conventional 2D analysis based on the mean strength. For intermediate values, discrete failures are likely and reliability is a function of slope length. For large values of the ratio, the variability takes on a layered appearance and the result is equivalent to a 2D stochastic analysis. The validity of the boundary conditions is examined by analysing slopes of different length. It is shown that simple probability theory may be linked with stochastic analysis and finite elements to give efficient solutions for some large 3D problems. 相似文献
7.
The reliability of heterogeneous slopes can be evaluated using a wide range of available probabilistic methods. One of these methods is the random finite element method (RFEM), which combines random field theory with the non‐linear elasto‐plastic finite element slope stability analysis method. The RFEM computes the probability of failure of a slope using the Monte Carlo simulation process. The major drawback of this approach is the intensive computational time required, mainly due to the finite element analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation process. Therefore, a simplified model or solution, which can bypass the computationally intensive and time‐consuming numerical analyses, is desirable. The present study investigates the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to develop such a simplified model. ANNs are well known for their strong capability in mapping the input and output relationship of complex non‐linear systems. The RFEM is used to generate possible solutions and to establish a large database that is used to develop and verify the ANN model. In this paper, multi‐layer perceptrons, which are trained with the back‐propagation algorithm, are used. The results of various performance measures indicate that the developed ANN model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the reliability of heterogeneous slopes. The developed ANN model is then transformed into relatively simple formulae for direct application in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
The permeability function for a soil may change spatially due to uncertainties in soil fabric. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how the spatial variability of permeability function propagates to the variability of the pore-water pressures and groundwater table in a slope as well as the stability of the slope. A random field analysis method is explored by assigning discrete random values to a 2D space and controlling the density of random field grid to improve the calculation accuracy. Sequences of random numbers are generated using fast Fourier transform. In a given heterogeneous slope subject to steady-state rainfall infiltration, a parametric study shows that the matric suctions are 0.5–1.25 times those in a homogeneous slope when the correlation length of log-permeability varies from 0.4 to 50 times the slope height. The groundwater table is no longer unique with a spatially variable permeability function. There exists a critical correlation length approximately five times the slope height at which the change in the groundwater table is maximal and the mean factor of safety is minimal. The mean factor of safety of the heterogeneous slopes is smaller than that of a homogenous slope with mean input parameters. The spatial variability of soil influences the range of the calculated factor of safety significantly but does not influence the mean factor of safety substantially. 相似文献
9.
This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs. 相似文献
10.
This paper investigates the influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the reliability of, and risk posed by, a long slope cut in clay, for different depths of foundation layer. The clay has been idealised as a linear elastic, perfectly plastic Von Mises material and its spatial variability has been modelled using random field theory, whereas slope performance has been computed using a parallel 3D finite element program. The results of Monte Carlo simulations confirm previous findings that three categories of failure mode are possible and that these are significantly influenced by the horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope geometry. In particular, discrete 3D failures are likely for intermediate scales of fluctuation and, in this case, reliability is a function of slope length. The risk posed by potential slides has been quantified in terms of slide volumes and slide lengths, which have been estimated by considering the computed out-of-face displacements. The results show that, for a given horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope geometry, there is a wide range of possible slide volumes and slide geometries. Indeed, the results highlight just how difficult it is to compute a 2D slope failure in a heterogeneous soil. However, they also indicate that, for low probabilities of failure, the volumes of potential slides can be small. This suggests that, for some problems, it may not be necessary to design to very small probabilities of failure, due to the reduced consequence of failure in this case. The techniques developed in this paper will be important in benchmarking simpler 2D and 3D solutions used in design, as there is a need to quantify slide geometries when benchmarking simpler methods based on predefined failure mechanisms. 相似文献
11.
Three-dimensional reliability analysis of earth slopes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Reliability of cohesive soil slopes is assessed using a three-dimensional (3D) probabilistic stability analysis algorithm. Spatial variability of soil properties is represented by an anisotropic random field. Parametric studies are performed for a typical earth structure. The influence of the model parameters, including expected value, variance and correlation distance of soil shear strength, on the reliability associated to particular failure mechanisms is evaluated. The effect on reliability of the dimensions and shape of potential slip surfaces for a given random field is also assessed. It is shown that the mechanisms that contribute most significantly to global probability of failure of the slope may be quite different from those identified as critical by standard deterministic evaluations assuming soil homogeneity. Some practical implications of this fact are discussed. 相似文献
12.
Sina Javankhoshdel Ning Luo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(3):231-246
The 2D random finite element method and the one-dimensional and 2D random limit equilibrium method are used to investigate the influence of spatial variability of soil strength parameters on the probability of failure of simple soil slopes with cohesive undrained shear strength. The combined influence of spatial variability of soil properties and cross-correlation between undrained soil strength and unit weight on the computed probability of failure is explored. The paper identifies conditions where numerical outcomes are similar and where they are not. The limitations of each analysis method are described and implications to analysis and design are identified.Abbreviations: FEM: finite element method; LEM: limit equilibrium method; RFEM: random finite element method; RLEM: random limit equilibrium method 相似文献
13.
Three-dimensional slope reliability and risk assessment using auxiliary random finite element method
This paper aims to propose an auxiliary random finite element method (ARFEM) for efficient three-dimensional (3-D) slope reliability analysis and risk assessment considering spatial variability of soil properties. The ARFEM mainly consists of two steps: (1) preliminary analysis using a relatively coarse finite-element model and Subset Simulation, and (2) target analysis using a detailed finite-element model and response conditioning method. The 3-D spatial variability of soil properties is explicitly modeled using the expansion optimal linear estimation approach. A 3-D soil slope example is presented to demonstrate the validity of ARFEM. Finally, a sensitivity study is carried out to explore the effect of horizontal spatial variability. The results indicate that the proposed ARFEM not only provides reasonably accurate estimates of slope failure probability and risk, but also significantly reduces the computational effort at small probability levels. 3-D slope probabilistic analysis (including both 3-D slope stability analysis and 3-D spatial variability modeling) can reflect slope failure mechanism more realistically in terms of the shape, location and length of slip surface. Horizontal spatial variability can significantly influence the failure mode, reliability and risk of 3-D slopes, especially for long slopes with relatively strong horizontal spatial variability. These effects can be properly incorporated into 3-D slope reliability analysis and risk assessment using ARFEM. 相似文献
14.
二维与三维边坡稳定性分析得到的安全系数存在着差异,讨论这种差异与滑体几何尺寸及土体强度参数间的变化规律及其形成机制,可为合理地评价边坡稳定性分析提供理论依据。针对均质三维边坡,利用基于滑面正应力修正模式的极限平衡法分析程序,定性地讨论滑体形态、长高比、坡比、土体强度参数等指标对二维与三维安全系数计算结果差异(以F3/F2表示)的影响,总结F3/F2与影响指标间的变化规律,分析变化规律形成的内在机制。从工程应用的角度,给出需要考虑该差异影响的分界标准。研究表明,F3/F2随着长高比L/H、内摩擦角?及坡比m的增大逐渐减小,随着黏聚力c的增大逐渐增大;对于满足下列条件之一的边坡,宜采用三维安全系数来评价其稳定性,(1) L/H ≤ 5的滑坡体;(2) 5< L/H ≤ 10且 c > 25 kPa(或? < 15°,或m < 1.0) 的滑坡体。研究成果可为合理评价边坡稳定性分析方法提供参考。 相似文献
15.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides. 相似文献
16.
The shaking table tests are conducted on small scale nailed embankment slopes to study their behavior under dynamic conditions.
Medium grained local sand with a water content of 3% is used in the study. The embankment slope is constructed using the controlled-volume
compaction method. Three slope angles, 30°, 35° and 40° with a constant slope height of 18 cm are considered for the embankment.
Each slope is reinforced with six number of hollow aluminum nails in two rows. The ratio of the length of nail to slope height
(0.82) is same for all model slopes. The nails are inserted at three different inclinations. Three strain gauges are glued
to each nail to obtain local strains during shaking. The accelerations at the base and the crest of the model slopes are monitored
to find the acceleration responses of the embankments during the input ground motions. The numerical simulation of the model
tests is performed by a commercial program called FLAC. The results of the numerical analyses are found to be reasonably close
to the corresponding experimental results. 相似文献
17.
黄土边坡中竖直裂隙的发育往往会对边坡稳定产生影响。相对于平面应变机制,建立三维破坏机制下边坡稳定性分析方法更能接近实际边坡失稳情况。基于塑性极限分析上限法,考虑预先存在竖直裂隙的三维黄土边坡不同破坏机制（坡面破坏、坡脚破坏和坡底破坏）,建立能量平衡方程及其无量纲临界高度值γH/c表达式,采用随机搜索法得到了临界高度的上限解。分析了约束宽度、边坡坡度、内摩擦角以及裂隙深度对三维竖直裂隙黄土边坡临界高度值的影响。结果表明：对于坡脚破坏机制,临界高度值随着裂隙深度的增加而减小,减小至临界裂隙深度 (δ /H)min后,裂隙深度的增加不再影响临界高度值;临界裂隙深度随着坡度β 的增大而增大,随着内摩擦角φ 的增大而减小。当约束宽度B/H<0.8时,大多数破坏机制为坡面破坏。当约束宽度B/H=0.8、内摩擦角φ =10° 及约束宽度B/H=0.6、内摩擦角φ =15° 时,边坡的破坏从坡面破坏机制逐渐过渡到坡脚破坏机制。存在竖直裂隙的黄土边坡比完整边坡具有更小的临界高度,约束宽度及内摩擦角会对三维黄土边坡破坏机制产生影响。 相似文献
18.
Correlated random variables are commonly involved in probabilistic slope stability analysis, such as reliability analysis of slopes with spatially variable soil properties. This paper proposes a simple Correlated Sampling Technique (CST) for generating samples of correlated random variables. The CST firstly produces correlated standard-normally distributed samples through linear combinations of independent standard-normally distributed samples. Correlated arbitrarily distributed samples can then be obtained by the Nataf transformation. The CST was combined with FOSM (named CST-based FOSM) for probabilistic slope stability analysis. The slope reliabilities of a single-layered cohesive soil slope and a high earth and rockfill dam were analyzed to illustrate the CST-based FOSM. These illustrative examples indicated that the CST-based FOSM can accurately estimate the slope reliability indices with considerably fewer simulations (especially in the case of low failure probability) compared with direct MCS, and the slope reliability was sensitive to the correlation of the strength parameters. 相似文献
19.
System effects should be considered in the probabilistic analysis of a layered soil slope due to the potential existence of multiple failure modes. This paper presents a system reliability analysis approach for layered soil slopes based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed approach is achieved in a two-phase process. First, MARS is constructed based on a group of training samples that are generated by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). MARS is validated by a specific number of testing samples which are randomly generated per the underlying distributions. Second, the established MARS is integrated with MCS to estimate the system failure probability of slopes. Two types of multi-layered soil slopes (cohesive slope and c–φ slope) are examined to assess the capability and validity of the proposed approach. Each type of slope includes two examples with different statistics and system failure probability levels. The proposed approach can provide an accurate estimation of the system failure probability of a soil slope. In addition, the proposed approach is more accurate than the quadratic response surface method (QRSM) and the second-order stochastic response surface method (SRSM) for slopes with highly nonlinear limit state functions (LSFs). The results show that the proposed MARS-based MCS is a favorable and useful tool for the system reliability analysis of soil slopes. 相似文献
20.
在山西乡宁—吉县地区实测了7个具有代表性的自然极限状态黄土高边坡断面,建立边坡地层结构模型;选取研究区合理的黄土物理力学参数,并分地层年代对10个典型工点的黄土强度参数内聚力和内摩擦角的变异性进行分析;选取6组典型的强度参数变异系数组合,基于Monte-Carlo法进行可靠度模拟,评价该区边坡稳定性;采用自然类比法进行边坡设计。结果表明：边坡失效概率随坡高的变化趋势一致,均是中等坡高（49.8m）的边坡失效概率较大,低坡和高坡的失效概率较低;当变异系数较小时,边坡失效概率对坡高和坡度的变化敏感,而当变异系数较大时,边坡失效概率对坡高和坡度的变化不敏感;当坡型一定、强度参数变异系数较小时,边坡的稳定系数基本不变,而当参数变异系数超过某一界限时,稳定系数随变异系数的增大而增大,二者存在非线性相关关系;研究区黄土边坡处于基本稳定状态,但其失效概率最大达69.3%,平均21.1%,介于20%～30%的比例为33.3%,大于30%的比例为14.3%,可靠度指标介于-0.5～8.5,其中小于2.7的比例为88.1%;对于坡高约为50m的黄土高边坡,若取30%作为可接受失效概率,边坡坡度需降至45°以下,如果期望可接受失效概率在10%以内,则坡度不宜超过34°。 相似文献