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1.
Based on the published analysis of the average monthly variations in solar activity and temperature of the upper atmosphere in the region of the mesopause and lower thermosphere (after elimination of the average long-term variations during different 11-year cycles), it was indicated that the periods and amplitudes of the observed quasibiennial variations monotonically decrease in the course of time. The regularity of these variations is described by the Airy function, which represents a wave train with decreasing amplitude and period and reflects cyclic hydrodynamic processes in the Sun’s interior. A spectral analysis of the quasibiennial variations modelly described by the Airy function has been performed. It has been revealed that the period amplitudes near the average value for 2.25 years (27 months) are distributed normally with a dispersion of ～0.5 years. According to several publications, similar periods are obtained by analyzing measurements of long-term variations in solar activity and parameters of the lower and middle atmosphere. This indicates that the values of the periods are obtained randomly. Therefore, a standard Fourier analysis does not make it possible to determine a real character of the quasibiennial variations since a real physical process is not revealed in the course of this analysis. 相似文献
2.
A. A. Gusev 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2011,51(1):131-138
Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric precipitation, etc.) have temporal
variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of years or more. The unknown cause of these oscillations,
together with the similarity of some of them to known solar cycles, has stimulated attempts to relate these two phenomena.
The basic arguments against the existence of such a relationship are that variations in climatic parameters do not always
occur synchronously with the corresponding 11- and 22-year solar cycles: the phase shift between climatic and solar variations
is inconstant and changes with time from 0° to 180°. In addition, the energy of terrestrial manifestations of solar activity
seems insufficient to stimulate the considered weather-climatic processes, at least within the limits of the linear approach.
In the present work, it is shown that in some cases, these contradictions can be removed for variations with a period more
than 11 years under the assumption that climatic variations are forced oscillations driven by an external force (for example,
a force related to solar activity), that implies the existence of intrinsic (natural) climatic oscillations. The result serves
as an additional argument in favor of the reality of a sun-climate connection and probably points to its probable nonlinear
mechanism. 相似文献
3.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2000,62(9):725-735
Influence of short-term changes in solar activity on baric (pressure) field perturbations is studied using such characteristics as the Sazonov index (IS), describing the intensity of meridional transfer, the Blinova index (IB), describing the intensity of zonal transfer, and ‘vorticity area index’ (VAI) describing the tropospheric cyclonic perturbations. The epoch superposition method is used to reveal effects of the solar central meridian (CM) passage of active regions, the Forbush decreases (FD) in galactic cosmic rays, and the solar proton (SP) events. The results of the analysis show that influence of short-term changes in the solar activity on baric field perturbations is the most evident in the stratosphere (30 mbar-level). The meridional circulation in case of the FD and SP events begin to increase about 5–7 days before the key date, reaches maximum nearby the key date and decays after the key date. The meridional circulation in case of the solar CM passage of active regions starts to increase after the key date and reaches the maximum by 5–6 days. Fluctuations of baric field within periods of 5–7 days typical of meridional and zonal transfers in troposphere (500 mbar-level) are evidently connected with internal dynamics of the atmosphere, not with the effects of solar activity. VAI characterizing cyclonic activity in the troposphere, shows the striking correspondence to changes of the meridional circulation in the stratosphere. Comparison of changes in the stratospheric perturbations with behavior of the UV irradiance in course of the FD and SP events show their full correspondence at the initial stage of these processes. The conclusion is made that growth of baric perturbations observed in the stratosphere in associations with the FD and SP events before the key date is caused by the solar UV irradiance increase, whereas decay of the baric perturbations after the key date is related to direct influence of the solar energetic corpuscular fluxes on the stratosphere. 相似文献
4.
5.
V. A. Dergachev P. B. Dmitriev O. M. Raspopov H. Jungner 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2007,47(1):109-117
A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ～10000 to ～100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale. 相似文献
6.
Yu. A. Nagovitsyn 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2014,54(6):673-679
Prolonged variations in the duration of the Schwabe-Wolf (～11 years) and Suess (～200 years) cycles have been analyzed using different experimental data. It was shown that the duration of the Schwabe-Wolf cycle on a 2000-year time scale varied monotonically (on average, increasing) and cyclically (with a period of several hundred years); periods of 10.4, 11.0, and 11.4 years predominate on the occurrence frequency histogram. The Suess cycle duration was 200–290 years during the Holocene and tended to increase in the past. This was accompanied by cyclic variations with a period of 2300–2500 years corresponding to the Hallstatt cycle. Arguments for the assumption that the Suess cycle duration decreased by a factor of more than 1.5 over the past half billion years are presented. This may indicate that the solar rotation characteristics and convection zone parameters varied on long time scales during the Sun’s evolution on the main sequence. 相似文献
7.
Jean-Louis Le Mouël Vladimir Kossobokov Vincent Courtillot 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(1):62-76
We analyze the longest temperature series from Prague, Bologna and Uccle. We partition daily minimum and maximum temperatures and their differences in two subsets as a function of high vs low solar activity, using the superimposed epochs method. Differences display patterns with significant amplitudes and time constants ～3 months. These are recognized in all stations and are stable against a change in the analyzed period. Amplitude of variations is ～1 °C. Differences between average annual values corresponding to high vs low activity periods are also ～1 °C. Solar activity may account for these long-term temperature variations. These variations also present local characteristics, which may render identification of a global correlation delicate. We discuss possible physical mechanisms by which solar variation could force climate changes (e.g. through solar activity itself, the EUV part of the solar flux, cosmic rays, the downward ionosphere-earth current density, etc.). 相似文献
8.
A. V. Koval N. M. Gavrilov A. I. Pogoreltsev N. O. Shevchuk 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(2):281-289
Numerical modeling of changes in the zonal circulation and amplitudes of stationary planetary waves are performed with an accounting for the impact of solar activity variations on the thermosphere. A thermospheric version of the Middle/Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) is used to calculate the circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere at altitudes up to 300 km from the Earth’s surface. Different values of the solar radio emission flux in the thermosphere are specified at a wavelength of 10.7 cm to take into account the solar activity variations. The ionospheric conductivities and their variations in latitude, longitude, and time are taken into account. The calculations are done for the January–February period and the conditions of low, medium, and high solar activity. It was shown that, during high-activity periods, the zonal wind velocities increases at altitudes exceeding 150 km and decreases in the lower layers. The amplitudes of planetary waves at high solar activity with respect to the altitude above 120 km or below 100 km, respectively, are smaller or larger than those at low activity. These differences correspond to the calculated changes in the refractive index of the atmosphere for stationary planetary waves and the Eliassen–Palm flux. Changes in the conditions for the propagation and reflection of stationary planetary waves in the thermosphere may influence the variations in their amplitudes and the atmospheric circulation, including the lower altitudes of the middle atmosphere. 相似文献
9.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2003,65(9):1021-1033
Analysis of the time series into trigonometric series allows the investigation of cosmic-ray (CR) intensity variations in a range of periodicities from a few days to 1 year. By this technique the amplitude and the phase of all observed fluctuations can be given. For this purpose, daily CR intensity values recorded at Climax Neutron Monitor station for the time intervals 1979–1982 and 1989–1991, which correspond to the epochs of maximum activity for solar cycles 21 and 22, respectively, have been studied. The data analysis revealed the occurrence of new periodicities, common or not, in the two solar maxima. A search of our results was done by a power spectral analysis determining independently possible systematic periodic or quasi-periodic variations. Based on the fact that during these maxima the CR intensity tracks the solar flare index better than the sunspot number, the same analysis was performed on these data, which are equivalent to the total energy emitted by the solar flares. Both analyses result in periodicities with different probability of occurrence in different epochs. Occurrence at peaks of 70, 56, 35, 27, 21 and 14- days were observed in all time series, while the periods of 140–154 and 105 days are reported only in the 21st solar maximum and are of particular importance. All of the short-term periods except of those at 27 and 154-days are recorded for first time in CR data, but they had already been observed in the solar activity parameters. Moreover, each parameter studied here has a very different power spectrum distribution in periods larger than 154 days. The possible origin of the observed variations in terms of the CR interaction in the upper atmosphere and the solar cavity dynamics is also discussed here. 相似文献
10.
激发态氮分子N*2在电离层F区中起着重要的作用,它使F区占主导地位的O+离子的损失率增大,从而使该区的电子浓度减少. 本文利用理论电离层数值模型,通过考虑与不考虑N*2的作用,对包括1990年6月、1997年5月、1998年5月以及2000年4月磁暴事件在内的时间区间的电离层响应情形进行模拟研究,并与实测结果进行对比. 结果表明,N*2对电离层电子浓度的影响在太阳活动高年非常明显,在太阳活动低年虽有些影响,但效果并不明显,其程度远不如高年. 在太阳活动高年,不仅是磁暴期间,在较宁静期间也必须考虑N*2的影响. 而且,在考虑N*2的作用时,还与激发态振动温度Tν有关,在采用Tν=Tn（其中Tn为背景中性大气的温度）的简化处理时,所得结果与观测结果的符合程度不如对Tν进行精确计算时所得的结果好. 模拟结果还表明,太阳活动高年,N*2作用的结果主要是使150km高度以上的F区电离层电子浓度减少,而对150km以下高度的电离层电子浓度则影响不大. 另外,N*2基本不影响F2层峰高hmF2的值. 相似文献
11.
R. T. Gushchina A. V. Belov E. A. Eroshenko V. N. Obridko E. Paouris B. D. Shelting 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2014,54(4):430-436
Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated. 相似文献
12.
Summary Using the long-term relations between solar motion and solar activity, long-term relations between solar activity and air temperature variations on the Earth's surface have been studied. A long-term periodicity in the period range from 25 to 250 years, corresponding to the periodicity of solar motion and solar activity, has been found in four very long European surface air temperature series. The positions of the spectral peaks approximately obey the relation pi=178.7/i, i=1, 2, ... . Similar long-term patterns of solar and geomagnetic activity and of global surface air temperature have been found in the years 1861 to 1990. The results indicate that the solar activity impact on the climate could be significant, and that the prolonged minimum of solar activity, predicted from solar motion for the next 2 – 3 decades, could decreace global air temperatures. 相似文献
13.
The effect of solar and galactic cosmic ray variations on the duration of elementary synoptic processes (ESPs) in the Atlantic-European sector of the Northern Hemisphere has been studied. It has been found that solar cosmic ray (SCR) bursts result in an increase in the duration of ESPs, which belong to the western and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation. Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are accompanied by an increase in the duration of ESPs, which belong to the meridional atmospheric circulation form, and in a decrease in the duration of ESPs, which are related to the western and eastern circulation forms. It has been assumed that the observed variations in the ESP duration are caused by the effect of short-period cosmic ray variations on the intensity of cyclonic processes at middle and high latitudes, namely, the regeneration of cyclones near the southeastern coast of Greenland after SCR bursts and the development of blocking anticyclones over the northeastern Atlantic, Europe, and Scandinavia during GCR Forbush decreases. 相似文献
14.
Spatial-temporal and spectral features of ground geomagnetic pulsations in the frequency range of 1–5 mHz at the initial phase of a strong magnetic storm of the 24th cycle of solar activity (August 5–6, 2011, with a Dst-variation in the storm maximum of ?110 nT) are analyzed. Large opposite in sign amplitudes of variations in IMF parameters (from ?20 to +20 nT) at a high velocity of the solar wind (～650 km/s) accompanied by intense bursts in solar-wind density (up to ～50 cm?3) were distinctive feature of interplanetary medium conditions causing the storm. Geomagnetic Pi3 pulsations global in longitude and latitude and in-phase in the middle and equatorial latitudes were found. The onset of pulsation generation was caused by a pulse of dynamic pressure of the solar wind (～20 nPa), i.e., by a considerable compression of the magnetosphere. The maximum (2–3 mHz) in the amplitude spectrum of near-equatorial pulsations coincided with the maximum of pulsations in the daytime polar cap. After the next jump of the dynamic pressure of the solar wind (～35 nPa), an additional maximum appeared in the pulsation spectrum in the frequency band of ～3.5–4.5 mHz. Global pulsations suddenly stopped after a sharp decrease in the solar-wind dynamic pressure and corresponding extension of the magnetosphere. The obtained results are compared with the time dynamics of the position and shape of the plasmapause. 相似文献
15.
R. T. Gushchina A. V. Belov V. N. Obridko B. D. Shelting 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2010,50(4):436-442
Based on observations of long-term variations in galactic cosmic rays (CRs) on Earth and in the near-Earth space, we have
determined, using our own semiempirical model, modulation of galactic CRs during solar cycles 19–23. The modulation model
relates CR variations to the characteristics of the solar magnetic field obtained for the surface of the solar wind source
at distances of 2.50 and 3.25 solar radii. The main focus is CR behavior at the minimums of cycles 19–23 and specific features
of CR modulation at a prolonged (as compared to previous cycles) minimum of cycle 23, which is still ongoing. CR modulation
at minimums related to a change in the solar field dipole component during this period of the cycle has been considered. It
is indicated that the long-term variations in CRs are better described if the last two years (2007 and 2008) of cycle 23 with
anomalously low solar activity (SA) are included in the model. The role and value of the contribution of the cyclic variations
in each index used in the proposed CR modulation model to the observed CR modulation have been estimated. 相似文献
16.
The spatial and temporal structure of the effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux variations on the lower atmosphere circulation has been studied based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis archive for 1948–2006 and MSLP (Climatic Research Unit, UK) data for 1873–2000. It has been shown that the GCR effects on pressure variations are characterized by a strong latitudinal and regional dependence, which is determined by specific features of the tropospheric circulation in the studied regions. The distribution of the correlation coefficients for mean yearly values of atmospheric pressure with the GCR flux intensity is closely related to the position of the main climatological fronts. The periodic (∼60 years) changes in the correlation sign of the pressure at high and middle latitudes with Wolf numbers have been revealed. It has been suggested that the changes of the sign of SA/GCR effects on atmospheric pressure are caused by the changes of the macrocirculation epochs, which, in turn, may be related to large-scale processes on the Sun. 相似文献
17.
The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs during 1997–2006 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57° N, 200° E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (～500 h) during ～370 nights of observations (～3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum ～36% at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration frequency corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of photometric observations are presented for 1997–2006. 相似文献
18.
Wayan Suparta Zainol Abidin Abdul Rashid Mohd. Alauddin Mohd. Ali Baharudin Yatim Grahame J. Fraser 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2008,70(11-12):1419-1447
Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods. 相似文献
19.
G. S. Ivanov-Kholodny E. I. Mogilevsky V. Ye. Chertoprud 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2006,46(2):139-145
Using the data of 1960–1999 on solar magnetic fields on the source surface and the Higuchi method, the fractal dimension of changes in the solar magnetic field energy at various heliolatitudes and in different time intervals is analyzed. The fractal dimension obtained on a moving 1-year interval displays substantial time variations. The 11-year cycle, which dominates at high latitudes, and quasi-biennial variations (QBVs), which dominate at low latitudes and are similar to QBVs of solar activity indices, are traced in these variations. Thus, solar QBVs that appear in all heliomagnetic activity indices are also present in the fractal structure of the solar magnetic field variations. 相似文献
20.
The accuracy limitations of critical frequency predictions in the ionospheric F2 layer are considered, which arise due to random variations in the Sun’s extreme UV radiation during the month. An analysis of δf (relative values of monthly rms scatters of the F2-layer critical frequencies) and the appropriate δu values (monthly rms scatters of extreme UV radiation) has shown their dependence on the solar activity level. A conclusion is drawn that when prognostic models of monthly medians are used for forecasting foF2 for a particular date, the error can hardly be less than ～7% at low solar activity and ～15% at a higher solar activity level. 相似文献