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1.
Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be
in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from
very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding
applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of
required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations
of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different
models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected
were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D
hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model
considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct
damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE
land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE
land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation
depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and
contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary
damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide
an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D
model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation
effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data
requirements, and long computation times. 相似文献
2.
Thanks to modelling advances and the increase in computational resources in recent years, it is now feasible to perform 2-D urban flood simulations at very high spatial resolutions and to conduct flood risk assessments at the scale of single buildings. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of flood loss estimates obtained in such micro-scale analyses to the spatial representation of the buildings in the 2D flood inundation model and to the hazard attribution methods in the flood loss model. The results show that building representation has a limited effect on the exposure values (i.e. the number of elements at risk), but can have a significant impact on the hazard values attributed to the buildings. On the other hand, the two methods for hazard attribution tested in this work result in remarkably different flood loss estimates. The sensitivity of the predicted flood losses to the attribution method is comparable to the one associated with the vulnerability curve. The findings highlight the need for incorporating these sources of uncertainty into micro-scale flood risk prediction methodologies. 相似文献
3.
An innovative approach in the investigation of complex landscapes for hydraulic modelling applications is the use of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) that can lead to a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Another notable factor in flood modelling is the selection of the hydrodynamic model (1D, 2D and 1D/2D), especially in complex riverine topographies, that can influence the accuracy of flood inundation area and mapping. This paper uses different types of hydraulic–hydrodynamic modelling approaches and several types of river and riparian area spatial resolution for the implementation of a sensitivity analysis for floodplain mapping and flood inundation modelling process at ungauged watersheds. Four data sets have been used for the construction of the river and riparian areas: processed and unprocessed TLS data, topographic land survey data and typical digitized contours from 1:5000-scale topographic maps. Modelling approaches combinations consist of: one-dimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, MIKE 11), two-dimensional hydraulic models (MIKE 21, MIKE 21 FM) and combinations of coupled hydraulic models (MIKE 11/MIKE 21) within the MIKE FLOOD platform. Historical flood records and estimated flooded area derived from an observed extreme flash-flood event have been used in the validation process using 2 × 2 contingency tables. Flood inundation maps have been generated for each modelling approach and landscape configuration at the lower part of Xerias River reach at Volos, Greece, and compared for assessing the sensitivity of input data and model structure uncertainty. Results provided from contingency table analysis indicate the sensitivity of floodplain modelling on the DEM spatial resolution and the hydraulic modelling approach. 相似文献
4.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
5.
Frequent flood is a concern for most of the coastal regions of India. The importance of flood maps in governing strategies for flood risk management is of prime importance. Flood inundation maps are considered dependable output generated from simulation results from hydraulic models in evaluating flood risks. In the present work, a continuous hydrologic-hydraulic model has been implemented for mapping the flood, caused by the Baitarani River of Odisha, India. A rainfall time-series data were fed into the hydrologic model and the runoff generated from the model was given as an input into the hydraulic model. The study was performed using the HEC-HMS model and the FLO-2D model to map the extent of flooding in the area. Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 90 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, Land use/Land cover map (LULC), soil texture data of the basin area were used to compute the topographic and hydraulic parameters. Flood inundation was simulated using the FLO-2D model and based on the flow depth, hazard zones were specified using the MAPPER tool of the hydraulic model. Bhadrak District was found to be the most hazard-prone district affected by the flood of the Baitarani River. The result of the study exhibited the hydraulic model as a utile tool for generating inundation maps. An approach for assessing the risk of flooding and proper management could help in mitigating the flood. The automated procedure for mapping and the details of the study can be used for planning flood disaster preparedness in the worst affected area.
相似文献6.
A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. 相似文献
7.
Modelling flash flood propagation in urban areas using a two-dimensional numerical model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam/dyke break wave. A two-dimensional (2-D) depth-averaged shallow-water model is used, with a refined grid of quadrilaterals and triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2-D shallow-water equations are solved using the explicit second-order scheme that is adapted from MUSCL approach. Four applications are described to demonstrate the potential benefits and limits of 2-D modelling: (i) laboratory experimental dam-break wave in the presence of an isolated building; (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce river valley in Italy; (iii) flash flood in October 1988 at the city of Nîmes (France) and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacárcel (Spain). Computed flow depths and velocities compare well with recorded data, although for the experimental study on dam-break wave some discrepancies are observed around buildings, where the flow is strongly 3-D in character. The numerical simulations show that the flow depths and flood wave celerity are significantly affected by the presence of buildings in comparison with the original floodplain. Further, this study confirms the importance of topography and roughness coefficient for flood propagation simulation. 相似文献
8.
Flood risk assessment is usually performed by application of sophisticated mathematical models of river flow. However, there are cases when it is required to assess the risk in the lack of data conditions or a limited time available. In such cases, it is advisable to use some simplifications, which provide reliable results faster. This study proposes a hybrid approach to the flood risk assessment combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. The article describes various methods to assess the flood risk, such as likelihood of flooding, magnitude of the flood, average annual damage, maximum damage and expectation of damage. The authors examined special cases of calculation of the mathematical expectation of harm and zoning in the corresponding indicators. This approach is designed for the conditions of the Russian Federation, but it can be adapted for other regions. It is based on the use of two types of risk maps. The first type of maps is intended to define the mathematical expectation of damage zones for reference building with possibility of risk calculation for other buildings using multiple factors. The second type of maps is designed for the purposes of land use regulation for floodplains based on a priori statistical estimates of flood risk. 相似文献
9.
Integration of RADARSAT and GIS modelling for estimating future Red River flood risk 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new geomatics-based approach for flood prediction was developed and used to model the magnitude and spatial extent of a
future Red River flood in southern Manitoba. This approach combines the statistical modelling capabilities of Markov (non-spatial)
analysis and logistic regression (spatial) within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, utilizing modelling inputs
derived from remotely sensed RADARSAT imagery and other digital geographic data. The 1997 Red River flood was the second largest
in recorded history, and the largest for which accurate data are available. The results indicate: (i) a flood “one time interval-in
terms of 3 days time unit measurement- larger in area” than the 1997 flood is expected to affect 17.6% more land (an additional
47.6 km2) within the study area compared to 1997 levels based on Markovian probability derived from observations from the 1997 event;
and (ii) the majority of this excess flooding will take place on agricultural land; no additional communities are expected
to be at risk. Quantitative assessment verified the capability of this modelling approach for producing statistically significant
results. The methodology used in this research would be easily transferable to other areas, and may provide the basis for
a viable alternative to conventional hydrologic-based flood prediction approaches
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
10.
Urban pluvial flash floods have become a matter of widespread concern, as they severely impact people’s lives in urban areas. Hydrological and hydraulic models have been widely used for urban flood management and urban planning. Traditionally, to reduce the complexity of urban flood modelling and simulations, simplification or generalization methods have been used; for example, some models focus on the simulation of overland water flow, and some models focus on the simulation of the water flow in sewer systems. However, the water flow of urban floods includes both overland flow and sewer system flow. The overland flow processes are impacted by many different geographical features in what is an extremely spatially heterogeneous environment. Therefore, this article is based on two widely used models (SWMM and ANUGA) that are coupled to develop a bi-directional method of simulating water flow processes in urban areas. The open source overland flow model uses the unstructured triangular as the spatial discretization scheme. The unstructured triangular-based hydraulic model can be better used to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the urban surfaces. So, the unstructured triangular-based model is an essential condition for heterogeneous feature-based urban flood simulation. The experiments indicate that the proposed coupled model in this article can accurately depict surface waterlogged areas and that the heterogeneous feature-based urban flood model can be used to determine different types of urban flow processes.
相似文献11.
C. Neuhold 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):2015-2030
Landfills are mainly located in lowland areas close to settlements inducing flood risk of potential environmental contamination and adverse health effects. During recent flood events, numerous landfill sites were reportedly exposed to inundations, leading to erosion of landfilled material and release of pollutants threatening humans and the environment. Although emissions from landfills under regular operating conditions are well investigated, the behaviour and associated emissions in case of flooding are widely unknown. To enable environmental risk management, flood-prone landfills must be identified to establish priorities for subsequent protection and mitigation measures. This paper presents two flood risk assessment approaches at different spatial scales: a macro-scale assessment approach (MaSA) and a micro-scale assessment approach (MiSA). Both methodologies aim to determine the proportion of landfills endangered by flooding, and evaluate the impacts. The latter are expressed by means of risk categories (minor to serious) of impacts that flooded sites might have on humans and the environment. The evaluation of 1,064 landfills in Austria based on MaSA yields roughly 30 % of landfills located within or close to flood risk zones. Material inventories of 147 sites exposed to flooding are established, and potential emissions during a flood event are estimated. Three representative case study areas are selected and investigated in detail by applying the MiSA approach based on 2D hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios to validate the macro-scale screening approach (MaSA). The applications of MiSA and MaSA outlines that hazardous emissions due to flooding can lead to significant impacts on the environment. Uncertainty associated with related processes and data sources is considerably high. Nevertheless, both MiSA and MaSA provide a decision support tool to identify landfills with imminent risk for humans and the environment. Therefore, the described methodologies provide toolsets to enable environmental risk reduction by applying a priority-ranked flood risk management. 相似文献
12.
采用一维-二维耦合数学模型对溃堤洪水进行模拟,可以发挥两者优势,提高计算效率。将基于黎曼近似解Godunov格式的一维、二维水流数学模型通过堰流公式进行耦合,实现交界面的水力要素交互;一维、二维模型均采用中心形式的有限体积法求解,分别采用HLL格式和Roe格式计算界面通量,具有一致的空间同步性。通过经典算例验证了模型的可靠性和稳定性,应用耦合模型对1998年松花江干流胖头泡溃堤洪水进行了模拟计算,较好地模拟了溃堤洪水的演进过程与淹没范围,对200年一遇洪水的分洪效果进行了分析,为此区域的分洪利用及松花江中上游防洪调度提供参考依据。 相似文献
13.
Xiaoling Wang Wenlong Chen Zhengyin Zhou Yushan Zhu Cheng Wang Zhen Liu 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1147-1174
Dense buildings are the major factor affecting urban flood routing. Currently, the study of urban dam-break flood routing primarily focuses on a simplified terrain model and 2D shallow water equations, which ignore the effects of dense urban buildings. Furthermore, the complex interactions between the dam-break wave and the wall surfaces of buildings are not reflected in the results. To tackle these problems, three-dimensional flood routing with a high-precision digital model of an urban area is studied in this paper. Firstly, the vector data of various land types is extracted from a remote sensing image, and the NURBS algorithm based on the TIN algorithm is introduced to construct a three-dimensional terrain model. Coupled with the vector data and the terrain model, a three-dimensional digital model of the urban area is established. Next, a three-dimensional \(k{-}\varepsilon\) turbulence model is proposed for the flood routing simulation. A polyhedral grid with a second-order accuracy and a discrete format is used to divide the digital model of the urban area, and the governing equations are solved using the PISO algorithm. Finally, the superiority of the 3D mathematical model and the computational efficiency of the polyhedral mesh model are validated according to the urban flood routing experiments of Testa and Soares-Frazão. An urban reservoir, located in SZ City, China, is modelled to show that a dam-break flood in an urban area exhibits significant three-dimensional characteristics. Moreover, due to the surrounding buildings, the flood exhibits complex three-dimensional turbulence phenomena, including collision, reflection and vortices. 相似文献
14.
The impact of natural hazards on mankind has increased dramatically over the past decades. Global urbanization processes and increasing spatial concentrations of exposed elements induce natural hazard risk at a uniquely high level. To mitigate affiliated perils requires detailed knowledge about elements at risk. Considering a high spatiotemporal variability of elements at risk, detailed information is costly in terms of both time and economic resources and therefore often incomplete, aggregated, or outdated. To alleviate these restrictions, the availability of very-high-resolution satellite images promotes accurate and detailed analysis of exposure over various spatial scales with large-area coverage. In the past, valuable approaches were proposed; however, the design of information extraction procedures with a high level of automatization remains challenging. In this paper, we uniquely combine remote sensing data and volunteered geographic information from the OpenStreetMap project (OSM) (i.e., freely accessible geospatial information compiled by volunteers) for a highly automated estimation of crucial exposure components (i.e., number of buildings and population) with a high level of spatial detail. To this purpose, we first obtain labeled training segments from the OSM data in conjunction with the satellite imagery. This allows for learning a supervised algorithmic model (i.e., rotation forest) in order to extract relevant thematic classes of land use/land cover (LULC) from the satellite imagery. Extracted information is jointly deployed with information from the OSM data to estimate the number of buildings with regression techniques (i.e., a multi-linear model from ordinary least-square optimization and a nonlinear support vector regression model are considered). Analogously, urban LULC information is used in conjunction with OSM data to spatially disaggregate population information. Experimental results were obtained for the city of Valparaíso in Chile. Thereby, we demonstrate the relevance of the approaches by estimating number of affected buildings and population referring to a historical tsunami event.
相似文献15.
Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions. 相似文献
16.
现有针对河湖水系连通伴生风险分析的方法或不具备物理过程模拟,或缺乏对风险随机性的探讨。以沂沭河水系连通工程为例,在水力学模型的基础上,考虑连通河网不同河流洪峰相关性,创建随机水情条件下河湖水系连通伴生风险分析模型。通过1 200组水情条件,对沂沭河水系上游进行洪水过程模拟,针对橡胶坝可能造成的洪峰叠加问题,提出不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝运行调度风险管控建议。结果表明:① 50年一遇与100年一遇洪水重现期条件下,均呈现出橡胶坝坝址处水位风险极高（概率P>0.8）,流速风险较低（P < 0.3）的规律,且每当橡胶坝高度升高25%的设计坝高时,沂河与沭河坝前水位风险皆提高约70%,沭河坝址处流速风险降低约50%。②若在汛前塌坝下泄蓄水,人为洪峰的叠加会使沭河中下游河段产生极高风险。③通过划分水位、流速综合洪水风险安全域,洪水重现期50年一遇时,建议沂沭河橡胶坝在汛前调节至低于50%设计坝高,且控制沭河水深和流速分别在12 m和2.23 m/s以内,可以降低水位和流速风险至低风险（P < 0.4）;洪水重现期100年一遇时,需将橡胶坝调至25%设计坝高以下,或者汛前尽早缓慢塌坝下泄蓄水,才能有效降低沂沭河水系防洪压力。 相似文献
17.
The hydrogeomorphological method for delimiting flood risk zones in France was developed some twenty years ago. It is based on a simple principle: the outer limits of a stream's flood plain constitute the outer envelope of past floods. These limits are determined with the use of aerial photographs and field surveys of micro-topography as well as analyses of deposit granulometry and colour. Indications of present or past land use (fields, location and distribution of archaeological sites, houses and farm buildings, roads) are also useful. This field-based method long remained ignored, but being reliable, easy to use and inexpensive, it has now been incorporated into the package of methods recommended by French risk-prevention plans (PPRI). The many recent catastrophes that have occurred over the past fifteen years in the Mediterranean regions of southern France demonstrated both the inadequacy of the hydrological–hydraulic method and the reliability of the hydrogeomorphological method, which can, however, be improved by setting observations for the present period against information on the more ancient Holocene evolution of flood plains. To cite this article: J.-L. Ballais et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
18.
This study proposed an inverse modelling procedure for evaluating the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity and its variation induced by excavation in fractured rocks by integrating a strain-dependent hydraulic conductivity model. The time-series measurements of both hydraulic head and discharge were used to construct the objective function for improving the reliability, which was solved with a combined method of orthogonal design, transient groundwater flow modelling, artificial neural network and genetic algorithm-based optimization for reducing the computational cost. The proposed methodology proves its effectiveness by successful inverse modelling of the groundwater flow around the underground caverns at the Jinping-I Hydropower Station. 相似文献
19.
Hydrological and geomorphological criteria to evaluate the dispersion risk of waste sludge generated by the Aznalcollar mine spill (SW Spain) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
G. Benito Alfonso Benito-Calvo Francesc Gallart Juan Pedro Martín-Vide David Regües Ernest Bladé 《Environmental Geology》2001,40(4-5):417-428
Following the Aznalcóllar pyrite mine disaster (Seville, Spain) which caused the spilling of some 4.5?hm3 of acid water, the floodplains of the rivers Agrio and Guadiamar were rapidly cleaned of waste sludge. However, despite the efficiency of cleaning activities, there is still evidence of a fine superficial layer of sludge and some soil contamination, with the consequent risk of remobilisation of the pollutants by water erosion. There is much concern that these contaminated sediments may affect the precious ecosystems of the Doñana National Park and the Guadalquivir marshlands. This report describes the evaluation of the risk of mobilisation of the waste sludge through (1) detailed geomorphological analysis, indicating potential areas of erosion-sedimentation on the floodplains of the rivers Agrio and Guadiamar, and predicted dynamics of the waste sludge, and (2) evaluation of the potential dispersion of the waste sludge provoked by future flood events, including hydraulic calculations to model channel flow and the analysis of the texture of the sludge to obtain critical transport and sedimentation values. Findings suggest that the waste sludge is likely to be transported and deposited within the Doñana National Park during future flood events. 相似文献
20.
为定量评估分蓄洪工程启用过程中蓄滞洪区的洪水风险等级,创建了基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型。该模型采用二维水动力学模块计算蓄滞洪区的洪水演进过程,利用洪水中人体跌倒失稳公式及洪水中房屋、农作物损失的计算关系式,评估各类受淹对象的洪水风险等级。然后将二维水动力学模块计算的洪水要素与两个物理模型试验值进行对比,表明二维水动力学模块的计算精度良好。最后计算了荆江分洪工程启用时分洪区内洪水的演进过程,并评估洪灾中群众的危险等级和财产损失。计算结果表明:洪水演进至140 h时,蓄滞洪区群众、房屋、水稻和棉花的平均损失率分别为85%、59%、63%和72%。模型中提出的采用基于受淹对象失稳机制的洪水风险分析方法,比以往经验水深法划分风险等级的适用性更好,不仅能为洪水风险管理及蓄滞洪区启用标准制定提供参考,也能推广应用于溃坝或堰塞湖溃决等极端洪水风险评估。 相似文献