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针对海上新能源开发的环境风险问题,基于中国近海的海面风场、海浪和热带气旋资料,统计其高值频率、概率极值、平均值、气候变化趋势等指标;利用层次分析法和互反判断矩阵计算近地层大风、大浪、热带气旋危险性指数,并对三者的综合危险性指数进行区划,为中国近海海上风能、波浪能、海流能、潮汐能等开发活动规避自然风险提供参考。研究表明:海上新能源开发环境风险偏高的海区包括南海北部、吕宋海峡、菲律宾海中北部等,该海域热带气旋引发局地大风巨浪或将能量经吕宋海峡向南海传播形成大浪区;风险居中的海区包括北部湾、南海中部、菲律宾海中南部、台湾周边沿岸海域、东海中部等,这里虽然有台湾海峡、越南东南部海域等盛行大风区,但其相对热带气旋来说风险较低;风险偏低的海区包括渤海、黄海大部、东海西北部、南海南部等,这里风浪的各项指标都很低,热带气旋的直接和间接影响几乎为零。此外,利用有效风速出现频率、波浪能开发有效时间占比,分别进行风能、波浪能资源区划,给出海上风能、波浪能的资源与风险综合区划。 相似文献
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利用1979—2021 年的 ERA5 再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解法、Mann-Kendall 趋势检验法等统计方法,对“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”相关海区的海表风场与风能密度的空间分布特征、季节变化特征以及长期变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：(1)研究海域风能密度在不同季节表现出很大的空间差异,夏季的阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾,冬季的中国南海,以及全年的热带南印度洋风能资源都极为丰富。(2)研究时段内,中国南海北部及附近海域、阿拉伯海西部、孟加拉湾西部以及热带西北印度洋风能密度等级整体较高。(3)研究海域的风能密度以年变化特征为主,其中中国南海风能密度的季节变幅最大且在春、秋两季表现出明显的转换特征。(4)在研究海区中,结合水深条件与风能密度时空变化特征的评估结果,可以重点关注台湾海峡、吕宋海峡、中南半岛东南沿海、阿拉伯海西部近岸海域及热带西北印度洋近岸大陆架海域风能资源的开发利用,加强其他海域风能资源的储备。此研究可为“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”风能资源的中长期开发规划提供依据。 相似文献
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文章利用ERA-40海表10m风场,采用一元线性回归方法,计算印度洋海表风速在45年间(1957年9月至2002年8月)的逐年变化趋势,为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设、海上风能开发和全球气候变化研究等提供科学依据。研究表明:海表风速呈显著性逐年递增的区域主要分布于25°S—10°N的海域和南半球咆哮西风带所控制的海域,递增趋势为0.01~0.035m·s-1·a-1,仅零星海域呈显著性递减趋势,其余海域的海表风速无显著变化趋势;南、北印度洋的海表风速分别以0.010 2m·s-1·a-1和0.004 7m·s-1·a-1的速度显著性逐年线性递增,年平均海表风速分别在7.5m·s-1左右和5.2m·s-1左右;南、北印度洋存在共同的2.6~2.7a和5.2a的变化周期以及26a以上的长周期变化,且海表风速的突变期分别为1989年和1978—1980年。 相似文献
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海洋功能区划是实施海域使用和海洋环境保护管理的重要依据,是实现海域合理开发和可持续利用的重要手段。海岛作为连接陆域和海域的海上基地,其资源丰富,逐渐成为发展海洋经济的第二支点,是海洋功能区划中不可或缺的部分。了解海岛土地利用与覆盖变化是对海岛海洋功能区划执行情况进行评估的基础。遥感具有高分辨率、对同一地区进行快速、重复监测的特点,被广泛用于大范围的土地利用与覆盖变化监测。文章利用国产CBERS-02BCCD遥感影像,对粤西6个主要海岛的功能区划执行情况进行了监测,结果表明：粤西6个主要海岛的实际开发利用类型与区划类型间存在一些不符合区域,这些不符合区域中大部分没有丧失原有属性,即从实际类型可以开发利用为区划类型,但也有部分区域丧失了原有属性,很难再利用为区划类型。 相似文献
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《海洋预报》2017,(5)
基于1988—2009年高时空分辨率的CCMP风场资料,分析了中国海及周边海域风能密度的分布特征,给出了这些海域风能密度的整体变化趋势、变化趋势的区域性差异和季节性差异,以期为风能资源开发工作提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)中国海及周边海域风能密度大值区主要分布于琉球群岛-台湾岛-南海大风区一线,呈东北-西南向带状分布,年平均风能密度能达到450 W/m~2以上。渤海、渤海海峡、黄海北部的年平均风能密度基本在200 W/m~2以内;黄海中南部为200~350 W/m~2;东海基本都在300 W/m~2以上;5°N以北的南海大部分海域的风能密度基本都在200 W/m~2以上;(2)近22 a期间,该区域的风能密度整体上以4.1637 W/(m2·yr)的速度逐年递增;(3)中国海及周边海域大范围海域的风能密度表现出显著性逐年线性递增趋势,同时也表现出较大的区域性差异,仅部分零星海域的风能密度表现出显著性递减趋势;(4)中国海及周边海域风能密度的变化趋势在近22 a期间表现出很大的季节性差异。冬季的递增趋势最为强劲,呈递增趋势的区域范围夜最广,春季次之,夏季和秋季呈显著性递增的区域范围相对较小。 相似文献
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风能潜力评估是风电场选址工作的基础工作。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析数据,采用风功率密度（Wind Power Density,WPD）中值、容量系数（Capacity Factor,CF）以及鲁棒性变异系数（Robust Coefficient of Variation, RCoV）三种指标,对中国近海浅水区域的风能潜力进行评估,研究结果表明:（1）台湾海峡和东海南部风能资源最为丰富并且风能利用率最高,风功率密度中值和容量系数分别为400~900 和0.45~0.7。总体来看,风功率密度中值从渤海到台湾海峡,呈逐渐增加的趋势,从台湾海峡到琼州湾,呈逐渐减小的趋势,容量系数大小分布情况相似。（2）鲁棒性变异系数大小无明显分布规律,广东湛江近岸海域鲁棒性变异系数在0.70~0.75之间,风能发电量最为稳定,但该地区的风能资源丰富程度较低。（3）福州近岸海域不仅有丰富的风能资源和风能利用率,且发电量较为稳定。在不考虑其它因素的影响下,是中国近海浅水区域建设海上风电场的最佳地点。 相似文献
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天津市海洋功能区划的比较研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用对比分析法和GIS时空数据模型,研究2008年版天津市海洋功能区划相对2000年版的变化特征,分析区划分类体系和编制原则的变化,探讨了经济、社会、资源和环境等条件的变化,并分析区划空间结构和布局的变化特征。结果表明:(1)按照对人地关系疏密程度划分区划分类体系有利于识别开发、整治和保护区域界线;(2)兼容功能是解决当前区划体系存在主要问题的有效思路;(3)增殖区是天津市区划最大的变化来源,而围海造地区是主要的变化取向;(4)第二、三产业用海功能区呈现空间扩大趋势,近岸海域的增殖区呈现规模减小、空间布局转向较深海域趋势。 相似文献
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文章构建国内外首份"21世纪海上丝绸之路"波浪能资源大数据框架,主要包括波浪能气候背景特征、波浪能等级区划、波浪能短期预报、涌浪能特征、资源长期变化趋势和资源中长期预测6大模块;按照三维网格和时间序列实现波浪能信息的全面数字化和全息化存储,对数据进行质量控制并实现四维可视化。研究成果可广泛运用于海上风能和海流能等海洋新能源的大数据建设,为国家和参与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设的决策人员、研究人员和工程人员提供数据支撑和决策支持,助力"21世纪海上丝绸之路"新能源开发。 相似文献
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基于高分辨率CFSR(climate forecast system reanalysis)风场资料、气候态海洋混合层厚度资料和卫星高度计海面高度异常资料,本文估计了大气风场向全球海洋混合层的近惯性能通量和近惯性能量输入功率,并探究了混合层厚度、风场时间分辨率、经验衰减系数和中尺度涡旋涡度对近惯性能通量和能量输入功率的影响。浮标实测风场和流速表明,本文所用的风场和阻尼平板模型可用于估计风场向全球海洋的近惯性能通量。本文计算得到的大气向全球海洋输入近惯性能量的功率为0.56TW(1TW=10~(12)W),其中北半球贡献0.22TW,南半球贡献0.34TW。在时间上,风场的近惯性能通量呈现各个半球冬季最强、夏季最弱的特征,这和西风带风场的季节变化有关。在空间上,近惯性能通量的高值海域为南、北半球西风带海洋,尤其是南大洋。混合层厚度和风场空间不均匀性使得西风带近惯性能通量呈现纬向变化,即海盆西部强于海盆东部。风场时间分辨率对近惯性能通量的估计至关重要,低时间分辨率风场对近惯性能通量的低估达到13%—30%。阻尼平板模型中的经验衰减系数对近惯性能通量估计的影响不超过5%。中尺度涡旋涡度仅改变近惯性能通量的空间分布,而对全球近惯性能量输入功率的影响可以忽略。 相似文献
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C. J. C. REASON 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2000,52(2):203-223
Observations of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST), surface air temperature and winds over the Southern Hemisphere are presented and an ocean general circulation model applied towards investigating links between the SST variability and that of the overlying atmosphere. The results suggest that the dynamical effect of the wind stress anomalies is significant mainly in the neighbourhood of the western boundary currents and their outflows across the mid‐latitudes of each Southern Hemisphere basin (more so in the South Indian and South Atlantic than in the South Pacific Ocean) and in the equatorial upwelling zones. Over most of the subtropics to mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, changes in net surface heat flux (particularly in latent heat) appear to be more important for the SST variability than dynamical effects. Implications of these results for modelling and understanding low frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere as well as possible links with mechanisms of decadal/interdecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere are discussed. 相似文献
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An idealised two-basin model is used to investigate the impact of the wind field on the heat exchange between the ocean basins. The scalar potential of the divergent component of the horizontal heat flux is computed, which gives a 'coarse-grained' image of the surface heat flux that captures the large-scale structure of the horizontal heat transport. Further the non-divergent component is examined, as well as the meridional heat transport and the temperature–latitude overturning stream function. A sensitivity analysis examines the heat transport response to changes in wind stress at different latitudes. The results are compared with results from an eddy-permitting global circulation model. The westerly wind stress over the Southern Ocean has two effects: a local reduction of the surface heat loss in response to the equatorward surface Ekman drift, and a global re-routing of the heat export from the Indo-Pacific. Without wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific heat export is released to the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean, and the net heat transport in the southern Atlantic is southward. With wind forcing, the Indo-Pacific export enters the Atlantic through the Aghulas and is released in the Northern Hemisphere. The easterlies enhance the poleward heat transport in both basins. 相似文献
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The response of wind-drift currents to the prevailing summer wind regime is reported for Simpson Lagoon on the Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean) coast of Alaska. Wind and current measurements were taken over the period July 17 to October 20 and August 11 to September 18, 1972, respectively, at a site eastward of the Colville River delta. Mean wind speeds and the frequency of occurrence of westerly storms tend to increase from July to October. Prevailing currents within the lagoon are towards the W to NW driven by the prevailing northeasterly winds. Relatively rapid reversals of current direction occur in response to alternating easterly and westerly winds. Cross correlations of power spectra of the filtered E-W components of the lagoon current record with the concurrent wind data gave a periodicity of 4–5 days at a 70% level of coherence. A linear correlation of −0·83 was obtained between the E-W components of the filtered current record and the wind record, and net water transport (from a progressive current vector analysis) over this period was determined to be towards the WNW with a mean vector velocity of 10·6 cm/sec. 相似文献
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1 IntroductionThe South Indian Ocean is the only way which must be passed in marine traffic among Africa, Asia and Oceania. With the development of the international traffic, it becomes more and more frequent to navigate over the South Indian Ocean. More and more hydrometeorological safeguards especially the safeguards of important cruise lines are required. However, data for the region in China is absent except the Indian Ocean Climate Atlas (1973)[1] which has short fixed number of… 相似文献
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By means of the proposed nonlinear diagnostic dynamic model for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind field, an introduction is given to the MOD method for wind prediction. Based on the MOD experiments on the surface wind field over the Northern Pacific Ocean from April to October 1985, it is concluded that the nonlinear diagnostic dynamic model used is better than the linear one. 相似文献
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E. A. Sharkov G. A. Kim I. V. Pokrovskaya 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2011,47(9):1084-1091
Energy features of the succession of interrelated tropical cyclones (plural cyclogenesis) in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere
(the southern part of the Indian Ocean and the southwestern part of the Pacific Ocean) over February 2008 are comprehensively
analyzed on the basis of the method of combining different-scale data of the infrared and radio thermal satellite sounding.
The data of infrared thermal channels of the geostationary Meteosat-7 satellite and the results of reconstruction of integral
water vapor from data of the AMSR-E microwave complex of the Aqua satellite were used. The analysis showed that the region
where water vapor has an increased integral concentration is the most effective channel for pumping the latent heat energy
from the tropics into midlatitudes. Each cyclone captures this region from the tropical zone and retains it throughout the
entire stage of its own evolution with the aid of the jet spiral bridge. The quantitative estimates of the latent energy of
the central equatorial region of water vapor in the intratropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of the Indian and Pacific oceans
were a basically new result, as well as the detection of considerable time variations in the latent heat associated with the
ejection of coherent water-vapor regions into high latitudes by plural cyclogenesis. 相似文献
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2020年秋季(9—11月)大气环流特征表现为,北半球极涡呈单极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型。9—11月,欧亚大陆中高纬环流经向度不断加大,冷空气势力增强。西太平洋副热带高压较历史平均偏强,热带气旋活动频繁。我国近海出现了19次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程6次,台风大风过程4次,入海气旋大风过程1次,冷空气与热带气旋共同影响的大风过程7次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程1次。西北太平洋和南海共生成13个热带气旋,其中10月共有7个热带气旋生成,追平10月热带气旋生成数的历史最高纪录;全球其他海域共生成热带气旋26个。我国近海未出现2 m以上大浪过程的天数仅有12 d,约占秋季总日数的13%。秋季,我国近海海域呈明显降温过程,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域,受连续北上影响我国北部海域的热带气旋活动影响,9月黄海东部及东海东部的海面温度较气候态明显偏低。 相似文献
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The change of sea surface temperature(SST) in the southern Indian Ocean(SIO) during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode(SAM). 相似文献