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在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km2)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。 相似文献
3.
Impacts of regional warming on long‐term hypolimnetic anoxia and dissolved oxygen concentration in a deep lake 
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下载免费PDF全文 Although few reports have described long‐term continuous anoxia in aquatic systems, Lake Ikeda in Japan experienced such conditions in the hypolimnion from 1990 to 2010. The present study aimed to assess temporal fluctuations in the lake's thermal stability from 1978 to 2011 to understand the influence of regional climate change on hypolimnetic anoxia in this lake. Because complete vertical mixing, which supplies dissolved oxygen (DO) to the hypolimnion, potentially occurs on February, we calculated the Schmidt stability index (S) in February and compared it with hypolimnetic DO dynamics. Vertical water temperature profiles were calculated using a one‐dimensional model, and calculated temperatures and meteorological data were used to analyse annual fluctuations in water temperatures, thermocline depth, meteorological variables and S. We estimated that mean annual air and volume‐weighted water temperatures increased by 0.028 and 0.033 °C year?1, respectively, from 1978 to 2011. Between 1986 and 1990, S and water temperature increased abruptly, probably due to a large upwards trend in air temperature (+0.239 °C year?1). We hypothesize that a mixing regime that lacked overturn took effect at this time and that this regime lasted until 2011, when S was particularly small. These results demonstrate that abrupt climate warming in the late 1980s likely triggered the termination of complete mixing and caused the 21‐year period of successive anoxia in Lake Ikeda. We conclude that the lake response to a rapid shift in regional climate conditions was a key factor in changing the hypolimnetic water environment and that thermal stability in winter is a critical environmental factor controlling the mixing regime and anoxic conditions in deep lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Jayantha Obeysekera Michelle Irizarry Joseph Park Jenifer Barnes Tibebe Dessalegne 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):495-516
Recent climate change projections suggest that negative impacts on flood control and water supply functions and on existing
and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida are possible. An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature
data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the
more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical
data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes
in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence
and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from
shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in
response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic
and water management model is conducted. Model results suggest that projected climate change has potential to reduce the effectiveness
of water supply and flood control operations for all water sectors. These findings emphasize that questions on the potential
impacts of climate change need to be investigated with particular attention paid to the uncertainties of such projections. 相似文献
5.
In a recent intercomparison of the response of general circulation models (GCMs) to high-latitude freshwater forcing (Stouffer
et al., J Climate 19(8):1365–1387, 2006), a number of the GCMs investigated showed a localised warming response in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as opposed to
the cooling that the other models showed. We investigated the causes for this warming by testing the sensitivity of the meridional
overturning circulation (MOC) to variations in freshwater forcing location, and then analysing in detail the causes of the
warming. By analysing results from experiments with HadCM3, we are able to show that the high-latitude warming is independent
of the exact location of the additional freshwater in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean basin. Instead, the addition of freshwater
changes the circulation in the sub-polar gyre, which leads to enhanced advection of warm, saline, sub-surface water into the
Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Sea despite the overall slowdown of the MOC. This sub-surface water is brought to the surface
by convection, where it leads to a strong warming of the surface waters and the overlying atmosphere. 相似文献
6.
Global warming can potentially lead to changes in future rainfall and runoff and can significantly impact the regional hydrology and future availability of water resources. All the large‐scale climate impact studies use the future climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the impact on future water availability. This paper presents results from a detailed assessment to investigate the capability of 15 GCMs to reproduce the observed historical annual and seasonal mean rainfalls, the observed annual rainfall series and the observed daily rainfall distribution across south‐east Australia. The assessment shows that the GCMs can generally reproduce the spatial patterns of mean seasonal and annual rainfalls. However, there can be considerable differences between the mean rainfalls simulated by the GCMs and the observed rainfall. The results clearly show that none of the GCMs can simulate the actual annual rainfall time series or the trend in the annual rainfall. The GCMs can also generally reproduce the observed daily (ranked) rainfall distribution at the GCM scale. The GCMs are ranked against their abilities to reproduce the observed historical mean annual rainfall and daily rainfall distribution, and, based on the combined score, the better GCMs include MPI‐ECHAM5, MIUB, CCCMA_T47, INMCM, CSIRO‐MK3·0, CNRM, CCCMA_T63 and GFDL 2·0 and those with poorer performances are MRI, IPSL, GISS‐AOM, MIROC‐M, NCAR‐PCM1, IAP and NCAR‐CCSM. However, the reduction in the combined score as we move from the best‐ to the worst‐performing GCMs is gradual, and there is no evident cut‐off point or threshold to remove GCMs from climate impact studies. There is some agreement between the results here and many similar studies comparing the performance of GCMs in Australia, but the results are not always consistent and do significantly disagree with several of the studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Kalvová Jaroslava Halenka Tomáš Bezpalcová Klára Nemešová Ivana 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(1):185-202
The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller. 相似文献
8.
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios
for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and
trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we
examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained
from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful
indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling
to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute
to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability.
The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend
measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends
for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and
accompanied mid-depth warming trend. 相似文献
9.
Abiotic effects of UV on planktonic P kinetics 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jeff M. Sereda Jeff J. Hudson William D. Taylor 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2009,71(2):127-134
10.
Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed 总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6
Muhammad Zia Hashmi Asaad Y. Shamseldin Bruce W. Melville 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):475-484
Future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are usually used for developing
climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the existing GCMs have only limited ability to simulate the
complex and local climate features, such as precipitation. Furthermore, the outputs provided by GCMs are too coarse to be
useful in hydrologic impact assessment models, as these models require information at much finer scales. Therefore, downscaling
of GCM outputs is usually employed to provide fine-resolution information required for impact models. Among the downscaling
techniques based on statistical principles, multiple regression and weather generator are considered to be more popular, as
they are computationally less demanding than the other downscaling techniques. In the present study, the performances of a
multiple regression model (called SDSM) and a weather generator (called LARS-WG) are evaluated in terms of their ability to
simulate the frequency of extreme precipitation events of current climate and downscaling of future extreme events. Areal
average daily precipitation data of the Clutha watershed located in South Island, New Zealand, are used as baseline data in
the analysis. Precipitation frequency analysis is performed by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to
the observed, the SDSM simulated/downscaled, and the LARS-WG simulated/downscaled annual maximum (AM) series. The computations
are performed for five return periods: 10-, 20-, 40-, 50- and 100-year. The present results illustrate that both models have
similar and good ability to simulate the extreme precipitation events and, thus, can be adopted with confidence for climate
change impact studies of this nature. 相似文献
11.
Climate-driven shifts in diatom assemblages recorded in annually laminated sediments of Sacrower See (NE Germany) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
E. P. Kirilova O. Heiri P. Bluszcz B. Zolitschka A. F. Lotter 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2011,73(2):201-210
Sacrower See is a eutrophic lake with annually laminated sediments extending back to A.D. 1868. Analysis of annual layers
revealed multi-decadal periods of distinct diatom assemblages at A.D. 1868–1875, 1876–1940, 1941–1978, and 1979–2000. Detrended
correspondence analysis performed on individual seasonal sediment layers showed decadal-scale patterns of turnover in the
diatom flora. The spring–summer layers showed higher sample scores until the early 1960s, after which the differences with
the autumn–winter layers became smaller. Rates-of-change analysis revealed that the seasonal variability in diatom assemblages
was higher than the annual changes. Summer diatom rates of change over the period A.D. 1894–1960 was on average higher than
for winter, whereas between the 1960s and 1970s the winter rates of change became higher than the summer ones. Redundancy
Analyses showed that seasonal temperatures and wind strength were significant explanatory variables for diatom assemblages
in both annual and seasonal layers. These results suggest that meteorological changes indirectly affected diatom assemblages
via the mixing regime of the lake. A comparison of the diatom rates of change with the amplitude of inter-annual climate change
shows a statistically significant correlation for the spring-summer layers in the period of A.D. 1963–2000, showing that the
sensitivity of diatom assemblages to meteorological changes has varied over the past century, with a stronger effect on diatoms
registered during the past 40 years. 相似文献
12.
Climate warming alters thermal stability but not stratification phenology in a small north‐temperate lake 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A. M. Paterson E. A. Stainsby N. Michelutti H. Yao J. A. Rusak R. Ingram C. McConnell J. P. Smol 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6309-6319
Recent climate change represents one of the most serious anthropogenic threats to lake ecosystems in Canada. As meteorological and hydrological conditions are altered by climate change, so too are physical, chemical and biological properties of lakes. The ability to quantify the impact of climate change on the physical properties of lakes represents an integral step in estimating future chemical and biological change. To that end, we have used the dynamic reservoir simulation model, a one‐dimensional vertical heat transfer and mixing model, to hindcast and compare lake temperature‐depth profiles against 30 years of long‐term monitoring data in Harp Lake, Ontario. These temperature profiles were used to calculate annual (June–September) thermal stability values from 1979 to 2009. Comparisons between measured and modelled lake water temperature and thermal stability over three decades showed strong correlation (r2 > 0.9). However, despite significant increases in modelled thermal stability over the 30 year record, we found no significant change in the timing of the onset, breakdown or the duration of thermal stratification. Our data suggest that increased air temperature and decreased wind are the primary drivers of enhanced stability in Harp Lake since 1979. The high‐predictive ability of the Harp Lake dynamic reservoir simulation model suggests that its use as a tool in future lake management projects is appropriate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Environmental characteristics of Mid-Holocene recorded by lacustrine sediments from Lake Daihai, north environment sensitive zone, China 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
One of the goals for paleaoenvironmental research is to predict the tendency of future climate and environmental changes based on the understanding of the past. The key approach is to find similar pictures which happened in the past. By understanding the background and mechanism of the paleaoenvironmen- tal changes, reliable parameters and verifications can be provided for the numerical model to predict the tendency of future climate and environmental changes. The Mid-Holocene as the nearest … 相似文献
14.
Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment inputs of the largest freshwater lake in China,Poyang Lake 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test were employed to examine the change trends and shifts of runoff and sediment input to Poyang Lake between 1961 and 2013. Water balance and linear regression models were used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results showed that runoff inputs to the lake had insignificant temporal trends and change points, while sediment inputs had significant decreasing trends, with an abrupt change in 1989. Quantitative assessment demonstrated that human activities led to a small decrease (5.5%) in runoff inputs to the lake, and a dramatic (121.4%) decrease in sediment inputs to the lake between the reference period (before the change point) and the human-influenced period (after the change point). This work provides a useful reference for future policy makers in water resource utilization and environmental safety of the Poyang Lake basin. 相似文献
15.
Diatom assemblages and quantitative reconstruction for paleosalinity from a sediment core of Chencuo Lake,southern Tibet 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Changing salinity in lakes and especially in closed lakes depends mainly on the balance between precipitation, runoff and evaporation in arid and semi-arid areas, hence influencing lake levels di-rectly[1-4]. Past salinity has been recovered by a vari-ety of environmental indicators from lake sediments such as diatoms, chironomids, ostracoda, isotopes of ostracoda shells, geochemistry, and isotopes of authi-cabonates[3,5—10]. Recently, with extensive data-base study on diatom-salinity transfe… 相似文献
16.
湖北长湖富营养化状况及时空变化(2012-2013年) 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
为评估长湖水体富营养化程度,2012-2013年分4个季度对全湖区20个采样点的物理、化学和生物要素进行监测,在评价水质现状的基础上采用综合营养状况指数法和浮游植物细胞丰度指数法综合评价水体营养状况,并应用典型相关分析(CCA)方法揭示水体富营养化状况与湖泊理化要素之间的典型相关性.结果显示:4个季节长湖全湖区的水质均处于地表水IV类~劣V类水标准;综合营养状态指数值在49.54~82.55之间,浮游植物细胞丰度在2.88×106~61.73×106cells/L之间,均显示其处于富营养化状态;长湖富营养化状况的分布呈现一定的时空差异性;CCA分析显示,长湖理化要素变量可解释68.6%的水体富营养化状况变量的变异,影响其富营养化状况的主要理化因素有水体总磷、总氮、溶解氧、亚硝态氮、硝态氮浓度,水深和沉积物总磷、总氮含量.长湖水体富营养化主要是由于外源的磷污染,其次是氮污染,富营养化最严重的夏、秋季浮游植物的生长主要受氮营养限制,而冬、春季则部分受磷营养限制,部分属于过渡类型.因此,建议大力削减围网/围栏养殖量,同时考虑结合水生植物栽种等生态工程建设措施以降低长湖水体发生严重富营养化的风险,并进一步改善长湖的水质现状. 相似文献
17.
Sujeewa Malwila Herath Priyantha Ranjan Sarukkalige Van Thanh Van Nguyen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):2061-2070
ABSTRACTDownscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae 相似文献
18.
Lakes are a prominent geographic feature in northern landscapes and play an important role in understanding regional climate systems. In order to better model changes within climate systems, it is important to study lake ice processes. Although the availability of records for lake ice through ground measurements has declined in recent years, the increased use of remote sensing provides an alternative to this. Using a preclassified snow and ice remote sensing product with a 500‐m resolution, based on images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS/MOD10A1), and the use of measured and reanalysis temperature data, this study evaluated lake ice phenology dates in connection to recent trends in temperature and 0 °C isotherms within Ontario and Manitoba between 2001 and 2014. Temperature trends indicated both regional warming and cooling, with significant cooling observed in Southern Ontario (p < .05) and significant warming in Southern Manitoba (p < .1) during the fall. Spatial analysis of the trends in the lake ice data showed significant clustering of significant trends in ice on dates (p < .01). When analysing the trends in ice phenology in connection to the trends in temperature, it was found that 70% of lakes experienced a change in the ice on date with the expected change in temperature and 85% of lakes for ice off date. When shifting ice on and ice off dates are investigated in relation to 0 °C isotherms, it was seen that 80% of ice on dates and 100% of ice off dates shifted in sync with the isotherm dates. This demonstrates that the ice phenology of lakes in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada, is responding to short‐term variability in temperature. The MODIS product could be used to investigate ice phenology on a large scale and contribute towards expanding existing records of ice phenology. Establishing long‐term ice records could be a valuable asset for other research ranging from water balance studies to the response of lake biota under changing climate. 相似文献
19.
Joseph D. Conroy Leon Boegman Hongyan Zhang William J. Edwards David A. Culver 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2011,73(2):289-304
Calculated hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (HOD) rates depend not only on environmental factors but also logistical ones. In
particular, lack of understanding of the effects of weather in addition to how sampling effort determines calculated HOD rates
complicates ecological understanding and environmental management of lake ecosystems. To better determine the roles of weather
and sampling effort, we combined (1) weekly measurements of temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations from seven
stations in the Sandusky subbasin of Lake Erie’s central basin during 2005, (2) contemporaneous measures of storm activity
and tributary discharge, and (3) a two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic, chemical, and biological model of Lake Erie to investigate
(1) how increased storm activity and tributary discharge affected short- (daily) and long-term (seasonal) dynamics of hypolimnetic
hypoxia, and (2) how spatial (number of sites sampled) and temporal (sampling frequency) sampling effort affected calculated
HOD rates. Our model closely replicated field-observed DO dynamics. When comparing baseline modeled dynamics to those in a
second simulation with twice the number of days with high winds, however, we found that with more storm activity (1) periods
of entrainment became more frequent, (2) the hypolimnion was warmer, (3) thermal stratification occurred 1 month later, whereas
autumnal turnover occurred at least 1 week earlier shortening the duration of stratification by 1–2 months, and (4) HOD rates
increased 12%. Further, spatial and temporal sampling intensity also affected calculated HOD rates. Consequently, adequately
quantifying actual HOD rates requires sufficient sampling effort and the particular role of weather should be assessed with
rigorous field and simulation studies, especially if HOD rates are used to indicate management success. 相似文献
20.
Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
General circulation models (GCMs), the climate models often used in assessing the impact of climate change, operate on a coarse scale and thus the simulation results obtained from GCMs are not particularly useful in a comparatively smaller river basin scale hydrology. The article presents a methodology of statistical downscaling based on sparse Bayesian learning and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to model streamflow at river basin scale for monsoon period (June, July, August, September) using GCM simulated climatic variables. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been used for training the model to establish a statistical relationship between streamflow and climatic variables. The relationship thus obtained is used to project the future streamflow from GCM simulations. The statistical methodology involves principal component analysis, fuzzy clustering and RVM. Different kernel functions are used for comparison purpose. The model is applied to Mahanadi river basin in India. The results obtained using RVM are compared with those of state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine (SVM) to present the advantages of RVMs over SVMs. A decreasing trend is observed for monsoon streamflow of Mahanadi due to high surface warming in future, with the CCSR/NIES GCM and B2 scenario. 相似文献