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1.
G. Muraleedharan Mourani Sinha A. D. Rao N. Unnikrishnan Nair P. G. Kurup 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):165-186
We used field and model wave data to investigate that zero crossing and average wave period distribution follow Gamma distribution.
Since Gamma CDF is an infinite power series, further mathematical treatment is difficult. Hence its shape parameter is approximated
to the nearest integer to arrive at Erlang distribution. An expression is derived from Erlang distribution to estimate various
mean wave periods and significant wave period and validated by relative root mean square (RRMS) error criteria. It is shown
by mathematical logic that the significant wave period distribution follows Erlang (or Gamma) distribution and is validated.
The average of one-third and one-tenth highest wave periods (T
s
) estimated from Erlang distribution are in accordance with the values computed from recorded buoy and numerical coastal wave
model wave period data. The predicted T
s
values from coastal wave model wave period data underestimates the values from buoy wave period data. 相似文献
2.
The cyclone wave parameters are predicted using Young’s parametric hurricane wave prediction model. The input cyclone tracks
for this work are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center, USA. Extreme value analysis is carried out
to obtain the wave heights and periods for 1 in 5, 10, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. The deep-water hindcast
wave corresponding to 100 years from probable directions are allowed to propagate to Visakhapatnam coastal waters using nearshore
spectral wind-wave mode. The offshore wave height for one in 100-year return period is 11.9 m, and the corresponding nearshore
wave height at 10-m water depth varies between 4.6 and 5.6 m depending on the directional spreading. Weibull distribution
is chosen to fit the 24 cyclonic data sets over a total period of 30 years (September 1972 to November 2002). This paper demonstrates
usefulness of Young’s wave model for deep-water extreme wave hindcasting. Further, the results of the present study would
be highly useful for assessing the design wave height for Visakhapatnam coast. 相似文献
3.
The modified Weibull spectrum is utilized to calculate the zeroth spectral moment (mo) using Monte Carlo integration methods. Then significant wave height (Hs) is calculated using the formula This is validated with observed buoy data and numerical wave model (WAM) predicted significant wave heights. The Weibull
parameters have been calculated using energy densities from observed spectra recorded by DS5 buoy (13.80° N, 82.52° E, depth
3355.48 m) by the method of maximum likelihood (MLE).The relative root mean square error (RRMS) and relative bias error criteria
show that modified Weibull spectrum estimated significant wave heights are better than those predicted by WAM model. The monthly
averaged observed wave power spectra for the year 2005 recorded by deep water buoy DS5 is considered in this work. The spectra
exhibit bimodal sea states for several months of the year. 相似文献
4.
Spectral and statistical wave parameters obtained from the measured time series wave data off Paradip, east coast of India
during May 1996–January 1997 were analysed along with MIKE 21 spectral wave model (SW) results. Statistical wave parameters
and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon,
fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single
peaked, and the maximum energy distribution is in a narrow frequency band with an average directional spreading of 20°. Spectra
for other seasons are multi-peaked, and energy is distributed over a wide range of frequencies and directions. The NCEP re-analysis
winds were used in the model, and the results clearly bring out the wave features during depressions. The simulated wave parameters
reasonably show good match with the measurements. For example, the correlation coefficient between the measured and modelled
significant wave height is 0.87 and the bias −0.25. 相似文献
5.
High precision design wave height is required in extreme marine environments in typhoon-affected sea areas. A new model is built under typhoon effect to calculate the design wave heights. The new model has multiple undetermined parameters, and it is able to fit observed data more flexibly and accurately. In addition, the distribution functions of this new model are based on the maximum entropy principle. Therefore, they can avoid the apriority, which means arbitrarily assigning Poisson distribution to describe the distribution of typhoon occurrence frequency and assigning Gumbel distribution or Pearson-III distribution to describe the distribution of extreme events in the process of applying the compound distribution to deduce the design elevations. The observed data of 18-year (1984–2001) extreme wave heights and the corresponding typhoon events in Maidao are used to test the model. Test results show that the new model is theoretically more stable and more precise when predicting the design wave heights under the typhoon-affected sea areas. 相似文献
6.
Javier Lario Chris Spencer Teresa Bardají Ángel Marchante Victor H. Garduño-monroy Jorge Macias Sergio Ortega 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1481-1504
The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region with little significant seismic activity. The region though, is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca 100 km of the eastern Yucatán and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing individual boulders measuring >1 m in length. The boulder ridges reach 5 m in height and their origin is associated with extreme wave event activity. Previously modelled tsunami waves from known seismically active zones in the region (Muertos Thrust Belt and South Caribbean Deformed Belt) are not of sufficient scale in the area of the Yucatán Peninsula to have produced the boulder ridges recorded in this study. The occurrence of hurricanes in this region is more common, but two of the most destructive (Hurricane Gilbert 1988 and Hurricane Wilma 2005) produced coastal waves too small to have created the ridges recorded here. In this paper, a new tsunami model with a source area located on the Motagua/Swan Island Fault System has been generated that indicates a tsunami event may have caused the extreme wave events that resulted in the deposition of the boulder ridges. 相似文献
7.
8.
Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years
return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel) and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa, Visakhapatnam
and Machilipatnam) in the north Indian Ocean. The wind dataset for Goa is compared with that from ERA-40 data. For higher
wind speeds (12–20m s−1), NCEP wind speed has higher percentage of occurrence than that of ERA-40. Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the
annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with an increase of 1.2 cm s−1 per year and a decreasing trend of −1.3 cm s−1 per year in the case of Goa. The Weibull distribution with shape parameter 2 fits the annual maximum wind data better than
FT-1 distribution. 相似文献
9.
Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence.
The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis.
Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the
Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco
and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling
results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been
sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas
like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that
attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico 相似文献
10.
Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Carlos Escalante-Sandoval 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):37-46
In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods
is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account
with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods.
In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed
for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method
is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site
quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters
are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important
to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations. 相似文献
11.
Raj Kumar Suchandra A. Bhowmick Sulagna Ray Vihang Bhatt Suhe Surendran Sujit Basu Abhijit Sarkar Vijay K. Agarwal 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):275-291
Accurate prediction of ocean surface waves is a challenging task with many associated difficulties. Availability of good quality
wind and wave information from satellite platforms inspired the scientific community to assimilate such data in various spectral
wave models for enhancing the accuracy of prediction. Over the Indian Ocean, which is the region of interest for the present
study, wave heights in extreme situation can go up to 12–14 m, thereby increasing the probability of coastal hazards. This
region is further governed by the southern ocean swells that propagate thousands of kilometers. These are, in general, not
well captured by the spectral wave models. Therefore, assimilation of altimeter data in open ocean wave model WAM has been
attempted with the aim of enhancing the quality of prediction of significant wave height. Further, simulated wave spectra
have been assimilated in a coastal wave model SWAN. This assimilation has been found to significantly improve the prediction
of the height of wind waves as well as swell waves.
V. Bhatt and S. Surendran are former students of Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad. 相似文献
12.
考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义. 相似文献
13.
REE studies of apatites in two series of granites, including more than ten types of rock and several tens of rock masses in
eight provinces of South China permit us to come to some new understanding and hence the following conclusions have been drawn.
Apatites in granites of different series show significant differences in REE distribution pattern, probably due to different
material sources. Therefore, REE partition characteristics can be used to discriminate granites of different sources. Apatite
in granite of the Nanling series (of shallow-seated source) has a lower content ofΣ REE (4571 ppm on average). Y is the highest of the REE group.Σ Y is rich relative toΣ Ce, thus giving rise to relatively lowΣCe/ΣY ratio (0.68 on average). Eu shows strong depletion, andδ Eu is extremely low (0.135 on average). The REE distribution patterns are represented by a group of “V”-shaped symmetric
curves. Apatite in granites of the Yangtze series are relatively high inΣ REE (8571.3 ppm on average). Ce is the highest of the REE. group.Σ Ce is rich relative toΣ Y and theΣCe/ΣY is relatively high (7.15 on average). The chondrite-normalized REE distribution patterns are characterized by a group of
rightward-inclined curves. 相似文献
14.
The classical extreme value theory based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is applied to the wave height estimate based on wave hindcast data covering a period of 31?years for a location in the eastern Arabian Sea. Practical concern such as the threshold selection and model validation is discussed. Estimates of wave height having different return periods are compared with estimates obtained from different distributions. On comparing the distributions fitted to the GEV with annual maximum approach and GPD with peaks over threshold approach have indicated that both GEV and GPD models gave similar or comparable wave height for the study area since there is no multiple storm event in a year. Influence of seasonality on wave height having different return period is also studied. 相似文献
15.
Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile. 相似文献
16.
We have simulated the return echo of a satellite altimeter from a rough ocean surface using an analytical formula and have
studied its sensitivity with respect to various oceanic and altimeter parameters. Our numerical experiment shows that for
normally observed significant wave heights (SWH) the effect of off-nadir angle (ONA) up to 0.5° on the leading edge is not
severe. Also, small surface roughness skewness seems to have little effect on the overall shape of the echo.
Newton’s iterative scheme has been used to retrieve SWH from the mean return waveform without noise and with additive Gaussian
noise typical of Seasat and Geosat altimeters. It has been observed that SWH can be retrieved in the presence of noise with
an accuracy of ±0.6 m for ONA less than 0.5°. For higher ONA, accurate retrieval requires the use of precomputed look-up table
along with our scheme. 相似文献
17.
This paper introduces four kinds of novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions based on bivariate normal copula, Gumbel–Hougaard copula, Clayton copula and Frank copula. These joint distributions consist of two marginal univariate maximum entropy distributions. Four types of Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions are developed, based on the occurrence frequency of typhoons, on these novel bivariate maximum entropy distributions and on bivariate compound extreme value theory. Groups of disaster-induced typhoon processes since 1949–2001 in Qingdao area are selected, and the joint distribution of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height in the same typhoon processes are established using the above Poisson bivariate compound maximum entropy distributions. The results show that all these four distributions are good enough to fit the original data. A novel grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges intensity is established based on the joint return period of extreme water level and corresponding significant wave height, and the disaster-induced typhoons in Qingdao verify this grade criterion. 相似文献
18.
With the rapid expansion of the scale of deep sea net-cage use in the nearshore area of Hainan Island, tropical cyclone-induced wave hazard assessment is urgently needed. In this study, the wind-wave-current coupled ADCIRC?+?SWAN model, which considers the effects of tidal and storm surges, was used to simulate tropical cyclone events over the last 33 years. This model adopts an unstructured high-resolution grid with a nearshore resolution of up to 100 m. The compared simulated results and observations during typhoons JEBI (2013), HAIYAN (2013) and KALMAEGI (2014) were in agreement. This study statistically analyzed maximum significant wave heights on the basis of a large set of simulated storm wave level maps to derive the wave heights of different return periods. Then, the results of nearshore wave hazard classification were obtained by applying the affinity propagation (AP) clustering method to dozens of nearshore profiles. The results demonstrate that the risk at any point in the nearshore area of Hainan Island is dominated by the wave hazard type and water depth condition. The wave hazard assessment method developed for Hainan Island will be significant in assisting government decision-making in the rational planning of deep sea net-cage aquaculture.
相似文献19.
A model treating a solar coronal hole as an axially symmetrical magnetic formation that is in equilibrium with the surrounding
medium is proposed. The model is applicable in the lower corona (to heights of the order of several hundreds of Mm), where
the influence of the solar-wind outflow on the state of the system can still be neglected. The magnetic field of the coronal
hole is comprised of a relatively weak open flux that varies with height, which extends into interplanetary space, and a closed
field, whose flux closes at the chromosphere near the coronal hole. Simple analytical formulas are obtained, which demonstrate
for a given equilibrium configuration of the plasma and field the main effect of interest—the lowering of the temperature
and density of the gas in the coronal hole compared to their values in the corona at the same geometric height. In particular,
it is shown that, at heights of several tens of Mm, the temperature and density of the plasma in the coronal hole are roughly
half the corresponding values at the same height in the corona, if the cross-sectional radius of the hole exceeds the scale
height in the corona by roughly a factor of 1.5: R
h
≈ 1.5H(T
0). In the special case when R
h
≈ H(T
0), the plasma temperature in the hole is equal to the coronal temperature, and the darkening of the coronal hole is due only
to an appreciable reduction of the plasma density in the hole, compared to the coronal density. An analogy of the properties
of coronal holes and sunspots is discussed, based on the similarity of the magnetic structures of these formations. In spite
of the fundamental difference in the mechanisms for energy transport in coronal holes and sunspots, the equilibrium distributions
of the plasma parameters in these formations are determined only by the magnetic and gravitational forces, giving rise to
a number of common properties, due to their similar magnetic structures. 相似文献
20.
波浪增水抬升了岸礁礁坪的平均水位,对岸礁后方陆域安全有重要影响。通过水槽试验,研究了不规则波况下岸礁礁坪的增水。试验组次为3种礁坪水深、4种有效波高和4种谱峰周期的组合。试验结果表明:①岸礁地形上的波浪要素需至少统计200个波才能达到稳定;②不规则波列在岸礁上破碎过程比规则波列复杂,同一波列中波高较大的波以卷破形式在礁前斜坡上破碎,波高较小的波以崩破形式在礁坪上破碎或者不破碎;③礁坪上最大增水值随入射波周期的增大而增大、随礁坪水深的增大而减小,并与入射波波高呈正比。结合试验数据,发现基于规则波试验得出的Gourlay礁坪增水公式,在使用有效波高和谱峰周期作为代表波要素时,公式能良好地预测不规则波在岸礁礁坪上的最大增水值。 相似文献