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1.
以气温升高为主要特征的全球气候变化,致使北极海冰持续融化,北极地区丰富的资源、便捷的航行通道、重要的战略地位以及军事价值逐渐凸显出来。北冰洋沿岸的美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、丹麦和挪威等国家纷纷加入到北极利益争夺的行列中。为模拟和评估环北极国家在利益追逐中的合作与冲突行为的演化,基于博弈论思想,构建了环北极五国博弈的动态争端模型,提出了物质收益、惩罚损失和名誉收益等三个机制,综合考虑了气候变化、物质收益、国家关系与国家威望、国际法律法规等因素对环北极五国行为的综合影响。针对当前环北极各国在北极问题上的合作与争端开展了动态博弈建模,并对北极海冰完全消融情景时环北极各国在多种不同合作模式下的争端情况进行了模拟预估与实验仿真。 相似文献
2.
George W. Wenzel 《Polar research》2009,28(1):89-99
Considerable attention has been devoted to the possible effects of global climate change on the environment of the circumpolar world. With regard to the Inuit, the aboriginal culture of Arctic Canada, research interest has focused principally on the vulnerability of the hunting and harvesting component of the traditional food system, otherwise frequently referred to as the subsistence system, if wild terrestrial and marine resources become less available. Although also concerned with the traditional Inuit food economy, this paper concentrates on the customary institutional mechanisms by which the Inuit distribute and share the products obtained from hunting. After analysing this social economy, a review of the data on recent climate-related range changes of a number of Arctic animal populations is carried out, in terms of how projected environmental changes may affect this other aspect of Inuit subsistence. After tentatively concluding that some species substitution and/or replacement will occur, the final aspect of the paper considers the potential for the possible exclusion of these "replacements" as a result of the political aspect of climate change. 相似文献
3.
Tristan D. Pearce James D. Ford Gita J. Laidler Barry Smit Frank Duerden Mishak Allarut Mark Andrachuk Steven Baryluk rew Dialla Pootoogoo Elee Annie Goose Theo Ikummaq Eric Joamie Fred Kataoyak Eric Loring Stephanie Meakin Scott Nickels Kip Shappa Jamal Shirley & Johanna Wandel 《Polar research》2009,28(1):10-27
Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic. 相似文献
4.
5.
The Global Change Program of the Geological Survey of Canada has chosen three regions as Integrated Research and Monitoring Areas (IRMAs). These are: i) the Palliser IRMA, encompassing the dry prairie region of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba; ii) the Mackenzie IRMA, including the Mackenzie Valley corridor and Beaufort Sea coast; and iii) the High Arctic, where collaborative studies centred on north-central Ellesmere Island have been conducted since 1989. The primary objective in each area is to determine relationships between geomorphic processes and climate in order to help predict the potential geologic impact of global change. Establishment of a detailed paleoclimatic record for each region is essential to provide a context for ongoing climate change. Paleolimnological studies in concert with other proxy methodologies are directed at outlining Holocene climatic variability and are a primary research component in each region. 相似文献
6.
北极地区20世纪温度变化趋势的不确定性 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
北极作为地球的冷源之一,对于地球气候系统起着重要的调节作用.本研究通过分析和总结北极地区器测数据和模拟集成结果,以及最近2 000 a来的温度记录,得出如下结果：1）格陵兰冰盖表层大气温度记录显示,20世纪存在1923—1965年和1994年—至今2个相对温暖时段,且前者更为温暖,温度变化幅度远大于北半球的平均温度.2）北极地区20世纪温度上升是客观存在的,其夏季温度和年平均温度呈现一致变化,未发现明显的温度异常信号.3）定量重建的古气候记录显示了北极地区20世纪升温的特征,但不同记录揭示的升温幅度存在差异.与器测结果不同,多条重建记录未能揭示自1994年至今的升温阶段,反映了古气候载体对气候响应的复杂性,揭示出北极地区未来气候变化趋势存在不确定性.在全球变化备受关注的背景下,北极地区对气候变化研究的重要性日益显现,在做出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度. 相似文献
7.
冰冻圈变化的自然过程影响着国家领土博弈地缘关系的建构。基于人地关系思想,以变化-影响-适应为主线建立气候变化影响下冰冻圈国家领土博弈的研究框架,分析自然因素对冰冻圈地缘结构的塑造和对冰冻圈国家身份-利益的建构,以及极地海权、陆权和其他地区领土博弈所形成的双多边地缘关系。研究结果：① 冰冻圈领土博弈地缘结构初步形成。理念层面,自然要素成为气候政治的力量之一,冰冻圈领土博弈体现出传统地缘逻辑;空间层面,气候变化释放极地、高山等新运筹空间,北极、南极成为大国博弈焦点;物质层面,极地海权和陆权利益是大国博弈的主要目标。② 冰冻圈国家身份-利益影响其冰冻圈地缘政治行为,其身份认同的客观基础之一是在冰冻圈分布结构的相对位置。③ 冰冻圈国家领土博弈地缘关系有“趋利”“避害”两类。“利”指为赢得极地海权、陆权,气候变化下西方大国和地区大国开始争夺南北极200海里外大陆架权属,加强极地实质性“硬、软存在”战略布局,美国和丹麦强化格陵兰岛北极战略支点作用;“害”指冰冻圈灾害引起的跨境气候移民等国家利益受损问题。 相似文献
8.
Terry V. Callaghan Malcolm C. Press John A. Lee David L. Robinson Clive W. Anderson 《Polar research》1999,18(2):191-197
This paper compares the responses of two contrasting Arctic ecosystems to climate change simulations: a polar semi-desert (in Svalbard) and a dwarf shrub heath (at Abisko, northern Sweden). These ecosystems are located close to the northern-and southernmost extremes of the Arctic region, respectively. Inmacts of simulated climatic changes were determined through factorial perturbation experiments, where growing season temperature, nutrient availability and water supply were manipulated. The results are compared with the impact of interannual variation in climate on the growth of a keystone moss species, Hylocomium splendens , from the wider circumpolar area. The perturbation studies revealed that current interannual variability in temperature and the temperate tolerance of many species may exceed predicted changes in mean summer temperature over the next century. Arctic ecosystems differed in their responses to environmental manipulations, with the structure of the dwarf shrub health being affected through shifts in competitive hierarchy, potentially leading to lower biodiversity, and the polar semi-desert being affected through invasion, potentially leading to higher diversity. H. splendens showed negative responses to perturbation at the sub-Arctic site, in contrast to the positive relationship between temperature and growth observed in the natural environment. This apparent discrepancy may result from: (i) artefacts arising from the perturbations, such as lower atmospheric relative humidity; (ii) non-equilibrium responses during the relatively short-term perturbation studies and/or (iii) ecotypic variation in the moss population. Thus, caution should be employed when extrapolating from perturbations studies to both longer time-scales and different ecosystems within the Arctic. 相似文献
9.
Julie Brigham-Grette Martin Melles Pavel Minyuk Scientific Party 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,37(1):1-16
Sediment piston cores from Lake El’gygytgyn (67°N, 172°E), a 3.6 million year old meteorite impact crater in northeastern
Siberia, have been analyzed to extract a multi-proxy millennial-scale climate record extending to nearly 250 ka, with distinct
fluctuations in sedimentological, physical, biochemical, and paleoecological parameters. Five major themes emerge from this
research. First the pilot cores and seismic data show that El’gygytygn Crater Lake contains what is expected to be the longest,
most continuous terrestrial record of past climate change in the entire Arctic back to the time of impact. Second, processes
operating in the El’gygytygn basin lead to changes in the limnogeology and the biogeochemistry that reflect robust changes
in the regional climate and paleoecology over a large part of the western Arctic. Third, the magnetic susceptibility and other
proxies record numerous rapid change events. The recovered lake sediment contains both the best-resolved record of the last
interglacial and the longest terrestrial record of millennial scale climate change in the Arctic, yielding a high fidelity
multi-proxy record extending nearly 150,000 years beyond what has been obtained from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Fourth, the
potential for evaluating teleconnections under different mean climate states is high. Despite the heterogeneous nature of
recent Arctic climate change, millennial scale climate events in the North Atlantic/Greenland region are recorded in the most
distal regions of the Arctic under variable boundary conditions. Finally, deep drilling of the complete depositional record
in Lake El’gygytgyn will offer new insights and, perhaps, surprises into the late Cenozoic evolution of Arctic climate.
This is the first in a series of eleven papers published in
this special issue dedicated to initial studies of El'gygytgyn
Crater Lake and its catchment in NE Russia. Julie Brigham-Grette, Martin Melles, Pavel Minyuk were guest
editors of this special issue. 相似文献
10.
Glen MacDonald Benjamin Felzer Bruce Finney Steven Forman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2000,24(1):1-13
Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic. 相似文献
11.
近几十年来气候变化越发严峻,对北极渔业资源产生极大的影响。气候变化引发的海水升温、海平面上升和海冰缩减等改变,不仅直接影响北极渔业资源的种类习性及时空分布,而且通过对洋流、北极涛动、臭氧层等的影响间接地影响北极渔业资源的格局。气候变化对北极渔业资源的结构和数量有着不可逆转的影响,且影响范围广。本文通过对影响北极渔业资源的重大气候变化进行分析研究,找出气候变化影响北极渔业资源的主要因素,从而为应对气候变化,保护北极渔业资源提供基础,以便有效地、科学地并全面地确保北极渔业的可持续发展。 相似文献
12.
Climate change in the Arctic: current and future vulnerability in two Inuit communities in Canada 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
JAMES D FORD BARRY SMIT† JOHANNA WANDEL† MISHAK ALLURUT‡ KIK SHAPPA‡ HARRY ITTUSARJUAT§ KEVIN QRUNNUT§ 《The Geographical journal》2008,174(1):45-62
Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. 相似文献
13.
近400年来北极地区和中国气温变化的对比研究 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
对中国和北极地区近400年来的气温变化进行了趋势分析和谱特征分析,通过对比认为,北极地区及中国基本上都有17世纪、19世纪两个寒冷期和18世纪、20世纪两个温暖期,在一定程度上说明了气候变化的全球性,但两地区气温的冷暖转化不同步。中国大部分地区(除华东、新疆、西藏区外)17、19世纪升温开始得较北极早;北极地区绝大部分站点18世纪升温较中国明显,且气温变化的区域差异较大。400aBP以来两地气温变化的周期较为一致,以130～140年、100年、80年的周期为主,说明400aBP以来气温的变化具有全球性,而且气温的变化受太阳活动的影响较大,自然因素尤其是太阳活动的影响是气候变化的主要原因。 相似文献
14.
在过去30年间,北极气候发生了前所未有的异常变化,北极海冰变化更是经历了令人瞩目的、从平缓到突变的缩减过程,因此,北冰洋及其海冰的研究得到广泛的重视。综述当前国内外有关北极海冰快速变化的研究工作,对这些大气的现场观测和卫星遥感资料的分析,以及一些全球和区域气候模拟的结果,基本上一致地指出了近3O年来北极海冰的快速衰减趋势,尤其是夏季北极海冰正以每lO年超过10％的变化幅度快速减少。从海冰的基本物理特征、与大气海洋相互作用的物理过程、及其对全球和北极气候变化的响应和反馈机制,研究形成这种快速变化的因子--海表面气温增暖,太平洋与大西洋人流的热盐性质变化,以及大气环流模态的影响等。 相似文献
15.
Eric F. Lambin Sarah Ann Lise D’haen Ole Mertz Jonas Østergaard Nielsen Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83
In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization. 相似文献
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Non-climate variables shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. Here, we describe how recent environmental and socio-economic developments have transformed reindeer herding and perceptions of weather on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The reindeer industry has shrunk considerably since the early 1990s, when the winter range of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd expanded, and over 17 000 reindeer mixed with migrating caribou and left the region. Socio-economic and environmental repercussions make the continuation of herding tenuous, and erode the ability of herders to cope with weather variability, among other perturbations. We present a case study of one herder's annual cycle, and juxtapose physical drivers of herding activities, including weather-station and herder observations of local weather variability, with socio-economic factors. There is an increased urgency to access and monitor reindeer with caribou present, but herding plans are constrained by lower economic returns and the need to spend more time in non-herding jobs. Although weather is a greater concern now for immediate herd access, standard weather data are largely irrelevant to the mechanics of herding, whereas variables pertaining to the timing of biotic events (e.g., synchrony of spring break-up and calving) and visibility are attributed to lost herding opportunities. Short-term responses to weather conditions stem from more long-term vulnerability associated with caribou presence, reduced herd size, difficulties affording snowmobile maintenance or crew assistance, and dwindling market opportunities. We emphasize the environmental and socio-economic interactions that affect vulnerability and adaptive capacity for modern herding. 相似文献
18.
Rapid 20th century environmental change on northeastern Baffin Island,Arctic Canada inferred from a multi-proxy lacustrine record 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
The Arctic has a disproportionately large response to changes in radiative forcing of climate, and arctic lacustrine ecosystems
respond sensitively to these changes. The goal of this research is to generate high-resolution climate records for the past
two millennia using multiple proxies in order to place 20th and 21st century climate and environmental change into a long-term
context. We use a 14C- and 210Pb-dated surface core from Lake CF8 on northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a high-resolution multiproxy
reconstruction of climate and environmental change. Throughout the late Holocene, primary productivity in Lake CF8 was low,
but increased almost 20-fold in the past 200 years. Insect (Chironomidae) assemblages also show dramatic changes since 1950
AD, with cold stenothermous chironomid taxa disappearing from the record altogether. These changes in productivity and chironomid
assemblages are unprecedented in the past 5,000 years. The dramatic ecological shifts that occurred at Lake CF8 have also
been observed elsewhere in the Arctic, and will likely continue at ever-increasing rates as anthropogenic inputs of green
house gases continue to cause climate warming and enhanced lacustrine primary production. 相似文献
19.
Darrell S. Kaufman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(1):1-6
The 14 papers in this Special Issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology report new records of Holocene climate and environmental change from Arctic lakes, with emphasis on the last 2000 years.
The study sites span the high latitudes of North America and extend into northwestern Europe. The studies rely on multiple
proxy indicators to reconstruct past climate, including: varve thicknesses, chironomid, diatom, and pollen assemblages, biogenic-silica
and organic-matter content, oxygen-isotope ratios in diatoms, and the frequency of lake-ice-rafted aggregates. These proxies
primarily document changes in past summer temperatures, the main control on physical and biological processes in lakes at
high latitudes. The records will be integrated into a larger network of paleoclimate sites to investigate the spatial and
temporal variability of climate change and to compare the paleoclimate inferences with the output of general circulation models.
This is the Introduction to a series of fourteen papers published as a special issue dedicated to reconstructing late Holocene
climate change from Arctic lake sediments. The special issue is a contribution to the International Polar Year and was edited
by Darrell Kaufman. 相似文献
20.
北极地区正在经历前所未有的气候及陆地环境变化,气温升高、植被绿化、冻土融化以及野火频发等因素已经对北极地区的第一产业产生了广泛而深远的影响。为了支撑气候变化背景下北极第一产业的可持续发展与相关政策的制定,有必要加强北极气候及陆地环境变化对第一产业影响的整体性认识。本文针对北极地区的种植业、畜牧业、林业以及渔业4个第一产业部门,系统梳理了它们受到气候及陆地环境变化影响的类型与程度。同时,本文基于跨部门视角总结了当前北极环境变化对第一产业影响的相关研究,并从5个方面进行了分析与展望：① 气候及陆地环境变化对第一产业的具体影响方式;② 整合局域性科学认识的挑战;③ 气候变化适应策略的制定与实施;④ 数据与方法层面的整合与创新;⑤ 气候变化影响下北极第一产业变化对中国的启示。本文总结了未来气候变化背景下北极第一产业研究的重点领域,可为中国参与北极第一产业资源的可持续利用与开发提供参考。 相似文献