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1.
Rapid estimation of ground-shaking maps for seismic emergency management in the Campania Region of southern Italy 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Vincenzo Convertito Raffaella De Matteis Luciana Cantore Aldo Zollo Giovanni Iannaccone Mauro Caccavale 《Natural Hazards》2010,52(1):97-115
Strong ground-shaking mapping soon after a moderate-to-large earthquake is crucial to recognize the areas that have suffered
the largest damage and losses. These maps have a fundamental role for emergency services, loss estimation and planning of
emergency actions by the Civil Protection Authorities. This is particularly important for areas with high seismic risk levels,
such as the Campania-Lucania Region in southern Italy. Taking advantage of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), a recently
installed dense and wide dynamic seismic network, we have developed a procedure for rapid estimation of ground-shaking maps
after moderate-to-large earthquakes (GRSmap). This uses an optimal data gridding scheme designed to account for bi-dimensional
features of strong ground-motion fields, such as directivity, radiation patterns and focal mechanisms, to which most damage
can be correlated. The basis of the mapping technique is a triangulation procedure to locally correct predicted data at the
triangle barycentres where their vertices correspond to seismic stations. The method has been tested off-line using a simulated
M 6.6 earthquake located at the centre of ISNet and applied to data of the 23 November 1980 Irpina M 6.9 earthquake recorded by a sparse network. This has highlighted its ability to predict peak ground-motion parameters of
large magnitude earthquakes with respect to the attenuation relationships. 相似文献
2.
通过实时地震观测数据获取能力和计算机性能的巨大提高 ,快速生成仪器观测的地面运动和地震动强度空间分布成为可能 ,利用这一成果结合地震灾害易损性研究成果和地震灾害评估模型 ,可以对破坏性地震造成的损失进行快速评估 ,为地震应急响应和决策指挥提供更可靠的信息支持。本文概述了利用强地面运动加速度观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估方法在国内外最新进展 ,提出了利用我省强震台网观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估的基本思路。 相似文献
3.
Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68?% and casualty estimates by ±84?%. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68?C221?% depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68?% of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155?%. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. 相似文献
4.
Earthquake casualty prediction is crucial for efficient and effective emergency management and response. In order to improve prediction reliability of earthquake casualties, correlation analysis and principal component analysis are used to select prediction covariates. Finally, five key indexes, including magnitude, epicenter intensity, population density, earthquake occurrence time and damaged building area, are chosen. According to the “two-stage” rule of earthquake casualties, a prediction model based on the modified partial Gaussian curve is proposed. In order to improve its prediction accuracy, the paper looked epicenter intensity and the casualty as the variables. And the partial Gaussian curve prediction model is modified by using the magnitude coefficient, population density coefficient, earthquake occurrence time coefficient and damaged building coefficient. The cross-validation experimental results show that the modified partial Gaussian curve has the advantages of good stability and high prediction accuracy comparing with the high-order nonlinearity, logarithmic curve, multivariate linearity, artificial neural network and so on. It can be used in practice from earthquake casualty prediction. 相似文献
5.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard
analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake
Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First,
it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it
helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose
their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing
the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis
modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction
potential, building damage and casualty. 相似文献
6.
Bad weather conditions usually limit the acquisition of optical remote sensing images, while all day and all weather synthetic aperture radar (SAR) shows the ability of providing timely remote sensing data for emergency response and rescue works after earthquake. Because SAR is sensitive to the surface changes caused by earthquake, the modified electromagnetic behaviour by geological disasters and the collapse of buildings can be recorded in SAR images as backscattering intensity changes. Absolute radiometric calibration was performed to SAR products to derive backscattering coefficient sigma nought from image digital number (DN). Based on change detection methods, Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data and TerraSAR-X data acquired for the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake were used to extract earthquake damage information. This study revealed that landslides showed stronger backscattering and barrier lakes showed lower backscattering in post-earthquake 10 m ALOS PALSAR images comparing to pre-earthquake, and collapsed buildings showed lower backscattering compared to un-collapsed buildings in 1 m TerraSAR-X image. Results showed that SAR data with different spatial resolutions are useful for different earthquake damage information extraction: medium spatial resolution SAR data, e.g. 10 m ALOS PALSAR data, were efficient for secondary geological disaster extraction; high-resolution SAR data, e.g. 1 m TerraSAR-X data, with the help of ancillary GIS data or high-resolution optical data, could be used to extract building collapse information in urban areas. This study indicates that SAR remote sensing data can provide earthquake damage information at early emergency stage and assist the field surveying, further damage assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. 相似文献
7.
Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Risk reduction as an outcome only takes place if results of risk estimation studies are used to develop action plans for risk-management and risk-reduction strategies. This paper describes an automated model that uses the output of existing earthquake loss estimation methodologies to support decision makers in evaluating a set of competing seismic mitigation strategies and exploring their impact in reducing socio-economic losses of urban settlements. The proposed model is structured to quantify the monetary value of earthquake losses and to find an optimal budget allocation assigned to each mitigation strategy based on user input. The optimization method takes into account both pre- and post-earthquake expenditures, such as costs of building upgrades, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter provisions, debris removal, hospitalization and human casualty. The system consists of five main modules: (1) building damage function; (2) mitigated damage function; (3) cost estimation function; (4) optimization function; and (5) user interface function. Whereas the optimization function provides the optimal values assigned to each mitigation alternative based on the estimated costs and a defined budget, the user interface allows the decision maker to interact with the software in each step and plan mitigation strategies that best suit the user’s socio-economic requirements and limitations. The outputs of the proposed model are presented with respect to an application in a pilot study area within a vulnerable city district of Tehran, Iran. 相似文献
8.
Stav Shapira Tsafrir Levi Yaron Bar-Dayan Limor Aharonson-Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1059-1074
The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed. 相似文献
9.
10.
Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention. 相似文献
11.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
12.
In the collaborative mapping of disasters, response situations and decisions, it is important to support various emergency responders with a unified platform to help in decision making and coordinating emergency action. However, most existing symbol libraries focus primarily on representing disasters and related information. These libraries lack specific symbols to map response situations and emergency decisions. For representation of dynamic disasters and response factors, these symbols support rich interactive editing after the symbols are mapped. In addition, decision making and mapping of disasters and response situations typically involve different domains of expertise and different responsibilities of map makers. It is essential to construct a collaborative mapping engine that supports disaster and emergency mapping on a collaborative platform. However, most existing methods of collaboration cannot readily support collaboration on symbols containing complex data structures or accommodate rich interactive editing operations. This article proposes a collaborative mapping engine for dynamic disasters and emergency responses. To support collaborative mapping based on complex data structures and rich interactive map symbols, it proposes a method of mapping operation replication to implement collaboration. Additionally, strategies were designed to enhance the efficiency and stability of collaboration. Finally, an experiment was conducted using the Wenchuan earthquake as an example. The results reveal that the engine can contribute to improved mapping efficiency and management during emergencies. 相似文献
13.
城市应急管理模型之设计 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
随着城市建设的快速发展 ,各类危及国家和人民群众生命财产安全的突发性事故灾害时有发生 ,尽管各有关部门的抢救队伍在实施抢险救援中发挥了积极作用 ,但各抢险救援力量专业单一、分散行动 ,形成不了合力 ,难以及时有效处置重大或特大突发性、综合性、大面积的城市事故灾害 ,特别是像地震以及的美国的 9 1 1那样突发性事故。我们目前开展的震害预测与灾害快速评估系统只是针对地震的 ,而地震是小概率事件。因此要应对城市各种重大突发事件 ,城市有必要建立一种应急机制或综合的应急管理信息系统。根据“数字城市”的思想 ,通过一个通信系统与信息系统集成的平台 ,统一协调公安、消防、急救、交警、公共事业、民防、地震等政府部门 ,为市民提供快速、及时的各种救助和相应的服务。统一报警、统一指挥、快速反应、联合行动 ,从而有效地减少损失。 相似文献
14.
15.
N. I. Frolova V. I. Larionov J. Bonnin S. P. Sushchev A. N. Ugarov M. A. Kozlov 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):63-80
Timely and adequate action just after a strong earthquake can result in significant benefits in saving lives, as well as other benefits. For these cases, information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough and rapid information may be provided by, first of all, “global systems” (i.e., systems that are operated wherever the earthquake has occurred on the globe), in emergency mode. This paper gives a brief history of existing “global systems” and analyzes the factors which influence the reliability of earthquake impact simulation in near real time. 相似文献
16.
A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a
damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations
of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide
a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect
the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate
the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential
hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms
of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground
motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account
in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based
on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for
emergency response. 相似文献
17.
18.
Comprehensive hazard mitigation involves (1) understanding natural systems, (2) assessment of interactions within and between social systems and the built environment, and (3) understanding geo-spatial processes. To achieve this, local emergency managers must recognize variability in vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. In this study, we assess whether cities in Los Angeles County are subject to disproportionally greater earthquake losses modeled from a M7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, we analyze whether the variation in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics across cities is associated with the earthquake losses. We were able to explain 23.2?% of variance in economic losses by looking at the percentage of minority residents, income, and renter residents in a city [F(3,84)?=?8.47; p?<?.001]. Cities with primarily minority residents had greater economic losses when compared to cities with primarily White residents (b?=?1.01; p?<?.001). When looking at the association between demographic predictors and potential casualty rate, the percentage of Hispanic residents was positively associated with the potential casualty rate. We argue that knowledge of the relationship between earthquake hazard and the demographic characteristics of people in the area at risk is essential to mitigate the local impact from earthquakes. In other words, we apply social vulnerability assessment as part of a comprehensive risk management framework to accelerate recovery after an event. Local policy makers and the private sector can use this approach to gain a better understanding of a city??s social vulnerability and adapt their preparedness efforts accordingly. 相似文献
19.
基于简化 Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估以汶川MS 8.0级地震为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以汶川MS8.0级地震重灾区的11县市为例,初步提出了基于简化Newmark位移模型的地震滑坡危险性应急快速评估方法。利用汶川地震即时地震动参数、工程地质岩性经验分组及地形坡度数据,借助ArcGIS空间数据建模工具编制了地震滑坡危险性快速评估流程模块。计算了区域浅表层饱和岩土体斜坡的静态安全系数Fs、临界加速度ac,并借此分析了地震滑坡易发性。利用经验式获得了汶川地震Arias强度和区域滑坡位移DN分布,实现了汶川地震重灾区地震滑坡危险性的快速评估,为应急救灾决策提供了参考。通过对比评估结果和震后滑坡调查成果,可知数十处灾难性滑坡绝大部分位于-高危险区的龙门山主中央断裂带两侧约20km地带中,显示了评估方法的可靠性; 同时,分析指出了空间数据精度及更新不足导致局部评估结果欠佳的局限性,并提出了改进建议。 相似文献
20.
Zhenming Wang 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):749
Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations. 相似文献