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1.
The compilation of the data for past disasters is vital for taking lessons from the past, investigating their reasons, preventing the loss in the future and for disaster planning-related works. In Turkey, especially in Istanbul which has a historical background of more than 8000 years, the demand for backdated disaster data increases to determine the dangers that the city is faced with and to analyze them. The purpose of our work is to develop a hazard profile identification model for Istanbul by using “Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Therefore, we searched for different types of disasters and hazard classifications in various national and international databases. We scrutinized the kinds of disasters, hazards and hazard characteristics that should be used for a proposed model. By examining “Istanbul’s 2000 Years of Disaster Database” and 100 years of Republic’s statistics prepared for Istanbul, we identified the disaster categories and criteria, ran the Analytic Hierarchy Process and created a hazard profile model for Istanbul. Consequently, we proved that the most important types of disasters that affect Istanbul are geophysical disasters followed by climatological, hydrological, meteorological and technological disasters. The work also shows us that the districts which have a high rate of the population such as Bagcilar, Kucukcekmece and Esenyurt are more vulnerable to these hazards.  相似文献   

2.
Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.  相似文献   

3.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Many environmental problems caused by subway excavations have inevitably become an important point in city life. These problems can be categorized as transporting and stocking of excavated material, traffic jams, noise, vibrations, piles of dust mud and lack of supplies. Although these problems cause many difficulties, the most pressing for a big city like Istanbul is excavation, since other listed difficulties result from it. Moreover, these problems are environmentally and regionally restricted to the period over which construction projects are underway and disappear when construction is finished. Currently, in Istanbul, there are nine subway construction projects in operation, covering approximately 73 km in length; over 200 km to be constructed in the near future. The amount of material excavated from ongoing construction projects covers approximately 12 million m3. In this study, problems—primarily, the problem with excavation waste (EW)—caused by subway excavation are analyzed and suggestions for remediation are offered.  相似文献   

5.
The creation of earthquake hazard maps requires various datasets with selected attenuation relations. Based on the selected attenuation relation, the calculation time varies from half an hour to a couple of days. The length of time needed to create an earthquake hazard map also depends on the resolution of the resulting map. The time gets longer as the resolution of the resulting earthquake hazard map gets higher. The basic form of an attenuation relation requires complex calculation algorithms including geospatial information related to the region of interest. Nowadays, next-generation attenuation (NGA) models are introduced to generate more realistic earthquake hazard maps. However, the more complex the attenuation relation is, the longer time will be required to create a hazard map. This paper offers a new method to create high-resolution earthquake hazard maps, faster than using traditional attenuation relation methods, by using an analytic hierarchy process of spatial multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information systems. This method has been generated and tested for the city of Istanbul. The resulting maps are compared with the earthquake hazard maps created for the city of Istanbul by using the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (in Boore–Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters (trans: Engineering Co, University of California B). Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 2007). A second output of this paper is a map of the elements at risk (EaR) for the population and buildings of Istanbul, and the introduction of a new approach of net elements at risk (NEaR).  相似文献   

6.
The shelf area is the largest morphological unit of the Marmara Sea and is subjected to increasing population, urbanization, and industrial activities. Metal contents (Al, Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cr, Co and Hg) of the surface sediments from the shelf areas of the Marmara Sea generally do not indicate shelf-wide pollution. The variability of the metal contents of the shelf sediments is mainly governed by the geochemical differences in the northern and southern hinterlands. Northern shelf sediments contain lower values compared to those of the southern shelf, where higher Ni, Cr, Pb, Cu and Zn are derived from the rock formations and mineralized zones. However, besides from the natural high background in the southern shelf, some anthropogenic influences are evident from EF values of Pb, Zn and Cu, and also from their high mobility in the semi-isolated bay sediments. Anthropogenic influences are found to be limited at the confluence of Istanbul Strait in the northern shelf. However, suspended sediments along the shallow parts of the northern shelf were found to be enriched in Pb and Hg and to a lesser degree in Zn, reflecting anthropogenic inputs from Istanbul Metropolitan and possibly from the Black Sea via the Istanbul Strait.  相似文献   

7.
We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.  相似文献   

8.
The role of geoenvironmental information is becoming increasingly important as legislative changes have forced developers and planning authorities to consider more implications and impact on the environment of large-scale development initiatives. Therefore, integration of surface and subsurface geoscientific information for development needs has prime importance and provides a means of identifying potential problems and opportunities at an early stage in any planned development. However, from the experience of recent natural disasters, it is evident that this was not case the taken into consideration in many countries. In addition to thousands of casualties, many urbanized areas, industrial districts and large-scale engineering structures suffered severe damages from the natural hazards due to many reasons including the lack of preliminary engineering geological maps and zoning maps of the settlement areas. Turkey is one of the countries which is exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and floods. In particular, the devastating 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, which affected the Marmara Region of Turkey, focused the attention on densely urbanized and industrialized metropolitan areas such as Istanbul. The rapid growth of Istanbul, particularly towards west with minimal geoscientific information resulted in an overwhelming pressure on the natural environment. In addition, a large earthquake, which is expected to occur in the Marmara Sea within the next 30 years, also pose a threat to the city and its surroundings. In this study, on the basis of the geological, geomorphological and geophysical reconnaissance study, an integrated geoscientific data were collected from the western region of Istanbul and evaluated for geohazards. The paper focuses on the geological and geomorphological aspects that control the occurrence of some geohazards such as earthquake-induced liquefaction, landslides and flooding. In this context, the geological map of the region was revised and Quaternary deposits were classified into 11 units, in detail. Liquefaction-prone areas were evaluated by using geomorphological criteria based on field investigation, by the examination of the available records from 88 boreholes drilled on recent deposits and by the data from resistivity profiles. The landslides within the region were classified according to their type, relative depth and activity. In addition, fluvial and marine flood-prone areas were also delimited within the region. Finally, a series of maps such as landslide inventory maps, and maps showing liquefaction- and flood-prone areas were produced with the aid of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assist in designing further detailed site investigations and to reduce costs by ensuring a more focused approach to strategic planning and site selection.  相似文献   

9.
As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.  相似文献   

10.
Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.  相似文献   

11.
Istanbul today is probably unique in the world not only in terms of the recognition of its earthquake risk by its inhabitants and administrators, but also in terms of significant steps taken in a such a short time toward the mitigation of its earthquake vulnerabilities. This paper, however, deals with the issues that still remain unattended.  相似文献   

12.
Twenty seven buildings collapsed and 2076 buildings were heavily damaged during 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake in Avc?lar (west of Istanbul), which is nearly 100 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. The geology of Avc?lar consists of Upper Miocene poorly bounded conglomerate and sandstone (Çukurçe?me formation), claystone with sandstone and limestone interbedding (Güngören member) and limestone with sandstone and claystone interbedding (Bak?rköy formation). Lithological and geotechnical parameters of these formations in Avc?lar are not different from non damaged parts of the western Istanbul such as Zeytinburnu, Bak?rköy and Beylikdüzü, but these formations were cut by several faults in the damaged area. Collapsed and damaged buildings are located on this fault zone. Thus, cause of large amplification and damage in Avc?lar might be related with this fault zone because the fault zone behaves as a waveguide trapping seismic energy.  相似文献   

13.
The urban heat island (UHI) is a result of urbanization, causing local microclimatologic changes such as increase in ambient temperature. Factors causing the UHI effect are anthropogenic energy release, energy absorption by concrete, tarmac structures and traffic, although the main factor is the replacement of vegetation with man-made structures. These factors cause heating of not only local air but also subsurface and groundwater. Observations of groundwater temperatures from the urban, southern part of Istanbul (Turkey) and the rural, northern part of Istanbul revealed that the urban groundwater temperatures were 3.5°C higher than the rural. Urbanization is a direct consequence of improvements in technology and modern life. However, this comes at the cost of an ever-increasing demand for energy. Exploitation of low-enthalpy geothermal energy is an attractive alternative to fossil fuel based energies. From the environmental point of view, clean and cheap energy is the most preferable, with heat pumps being the best choice for recovery purposes. Usage of elevated groundwater temperature in the heat pumps in urban areas increases the efficiency of the heat pump system and yields more thermal energy than that of rural groundwater. This system may be applicable to Istanbul.  相似文献   

14.
The effect of PSS (Sodium Polystyrene Sulphonate) and NSF (Naphthalene Sulphonate Formaldehyde Condensate) chemicals used to control the pulp rheology on the grindability of coals was studied. Zonguldak region bituminous coal and Istanbul region brown coal samples that high and low rank were used. Wet grinding tests with two coal samples were performed with or without PSS and NSF under constant grinding conditions: solid ratios ranged from 50% to 60% with 0–60 min grinding periods.In the present study, grinding conditions of coal with high pulp solid ratio were improved through the lowering of the viscosity of the coal by using the dispersing agents, PSS and NSF, during the grinding stage and evaluation were made by using the “efficiency factor”. It is possible to increase the amount of finely ground bituminous coal from Zonguldak by 20% and 16%, if optimum concentrations of PSS (0.3%) and NSF (0.7%) are used, respectively. Whereas, the increase in the case of finely ground lignite from Istanbul was 32% and 20%, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
Magnetotelluric (MT) measurements at six locations along a 90-km profile across the area between Gölpazari and Akcaova have been modeled in two dimensions to increase understanding of the deep conductivity structure of the western part of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) and the Istanbul and Sakarya zones.

It is well known from surface geology that the branch of the NAFZ that passes through the Pamukova Valley with an E-W strike separates the region into two sub-areas, containing contrasting sets of geological features. These two areas also exhibit significant differences in terms of their deep conductivity structure. Electrical resistivity is quite low (10 ohmm) south of the fault at an approximate depth of 26 km, compared to the area north of the fault zone. This low-resistivity zone may provide an indication of partial melting at this depth.

In the northern part of the profile beneath Ücgaziler (DUC) and Akcaova (DAK), a five-layered conductivity sequence obtained by magnetotelluric modeling and the magnetotelluric model has been examined in light of the surface geology. It is concluded that layers in the conductivity model may correspond to fragments of the Istanbul zone and the Sakarya continent, as well as the ophiolitic slab in between.  相似文献   

16.
Altinok  Y.  Ersoy  Ş 《Natural Hazards》2000,21(2-3):185-205
For centuries, inhabitants of coastal areas have suffered from the effects of tsunamis. Turkey, with a coastline of 8333 km, has experienced many tsunamis.Historical records reveal that, during the observation period over 3000 years, the coastal and surrounding areas of Turkey have been affected by more than ninety tsunamis. These tended to cluster around the Marmara Sea, the city of Istanbul and the gulfs of Izmit, Izmir, Fethiye and Iskenderun. Each of the tsunami occurrences surveyed in this paper deserves further individual study. The most extensive available information concerns the tsunamis associated with the Istanbul Earthquakes of 1509 and 1894, the Eastern Marmara Earthquake in 1963 and that of Izmit in 1999,which disturbed the Marmara Sea; the Earthquake of 1939 in Erzincan ineastern Anatolia; and the 1968 Bartn Earthquake, which affected Fatsa and Amasra on the Black Sea. In addition to these, it is known that a tsunami occurred in 1598 on the shores of the Black Sea in connection with an earthquake at Amasya in northern Anatolia.  相似文献   

17.
Awareness and perception of risk are among the most crucial steps in the process of taking precautions at individual level for various hazards. In this study, we investigated the factors affecting better knowledge and greater risk perception about earthquakes among residents of Istanbul. A field survey was carried out, and a total of 1,123 people were interviewed in two districts of Istanbul with different seismic risk levels and from three (low, moderate and high) socio-economic levels (SEL). The findings showed that although the level of knowledge regarding earthquakes and preparedness for them was promising, it could be improved. The results indicated that future preparedness programmes should target people with lower educational and socio-economic levels. The media were the leading source of information among the respondents. Location of the home was a strong influence on individuals having above average earthquake knowledge and even more on high risk perception. Socio-economic parameters (educational level, economic status, SEL of the sub-district and tenure of the home), gender and attitude score were other factors influencing greater risk perception with regard to earthquakes.  相似文献   

18.
Considering the number of endangered museums in Istanbul and the size of their collections, assessing and mitigating the earthquake risk is an immense task by any standard. This paper provides a status report on the current earthquake risk mitigation efforts taken by the museums in Turkey. It summarizes several projects that have been carried out over the past few years to protect museums and its collections from earthquake damage and defines future actions that would mitigate earthquake risks associated with museum buildings and their contents.  相似文献   

19.
Earlier geological work in the Istanbul zone, western Pontide tectonic belt, has revealed the presence of extensive basement outcrops exposed underneath Palaeozoic and Mesozoic to Tertiary cover sequences. The basement of suspected Neoproterozoic age plays an important role in understanding the crustal accretion process in NW Turkey. We report the first results of a detailed Pb-Pb and U-Pb zircon study complemented by Nd-Sr whole rock and mineral data from basement rocks exposed in the Karadere valley, Safranbolu area. Five samples were selected for this study, comprising three metagranitoids and two metasediments. Zircon geochronology indicates that the metagranitoids were formed during Late Proterozoic pan-African magmatic events between 590 and 560 Ma. The rocks are of tonalitic and granitic composition and have low Nb/Y ratios and Ti contents, consistent with those of arc rocks. A continental arc setting is supported by their Sr and Nd isotope data that indicate a contribution of a mantle source as well as crustal assimilation during magma genesis. The metasediments can clearly be distinguished from the metagranitoids by their higher 87Sr/86Sr ratios and lower )Nd-values at 580 Ma, which supports the suggestion that the arc was underlain by mature continental crust. Zircons from the metasediments yield a range of Pb-Pb ages between 1,860 and 710 Ma. Thirty per cent of them fall between 890 and 710 Ma, possibly suggesting a derivation from Gondwana (Afro-Arabian) regions. A Sm-Nd garnet-whole rock analysis obtained on a metagranite gives an age of 559NJ Ma, which either reflects pre-metamorphic magmatic growth of garnet in a felsic melt or a syntectonic high-temperature metamorphic event. Uplift and cooling of the basement is further constrained by Rb-Sr biotite ages of 548-545 Ma. These lower Cambrian mineral ages demonstrate that the Istanbul zone was not thermally reactivated during the Hercynian, Cimmerian or Alpine orogeny, in contrast to its neighbouring tectonic zones, confirming its role as a suspect terrane in the modern western Pontide tectonic belt.  相似文献   

20.
This paper presents an integrated, earthquake-damage assessment that standardizes and quantifies methods of analysis. The proposed methodology evaluates all damage-causing phenomena, both individually and in combination. This approach inherently relates to soil-structure interactions by quantifying site-specific geotechnical and structural properties. Specifically considered is ground shaking, the primary damage-causing phenomenon. Also evaluated are the collateral effects of liquefaction, degradation of seismic-bearing capacity and slope failure (landslides). The methodology incorporates a literature-derived probabilistic assessment of damage-causation, and is interpreted and presented as single numbers deemed “Damage Grades.” These damage grades integrate the initial probabilistic evaluation with professional experience and judgment in order to determine potential damage to a particular structure at a particular location. This methodology was applied, with success, to two different locations in Istanbul, Turkey. It should be tested by engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers, for it may be applicable to earthquake-prone areas elsewhere.  相似文献   

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