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1.
Flash flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters in China. A quantitative flash flood hazard assessment is important for saving human lives and reducing economic losses. In this study, integrated rainfall–runoff modeling (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic modeling (FLO-2D) schemes were used to assess flash flood inundation areas and depths under 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, 500-year and 1000-year rainfall scenarios in a mountainous basin (Hadahe River Basin, HRB) in northern China. The overall flash flood hazard in HRB is high. Under the eight rainfall scenarios, the total flooded area ranged from 6 to 8.73 km2; the flash flood inundation areas with depths of 1–2 m, 2–3 m, and over 3 m was 1.53–2.69 km2, 0.63–1.44 km2 and 0.33–1.11 km2, respectively; and these areas accounted for 25.5–30.8%, 10.5–16.5% and 5.5–12.7% of the whole flooded area. The total flooded area increases rapidly with the return period increasing from 5 to 200 years, and the increase gradient slows when the return period is greater than 200 years. In the downstream area of HRB, the flash flood area with inundation depths greater than 1 m accounted for 54–71% of the flooded area under the eight scenarios. In comparison to other areas in the HRB, the downstream area is at the highest risk given its extensive inundation and substantial property exposure. The quantitative hazard assessment framework presented in this study can be applied in other mountainous basins for flash flood defense and disaster management purposes. 相似文献
2.
Flooding is a serious problem in Jakarta, and detailed estimation of flood damage is necessary to design optimal flood management strategies. This study aims to estimate flood damage in a densely populated area in Jakarta by means of a survey, to develop the relationship between flood characteristics and flood damage, and to compare the damage estimates from the survey with the damage estimates obtained by a flood damage model for Jakarta, i.e. the damage scanner model. We collected data on economic losses of the January 2013 flood in a survey of flood-affected households and business units in Pesanggrahan River. The actual flood damage in the survey area is US$ 0.5 million for the residential sector and US$ 0.7 million for the business sector. The flood damage for a similar event in the same area based on the damage scanner model is estimated to be US$ 1.3 million for the residential sector and US$ 9.2 million for the business sector. The flood damage estimates obtained by the survey approach are lower compared to the damage scanner approach due to different ways in obtaining flood damage data and in defining the maximum flood damage per object, the different spatial levels of analysis, and uncertainties in constructing the flood damage curves that were applied in the damage scanner model. 相似文献
3.
Floods are one of the most severe hydrological hazards that cause an excessive threat to landscape stability, population welfare, infrastructure and spatial development in the Syrian coastal region. Al-Hussain river basin, like other Syrian coastal basins, is prone to a hazardous, frequent-flooding threat. However, investigating the probable areas of flooding risk is a difficult challenge that results from the almost complete absence of spatially distributed geo-hydrological measurements in Al-Hussain river basin. In this regard, geohydromorphometric parameters (Stream number Nu, Stream length Lu, Bifurcation ratio Rb, Form factor F, Elongation ratio Eb, Drainage density Dd, Stream frequency Fs, Drainage texture Td, Lemniscate ratio K, Compactness index C, Circulatory ratio Rc, Ruggedness number Rn, Basin relief Hr, and Relief ratio Rr) derived from remote sensing data in the GIS environment can provide a comprehensive and objective approach that can be utilized to map the spatial distribution of flood hazards at the level of delineated sub-basins. This being the case, the present research focuses on exploring the spatial distribution of flood risk in ten sub-basins belonging to Al-Hussain river basin by using spatial techniques tools in order to overall determine the hydro-prioritization of conservation. The geo-visualization map of generated flash flood susceptibility evaluates five degrees of the flood risk: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The flood risk map indicates that Qalea, and Talaa sub-basins have massive hydrodynamic risk, which, in turn, indicates the urgent need of soil and water maintaining measures. This hydrological dynamic in these sub-basins is explained by high values of Dd, F, Rr, Rn, Rc, and K, respectively. Overall, the spatial outcomes of the current work successfully proved the efficiency of extracted geohydromorphometric layers from RS data in the context of the spatial assessment of flash flood hazard; they also ensure ecological sustainability and productivity of the study basin. 相似文献
4.
We describe and give hydrological applications of a probabilistic model based on extreme value theory which can be used to study the values of a hydrologic process that exceed a certain threshold level Q
B
.This model is useful in estimating extreme events X
T
of return period T based on N years of available hydrologic record. We also present easy-to-use tables which give confidence intervals for X
T
.The hydrologic applications reported are a flood frequency analysis, a methodology for estimating flood damage, an estimation of precipitation probabilities, and a prediction of extreme tide levels. 相似文献
5.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have substantially contributed to intensification of heavy precipitation and thus the risk of flood occurrence, and this anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. Thus, precise quantification of human-induced GHG emissions is urgently required for modeling future global warming and precipitation changes, which is strongly linked to flood disasters. Recently, GHG evasion from hydroelectric reservoirs was estimated to be 48 Tg C as CO 2 and 3 Tg C as CH 4 annually, lower than earlier estimate (published in Nature Geoscience; 2011). Here, we analyzed the uncertainties of GHG emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs, that is, reservoir surface area, data paucity and carbon emission relating to ecological zone, and argued that GHG evasion from global hydroelectric reservoirs has been largely under-estimated. Our study hopes to improve the quantification for future researches. 相似文献
6.
Floods in Malaysia have been increasing in frequency and magnitude as reflected in the Kelantan Flood event in 2014 that resulted in a huge loss of lives and properties. Whereas remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) tools have been extensively applied in flood disaster management, there are few reports and studies on the impact of floods on the land use/land cover environment in a post-disaster assessment. In this study, an integrated modelling approach was developed that used Landsat 8 OLI TIRS (Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor) data, flood indexing and classification processes to estimate the impact of flood on the environment. The Normalized Difference Flood Index-3 (NDFI 3) is an improvement on NDFI 2 that takes into account the effects of cloud shadow in the images when extracting flood index areas. The flood model developed showed good agreement when compared with flooded areas shown in SAR (synthetic-aperture radar) image. The results of the flood extent as a proxy for damage estimation showed that the total flooded area was 502.34 km 2 for the Kelantan Flood event in 2014, with plantation and built-up area accounting for 43 and 34.6% respectively. The least affected land uses/land covers were deforested area and forest, which accounted for 12.2 and 10.2% respectively. The RS and GIS technique developed in this post-disaster damage assessment is effective, relatively inexpensive and simple to implement by local authorities in support of post-flood disaster planning and decision-making. 相似文献
7.
Oxygen isotopic fractionations have been determined between quartz and water, albite and water, and anorthite and water at temperatures from 300 to 825°C, and pressures from 1.5. to 25 kbar. The equilibrium quartz-feldspar fractionation curves can be approximated by the following equations: 1000ln αQ?PI = (0.46 + 0.55 β)10 6T?2 + (0.02 + 0.85 β) between 500 and 800°C 1000ln αQ?PI = (0.79 + 0.90 β)10 6T?2 — (0.43 ? 0.30 β) between 400 and 500°C where β is the mole-fraction of anorthite in plagioclase.Application of these isotopic thermometer calibrations to literature data on quartz and feldspar gives temperatures for some metamorphic rocks which are concordant with quartz-magnetite temperatures. Plutonic igneous rocks typically have quartz-feldspar fractionations which are substantially larger than the equilibrium values at solidus temperatures, indicating substantial retrograde exchange effects. 相似文献
8.
An important issue that is not considered in most flood risk assessments in mountain villages in Spain is the transport of solids associated with the flood flow, in this case, large wood transport. The transport and deposition of this wood in urban areas may be a potentially worse hazard than the flood flow itself. Despite its importance, large wood is a key ecological element in rivers, so removing it could be an unsuccessful approach. Therefore, efforts are needed in the better understanding of wood transport and deposition in streams. To analyse this process, scenario-based 2D hydrodynamic flood modelling was carried out. Since flood risk assessment has considerable intrinsic uncertainty, probabilistic thinking was complemented by possibilistic thinking, considering worst-case scenarios. This procedure obtained a probabilistic flood map for a 500-year return period. Then, a series of scenarios was built based on wood budget to simulate wood transport and deposition. Results allowed us to identify the main infrastructures sensitive to the passing of large wood and simulate the consequences of their blockage due to wood. The potential damage was estimated as well as the preliminary social vulnerability for all scenarios (with and without wood transport). This work shows that wood transport and deposition during flooding may increase potential damage at critical stream configurations (bridges) by up to 50 % and the number of potentially exposed people nearby these areas by up to 35 %. 相似文献
9.
Based on the unsaturated triaxial experiments for the intact fourth period Middle Pleistocene Epoch loess (Q 2l loess), the mechanical characteristic of Q 2l loess is studied. According to the continuum damage mechanics and elastic–plastic theory, the damage potential function and loading function were deduced. Besides, plastic deformation and irreversible damage deformation are supposed to obey Hyushin’s postulate. The elastoplastic damage constitutive model and damage evolution law of the unsaturated intact Q 2 loess are set up. Comparing the experiment curves with the computation result of this model, it is shown that the model can stimulate the mechanics characteristics of Q 2 loess well. 相似文献
10.
The necessity of estimating the degree and spatial extent of positive impacts with regard to protecting communities and properties
through potential flood control projects can be considered one of the main reasons for performing flood modeling. This paper
presents an overall systematic approach based on the simulation of some extreme event conditions, using a hydrological model
to generate the resulting river flows and then using a hydraulic modeling exercise to decide upon floodplain evolution in
the case-study area, Bostanli river basin, which has been under the threat of flooding for many years. The potential serviceability
of the planned Bostanli Dam in the study area was examined by using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS modeling tools, both integrated
with GIS functions for spatial operations. The results indicate that the dam construction as planned would have a somewhat
positive impact as a potential flood control measure, since it seems to decrease the flood peaks of 68.9 and 158.7 m 3/s (that would potentially be generated by 100- and 500-year storm events under current conditions) to 65.5 and 150.7 m 3/s (when the dam is in operation), respectively. However, this seems to contribute little to the overall flood mitigation
performance in the basin. 相似文献
11.
Flood has always been a destructive natural hazard during the recent years. Hence, this research aimed to predict the potentiality and probability of flood phenomenon by using the two well-known models, i.e., the MARS algorithm (multivariate adaptive regression splines) and MaxEnt (maximum entropy) method in the Saliantapeh catchment, Golestan province, Iran, covering 4515.47 km2. First, documentary sources report and field surveys were used to provide a flood database map. Then, to prepare the flood spatial potentiality map (FSPM), we select sixteen influential variables as predictors. Furthermore, the relative contributions of predicting factors are estimated using the MaxEnt method. For the analysis of data sensitivity and the uncertainty of the proposed models, different scenarios including the sample size (50%/50%, 80%/20%, and 70%/30%, respectively, for training and validation), and the number of replications (5, 10, and 20) were used. Along with the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the highest accuracy for both models corresponds to the first scenario of sample size (80/20%). Contrarywise, it can be concluded that for this scenario, the MARS technique indicated higher predictive skill (AUC?=?98.51%). Regarding the second scenario, which is corresponding to the replicate, the MARS model with 20 replications still has the highest accuracy (94.70%) compared to the other scenarios and the MaxEnt model. The findings of robustness demonstrated that the scenarios with the greatest AUC value have the highest robustness. This work demonstrates that the utilization of the best accurate model with high certainty along with FSPM may be useful to identify and manage the areas that are most susceptible to flood.
相似文献
12.
In this study, the performance of moving-bed biofilm sequencing batch reactor in operating the anaerobic/anoxic/oxic (A 2O) process for treatment of wastewaters containing nitrogen and phosphorous was evaluated. For this purpose, a pilot system with two bench-scale sequencing batch reactors with a total volume of 30 L and functional volume of 10 L was used. The installation was elaborated using plexiglass, in which 60% of the functional volume consisted of PVC suspended carriers (Kaldnes K3) with a specific surface area of 560 m 2/m 3. The independent variables used in this study were hydraulic retention time (HRT) (1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, and 3.5 h) and the initial organic load (300, 500, 800, 1000 mg O 2/L). The results showed impressive performance in the case of an initial organic load of 300 mg O 2/L and HRT of 3 h with maximum removal of COD and TN, respectively, by 95.1 and 89.8%. In the case of an initial organic load of 1000 mg O 2/L and HRT of 3.5 h, the maximum total phosphorus removal was 72.3%. Therefore, according to the analysis of data obtained by different HRTs, it was revealed that the system of A 2O has greater efficiency in removing organic matter from wastewater in the shortest possible time. 相似文献
13.
Geomorphic effects observed in the Barranco (creek) de Arás basin are used to characterize the flood. Sediment features allow to qualify the flood as essentially a water flow. Using the critical section method, the peak flood discharge is estimated to be between 400 and 600 m 3 s −1. Similar results were obtained using a paleohydraulic formula based on the size of the largest mobilized clasts. Using the rational method with available rainfall data, the discharge for a recurrence interval of 500 years is estimated to be between 150 and 200 m 3 s −1. These results agree with predictions obtained using curves of peak discharge versus basin area based on regional data. Several trenches dug on the fan showed that the size of boulders mobilized by the event is larger that those left by previous floods at the same place. When the estimated peak flood discharge is related to the basin area, values between 20 and 30 m 3 s −1 km −2 are obtained, demonstrating that the Barranco de Arás flood was most unusual. 相似文献
14.
Continental flood basalts (CFB) are considered as potential CO 2 storage sites because of their high reactivity and abundant divalent metal ions that can potentially trap carbon for geological timescales. Moreover, laterally extensive CFB are found in many place in the world within reasonable distances from major CO 2 point emission sources. Based on the mineral and glass composition of the Columbia River Basalt (CRB) we estimated the potential of CFB to store CO 2 in secondary carbonates. We simulated the system using kinetic dependent dissolution of primary basalt-minerals (pyroxene, feldspar and glass) and the local equilibrium assumption for secondary phases (weathering products). The simulations were divided into closed-system batch simulations at a constant CO 2 pressure of 100?bar with sensitivity studies of temperature and reactive surface area, an evaluation of the reactivity of H 2O in scCO 2, and finally 1D reactive diffusion simulations giving reactivity at CO 2 pressures varying from 0 to 100?bar. Although the uncertainty in reactive surface area and corresponding reaction rates are large, we have estimated the potential for CO 2 mineral storage and identified factors that control the maximum extent of carbonation. The simulations showed that formation of carbonates from basalt at 40?C may be limited to the formation of siderite and possibly FeMg carbonates. Calcium was largely consumed by zeolite and oxide instead of forming carbonates. At higher temperatures (60 ?C 100?C), magnesite is suggested to form together with siderite and ankerite. The maximum potential of CO 2 stored as solid carbonates, if CO 2 is supplied to the reactions unlimited, is shown to depend on the availability of pore space as the hydration and carbonation reactions increase the solid volume and clog the pore space. For systems such as in the scCO 2 phase with limited amount of water, the total carbonation potential is limited by the amount of water present for hydration of basalt. 相似文献
15.
Flood spreading is one of the suitable strategies to control and benefit from floods which in turn improve the groundwater recharge, makes soil more fertile, and increases nutrients in soil. It is also a method for reusing sediment, which is usually wasted. Thus, selection of suitable areas for flood spreading and directing the flood water into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision analysis and genetic algorithm (GA) of artificial intelligence approaches, this paper addresses the problem of finding the most suitable area location for flood spreading operation in the Gareh Bygone Plain of Iran. To this end, the nine effective geodata layers including slope, alluvium thickness, geology, morphology, electrical conductivity, land use, drainage density, aquifer transmissivity, and elevation were prepared in geographic information system environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for flood spreading while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the proposed methodology, the land suitability map for flood spreading was produced. The AHP and GA were used for ranking all the alternatives and weighting the criteria involved, respectively. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Q ft 2 and Q sf geologic units and in morphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 2 %. Finally, further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated AHP–GA method in locating most suitable flood spreading areas have been provided by such significant spatial coincidence between the produced map and the control areas located near Kowsar research station, where the earlier flood spreading projects were successfully performed. 相似文献
16.
Regional snowmelt flood disasters (RSFDs) can cause significant direct tangible damage which generally refers to the physical destruction due to direct contact with the flood water, such as damage to buildings, croplands, livestock, and infrastructure. Information about people, habitations, and infrastructure affected by the flood is essential for disaster responders and the humanitarian community to plan and coordinate emergency response activities. However, this direct tangible damage information obtained in the ground is limited, incomplete, contradictory, and sometimes impossible to obtain in a short time. Earth observation satellites help overcome operational uncertainties after the RSFDs. Here, we present an improved rapid direct tangible damage assessment model using HJ-1 and GF-1/2 satellite images. We selected the Altay region in northern Xinjiang, China, as the study area, and investigated a RSFD occurring in spring 2017. A series of HJ-1 and GF-1 images were used to track the flood extent over the duration of the disaster, and the maximum affected flood area was assigned as the area in which direct tangible damage occurred. Pre-disaster GF-2 images were then used to estimate direct tangible damage to habitations (2375 households and 6388 rooms), infrastructure (102 km of roads), and affected population (7125) in the flood area, which covered an area of 185,240 m 2. Our method is an effective approach for the design of rescue plans and disaster subsidy programs. 相似文献
17.
In the present study, four different heuristic techniques viz. multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), self-organizing maps (SOM), and co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) with hyperbolic tangent and sigmoid transfer functions and two regression-based techniques, i.e., multiple linear regression (MLR) and sediment-rating curve (SRC), were used for suspended sediment modeling. Gamma test (GT), correlation function (CF), M test, and trail–error procedure were applied for estimation of appropriate input variables as well as training data length. The results of the GT and CF suggested the five input variables ( Qt, Qt?1, Qt?2, St?1, and St?2, where Qt?1 and St?1 indicate the discharge and sediment values of one previous day) as the best combination. The optimal training data length (75% of total data) was estimated by M test and trail–error procedure for development of the applied models. The MLP with sigmoid transfer function (M-2) performed better than the all other models. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that the present-day discharge ( Qt), 1-day lag discharge ( Qt?1) and 1-day lag suspended sediment ( St?1) are the most influenced parameters in modeling current day suspended sediment ( St). 相似文献
18.
The partitioning of oxygen isotopes between quartz and magnetite was measured at 600 and 800 C and 5 kbar, using an internally heated pressure vessel equipped with a Shaw-membrane. Through adjustment of the hydrogen fugacity the starting material, fayalite, was decomposed to form quartz and magnetite. The isotopic composition difference between the separated quartz and magnetite fraction was measured directly. As the mineral separates were not completely pure, a correction was applied to the measured fractionations. The independence of the measured isotopic composition differences of run length, the initial isotopic composition of the starting materials as well as the isotopic composition difference between them suggests that the fractionations, 1000 In αQ-M = 7.8 ± 0.4% at 600°C and 1000 In αQ-M = 6.1 ± 0.2% at 800°C, represent equilibrium values. 相似文献
19.
The river Odra, which rises in the Czech Republic and disgorges into the Baltic, suffered an extreme flood in July 1997 which was responsible for the loss of 55 lives and over a billion dollars worth of damage in southern Poland. The return period of the flood is variously estimated between 250 and 1000 years. The paper describes the hydrological and hydraulic studies undertaken for a flood reservoir (storage capacity is approximately 180,000,000 m 3) to be constructed on the River Odra just upstream the ancient town of Raciborz, on the border between Poland and Czech Republic. These studies included the hydrodynamic modelling of a 220 km stretch of the river down to the city of Wroclaw where most of the damage occurred, flood damage analysis with and without the proposed reservoir, sensitivity analysis of operating rules for Nysa reservoirs and improvement of flood control capacity of existing channels and polders. Cost-benefits analysis, environmental impact assessments and resettlement plans, in addition to the engineering studies of the dam itself, were also carried out during the project stage but have not been included in the present paper. 相似文献
20.
The continuously low efficiencies of flood relief service in responding to flooding disasters in Taiwan highlight a need for research. This service efficiency is negatively influenced by flood relief facility locations and their operational management structure. The Fazih River floodplain has been previously identified as a high-flood-risk area using an analytic hierarchy process. The purpose of this study is to use the location set covering problem and the maximal covering location problem to determine the number of relief facilities required and the maximum covering area of each facility for the case study area of the Fazih River floodplain. The findings showed that covering distances range from 3.0 to 6.6 km and the number of facilities required for improved service efficiency is between 1 and 4. 相似文献
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