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1.
The study examines the synoptic situations and weather conditions under which occurred Israel's largest forest fires between
the years 1987–1995. Annual rainfall and maximum temperature were found to have a positive correlation with both the size
of the burnt area and the frequency of fires. A negative correlation was found for the relative humidity at 12 UTC for the
same parameters. The fire season in Israel starts in May and ends in November, the peak months being May, June and July. No
large fires were observed during the rainy season, December–February, despite the relatively low precipitation characterizing
the region. Atmospheric disturbances as well as quasi-stationary systems were found to be favorable for the development of
forest fires in Israel: the North African (‘Sharav’) cyclone and the Red Sea trough, which are common during spring and autumn.
These systems carry hot, dry air from the deserts and are responsible for 55% of the burnt area from major forest fires in
Israel and up to 33% of the major forest fires. Sixty-five percent of the forest fires occurred during the summer all of them
under the quasi-stationary system of the Persian Gulf trough. These fires did not spread as widely as those that occurred
under the North African cyclone and the Red Sea trough systems. The role of weather in the propagation of fire is exemplified
in the case study of the ‘Sha'ar ha Gai’ fire of July 1995 — the biggest forest fire in the history of Israel (1300 ha).
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
2.
Damien Rius Boris Vannière Didier Galop Hervé Richard 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(13-14):1696-1709
One lake and three peat bogs from the Lourdes glacial basin (France) were used for macrocharcoal analyses and fire frequency reconstruction over the entire Holocene (11700 years). The chronology was based upon thirty-three 14C AMS dates. Comparison of the distribution of both CHarcoal Accumulation Rate (CHAR) and fire return intervals showed that charcoal accumulation significantly differs between the lake and the peat bogs, but that frequency calculation overcomes the disparity between these site types. A composite frequency was built from the four individual records to assess regional versus local variability and fire regime controls by comparisons with regional fire activity, Holocene climatic oscillations and vegetation history. The millennial variability can be depicted as follows: relatively high frequency between 8000 and 5000 cal a BP (up to 5 fires/500 yrs), relatively low frequency between 5000 and 3000 cal a BP (down to 0 fires/500 yrs), and an increase between 3000 and 500 cal a BP (up to 4 fires/500 yrs). From 8000 to 5000 cal a BP, fire frequency displays strong synchrony between sites and appears to be mostly driven by increased summer temperature characterizing the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). On the contrary, during the last 3000 years fire frequency was heterogeneous between sites and most probably human-driven. However, higher frequency at the millennial scale during the mid-Holocene strongly suggests that the perception of human-driven fire regime depends on the strength of natural controls. 相似文献
3.
Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. 相似文献
4.
干旱气候因子与森林火灾 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
森林火灾作为一种自然灾害, 气候变化直接或间接影响森林燃烧的火环境, 进而对火发生和火行为产生影响. 干旱气候条件与森林火灾的发生有密切的关系, 气象条件通过气温、 日照、 蒸发量、 风力、 空气湿度等影响着森林火灾的发生和发展. 一般情况下, 气温高、 降水少、 湿度小、 风力大易发生森林火灾. 在山区, 山谷风和地形影响森林火灾蔓延, 森林火灾的蔓延主要受山谷风所控制, 具有间歇性, 另外地形的变化在很大程度上制约着火势的蔓延. 所以, 要利用不同时段的气象条件、 山风出现的时间及有利地形, 及时组织灭火和控制火势蔓延. 森林火灾的发生有各种类型, 通过对森林火灾中一些特殊火行为及相关元素对火灾发展蔓延影响分析, 找出森林火灾扑救与逃生的方法及注意事项. 相似文献
5.
Holocene colluvial chronology in a sub‐arctic esker landscape at Kuttanen,Finnish Lapland: kettleholes as geo‐ecological archives of interactions amongst fire,vegetation, soil,climate and geomorphological instability 
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下载免费PDF全文 John A. Matthews Matti Seppälä 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(2):343-367
Excavations were made in the colluvial deposits of seven kettleholes in a sandy esker at Kuttanen, northwestern Finnish Lapland. The Holocene history of forest fires and the associated colluvial activity initiated on the slopes of the kettleholes were reconstructed based on 131 radiocarbon dates from charcoal layers. These dates were supplemented by luminescence dating of colluvial sand layers. The first forest fires occurred ～9000 years ago following the immigration of Pinus sylvestris about 1000 years after deglaciation. Evidence of forest fires and colluvial activity increased with the density of the pine forest, reaching a maximum during the Holocene Thermal Maximum between ～8000 and 4000 cal. a BP, declining thereafter to a minimum in the last ～500 years. This multimillennial‐scale pattern corresponds with forest fires being triggered by lightning strikes during the warmest summer weather of the Holocene, which also produced heavy rain and slope wash from convective storms. The 50 forest fires identified over the Holocene indicate a long cycle in fire frequency of 1 in ～200 years, which appears to reflect the average successional recovery time of the forest. Complex interactions amongst vegetation, fire and climate may account for little or no association between 23 centennial‐ to millennial‐scale clusters of forest fires/colluvial events and Holocene temperature or precipitation anomalies. Buried podzols indicate five phases of soil formation and hence low levels of landscape disturbance. The kettleholes and their colluvial deposits therefore provide a unique geo‐ecological archive that has led to new insights into the geo‐ecological interactions that affect environmental change in the sub‐arctic landscape. 相似文献
6.
基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用1962-2012年260个常规气象观测站的逐日资料, 使用模糊信息分配方法划分我国南方出现低温雨雪冰冻天气时各气象要素的等级, 计算各等级出现的概率, 选取合理的气象要素条件建立了低温雨雪冰冻综合评估指数, 并给出了我国南方发生低温雨雪冰冻的风险区划. 结果表明:日最高气温≤6 ℃, 日最低气温≤0 ℃, 相对湿度≥80%, 日照时数≤1.3 h这一综合气象阈值条件能够合理地评估出南方地区低温雨雪冰冻事件发生的次数和持续时间. 四川省中南部、云南省东北部和贵州省西部、湖南省东部、江西省北部、安徽省、湖北省大部分地区以及陕西省的部分地区发生低温雨雪冰冻的风险等级最高. 近51 a来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻的风险虽有减小的趋势, 但近年出现重大灾害的可能性将有所增加. 相似文献
7.
Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations
in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset
of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain
range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance.
The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir
Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest
that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over
different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction
of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather
forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of
the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position
and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast
for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast
model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges
in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
8.
Microscopic charcoal from varved Santa Barbara Basin sediments was used to reconstruct a 560-yr record (A.D. 1425 to 1985) of Santa Ana fires. Comparison of large (>3750 μm2) charcoal with documented fire records in the Santa Barbara Ranger District shows that high accumulations correspond to large fires (>20,000 ha) that occurred during Santa Ana conditions. The charcoal record reconstructed a minimum of 20 large fires in the Santa Barbara region during the study period. The average time between fires shows no distinct change across three different land use periods: the Chumash period, apparently characterized by frequent burning, the Spanish/Early American period with nominal fire control, and the 20th century with active fire suppression. Pollen data support the conclusion that the fire regime has not dramatically changed during the last 500 yr. Comparison of large charcoal particle accumulation rates and precipitation reconstructed from tree rings show a strong relationship between climate and fire history, with large fires consistently occurring at the end of wet periods and the beginning of droughts. 相似文献
9.
10.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(2):101318
We present interesting application of artificial intelligence for investigating effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on 3-dimensional temperature variation across Nigeria (2°–15° E, 4°–14° N), in equatorial Africa. Artificial neural networks were trained to learn time-series temperature variation patterns using radio occultation measurements of atmospheric temperature from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC). Data used for training, validation and testing of the neural networks covered period prior to the lockdown. There was also an investigation into the viability of solar activity indicator (represented by the sunspot number) as an input for the process. The results indicated that including the sunspot number as an input for the training did not improve the network prediction accuracy. The trained network was then used to predict values for the lockdown period. Since the network was trained using pre-lockdown dataset, predictions from the network are regarded as expected temperatures, should there have been no lockdown. By comparing with the actual COSMIC measurements during the lockdown period, effects of the lockdown on atmospheric temperatures were deduced. In overall, the mean altitudinal temperatures rose by about 1.1 °C above expected values during the lockdown. An altitudinal breakdown, at 1 km resolution, reveals that the values were typically below 0.5 °C at most of the altitudes, but exceeded 1 °C at 28 and 29 km altitudes. The temperatures were also observed to drop below expected values at altitudes of 0–2 km, and 17–20 km. 相似文献
11.
Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. 相似文献
12.
HAIDEE CADD MICHAEL‐SHAWN FLETCHER MICHELA MARIANI HENDRIK HEIJNIS PATRICIA S. GADD 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(7):491-498
Tasmania's montane temperate rainforests contain some of Australia's most ancient and endemic flora. Recent landscape‐scale fires have impacted a significant portion of these rainforest ecosystems. The complex and rugged topography of Tasmania results in a highly variable influence of fire across the landscape, rendering predictions of ecosystem response to fire difficult. We assess the role of topographic variation in buffering the influence of fire in these endemic rainforest communities. We developed a new 14 000‐year (14‐ka) palaeoecological dataset from Lake Perry, southern Tasmania, and compared it to neighbouring Lake Osborne (<250 m distant) to examine how topographic variations influence fire and vegetation dynamics through time. Repeated fire events during the Holocene cause a decline in montane rainforest taxa at both sites; however, in the absence of fire, rainforest taxa are able to recover. Montane temperate rainforest taxa persisted at Lake Perry until European settlement, whilst these taxa were driven locally extinct and replaced by Eucalyptus species at Lake Osborne after 2.5 ka. Contiguous topographic fire refugia within the Lake Perry catchment probably provided areas of favourable microclimates that discouraged fire spread and supported the recovery of these montane temperate rainforests. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Wildfire is an important factor on carbon sequestration in the North American boreal biomes. Being globally important stocks of organic carbon, peatlands may be less sensitive to burning in comparison with upland forests, especially wet unforested ombrotrophic ecosystems as found in northeastern Canada. We aimed to determine if peatland fires have driven carbon accumulation patterns during the Holocene. To cover spatial variability, six cores from three peatlands in the Eastmain region of Quebec were analyzed for stratigraphic charcoal accumulation. Results show that regional Holocene peatland fire frequency was ~ 2.4 fires 1000 yr? 1, showing a gradually declining trend since 4000 cal yr BP, although inter- and intra-peatland variability was very high. Charcoal peak magnitudes, however, were significantly higher between 1400 and 400 cal yr BP, possibly reflecting higher charcoal production driven by differential climatic forcing aspects. Carbon accumulation rates generally declined towards the late-Holocene with minimum values of ~ 10 g m? 2 yr? 1 around 1500 cal yr BP. The absence of a clear correlation between peatland fire regimes and carbon accumulation indicates that fire regimes have not been a driving factor on carbon sequestration at the millennial time scale. 相似文献
14.
Along with climate change, cloud-to-ground lightning (CG)-caused forest fires are becoming increasingly pronounced. This study employed the Chinese lightning location system data (2009–2015) and worldwide lightning location network data (2005–2015) to jointly analyze CG characteristics and study the correlation between CG and climate change. The Muli county in southwest China was taken as research area. The CG number showed a clear increasing trend on yearly timescale. At the monthly timescale, CG occurred from March to October, with a peak in June. At the daily timescale, 15:00–23:00 (local time) and 00:00–05:00 both had a high CG frequency, and the peak was at 18:00–19:00. We divided CG electric current intensity into six grades and found that negative CG accounted for more than 90% of total CG and, among these, the 3rd and 4th intensity grades accounted for about 70%. To examine the spatial distribution, we focused on lightning-caused forest fires high occurrence seasons. In spring, CG distribution changed from the initial southeast to the northwest, gradually spreading to the whole area of Muli, whereas the CG area gradually moved back to the southeast in autumn. Our research suggested that minimum temperature was the most sensitive temperature to CG change. In March, the relationship between CG and minimum temperature showed a strong positive correlation. Considered jointly, we suggest the CG and related lightning-caused forest fires could increase in the future under an increased minimum temperature and decreased precipitation, especially in March. 相似文献
15.
The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using
12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various
indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at
Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather
threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI),
humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk
Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm
activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present
study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while
the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular
thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months. 相似文献
16.
Amrit Kumar Pandey Rajendra P. Mishra Surendra K. Daradur Mihail 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):1199-1210
The frequency and severity of occurrence of meteorological droughts in different climatic regions depend on regional climatic factors. This study has made an effort to explore the relationship of range of annual temperature variation at a given place with the frequency of occurrence of drought and the maximum magnitude of seasonal rainfall deficit (i.e., severity). The seasonal rainfall refers to sum of monsoon season (rainy season) rainfall in India. The monthly precipitation data of 113 years (1901–2013) for 256 stations in different parts of India have been used to estimate the return period of meteorological drought at different stations. The daily normal values of observed maximum and minimum temperatures from 40 years of records have been utilized to estimate range of temperature variation (θR) during the year at each stations. In various parts of India, the θR ranges from 10 °C in humid regions to 40 °C in arid regions. The various climatic regions have been experiencing maximum deficiency of annual rainfall ranging from 30% (humid) to 90% (arid). The results reveal that places exhibiting θR values between 40 to 30 °C face more frequent droughts with average frequency of once in 3 to once in 6 years. The occurrence of extreme and severe drought events is more frequent in the regions with higher values of θR compare to that in lesser values of θR. The regions with θR values between 30 to 25 °C mostly face severe and moderate events having the average drought return period of 6–9 years, and the occurrence of extreme droughts in these regions is rare. Furthermore, regions with θR?<?20 °C face moderate droughts only with an average return period of 14 years. This study divulges that the average return period and magnitude of deficiency of drought events have notable relationship with the range of temperature variation during the year at a given place.
相似文献17.
Cox Robin S. Hill Tiffany T. Plush Tamara Heykoop Cheryl Tremblay Crystal 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(1):213-224
Fire has become one of the main disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. It is known that elevation influences the occurrence of fire events; however, this variable has been poorly studied, although it is of particularly relevance to the Mexican topography. The objective of this research was to analyze the altitudinal distribution of forest fires in Mexico over a period of 11 years. Elevation gradients were defined based on a Digital Elevation Model and the main ecoregions of the country: (1) shrubland and tropical forests (0–1000 masl), (2) grasslands (1001–2000 masl) and (3) temperate forests (>?2000 masl). Each ecoregion was divided into Climate Research Units and the number of fires per unit was quantified. The G Getis–Ord statistic was applied in order to define the spatial patterns presented by the fire events. A relationship between the occurrence of fires and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon was also determined through a Pearson correlation. The results showed that the occurrence of fire events presented variability along elevation gradients, with elevation a determining factor in their occurrence. Gradient 3, with the highest elevation, had the greatest number of fires and also presented the largest area of fire event clustering. These results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of forest fires in Mexico and are of value to appropriate decision-making for effective fire management.
相似文献18.
At the close of the Pleistocene, fire regimes in North America changed significantly in response to climate change, megafaunal extinctions, anthropogenic burning and, possibly, even an extraterrestrial impact. On California's Channel Islands, researchers have long debated the nature of late Pleistocene “fire areas,” discrete red zones in sedimentary deposits, interpreted by some as prehistoric mammoth-roasting pits created by humans. Further research found no evidence that these red zones were cultural in origin, and two hypotheses were advanced to explain their origin: natural fires and groundwater processes. Radiocarbon dating, X-ray diffraction analysis, and identification of charcoal from six red zones on Santa Rosa Island suggest that the studied features date between ~ 27,500 and 11,400 cal yr BP and resulted from burning or heating, not from groundwater processes. Our results show that fire was a component of late Pleistocene Channel Island ecology prior to and after human colonization of the islands, with no clear evidence for increased fire frequency coincident with Paleoindian settlement, extinction of pygmy mammoths, or a proposed Younger Dryas impact event. 相似文献
19.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(17-18):2167-2184
The northwestern Great Basin lies in the transition zone between the mesic Pacific Northwest and xeric intermountain West. The paleoenvironmental history based on pollen, macroscopic charcoal, and plant macrofossils from three sites in the northwestern Great Basin was examined to understand the relationships among the modern vegetation, fire disturbance and climate. The vegetation history suggests that steppe and open forest communities were present at high elevations from ca 11,000 to 7000 cal yr BP, and were replaced by forests composed of white fir, western white pine, and whitebark pine in the late Holocene. Over the last 11,000 years, fires were more frequent in mid-elevation forests (10–25 fire episodes/1000 years) and rare in high-elevation forests (2–5 fire episodes/1000 years). Applying modern pollen–climate relationships to the fossil pollen spectra provided a means to interpret past climate changes in this region. In the past 9000 years summer temperatures decreased from 1 to 4 °C, and annual precipitation has increased 7–15%. These results indicate that the millennial-scale climate forcing driving vegetation changes can be quantified within the intermountain West in general and northwestern Great Basin in particular. In addition, fire can be considered an important component of these ecosystems, but it does not appear to be a forcing mechanism for vegetation change at the resolution of these records. 相似文献
20.
Xu Xiang-Zhou Guo Wen-Zhao Liu Ya-Kun Ma Jian-Zhong Wang Wen-Long Zhang Hong-Wu Gao Hang 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1393-1416
China has a serious wildfire problem with a large number of fires in the south of the country especially during the winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) seasons. This study focused on identifying the causes of variability in inter-annual fire seasons. The relationship between fires and climatic parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) was evaluated on annual and seasonal (winter, spring) time scales. Certain other parameters (moisture balance, surface moisture balance, coefficient of variability of daily precipitation and ratio between evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) were also calculated and related to fire variability for both time scales. Inter-annual time scale was found not to be strong enough to explain fire activity in the region; however, inter-seasonal fire variability showed significant correlation with potential evapotranspiration and with the ratio between evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration. The relationship and relative variability between evapotranspiration and the potential evapotranspiration were found to have important effect on inter-seasonal fire variability as compared to the other parameters studied, and link fire activity in the region to large-scale climatic systems. 相似文献