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1.
There is less than a decade left to accomplish the goal of ending global poverty by 2030. This paper investigates global poverty dynamics and finds a shift in the world's poverty gravity center from South Asia to Africa in the period 1990–2015. Sub-Saharan Africa has become the main battlefield for poverty reduction in the world. Global poverty reduction has been accompanied by political instability and local conflicts, economic marginalization, rural decline, and natural hazards as well as climate change which are jointly impacting the least developed areas and making the world's poverty reduction vulnerable to external shocks. The "STAR" scheme, including maintaining political stability, promoting targeted poverty alleviation, implementing regular assessments of poverty reduction initiatives, and revitalizing rural and poverty-stricken areas, is proposed with specific measures to enhance the resilience capacity of poverty alleviation in the world. 相似文献
2.
2000—2014年全球粮食安全格局的时空演化及影响因素 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
粮食安全是实现可持续发展整体目标的基础,由于“至2015年使饥饿人口比例减半”的千年发展目标并未如期实现,使得2030年零饥饿目标的实现面临更大挑战。鉴于此,亟需从全球粮食安全格局的时空演化中寻找全球粮食安全问题的内在原因。在建立粮食安全评价因子数据集和粮食安全影响因素数据集的基础上,运用多指标综合评价法评价2000—2014年172个国家的粮食安全水平;进而通过空间自相关分析研究全球粮食安全格局的空间模式与变化特征;在此基础上运用多元非线性回归方法分析粮食安全格局的影响因素。结果表明：① 全球粮食安全格局呈现出社会经济发展与粮食安全水平“高—高集聚、低—低集聚”的空间模式,其中高值区主要分布在除东欧以外的欧洲区域、北美洲、大洋洲和东亚部分国家,低值区主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚和西亚地区、以及东南亚部分国家;② 在99%的置信水平上,欧洲和撒哈拉以南非洲分别是全球粮食安全格局的热点和冷点,在非集聚区,海地和朝鲜等国存在长期粮食不安全问题;③ 全球粮食安全格局总体稳定,但极不安全和不安全组的内部变化明显,粮食安全水平波动最大的国家也是粮食最不安全的国家;④ 年平均气温、人均国内生产总值、获得洁净用水的人口占比、政治稳定与无暴力程度是全球粮食安全格局的主要影响因素。研究表明,自2000年以来,全球粮食安全状况有所改善,但2013年出现趋势性逆转。受气候变化、居民购买力、健康卫生水平和政治经济稳定性影响,全球粮食安全始终波动不稳,局部区域目前仍面临突出的粮食安全问题。为此,建议制定基于粮食供给、食物获取、食物利用和政治稳定性四大支柱的粮食安全战略,并通过全球乡村振兴策略来推动粮食安全建设,同时逐步引入城市农业等多元化生产方式,使高度城市化区域建立起更富弹性的食物系统。 相似文献
3.
为分析25 a 来非洲旱灾的时间变化趋势及其对各国人口健康的风险,利用1990―2014 年国际灾害数据库（EM-DAT）数据对非洲干旱灾害发生次数、百万人口受影响人数等进行统计,分析其年际变化规律;基于灾害风险评估危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、抗灾能力4 要素,建立非洲旱灾健康风险评估模型,并结合非洲旱灾的主要健康效应,建立多指标综合评价体系,确定权重,对各国旱灾健康风险进行定量评估。结果表明：1）受全球气候变化和大尺度环流异常的影响,非洲干旱灾害发生次数呈波动上升趋势。2）霍乱、营养不良作为旱灾的主要健康效应,主要与旱灾发生频次、影响人数、人口总量、获改善饮用水人口比例、获改善卫生设施人口比例、15 岁以下儿童比例、农村人口比例、政府稳定等自然、社会经济因素有关。3）旱灾发生频次较高的地区危险性较大,对人体健康威胁较严重,而人口总量较大的国家对旱灾暴露量较大,增加了健康风险。改水改厕可提高饮
用水的卫生条件,既减小霍乱与其他水传疾病的流行,也对减少营养不良率起着至关重要的作用。政府稳定度高是国家防灾、抗灾能力建设的基本保障,而农村人口比例、15 岁以下儿童比例为粮食不安全的主要脆弱人群,受灾害健康威胁相对较大。4）从西非马里、尼日尔向东延伸至东非之角的索马里,再向南至南非,因旱灾发生频率高、人口暴露量大、脆弱性大且应灾能力相对较弱,成为旱灾健康风险较高地区。 相似文献
4.
生计安全研究的可视化分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
以Web of science 核心库中1991~2016年间收录主题为“livelihood security”的文献为基础,应用CiteSpace软件,采取突现词分析、关键词共现分析、文献共被引分析等方法对生计安全研究进行可视化分析。研究发现,干旱、健康、妇女、艾滋病、粮食安全、难民等是生计安全研究的前沿领域;生计安全研究热点主要包括生计结果类、生态环境类、生计策略类和重点地区类;生计安全研究的知识基础主要包括粮食安全、海洋资源、气候变化适应性等研究领域;从研究内容来看,中国生计安全研究主要包括自然资源与粮食安全、自然灾害与生计安全、快速城镇化与生计安全、气候变化与生计安全等4个方面。 相似文献
5.
The future impact of climate change will be a considerable challenge for all countries, and in particular Small Island Developing States. Challenges related to climate vulnerability and tenure security are exacerbated in areas of rapid urbanisation and urban growth, with highly vulnerable informal settlements a common result. Drawing on research into vulnerable informal settlements in the Greater Suva Urban Area in Fiji, this research seeks to better understand perceptions of climate vulnerability, adaptive capacity, tenure security and options for resettlement. This research confirmed that there are important linkages at the settlement level between tenure security, perception of vulnerability, and people’s ability to adapt. Two critical factors in any decision to resettle people are (i) providing tenure security for all people affected, and (ii) considering livelihood impacts as a result of resettlement. We conclude that vulnerability, tenure security and resettlement decisions are complex issues and specific to individual settlements, and to specific households within settlements. 相似文献
6.
In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate. 相似文献
7.
中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing
the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve
for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based
on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions
without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account
for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based
measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food
security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to
the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in
China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including
Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic
zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern
China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and
Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern
coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which
57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate. 相似文献
8.
In West Africa, plant diversity is threatened by future climate and land use change, however, synergistic forecasts for this area are lacking to date. We investigated the impact and the interplay of future (2050) climate and land use change on plant diversity in Burkina Faso, which covers the major bioclimatic gradient in West Africa. Thus, regions with different levels of species richness can be investigated. The LandSHIFT model was adapted for this study to derive novel future (2050) land use simulations. One-class support vector machines (SVMs) were performed with these land use simulations together with current and future (2050) climate projections at a 0.1° resolution. Our modeling results show that the flora of Burkina Faso will be primarily negatively impacted by future climate and land use changes. However, we found contrasting latitudinal patterns. The more humid regions in Southern Burkina Faso would be more affected in terms of species loss than the Sahel. Climate change is more important than land use change under the assumption of technological stagnation in the agricultural sector. Our results suggest that, in general, the plant diversity in dry and humid regions of the tropics might respond differently to climate and land use change. 相似文献
9.
Philip Antwi-Agyei Evan D.G. Fraser Andrew J. DougillLindsay C. Stringer Elisabeth Simelton 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):324-334
This study evaluates new multi-scale, multi-indicator methods for assessing the vulnerability of crop production to drought at a national and regional scale. It does this by identifying differences across and within ten regions of Ghana, a country that faces many climate and crop production challenges typical of sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, we illustrate how a quantitative national and regional study is a critical first step in assessing differences in the drought sensitivity of food production systems and show how such an assessment enables the formulation of more targeted district and community level research that can explore the drivers of vulnerability and change on a local-scale. Finally, we propose methodological steps that can improve drought sensitivity and vulnerability assessments in dynamic dryland farming systems where there are multiple drivers of change and thresholds of risk that vary in both space and time. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana has discernible geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions being most vulnerable. Partly, this is because these regions have the lowest adaptive capacity due to low socioeconomic development and have economies based on rain-fed agriculture. Within these regions we find considerable differences between districts that can be explained only partly by socioeconomic variables with further community and household-scale research required to explain the causes of differences in vulnerability status. Our results highlight that national and regional scale multi-indicator vulnerability assessments are a vital (and often ignored) first step in assessing vulnerability across a large area. These inputs can guide both local-level research and also demonstrate the need for region-specific policies to reduce vulnerability and to enhance drought preparedness within dryland farming communities. 相似文献
10.
Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence. 相似文献
11.
Land degradation and climate change in South Africa 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This paper considers the potential impact of future climate change on the nature and extent of land degradation in South Africa. The basis of the assessment is the comprehensive review published by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEA&T) as a contribution to the South African effort in respect of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The DEA&T report is founded on information collated from 34 workshops, one in each of the agricultural regions of South Africa, involving some 453 participants consisting mainly of agricultural extension officers and soil conservation technicians. This analysis reveals that land degradation is underpinned by poverty and its structural roots in colonial and apartheid political planning. Nevertheless, future climate change represents a key challenge to the developing economies of countries like South Africa. Regionally downscaled models predicting the nature and degree of rainfall changes in the future are used to assess the possible impact of future change on the South African land degradation situation. It is concluded that the most severely degraded areas of the country, including large areas of the former 'homeland' states, are likely to become even more susceptible under predicted climate change scenarios. 相似文献
12.
LI Fadong LENG Peifang ZHANG Qiuying SONG Shuai QIAO Yunfeng GU Congke ZHANG Qian WU Liang Mulubrhan Balehegn Dagne Mojo ZHU Nong ZHAO Xin 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2018,9(3):237-249
Food security and sustainable agricultural development are the hot issues of scientific research, especially after the population affected by hunger surprisingly increased in 2016. Long-lasting and recurrent famines caused by natural disasters and wars have afflicted Ethiopia. Unlike Ethiopia, which is still struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency, China managed to quickly become food self-sufficient at a rapid speed, despite the fact that it also faced the same challenges of famine over the last century. In the backdrop of differing environmental and socio-political challenges the two countries face, comparing the similarities and differences between the two countries will yield important lessons and insights for Ethiopia to follow to achieve food self-sufficiency. Here, the progress towards food security in Ethiopia and China is presented to quantitatively compare the gap of agricultural production between both countries. We found that food production in Ethiopia is heavily constrained by drought, soil degradation, climate change, out-dated agricultural production technologies, and poverty. According to these challenges, we examined corresponding responses in China to propose solutions for achieving food self-sufficiency in Ethiopia, given the realities of its unique national situation. 相似文献
13.
14.
南京市不同社会群体的贫困集聚度、贫困特征及其决定因素 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
基于2005年在南京市进行的大规模家庭户调查,检查城市不同社会群体的贫困发生率和贫困集聚度,并分析不同贫困群体的特征及贫困的决定因素。1370个调查案例被分为三种类型:无失业人员的城市家庭、有失业人员的城市家庭、农民工家庭。研究采用主观感知和客观测度两种方法分析不同城市群体的贫困发生率和贫困集聚度。城市贫困群体的特征分析集中于其日常生活的最基本元素,包括人口学特征、社会权利、住房条件、邻里关系和社会网络等。研究发现,有失业人员的城市家庭与农民工家庭有着相似的贫困发生率,后者更遭受多重不利。在贫困决定因素方面,城市家庭的贫困主要取决于不利的个人和家庭特征因素,而农民工家庭的贫困很大程度上与制度歧视相联系,农民工不仅在生活条件上而且在社会保障方面仍无法真正融入城市社会。 相似文献
15.
基于EPIC模型的黄淮海夏玉米旱灾风险评价 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
玉米是中国最主要的粮食作物之一,因其较高的需水量,受气候影响,极易遭受旱灾。因此,以黄淮海夏播玉米区为例,从风险的角度进行玉米旱灾评价,对于农业旱灾预警和保障国家粮食安全具有重要的现实和指导意义。在全面收集研究区气象、土壤、土地利用、农气观测等资料的基础上,基于农业旱灾风险评价的概念框架“致灾因子危险性H评价(Hazard)-承灾体脆弱性曲线Vc 评价(Vulnerability Curve)-作物减产风险性R评价(Risk)”,引入基于物理过程的作物模型EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calulator),采用作物模型模拟和数字制图等技术,分别从全生育期和分生育期角度,对黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾风险的时空分布进行了定量评价。结果表明：在2、5、10 和20 年一遇致灾水平下,黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾减产风险总体呈现出从西北向东南方向递减的趋势,这主要由气候环境和下垫面的地形地貌条件所决定。20 年一遇水平时,产量损失风险的高值区(R ≥ 0.5) 集中分布在冀北高原山地和山东省中南部地区,占黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米总面积的7.63%。黄淮海夏播玉米区成灾风险较高的生育期：拔节期-抽雄期、抽雄期-乳熟期、乳熟期-成熟期应加强防范。研究可为高风险区和高风险时段的玉米旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和科技支撑。 相似文献
16.
Root GP 《International journal of population geography : IJPG》1999,5(2):117-132
This study examined the subregional spatial distribution of child mortality risk (CMR) in sub-Saharan Africa. Data for maps were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys in the 1980s and 1990s for 95 provinces. Two distinct regions are identified: West Africa and a belt of countries spanning East to Southern Africa. Some countries are missing from the analysis. CMR was higher in West Africa. East/Southern Africa had the following patterns: low mortality in Central/South and North/West provinces of Namibia, Botswana, and all of Zimbabwe, except Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces (adjoining areas with moderately low mortality); low mortality in the Kenya/Tanzania highlands, with the Rift Valley, Central, Eastern, Nairobi, and northern highlands of Tanzania (adjacent provinces with moderately low or moderate mortality); high mortality in northern Zambia and Malawi (adjacent provinces with moderately high mortality); and moderate or moderately high mortality in the Lake Victoria basin and western provinces. West Africa had south/north or coastal/interior patterns. Coastal and southern provinces had low or moderately low mortality, while interior provinces had high mortality. Regression models indicate that the spatial patterns in West Africa were due to socioeconomic differences. In East/Southern Africa, mortality differences were due to differences in intensity of malaria transmission. 相似文献
17.
18.
Eric F. Lambin Sarah Ann Lise D’haen Ole Mertz Jonas Østergaard Nielsen Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83
In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization. 相似文献
19.
贫困具有多维属性,根据不同社会群体和背景从多维视角定义贫困已成为贫困问题研究的共识。依据Alkire-Foster多维贫困框架,拓展精准扶贫的“两不愁,三保障”识别标准,建立了涵盖教育、健康、居住、生活和收入指标的海南省农户多维贫困评估指标体系,基于海南省70个乡镇、134个贫困村3924户入户调查数据,采用双重临界值法评估了农户及村域多维贫困状况,进而运用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)模型,分析了村域多维贫困影响因素的空间分异。结果显示,调查农户多维贫困率达18.22%,多维贫困程度严重的村多维贫困发生率不一定高,“两不愁、三保障”及收入指标对多维贫困指数的贡献率低。中、西部连片贫困地区多维贫困主要表现为较差的资产状况、不清洁的炊事燃料、较高的家庭成员患病率和较低的家庭成员最高学历。GWR模型分析表明,作为多维贫困最重要的影响因素,户主性别、户主受教育水平、女性劳动力占比和抚养比4个变量估计系数的空间分异明显。总体上,女性户主和低学历户主为主的地区倾向于更易发生多维贫困,二者的影响分别表现为从东到西、从北到南有所增强。女性劳动力占比为负向影响,抚养比为正向影响,呈现出自北向南增强的趋势,体现了海南贫困地区劳动力弱、女性相对更勤劳等典型地域特征。 相似文献
20.
DEVKOTA Shiva SHRESTHA Uttam Babu POUDEL Sanjeev CHAUDHARY Ram Prasad 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(6):1030-1036
To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thereby meet the post 2020 global biodiversity targets and increase resilience to climate change, nature-based approaches such as ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is suggested as a promising and integrated adaptation strategy. EbA comprises adaptation strategies that value the role of ecosystems in reducing social vulnerability to climate change. Among the different biological groups on earth, fungi play not only an important role to maintain the biogeochemical cycle/nutrient cycle in ecosystems (supporting and regulating services), but also contribute to the socio-economic and cultural benefits of societies (provisioning and cultural services). Here, we present our knowledge and scientific understanding on how these neglected groups of biodiversity-fungi are crucial for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approach based on our field experience, review and associated expertise on caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis), and other wild mushrooms found in Nepal. Several species of fungi are used by local communities as food, medicines, and environmental income. Fungi are important sources of household income for mountain communities in Nepal providing a cushion during shocks and disasters and supporting food security, health care, education and building shelter. For the holistic EbA approach, it is essential to strengthen local institutions as well as indigenous local knowledge which could be an important policy intervention for the identification, conservation, and sustainable management of ecologically, socially and economically useful fungal species. 相似文献