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1.
青藏高原地震的震源深度及其构造意义 总被引：16，自引：4，他引：16
在本研究的前一项工作中，根据ＷＷＳＳＮ的长周期无震体波记录，采用广义反演技术，确定了１９６６年至１９８０年期间发生在西藏高原及其周围地区的１１个主要地壳地震和地震矩张量，同时得到了震源时间函数和震源深度。所分析的地震具有较浅的震源深度，且均分布于上部地壳范围内，本文根据上述结果，结合其它逐个测定的１９６４年至１９８６年发生在青藏高原的７８个中强地震的震源深度的结果，讨论了青藏高原地震的震源深度分布 相似文献
2.
In the previous work of the present study,moment tensors of 11 major earthquakes in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding region from 1966 to 1980 are estimated by generalized inversion technique.The seismic source time function and focal depth are immediately determined in the inversion.The results indicated that all earthquakes investigated here are shallow events within the upper crust.The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of the distribution of focal depths of earthquakes in and near the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from the above result,combining the focal depths of 78 significant earthquakes from 1964 to 1986,which are relocated individually by other authors,as well as to discuss its tectonic implication. 相似文献
3.
—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua. 相似文献
4.
青藏高原整体隆升,构造运动与介质变形强烈,然而由于地震观测数据不足,青藏高原内部上地壳各向异性研究一直是一个空白.本研究使用西藏地区的地震台网(2009年5月—2017年5月)的观测资料,利用剪切波分裂研究青藏高原上地壳地震各向异性特征.由于青藏高原固定地震台站分布稀疏,可用于进行剪切波分裂研究的近场地震事件记录稀少,本研究采用地震事件的单台定位技术,对公开的地震目录里没有震源深度数据的地震事件进行震源位置约束,并引入微震模板匹配定位方法,对连续地震波形进行检索,识别出地震目录里遗漏的新的微震(小地震)事件波形.微震识别获得的新地震事件记录是地震目录里报告的地震事件记录的大约6倍,用于补充研究区的剪切波分裂数据分析.通过数据分析,对比快波偏振方向,证实微震识别获得的数据极大地增加了有效数据的数量,提高了结果的可靠性.研究结果表明,雅鲁藏布江缝合带与班公—怒江缝合带之间的拉萨地块东部地区,台站的快剪切波(快波)偏振方向主要受区域应力场影响,快波偏振方向主要是NS或NNE方向,表明了区域最大主压应力方向;但个别地震台站(当雄台)快波偏振方向受原地主压应力影响,其快波偏振方向既不平行于断裂走向也不平行于区域主压应力方向,揭示出地壳介质的局部变形导致的局部应力方向不同于青藏块体里的其他地区.研究区西部的改则、普兰和研究区北部的双湖,快波偏振方向显示与断裂等构造走向一致的特点.研究区东部的昌都和察隅,快波偏振方向除了与断裂走向(或构造线)一致,还与地表运动的方向相同,揭示了青藏块体东部的深部物质可能的运移方向.这个现象虽然还需更多的研究证实,但这个发现的重要启示是,地震各向异性结合地表变形可用于探讨地壳深部物质的运动. 相似文献
5.
观测的证据充分表明，印度——欧亚的缝合带雅鲁藏布江上存在自南向北的地壳俯冲带，它穿过莫霍面，深度大约达到100 km. 喜马拉雅中可能存在多重的地壳俯冲. 它们有别于海洋碰撞时所产生的整个岩石圈俯冲. 作者观测到雅鲁藏布江以北上地幔的板片构造，它可以解释为印度向欧亚俯冲时上地幔岩石圈的痕迹. 它们说明与洋——陆的俯冲不同，印度向欧亚俯冲时，地壳与上地幔岩石圈出现拆层现象. 综合现有的地壳上地幔构造，显示在不同地质年代中，印度与欧亚之间产生自南向北以及自北向南相反方向的俯冲，而且俯冲带周围出现某些速度异常区. 相似文献
6.
本研究使用中国数字地震台网（CDSN）（2009—2016）走时数据开展青藏高原地壳地震波速度三维层析成像研究,获得分辨率达到1°×1°×20 km的青藏高原地壳S波三维速度结构和泊松比分布.结果表明,分布在可可西里和羌塘北部的高钾质和钾质火山岩带,其上地壳到下地壳都存在S波波速扰动负异常和高泊松比.说明第三纪青藏高原隆升过程中,由于大陆碰撞使三叠纪的东昆仑缝合带重新破裂,造成大量壳幔混合熔融物质上涌和火山喷发,进而揭示了青藏高原北部新生代火山岩的存在与青藏高原的形成和隆升密切相关;青藏高原新生代裂谷位于中下地壳S波速度扰动负异常带的两侧,裂谷带之下的中下地壳泊松比减小到0.22以下.裂谷带之下中下地壳的S波速异常分布和泊松比值可以推断青藏高原新生代裂谷深达中地壳底部,这个推论与密度扰动三维成像的相关结论一致.青藏高原S波速度和泊松比在下地壳至壳幔边界随深度产生急剧变化,说明地壳内部发生了大规模的层间拆离和水平剪切;青藏高原东构造结之下泊松比高达0.29~0.33,S波速度扰动为负异常,推断东构造结下方地壳主要由坚硬的蛇纹石化橄榄岩组成;青藏高原中下地壳S波速负异常区范围大面积扩大,地壳底部几乎被S波速低值区全部覆盖.下地壳S波异常分布特点可能反映下地壳管道流的影响. 相似文献
7.
1999～2000年从青海玛沁到陕西榆林，横跨青藏高原东北缘和鄂尔多斯布设了一条由47台宽频带数字地震仪组成的长约1000km的流动地震台阵观测剖面.利用记录到的远震体波波形资料和接收函数方法获得了剖面下0～100km深度的地壳和上地幔S波速度结构.结果表明，沿观测剖面地壳结构显示了明显的分块特征; 地壳厚度自东向西由40km增加到64km左右；在海原地震带下方和西秦岭断裂以西到日月山断裂之间的区域Moho间断面结构复杂；在1920年海原震区及其西侧，上地壳存在明显的低速层，在该地区的绝大部分地震分布在该低速层东边界偏向高速区一侧；祁连山东缘Moho面有约4km的深度间断，壳内向西逐渐减薄的低速层内有大量微震发生，沿祁连山的逆冲加走滑的构造运动在深度上已经穿透了Moho面；在玛沁断裂和日月山断裂之间，上地壳存在厚度很大的低速层，同时该区域下地壳也明显加厚.研究结果表明，青藏高原东北缘与鄂尔多斯地块之间的过渡带地壳变形强烈，地壳结构较为破碎，这与该地区地震频发相一致. 相似文献
8.
Lane R. Johnson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(8):1641-1668
At The Geysers geothermal reservoir in northern California, evidence strongly suggests that activities associated with production of electric power cause an increase in the number of small earthquakes. First-degree dynamic moment tensors are used to investigate the relationship between induced earthquakes and injection of water into a well as part of a controlled experiment in the northwest Geysers. The estimation of dynamic moment tensors in the complex shallow crust at The Geysers is challenging, so the method is described in detail with particular attention given to the uncertainty in the results. For seismic events in the moment magnitude range of 0.9–2.8, spectral moduli of dynamic moment tensors are reliably recovered in the frequency range of 1–100 Hz, but uncertainty in the associated spectral phases limits their use to a few simple results. A number of different static moment tensors are investigated, with the preferred one obtained from parameters of a model fitted to the spectral modulus of the dynamic moment tensor. Moment tensors estimated for a group of 20 earthquakes exhibit a range of source mechanisms, with over half having significant isotropic parts of either positive or negative sign. Corner frequencies of the isotropic part of the moment tensor are about 40 % larger than the average of the deviatoric moment tensor. Some spatial patterns are present in source mechanisms, with earthquakes closely related in space tending to have similar mechanisms, but at the same time, some nearby earthquakes have very different mechanisms. Tensional axes of displacement in the source regions are primarily horizontal, while the pressure axes range from near horizontal to vertical. Injection of water into the well in the center of the study area clearly causes an increase in the number of earthquakes per day, but an effect upon source mechanisms is not evident. 相似文献
9.
2013年8月28日和31日四川得荣县与云南德钦县、香格里拉县交界地区分别发生MS5.2和MS5.9地震.这两次主震连同截至2013年12月31日发生的589次M≥1.5余震,构成香格里拉—得荣震群序列.该序列的震区位于青藏高原东南隅横断山脉的三江构造带地区,地处川滇菱形块体西边界,当地有多组交错的活动断裂.为了了解这一震群序列的震源构造特征以及震区的构造动力环境,我们利用区域地震台网的数字波形资料以及中国地震台网中心的有关震相数据,建立了分区速度结构模型;使用Loc3D(川滇走时表定位软件)重新测定该震群序列中10次MS4.0地震的位置,利用双差法对该序列中的更小地震进行重新定位;同时,采用地震矩张量的时间域反演方法获得10次MS4.0地震震源机制的矩张量解.重新定位结果显示:香格里拉—得荣震群序列的绝大部分地震发生在NW向德钦—中甸—大具断裂中段7~15km深度的基底层,整个序列的震源分布长度约17km,横向宽度约7km;震源分布在横剖面表现为负花状构造的断裂带内,其中,NE倾向的主干活动断裂及其北东侧一条SW倾向的次级断裂分别控制该负花状构造的两个侧边.本研究反演得到的震源机制解显示:该序列所有MS4.0地震均是德钦—中甸—大具断裂中段在近S-N向—NNE-SSW向拉张作用下的正断层作用的结果,右旋走滑作用并不明显.这与该断裂晚第四纪活动的地质地貌特征—右旋走滑为主、正断倾滑为辅—并不吻合.这种不一致可能暗示震区的现今构造运动与以往有所不同,为进一步研究青藏亚板块东南隅与缅甸亚板块以及印度板块交界地区的现今构造动力学提出了问题与线索. 相似文献
10.
前人研究表明喜马拉雅造山带西部出露的拉昂错蛇绿混杂岩为新特提斯洋壳岩石圈的一部分,代表了新特提斯洋的关闭及其随后大洋岩石圈物质的仰冲.鉴于拉昂错蛇绿岩的构造演化历史尚不明确,前期对于拉昂错蛇绿岩带构造归属的研究主要基于岩石学研究和地表地质调查等,缺少精细的深部地壳结构进行运动学指示,因此证明拉昂错蛇绿混杂岩体的构造归属并非易事.本次研究中,我们对前期获得的一条南北向延伸穿过雅鲁藏布江缝合带和喜马拉雅造山带西部拉昂错蛇绿岩体的112 km长的深反射地震剖面进行了构造解释.高分辨率的深反射地震剖面清晰地显示了喜马拉雅山脉西部造山带内发育良好的地壳双冲构造几何结构,该地壳尺度双冲构造将印度俯冲地壳物质从底部运移到上部.同时,地震剖面还显示拉昂错蛇绿岩体和雅鲁藏布江蛇绿岩体在上地壳深处呈倾向相反但底部相通的结构构造.结合前人的岩石学/地球化学/地表地质研究成果,我们认为拉昂错蛇绿岩体为雅鲁藏布江缝合带蛇绿岩体的一部分.印度俯冲前缘的双冲构造折返将深部物质带到地表过程的同时,还将部分雅鲁藏布江蛇绿混杂岩携带至南侧距主缝合带位置大约20 km的拉昂错蛇绿岩区域. 相似文献
11.
首次基于2017—2019年西藏自治区区域台网27个宽频带固定台站记录的757次地震的波形资料,利用反双台法开展了青藏高原南部地区1 Hz的Lg波Q值层析成像研究。研究中采用3.5—2.4 km/s的速度窗截取了1 981条Lg波,计算得到13 543条路径上的Q值,测试了1°×1°和0.5°×0.5°网格下的棋盘格恢复情况,得到了0.5°×0.5°分辨率的Lg波Q0值层析成像。反演结果显示:青藏高原南部地壳整体的Lg波呈高衰减、低Q值,与P波速度负异常、地热分布及东部的两条裂谷系对应良好,因此推断青藏高原南部地壳存在广泛的熔融物质;两条可能存在的流体-熔融物质通道中,主通道位于亚东—谷露裂谷与桑日—错那裂谷之间,副通道沿雅鲁藏布江缝合带分流而出。此外,还对亚东—谷露裂谷两侧熔融物质的分布差异予以分析,结果表明,印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞前端存在不同的动力学演化模式,亚东—谷露裂谷以西符合缩短增厚理论,以东符合“水泵”模式。 相似文献
12.
对鲜水河断裂带重磁异常进行向上延拓,通过计算观测面高度异常与延拓后异常之间的相关系数得出最佳向上延拓高度,该延拓高度所对应的延拓结果即为研究区构造背景产生的异常值。向上延拓结果显示布格重力异常值沿鲜水河断裂带自北西向南东逐渐增大,反映出下地壳底边界沿该方向呈升高趋势,可能由青藏高原地壳软弱物质 “东向逃逸” 所致。化极后ΔT磁异常延拓结果表明鲜水河断裂带南东段的康定—石棉以东为强磁性刚性基底。以鲜水河断裂带为分界的不同地块之间基底岩石及地层物性的不同是断裂带南北磁性差异的主导原因。对鲜水河断裂带两侧各约50 km范围内地震的震源深度进行统计,经投影至剖面及线性拟合求出鲜水河断裂带的三维几何形状。结果表明鲜水河断裂带总体倾向南西,倾角近乎直立,范围约为57°—88°。 相似文献
13.
Apparent stress and stress drop for intraplate earthquakes and tectonic stress in the plates 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The magnitude of shear stress in the lithosphere is bounded from below by the apparent stress and stress drop during intraplate earthquakes. Apparent stresses and stress drops for a number of mid-plate earthquakes are calculated from the earthquake magnitude, SH wave amplitude spectra, and estimates of the length of the fault zone. Apparent stresses vary between 0.1 and 2 bars, ifm
b
is used as a measure of seismic energy, and stress drops lie between 2 and 70 bars. There is no systematic difference in either apparent stress or stress drop between these intraplate events and typical plate boundary earthquakes. These bounds on intraplate shear stresses are consistent with the inference from current models of plate tectonic driving forces that regional stress differences in the plates are typically on the order of 100 bars. The highest stress drops measured for midplate earthquakes under this model represent nearly total release of local tectonic stress. 相似文献
14.
Stress drop assessment of the August 8, 2017, Jiuzhaigou earthquake sequence and its tectonic implications* 
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下载免费PDF全文 By using a broadband Lg attenuation model developed for the Tibetan Plateau, we isolate source terms by removing attenuation and site effects from the observed Lg-wave displacement spectra of the M7.0 earthquake that occurred on August 8, 2017, in Jiuzhaigou, China, and its aftershock sequence. Thus, the source parameters, including the scalar seismic moment, corner frequency and stress drop, of these events can be further estimated. The estimated stress drops vary from 47.1 kPa to 7149.6 kPa, with a median value of 59.4 kPa and most values falling between 50 kPa and 75 kPa. The estimated stress drops show significant spatial variations. Lower stress drops were mainly found close to the mainshock and on the seismogenic fault plane with large coseismic slip. In contrast, the highest stress drop was 7.1 MPa for the mainshock, and relatively large stress drops were also found for aftershocks away from the major seismogenic fault and at depths deeper than the zone with large coseismic slip. By using a statistical method, we found self-similarity among some of the aftershocks with a nearly constant stress drop. In contrast, the stress drop increased with the seismic moment for other aftershocks. The amount of stress released during earthquakes is a fundamental characteristic of the earthquake rupture process. As such, the stress drop represents a key parameter for improving our understanding of earthquake source physics. 相似文献
15.
本文利用云南及周边区域地震台网2010—2016年记录到的近震资料,采用双差层析成像方法进行地震重定位并获得了青藏高原东南缘的三维地壳速度结构。结果显示:重定位后的震源位置精度得到明显提高,震源主要分布于20 km深度以上的中上地壳;地震分布与速度结构存在一定的相关性,大多数地震发生在中上地壳的低速异常区内以及高、低速异常区域之间;研究区上地壳速度结构存在明显的横向不均匀性,其速度异常与地表地形及地质特征密切相关;中下地壳分布着两条主要的低速带,一条沿着安宁河断裂、小江断裂分布在川滇菱形地块的东侧;另一条主要分布在川西北次级地块内,并穿过丽江断裂向南延伸,推测这两条低速带可能是青藏高原中下地壳物质向南逃逸的两条通道。 相似文献
16.
Two large shallow earthquakes occurred in 1942 along the South American subduction zone inclose proximity to subducting oceanic ridges: The 14 May event occurred near the subducting Carnegie ridge off the coast of Ecuador, and the 24 August event occurred off the coast of southwestern Peru near the southern flank of the subducting Nazca ridge. Source parameters for these for these two historic events have been determined using long-periodP waveforms,P-wave first motions, intensities and local tsunami data.We have analyzed theP waves for these two earthquakes to constrain the focal mechanism, depth, source complexity and seismic moment. Modeling of theP waveform for both events yields a range of acceptable focal mechanisms and depths, all of which are consistent with underthrusting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The source time function for the 1942 Ecuador event has one simple pulse of moment release with a duration of 22 suconds, suggesting that most of the moment release occurred near the epicenter. The seismic moment determined from theP waves is 6–8×1020N·m, corresponding ot a moment magnitude of 7.8–7.9. The reported location of the maximum intensities (IX) for this event is south of the main shock epicenter. The relocated aftershcks are in an area that is approximately 200 km by 90 km (elongated parallel to the trench) with the majority of aftershocks north of the epicenter. In contrast, the 1942 Peru event has a much longer duration and higher degree of complexity than the Ecuador earthquake, suggesting a heterogeneous rupture. Seismic moment is released in three distinct pulses over approximately 74 seconds; the largest moment release occurs 32 seconds after rupture initiation. the seismic moment as determined from theP waves for the 1942 Peru event is 10–25×1020N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of 7.9–8.2. Aftershock locations reported by the ISS occur over a broad area surrounding the main shock. The reported locations of the maximum intensities (IX) are concentrated south of the epicenter, suggesting that at least part of the rupture was to the south.We have also examined great historic earthquakes along the Colombia-Ecuador and Peru segments of the South American subduction zone. We find that the size and rupture length of the underthrusting earthquakes vary between successive earthquake cycles. This suggests that the segmentation of the plate boundary as defined by earthquakes this century is not constant. 相似文献
17.
大地电磁探测结果显示,青藏高原的中下地壳普遍存在大规模的高导层,其电阻率低于10 Ωm,远低于稳定构造区地壳的平均电阻率值.通过对可能形成地壳内大规模低阻异常地质原因的分析认为,青藏高原地壳中的高导层不可能是由金属矿、石墨层或者单纯的含盐水流体引起的,而很可能是由于地壳岩石的部分熔融或者是部分熔融与含盐水流体共同导致的.这些高导层的形成是与板块运动等动力学过程密切相关的.地壳内的高导层可能是印度板块和亚洲板块俯冲的电性痕迹,其成因与板块俯冲过程中由于摩擦生热导致的岩石部分熔融和脱水作用有关,也可能与岩石圈拆沉造成幔源物质上涌有关.沿高原内主要缝合带均存在东西向连续分布的大规模高导体,有可能是青藏高原下地壳物质向东"逃逸"的证据;其中班公-怒江缝合带可能是最重要的物质运移"通道". 相似文献
18.
Lane R. Johnson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(8):1625-1640
The results of a previous study on source mechanisms of small earthquakes at the Geysers geothermal reservoir in northern California are used to investigate an extended crack model for seismic events. The seismic events are characterized by their first-degree moment tensors and interpreted in terms of a model that is a combination of a shear crack and wing cracks. Solutions to both forward and inverse problems are obtained that can be used with either dynamic or static moment tensors. The model contains failure criteria, explains isotropic parts that are commonly observed in induced earthquakes, and produces estimates of crack dimensions and maximum amount of slip. Effects of fluid pressure are easily incorporated into the model as an effective stress. The model is applied to static moment tensors of 20 earthquakes that occurred during a controlled injection project in the northwest Geysers. For earthquakes in the moment magnitude range of 0.9–2.8, the model predicts shear crack radii in the range of 10–150 m, wing crack lengths in the range of 2–25 m, and maximum slips in the range of 0.3–1.1 cm. Only limited results are obtained for the time-dependence of the earthquake process, but the model is consistent with corner frequencies of the isotropic part of the moment tensor being greater than the deviatoric part and waveforms of direct p waves that become more emergent for larger events. 相似文献
19.
本文采用欧拉反褶积、场源参数成像(SPI)、场源边界提取(SED)、莫霍面反演、地壳三维可视化等多源方法,对青藏高原东北缘地区的布格重力场进行反演与分析,深入研究该地区的深部结构与变形特征,探讨区域深部孕震环境及动力学机制.研究表明,青藏高原东北缘的布格重力场整体呈负异常值,具有明显的分区性,表现出鄂尔多斯盆地异常值相对偏高、阿拉善块体次之、青藏高原块体极低的特点,其中海源断裂系形成了一条宽缓的弧形重力梯度条带,梯度值达1.2 mGal·km^-1.欧拉结果显示,鄂尔多斯盆地相比于青藏高原块体而言,场源点具有较强的均一性,场源强度值高(密度值高)且深度稳定在25~32 km范围内,而高原块体的中下地壳尺度广泛分布着低密度异常体.SPI图可知,海源弧形断裂系位于“浅源异常”弧形区,反映其地壳较为活跃,易发生中强地震.SED图揭示青藏高原地壳向东北扩展,经过几大断裂系的调节后运动矢量向东或东南转化,SED与GPS、SKS运动特征大致相同,说明地表-地壳-地幔的运动特征有着较强的一致性.青藏高原东北缘地区壳幔变形是连贯的,加之莫霍面由北向南、由东向西是逐渐加深的,因此属于垂向连贯变形机制,不符合下地壳管道流动力学模式.区域形成了似三联点构造格局,其中海源弧形断裂系的深部地壳结构复杂,高低密度异常体复杂交汇,是青藏高原、阿拉善、鄂尔多斯三大块体相互作用的重要枢纽,其运动学特征总体为中段走滑尾端逆冲,而断裂系正处于大型的弧形莫霍面斜坡带之上,具备强震的深部孕震环境,因此大尺度的运动调节与深部孕震条件共同促使了该地区中强震的多发. 相似文献
20.
青藏高原东北缘是青藏高原隆升、生长及变形前缘.区域地震活动频繁,且地震在其主要断层带之间时空迁移.为了研究区域大地震在主要断层带之间的迁移规律与概率,以及主要断层带大地震破裂的时空分布特征,本文建立了青藏高原东北缘地区的三维黏弹塑性有限元模型,模拟了区域断层系统的地震循环,得到了人工合成的万年时间尺度的地震目录.根据模拟的地震目录,并结合古地震数据,计算分析了大地震(MW≥7)在研究区各个主要断层带之间的迁移概率,探讨了黏度、高程、统计时间长度等因素对大地震在各主要断层带之间的迁移概率和大地震在各主要断层带上的发生概率的影响,并且初步调查了海原断层带和香山天景山断层带的大地震破裂时空分布特征.研究结果显示:继区域最近两次大地震(1920年海原断层带上的M8.5海原大地震和1927年香山天景山断层带上的M8古浪大地震)之后,下一次大地震(MW≥7)发生在海原断层上的概率最大,约为51%～81%;其次是在香山天景山断层上,概率约为9%～37%.模型结果显示,不同的青藏高原中下地壳上地幔黏度大小,对大地震在各个断层带之间的迁移规律和迁移概率的影响较小;而研究区的高程载荷对地震迁移则有显著的影响:高程载荷易于使得海原断层地震活动减弱及香山天景山断层的地震活动增强.研究结果也显示了青藏高原东北缘地区主要断层带的地震活动与断层滑动速率分布的分段性显著;大地震在断层带上的破裂位置并不固定,呈现不均匀性;并暗示了断层几何形状对地震活动、断层滑动速率分布与大地震破裂位置的控制作用. 相似文献