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1.
This paper aims to address the question of how the parameter uncertainty associated with a mixed conceptual and physical based rainfall-runoff model (AFFDEF) has influences on flood simulation of the semiarid Abolabbas catchment (284 km2), in Iran. AFFDEF was modified and coupled with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm to simulate four flash flood events. Analysis suggests that AFFDEF parameters showed non-unique posterior distributions depending on the magnitudes and duration of flash flood events. Model predictive uncertainty was heavily dominated by error and bias in soil antecedent moisture condition that led to large storage effect in simulation. Overall, multiplying parameter for the infiltration reservoir capacity and multiplying parameter for the interception reservoir capacity along with potential runoff contributing areas were identified the key model parameters and more influential on flood simulation. Results further revealed that uncertainty was satisfactorily quantified for the event with low to moderate flood magnitudes while high magnitude event exhibited unsatisfactory result.  相似文献   

2.
基于GLUE方法的城市雨洪模型参数不确定性分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文
史蓉  赵刚  庞博  姜其贵  甄婷婷 《水文》2016,36(2):1-6
以北京市大红门排水片为例,构建基于SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)的城市雨洪模型,并基于GLUE方法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)对模型参数的不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,所建城市雨洪模型能够较好的模拟区域的雨洪过程。在模型参数中,管道曼宁系数、不透水区洼蓄量以及河道曼宁系数的不确定性对模型结果的影响较为显著。GLUE方法能够在分析模型结果不确定性的同时给出敏感性参数,为城市雨洪模型的参数率定和进一步研制提供了有效工具。  相似文献   

3.
The effects of inactivation agents, including common polymeric aluminium (Al) chloride (CPAC) and Ecological Type PAC (UNIC), on phosphorus (P) released from sediment are unclear. To determine these effects, we performed seven experiments using various inactivation agent additions. The experimental schemes used were as follows: (1) CPAC, 15 mg Al L?1; (2) CPAC (15 mg Al L?1) + polyacrylamide (PAM) (0.5 mg L?1); (3) UNIC, 5 mg Al L?1; (4) UNIC, 15 mg Al L?1; (5) UNIC, 60 mg Al L?1; (6) control set without any inactivation agent addition; and (7) alkali shock load (the pH value of overlying water in the scheme 7 was adjusted to 11 by addition of sodium hydroxide to simulate alkali shock load at 13 days after CPAC addition). The experiments were conducted in glass columns, each containing 0.3 L sediment from Lake Dianchi and 3 L of overlying water. The results showed that P release rate decreased as the amount of inactivation agent added increased. P release rate was calculated according to each inactivation agent and the amount of inactivation agent added. Release rate found was in the decreasing order: (6) > (3) > (4) > (1) > (5) > (2). The corresponding rate was calculated to be 7.11, 6.16, 4.55, 1.76, 1.46 and 1.00 mg P m?2 day?1, respectively. Dissolved total P (DTP) was the main form of total P (TP) in the overlying water. After the addition of PAM, the DTP:TP ratio decreased while the dissolved inorganic P (DIP):DTP ratio increased. With increasing the amount of inactivation agents added, both DTP:TP and DIP:TP ratios decreased. Experimental group 3 had similar DTP:TP and DIP:TP ratios to experimental group 6. These results are significant in terms of the large-scale application of inactivation agents for reducing levels of bioreactive P. Alkali shock load (experimental group 7) caused failure in the inactivation of P by CPAC.  相似文献   

4.
"异参同效"现象是水文模型参数率定过程中的一个难题。为了减少需要率定的模型参数个数,从而降低模型参数的相互作用,构建了利用土壤属性直接估计VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)模型3个基流参数的框架,并在3个位于不同水文气候条件下的典型流域中作了实例研究。传统的VIC模型参数估计方法需要率定6个参数;而在新的参数估计框架下,需要率定的模型参数从6个减少为3个。蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明新的参数估计框架提高了参数的敏感性。同时,新的参数估计方法模拟的径流过程和之前通过率定得到的径流过程差别很小。GLUE(Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)方法分析得到径流模拟的不确定性结果表明:新的参数估计框架计算径流的90%置信区间要明显小于传统方法,而且对于低流量的模拟效果更加明显,也就是说采用新的参数估计框架可以显著降低径流模拟的不确定性。这种基流参数估计方法可以被应用于其他相似的水文模型中。  相似文献   

5.
Assessment of uncertainty due to inadequate data and imperfect geological knowledge is an essential aspect of the subsurface model building process. In this work, a novel methodology for characterizing complex geological structures is presented that integrates dynamic data. The procedure results in the assessment of uncertainty associated with the predictions of flow and transport. The methodology is an extension of a previously developed pattern search-based inverse method that models the spatial variation in flow parameters by searching for patterns in an ensemble of reservoir models. More specifically, the pattern-searching algorithm is extended in two directions: (1) state values (such as piezometric head) and parameters (such as conductivities) are simultaneously and sequentially estimated, which implies that real-time assimilation of dynamic data is possible as in ensemble filtering approaches; and (2) both the estimated parameter and state variables are considered when pattern searching is implemented. The new scheme results in two main advantages—better characterization of parameters, especially for delineating small scale features, and an ensemble of head states that can be used to update the parameter field using the dynamic data at the next instant, without running expensive flow simulations. An efficient algorithm for pattern search is developed, which works with a flexible search radius and can be optimized for the estimation of either large- or small-scale structures. Synthetic examples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.  相似文献   

6.
城市暴雨径流模拟的参数不确定性研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文
基于暴雨管理模型(SWMM),构建了澳门半岛雅廉访实验小区降雨径流模拟系统,采用generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation(GLUE)方法对复杂降雨径流模型参数的不确定性进行了分析,采用均匀分布为参数的先验分布(prior distribution),选取拉丁超立方法作为采样方法,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数作为似然评判准则。结果表明该方法可以有效的分析降雨径流模型参数的不确定性,对降雨径流模型参数识别提供了深入分析与理解模型系统的有效途径。  相似文献   

7.
In this paper, the lumped quasi-distributed hydrological model HEC HMS is used to simulate the rainfall–runoff process of the Mekerra watershed, located in the northwest of Algeria. The model parameters’ uncertainty and the predictive intervals were evaluated with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. According to the results, good simulations were obtained with different values of variables for many sets of parameters generated randomly by the Monte Carlo procedure, which is known as Equifinality. After the analysis, only the hydraulic conductivity at saturation parameter appears well defined, taking values within a limited range. In addition, results indicated that combinations of likelihood measures associated with multiple and different periods of observations reduce a posterior uncertainty of estimated parameters and predictive intervals in some degree. Overall, the GLUE analysis showed that there is a significant uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling of watershed Mekerra, to a great extent due to multiple sources of errors.  相似文献   

8.
Various approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (K s) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods??multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks??that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for K s prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict K s from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from the literature demonstrates the importance of site-specific calibration. The data set used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size K s-pairs. Finally, an application with the optimised models is presented for a borehole lacking K s data.  相似文献   

9.
Coregionalization analysis has been presented as a method of multi-scale analysis for multivariate spatial data. Despite an increasing use of this method in environmental and earth sciences, the uncertainty associated with the estimation of parameters in coregionalization analysis (e.g., sills and functions of sills) is potentially high and has not yet been characterized. This article aims to discuss the theory underlying coregionalization analysis and assess the robustness and limits of the method. A theoretical framework is developed to calculate the ergodic and fluctuation variance-covariance matrices of least-squares estimators of sills in the linear model of coregionalization. To adjust for the positive semidefiniteness constraint on estimated coregionalization matrices, a confidence interval estimation procedure for sills and functions of sills is presented. Thereafter, the relative importance of uncertainty measures (bias and variance) for sills and structural coefficients of correlation and determination is assessed under different scenarios to identify factors controlling their uncertainty. Our results show that the sampling grid density, the choice of the least-squares estimator of sills, the positive semidefiniteness constraint, the presence of scale dependence in the correlations, and the number and range of variogram models, all affect the level of uncertainty, sometimes through multiple interactions. The asymptotic properties of variogram model parameter estimators in a bounded sampling domain impose a theoretical limit to their accuracy and precision. Because of this limit, the uncertainty was found to be high for several scenarios, especially with three variogram models, and was often more dependent on the ratio of variogram range to domain extent than on the sampling grid density. In practice, in the coregionalization analysis of a real dataset, the circular requirement for sill estimates in the calculation of uncertainty measures makes the quantification of uncertainty very problematic, if not impossible. The use of coregionalization analysis must be made with due knowledge of the uncertainty levels and limits of the method.  相似文献   

10.
One of the key challenges in water treatment industry is the removal of organic compounds by cost-effective methods. This study evaluated the adsorptive removal of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from reservoir water using fuller’s earth (FE) in comparison with natural (SQ) and modified quartz (MSQ) sands. The removal capacities of FE at different contact times, pH levels, adsorbent dosages and initial DOC concentrations were compared with both the quartz sands. The optimum DOC removals by FE and SQs were achieved at contact time of 60 and 30 min, pH level of 6 and 4, and at adsorbent dose of 1.5 g/150 mL and 10 g/100 mL, respectively. The adsorption capacity of FE (1.05 mg/g) was much higher compared to the MSQ (0.04 mg/g) and SQ (0.01 mg/g). Adsorption equilibrium data better fitted to the Freundlich model than to the Langmuir model, suggesting that adsorption occurred primarily through multilayer formation onto the surfaces of FE and SQ. The pseudo-second-order model described the uptake kinetics more effectively than the pseudo-first-order and intra-particle diffusion models, indicating that the mechanism was primarily governed by chemisorption. These observations were well supported by the physiochemical characteristics and charge behaviour of the adsorbents. In mass-transfer study, the results of liquid film diffusion model showed that the adsorption of DOC on FE was not controlled by film diffusion, but other mechanisms also played an essential role. This study demonstrates that FE is an effective adsorbent for the removal of DOC in surface water treatment.  相似文献   

11.
Coregionalization analysis has been presented as a method of multi-scale analysis for multivariate spatial data. Despite an increasing use of this method in environmental and earth sciences, the uncertainty associated with the estimation of parameters in coregionalization analysis (e.g., sills and functions of sills) is potentially high and has not yet been characterized. This article aims to discuss the theory underlying coregionalization analysis and assess the robustness and limits of the method. A theoretical framework is developed to calculate the ergodic and fluctuation variance-covariance matrices of least-squares estimators of sills in the linear model of coregionalization. To adjust for the positive semidefiniteness constraint on estimated coregionalization matrices, a confidence interval estimation procedure for sills and functions of sills is presented. Thereafter, the relative importance of uncertainty measures (bias and variance) for sills and structural coefficients of correlation and determination is assessed under different scenarios to identify factors controlling their uncertainty. Our results show that the sampling grid density, the choice of the least-squares estimator of sills, the positive semidefiniteness constraint, the presence of scale dependence in the correlations, and the number and range of variogram models, all affect the level of uncertainty, sometimes through multiple interactions. The asymptotic properties of variogram model parameter estimators in a bounded sampling domain impose a theoretical limit to their accuracy and precision. Because of this limit, the uncertainty was found to be high for several scenarios, especially with three variogram models, and was often more dependent on the ratio of variogram range to domain extent than on the sampling grid density. In practice, in the coregionalization analysis of a real dataset, the circular requirement for sill estimates in the calculation of uncertainty measures makes the quantification of uncertainty very problematic, if not impossible. The use of coregionalization analysis must be made with due knowledge of the uncertainty levels and limits of the method.  相似文献   

12.
Relative density is an important state parameter that influences the soil behavior. Preparation of sand specimens with uniform density is critical during large-scale laboratory testing in geotechnical engineering. In this study, the details of a stationary air pluviation device used to prepare uniform sand specimens in a large-size test chamber with dimensions equal to 900 mm × 900 mm × 1000 mm (in length, width, and depth) are provided. The proposed device is found to be simple to construct due to presence of only two diffuser sieves with an ability to produce uniform sand beds in a reasonably quick time. Prior to construction of full-scale pluviation device, a scaled-down model of the device with plan dimensions equal to 300 mm × 300 mm is fabricated to perform calibration studies. The range of densities of two gradations of Indian Standard sand (IS Grade II and IS Grade III) obtained using this device for various heights of fall of sand particles and passing through different opening sizes are provided. Relative density in the range of 53–99 % and 74–99 % is achieved for IS Grade II and III sands, respectively. The spatial uniformity in densities is also assessed, and the coefficient of variation (COV) in the density is found to be less than about 7 %. In addition to pluviation method, uniform sand beds are also prepared using pneumatically-operated vibratory method. The target relative density of sand bed is achieved by adjusting the pressure of compressed air inside the vibrator, and the maximum relative density of IS Grade II and Grade III sands from vibratory method is found to be higher than that from pluviation method for the range of pressures chosen in the study.  相似文献   

13.
Concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and ultraviolet/visible light absorbance decrease systematically as groundwater moves through the unsaturated zones overlying aquifers and along flowpaths within aquifers. These changes occur over distances of tens of meters (m) implying rapid removal kinetics of the chromophoric DOM that imparts color to groundwater. A one-compartment input-output model was used to derive a differential equation describing the removal of DOM from the dissolved phase due to the combined effects of biodegradation and sorption. The general solution to the equation was parameterized using a 2-year record of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration changes in groundwater at a long-term observation well. Estimated rates of DOC loss were rapid and ranged from 0.093 to 0.21 micromoles per liter per day (μM d?1), and rate constants for DOC removal ranged from 0.0021 to 0.011 per day (d?1). Applying these removal rate constants to an advective-dispersion model illustrates substantial depletion of DOC over flow-path distances of 200 m or less and in timeframes of 2 years or less. These results explain the low to moderate DOC concentrations (20–75 μM; 0.26–1 mg L?1) and ultraviolet absorption coefficient values (a 254?<?5 m?1) observed in groundwater produced from 59 wells tapping eight different aquifer systems of the United States. The nearly uniform optical clarity of groundwater, therefore, results from similarly rapid DOM-removal kinetics exhibited by geologically and hydrologically dissimilar aquifers.  相似文献   

14.
Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.  相似文献   

15.
In order to assess the performance of the common temperature-index melt model at both spatial and temporal scale in Qilian Mountains, we performed the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on the parameters of a common temperature-index method and evaluated the glacier mass balance on a small alpine glacier, which is separated into two relatively independent branches, with the daily mass balance and the meteorological data in the summer of 2011 and 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis was carried out by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for different conditions. The results showed that the temperature-index method could properly capture the diurnal variability of the glacier mass balance. But strong equifinality of model parameter existsed in model calibration due to the uncertainty in the parameters. The model was very sensitive to changes in the value of Kice, followed by the Ksnow and Ts. It was also found that the GLUE approaches could estimate and derive the posterior distributions of 3 parameters properly. Moreover, there existed an acceptable range, which ensured high precision under different conditions.  相似文献   

16.
The estimation of river bank erosion requires the knowledge of both local hydrodynamic and erodibility characteristics. Models exist in literature that allow the estimation of the river bank shear stress, the fundamental parameter in evaluating the retreat given the discharge flow and the geometry of the river channel. In this study, two hydrodynamic models (1-D and 2-D) were combined with three shear stress models in order to obtain an estimation of the retreat on a study case on the river Cecina in Tuscany, Central Italy. A calibration of the models was performed based on observations from aerial photos of the region over a period of 10 years (1994–2004), and the results of the different combinations of the models are discussed and compared. A framework was developed for the risk analysis of land loss due to bank erosion based on the analyses of discharge flow time series and an excess shear stress erosion model. An application to the study case is provided by using the results of fluvial erosion modelling.  相似文献   

17.
A series of natural omphacites from a wide range of P, T occurrences were investigated by electron microprobe (EMP), infrared (IR)-, Mössbauer (MS)- and optical spectroscopy in the UV/VIS spectral range (UV/VIS), secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and single crystal structure refinement by X-ray diffraction (XRD) to study the influence of hydrogen loss on valence state and site occupancies of iron. In accordance with literature data we found Fe2+ at M1 as well as at M2, and in a first approach assigned Fe3+ to M1, as indicated by MS and XRD results. Hydrogen content of three of our omphacite samples were measured by SIMS. In combination with IR spectroscopy we determined an absorption coefficient: ε i,tot = 65,000 ± 3,000 lmolH2O ?1 cm?2. Using this new ε i,tot value, we obtained water concentrations ranging from 60 to 700 ppm H2O (by weight). Hydrogen loss was simulated by stepwise heating the most water rich samples in air up to 800°C. After heat treatment the samples were analyzed again by IR, MS, UV/VIS, and XRD. Depending on the type of the OH defect, the grade of dehydration with increasing temperature is significantly different. In samples relatively poor in Fe3+ (<0.1 Fe3+ pfu), hydrogen associated with vacancies at M2 (OH bands around 3,450 cm?1) starts to leave the structure at about 550°C and is completely gone at 780°C. Hydrogen associated with Al3+ at the tetrahedral site (OH bands around 3,525 cm?1, Koch-Müller et al., Am Mineral, 89:921–931, 2004) remains completely unaffected by heat treatment up to 700°C. But all hydrogen vanished at about 775°C. However, this is different for a more Fe3+-rich sample (0.2 Fe3+ pfu). Its IR spectrum is characterized by a very intense OH band at 3,515 cm?1 plus shoulder at 3,450 cm?1. We assign this intense high-energy band to vibrations of an OH dipole associated with Fe3+ at M1 and a vacancy either at M1 or M2. OH release during heating is positively correlated with decrease in Fe2+ and combined with increase in Fe3+. That dehydration is correlated with oxidation of Fe2+ is indirectly confirmed by annealing of one sample in a gas mixing furnace at 700°C under reducing conditions keeping almost constant OH? content and giving no indication of Fe2+-oxidation. Obtained data indicate that in samples with a relatively high concentration of Fe2+ at M2 and low-water concentrations, i.e., at a ratio of Fe2+ M2/H > 10 dehydration occurs by iron oxidation of Fe2+ exclusively at the M2 site following the reaction: \( {\left[ {{\text{Fe}}^{{{\text{2 + [ M2]}}}}{\text{OH}}^{ - } } \right]} = {\left[ {{\text{Fe}}^{{{\text{3 + [ M2]}}}} {\text{O}}^{{{\text{2}} - }} } \right]} + {\text{1/2}}\;{\text{H}}_{{\text{2}}} \uparrow . \) In samples having relatively low concentration of Fe2+ at M2 but high-water concentrations, i.e., ratio of Fe2+ M2/H < 5.0 dehydration occurs through oxidation of Fe2+ at M1.  相似文献   

18.
Gazestan phosphate ore deposit (Central Iran) is an apatite deposit which is instrumental in selecting the method of excavation. The position of fault systems and the condition of rock quality also play a role in the method used for mineral resources and ore reserves estimation. Conversely, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD) is a parameter that provides a quantitative judgment of rock mass quality obtained from drill cores. This factor can be applied to detect the fractured zones which occur due to fault systems. Additionally, the faulted areas can be determined by surface geological map and a few by core drilling. Some of the faulted areas are not distinguishable in the surface and are covered by soils, especially within 3D modeling and visualization. In this study, an attempt has been made to establish a relationship between the RQD percentages which were geostatistically simulated and faulted areas through the region. In comparison, the results showed that low RQD domains (RQD <20 %) can be interpreted as fault zones; high RQD domains (RQD >50 %) correspond to less fractured areas, and the contact between high and low RQD domain is gradual. Therefore, this categorization of RQD domains can be incorporated to detect the faulted zones in 3D models for mine design. Based on the categorization, the uncertainty within the area was calculated to introduce two new core drilling points for the completion of this phase of exploratory grid from the fault structural viewpoint, in order to have a proper model of ore reserve to estimate. It was concluded that this procedure can be utilized for conceptual comprehension of fault trends in 3D modeling for the method selection of excavation and complete the estimation procedure phase.  相似文献   

19.
Thermodynamic models are vital tools to evaluate magma crystallization and storage conditions. Before their results can be used independently, however, they must be verified with controlled experimental data. Here, we use a set of hydrothermal experiments on the Late-erupted Bishop Tuff (LBT) magma to evaluate the rhyolite-MELTS thermodynamic model, a modified calibration of the original MELTS model optimized for crystallization of silicic magmas. Experimental results that are well captured by rhyolite-MELTS include a relatively narrow temperature range separating the crystallization of the first felsic mineral and the onset of the ternary minimum (quartz plus two feldspars), and extensive crystallization over a narrow temperature range once the ternary minimum is reached. The model overestimates temperatures by ~40 °C, a known limitation of rhyolite-MELTS. At pressures below 110 MPa, model and experiments differ in the first felsic phase, suggesting that caution should be exercised when applying the model to very low pressures. Our results indicate that for quartz, sanidine, plagioclase, magnetite, and ilmenite to crystallize in equilibrium from LBT magma, magma must have been stored at ≤740 °C, even when a substantial amount of CO2 occurs in the coexisting fluid. Such temperatures are in conflict with the hotter temperatures retrieved from magnetite–ilmenite compositions (~785 °C for the sample used in the experiments). Consistent with other recent studies, we suggest that the Fe–Ti oxide phases in the Late Bishop Tuff magma body are not in equilibrium with the other minerals and thus the retrieved temperature and oxygen fugacity do not reflect pre-eruptive storage conditions.  相似文献   

20.
Groundwater may be highly enriched in dissolved carbon species, but its role as a source of carbon to coastal waters is still poorly constrained. Exports of deep and shallow groundwater-derived dissolved carbon species from a small subtropical estuary (Korogoro Creek, Australia, latitude ?31.0478°, longitude 153.0649°) were quantified using a radium isotope mass balance model (233Ra and 224Ra, natural groundwater tracers) under two hydrological conditions. In addition, air-water exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the estuary was estimated. The highest carbon inputs to the estuary were from deep fresh groundwater in the wet season. Most of the dissolved carbon delivered by groundwater and exported from the estuary to the coastal ocean was in the form of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; 687 mmol m?2 estuary day?1; 20 mmol m?2 catchment day?1, respectively), with a large export of alkalinity (23 mmol m?2 catchment day?1). Average water to air flux of CO2 (869 mmol m?2 day?1) and CH4 (26 mmol m?2 day?1) were 5- and 43-fold higher, respectively, than the average global evasion in estuaries due to the large input of CO2- and CH4-enriched groundwater. The groundwater discharge contribution to carbon exports from the estuary for DIC, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), alkalinity, CO2, and CH4 was 22, 41, 3, 75, and 100 %, respectively. The results show that CO2 and CH4 evasion rates from small subtropical estuaries surrounded by wetlands can be extremely high and that groundwater discharge had a major role in carbon export and evasion from the estuary and therefore should be accounted for in coastal carbon budgets.  相似文献   

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