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1.
Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need
for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households’ prevention of damage by natural hazards
is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a
socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage
prevention by residents’ perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection,
the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses
like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys
and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents’ age, gender, income, school degree
and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally
been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model,
with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their
share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but
also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures. 相似文献
2.
Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens’ expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen–local government–central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a ‘risk conscious’ society in which ‘sharing and bearing’ is considered desirable. 相似文献
3.
Recent emergency flood situations at European rivers have revealed the demand for better and in-time information for citizens
in flood prone areas about flood development, as well as better coordination of resources and actions during pre-flood phases
and its critical stage. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has a large potential to improve the situation. Decisions
may be supported by information about resources available at the region and national level, by information about means and
access to critical locations at the prevention as well as the evacuation phases, and by including citizens as well as managers
into one common information and communication process. The paper outlines the potential of ICT for these aspects. 相似文献
4.
The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region 总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1
The low risk awareness of the residents living in flood-prone areas is usually considered among the main causes of their low preparedness, which in turns generates inadequate response to natural disasters. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by reporting on the results of a sociological research in four communities exposed to flood risk in the Eastern Italian Alps. The research design included semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key local stakeholders and a standardized questionnaire submitted to 400 residents. Results revealed that residents felt both slightly worried about flood risk and slightly prepared to face an event. Considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. There was also a clear discrepancy between the actual adoption of household preparatory measures and the willingness to take self-protection actions. Overall, the risk awareness was significantly higher among those residents who had been personally affected by a flood in the past, were living in isolated (vs. urban) communities, in the most risky areas or had a lower level of trust in local authorities. The improvement of residents?? knowledge about their environment and the residual risk seemed to be crucial to increase risk awareness, and the same was true for the strengthening of local support networks to foster preparedness. The link between risk awareness and preparedness was not at all straightforward. Results revealed instead the complexity of residents?? perspectives, attitudes, behaviours and decisions about risk-related issues. 相似文献
5.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):644-650
The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies. 相似文献
6.
决策者的经验和知识判断对实际洪水调度有着非常重要的影响,为此,将决策者预泄控制的实践经验和泄流状态持续性要求纳入模型约束条件中,提出了防洪优化调度多约束启发式逐步优化方法。该方法以最大削峰为控制目标,将水库泄流的一般操作原则概化为启发式信息,以洪水涨落和水位升降作为泄流增减的判别依据,与优化搜索相结合,采用启发式逐步优化算法求解。以水口水库为例,采用5个方案对所提方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,提出的方法可以充分考虑决策者的经验和知识判断,降低了预泄腾库水位过低造成的回蓄风险,避免了泄流过程的波动,得到符合实际洪水调度要求的计算结果。 相似文献
7.
Flooding is a serious hazard across Europe, with over 200 major floods documented in the last two decades. Over this period, flood management has evolved, with a greater responsibility now placed on at-risk communities to understand their risk and take protective action to develop flood resilience. Consequently, communicating flood risk has become an increasingly central part of developing flood resilience. However, research suggests that current risk communications have not resulted in the intended increase in awareness, or behavioural change. This paper explores how current risk communications are used by those at risk, what information users desire and how best this should be presented. We explore these questions through a multi-method participatory experiment, working together with a competency group of local participants in the town of Corbridge, Northumberland, the UK. Our research demonstrates that current risk communications fail to meet user needs for information in the period before a flood event, leaving users unsure of what will happen, or how best to respond. We show that participants want information on when and how a flooding may occur (flood dynamics), so that they can understand their risk and feel in control of their decisions on how to respond. We also present four prototypes which translate these information needs into new approaches to communicating flood risk. Developed by the research participants, these proposals meet their information needs, increase their flood literacy and develop their response capacity. The findings of the research have implications for how we design and develop future flood communications, but also for how we envisage the role of flood communications in developing resilience at a community level. 相似文献
8.
This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in central Liaoning Province, which was supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights were developed using combined weights of entropy, the relative membership degree functions of variable fuzzy set (VFS) theory were calculated using improved set pair analysis, while level values were calculated using VFSs, including hazard levels, exposure levels, vulnerability levels and restorability levels, and the flood risk level for each assessment unit was obtained using the natural disaster index method. Consequently, integrated flood risk map was carried out by GIS spatial analysis technique. The results show that the southwestern and central parts of the study area possess higher risk, while the northwestern and southeastern parts possess lower risk. The results got by the assessment model fits the area of historical flood data; this study offer new insights and possibility to carry out an efficient way for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The study also provides scientific reference in flood risk management for local and national governmental agencies. 相似文献
9.
Nuclear power development is a controversial issue in the post-Fukushima era. Outlining the effective risk communication strategies is very important. This study attempts to examine the determinants of information-seeking intentions in the context of nuclear power risks. Guided by risk information-seeking models, such as the risk information seeking and processing, this study developed a conceptual model to explore this issue. A survey of the residents (N = 487) near the Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant significantly validated the hypothesized causal relations. Perceived knowledge about nuclear power is important in predicting the perceived risk, information need, and information-seeking intentions. The information need and channel beliefs are significant predictors of information-seeking intentions. Moreover, results also suggest the mediating role of information need in the information-seeking process. However, information-seeking intentions are indirectly, rather than directly, stimulated by perceived risk. Implications and further research are discussed. 相似文献
10.
Predicting community earthquake preparedness: a cross-cultural comparison of Japan and New Zealand 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper reports on a study investigating cross-cultural equivalence in predictors of earthquake preparedness. Data were
collected from Napier (New Zealand) and Kyoto (Japan). These locations were selected because they face comparable levels of
seismic risk but differ with respect to their cultural characteristics. This mix of hazard similarity and cultural differences
provided an opportunity to assess the degree of cross-cultural equivalence in predictors of earthquake preparedness. Cross-cultural
equivalence was examined by assessing the degree to which individual hazard beliefs (outcome expectancies) and social characteristics
(community participation, collective efficacy, empowerment, trust) could explain levels of hazard preparedness in each location.
Structural equation modelling analyses revealed similarity in the pattern of relationships between predictor variables and
intention prepare in the Napier and Kyoto data. It is argued that this provides support for the existence of some universal,
cross-cultural equivalence in how hazard beliefs and social characteristics interact to predict the degree to which people
adopt earthquake preparedness measures. Differences between the data sets are discussed in the context of the fundamental
cultural differences between Japan and New Zealand. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
11.
吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用吉林省50县市1951-2013年逐日降水资料、暴雨灾情损失数据,1：5万DEM数据、水系、TM遥感卫星影像资料以及GDP、人口等数据,探讨了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险的主要影响因素,确立了各因素的权重系数,构建了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险评估模型.利用过程预报降雨量对2013年8月14-17日的重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险进行了预评估.结果表明：重大暴雨过程灾害损失综合风险的高值区分布在四平、辽源大部以及长春、吉林、通化城区附近,风险偏高区位于中南部,西部地区和东北部地区为中低风险区.灾害损失风险评估模型预评估效果良好,可在实际的暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估业务中使用,由于通过该模型的评估结果可迅速圈定各级洪涝风险区,对提高重大暴雨过程应对能力、减少灾害损失以及防灾减灾意义重大. 相似文献
12.
Integration of RADARSAT and GIS modelling for estimating future Red River flood risk 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new geomatics-based approach for flood prediction was developed and used to model the magnitude and spatial extent of a
future Red River flood in southern Manitoba. This approach combines the statistical modelling capabilities of Markov (non-spatial)
analysis and logistic regression (spatial) within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, utilizing modelling inputs
derived from remotely sensed RADARSAT imagery and other digital geographic data. The 1997 Red River flood was the second largest
in recorded history, and the largest for which accurate data are available. The results indicate: (i) a flood “one time interval-in
terms of 3 days time unit measurement- larger in area” than the 1997 flood is expected to affect 17.6% more land (an additional
47.6 km2) within the study area compared to 1997 levels based on Markovian probability derived from observations from the 1997 event;
and (ii) the majority of this excess flooding will take place on agricultural land; no additional communities are expected
to be at risk. Quantitative assessment verified the capability of this modelling approach for producing statistically significant
results. The methodology used in this research would be easily transferable to other areas, and may provide the basis for
a viable alternative to conventional hydrologic-based flood prediction approaches
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
13.
Dire Dawa city is identified as one of the most flood-affected cities in Ethiopia. Classifying village-level flood vulnerability using flood indicators is a new approach to Dire Dawa city. Analysis of different flood vulnerability factors underpins sustainable flood risk management and the application of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) approach is the hub of this study. Relevant data were collected from 110 households sampled from purposely selected 10 villages found in Dire Dawa city. The flood vulnerability index was used to compare, classify and rank villages in terms of their flood vulnerability levels. For this purpose, 24 sets of indicators which are strongly affecting the levels of flood vulnerability were assessed from social, economic and physical perspectives. The FVI of each village was computed with unequal method of weighting indicators. The findings of the study revealed that Dire Dawa city villages were experiencing varying levels of flood vulnerability. Accordingly, villages 05, 06, 07 and 09 were identified with high flood vulnerability level while villages 03, 04 and 08 and villages 01, 02 and extension village were identified with medium and low level of vulnerability, respectively. Interestingly, the findings of the study confirmed that social factors contributed much for flood vulnerability in Dire Dawa city. Hence, future urban flood risk planning and management endeavors in the city of Dire Dawa must be underpinned by proper utilization of the flood vulnerability map developed addressing social vulnerability component through both structural and non-structural urban flood risk management measures.
相似文献14.
Ruisong Quan 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4627-4638
As one of the top 20 cities exposed to flood disasters, Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful floods and poorly prepared. However, it is unclear to understand the evolution process of floods and the variation of flood risk in Shanghai during the past 1,000 years. This paper analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics of flood disaster and evaluated the integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai based on the historical flood data from 251 to 2000. The results show that flood disaster in Shanghai was divided into storm surge-induced flood, rainstorm-induced flood and overbank flood. Flood disaster in Shanghai presents rising trend with time and mainly occurs in summer and autumn. Moreover, the flood disaster is dominated by rainstorm-induced flood, especially after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Additionally, flood risk in different areas of Shanghai between the years 251–1949 and 1950–2000 changed significantly. Shanghai urban area, Jinshan District and Chongming County belong to increased flood risk area; Baoshan, Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong and Minhang District belong to decreased flood risk area. The integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai has presented spatial disparities evidently at present. Shanghai urban area is most likely to suffer flood disaster; Baoshan, Jiading and Minhang District have medium flood risk rank; and Jinshan, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong, Qingpu and Chongming County show low flood risk at present. The combined effect of urbanization, sea-level rise, land subsidence and the poor capacity of flood prevention facilities will give rise to the risk of flood in the next several decades. These results provide very important information for the local government to improve flood risk management. 相似文献
15.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
16.
In Ratnapura monsoonal flooding is a chronic problem of which the residents are acutely aware. Responses to structured interviews indicated that a wide range of actions are employed to reduce flood impact, although these actions are not perceived as specific adjustments to flooding. The only widely acknowledged means of mitigating the flood threat is government action. Dependency on government action reflects the government's role in dispensing aid to flood victims. While relief programmes do reduce personal, short-term losses, they simultaneously encourage resettlement in high-risk areas. In seeking a viable, long-term management policy, the Sri Lankan government recently adopted a plan to move the municipality of Ratnapura to invulnerable high ground. In making the decision to relocate, however, the attitudes of the residents were not evaluated, and government officials seemed unconcerned that residents viewed relocation as an unacceptable solution to the problem. Although individual attitudes concerning residential satisfaction in the context of the flood hazard varied with factors such as income, length of residency and land tenure, an overwhelming number of residents adamantly maintained that they would not move to the new town. 相似文献
17.
The frequently occurring city smog in China has become a hot topic and raised extensive discussion in the public health domain. Our study tries to explore how citizens attribute causation and responded to city smog in Hefei, Anhui Province. The data from 420 respondents generally answered our research questions. The result suggests that attribution of responsibility can be influenced by risk perception, citizens’ occupation and source reliance. Attribution of responsibility, source reliance and risk perception can affect the citizens’ protective actions. 相似文献
18.
北江大堤洪水风险信息管理系统研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以北江大堤保护范围作为研究区域，将洪水风险分析技术与GIS技术相结合，应用洪水仿真模型描述洪水的泛滥过程及水情风险特征，勾画出不同洪水频率下最大可能淹没范围，表述淹没水深、流速、历时、到达时间等风险指标的空间分布，刻划风险区内部风险程度的空间差异；应用GIS技术，叠加必要的社会经济与基础工程信息，采用GIS电子地图多层叠加方式，制作和表述洪水风险圈；进而应用洪水风险图。完成风险信息查询、灾害评估以及抢险与避难方案的设计等，并形成一套完整的风险管理与决策支持应用系统。 相似文献
19.
Storm extreme levels and coastal flood hazards: A parametric approach on the French coast of Languedoc (district of Leucate) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Brice Anselme Paul Durand Yves-François Thomas Alexandre Nicolae-Lerma 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2011,343(10):677-690
Coastal flooding is a significant risk on the shores of Languedoc-Roussillon. The storms that periodically hit the coast can generate strong swells and storm surges. Most beach resorts, built on a low elevation dune ridge, are periodically flooded during major storms. Although risks zoning regulations take into consideration coastal flood hazards, the delineation of vulnerable areas is still insufficient and the commonly accepted threshold is regularly exceeded during most severe storms. This paper presents a method to improve the assessment of extreme storm-related water levels. It relies on fieldwork carried out in the Leucate commune (Aude), which is particularly exposed to the risk of sea level rise. It considers both storm surges and wave phenomena that occur within the surf zone (set-up and swash), calculated from the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN®) numerical wave model and the Stockdon formula. Water levels reached during several recent storm events have been reconstructed and simulations of submerged areas were carried out by numerical modelling. 相似文献
20.
Traditional approaches to risk communication ignore the emotional, cognitive and social factors that interact to influence the meaning people attribute to hazards and protective actions. The aim of this study was to investigate the emotional and cognitive factors predicting preparedness intention and community’s preparedness for flood hazards. A cross-sectional study was conducted between June and July 2015, in Dire Dawa town, Ethiopia. Using stratified systematic random sampling, a structured questionnaire was administered to individuals aged 18 and over in 660 households. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) (STATA version 13.0). The study participants’ mean age was 34 years, ranging from 18 to 80 (SD?=?12) with equal gender balance. SEM analysis revealed that the total effects of preparedness intention (path coefficient (β)?=?0.202, 95% CI: [0.036, 0.369]), past flood disaster experience (β?=?0.034, 95% CI: [0.008, 0.061]), trust (β?=?0.100, 95% CI: [0.059, 0.142]), anxiety (β?=?0.026, 95% CI: [0.018, 0.034), positive outcome expectancy (β?=???0.139, 95% CI: [??0.253, ??0.026]), negative outcome expectancy (β?=?0.105, 95% CI: [0.062, 0.149]), perceived flood likelihood (β?=?0.049, 95% CI: [0.012, 0.086]) and consequence (β?=???0.040, 95% CI: [??0.077, ??0.003]) on community preparedness for flood hazards were statistically significant. The main implication of these findings is that people affected by hazard events in the past experience more anxiety and are more likely to participate in community preparedness activities than those who were not affected. 相似文献