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1.
The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming has important implications to potential feedbacks to climate. The interactions between topography, climate, and disturbance could alter recruitment patterns to reduce or offset current predicted positive feedbacks to warming at high latitudes. In northern Alaska the Brooks Range poses a complex environmental and ecological barrier to species migration. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming in the Kobuk/Noatak River Valley (200 × 400 km) in northwest Alaska. The model simulations showed that a significantly warmer (+6 °C) summer climate would cause expansion of forest through the Brooks Range onto the currently treeless North Slope only after a period of 3000–4000 yr. Substantial forest establishment on the North Slope didnot occur until temperatures warmed 9 °C, and only following a 2000 yr time lag. The long time lags between change in climate and change in vegetation indicate current global change predictions greatly over-estimate the response of vegetation to a warming climate in Alaska. In all the simulations warming caused a steady increase in the proportion of early successional deciduous forest. This would reduce the magnitude of the predicted decrease in regional albedo and the positive feedback to climate warming. Simulation of spruce forest refugia on the North Slope showed forest could survive with only a 4 °C warming and would greatly reduce the time lag of forest expansion under warmer climates. Planting of spruce on the North Slope by humans could increase the likelihood of large-scale colonization of currently treeless tundra. Together, the long time lag and deciduous forest dominance would delay the predicted positive regional feedback of vegetation change to climatic warming. These simulated changes indicate the Brooks Range would significantly constrain regional forest expansion under a warming climate, with similar implications for other regions possessing major east-west oriented mountain ranges.  相似文献   

2.
Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land, water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y?1. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C y?1 via tropical afforestation would require at least 7?×?106 ha y?1 of land, 0.09 Tg y?1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y?1 of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 %. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2?×?108 ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y?1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production), consuming 4?×?1012?m3 y?1 of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

3.
Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50–100 years. Species such as the Gila trout (Oncorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al., Clim Change 62:75–113, 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gas increases. These regional climate changes are downscaled to derive surface temperature lapse rates using regression models. This procedure indicates that suitable, warm season habitat for Gila trout will be reduced by 70% by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.  相似文献   

4.
The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, shared by India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation. Sea level rise, due to climate change, threatens the long term persistence of the Sundarbans forests and its biodiversity. Among the forests’ biota is the only tiger (Panthera tigris) population in the world adapted for life in mangrove forests. Prior predictions on the impacts of sea level rise on the Sundarbans have been hampered by coarse elevation data in this low-lying region, where every centimeter counts. Using high resolution elevation data, we estimate that with a 28 cm rise above 2000 sea levels, remaining tiger habitat in Bangladesh’s Sundarbans would decline by 96% and the number of breeding individuals would be reduced to less than 20. Assuming current sea level rise predictions and local conditions do not change, a 28 cm sea level rise is likely to occur in the next 50–90 years. If actions to both limit green house gas emissions and increase resilience of the Sundarbans are not initiated soon, the tigers of the Sundarbans may join the Arctic’s polar bears (Ursus maritimus) as early victims of climate change-induced habitat loss.  相似文献   

5.
Using a robust global precipitation database, we analyze coast-to-interior seasonal precipitation distributions over the world’s major forest regions. We find that the active functioning of boreal forests in summer is associated with an intense ocean-to-land moisture transport, which declines in winter when forest functioning is minimal. This seasonal switch manifests itself as a change in the exponential scale length of precipitation distribution, which exceeds 15?×?103 km in summer but decreases to (3–4)?×?103 km in winter. In equatorial rainforests, which are photosynthetically active throughout the year, annual precipitation remains approximately constant, while the coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation significantly declines toward the continent interior. Precipitation over forest during the periods of active forest functioning is always higher than over the adjacent ocean. Such precipitation patterns support the biotic pump concept according to which forest cover drives the ocean-to-land atmospheric moisture transport on a continental scale.  相似文献   

6.
Indications of earlier onset of spring have been observed in behavior of diverse animal and plant species in the Northern Hemisphere in response to recent climate warming. Knowledge of changes in the spring onset is a critical requirement for understanding ecosystem adaption to climate change, especially for agricultural regions. In this study, we present a climatological approach for detecting the temporal and spatial variability in onset of spring with particular emphasis on how they vary along geographical parameters. Yearly dates for spring onset were computed for 71 climate stations in Northeast China based on daily surface air temperature records. These analyses were conducted for the two study periods (1960–2004 and 1979–2004). We also examined the boundary shifts of spring onset for three selected dates between the periods of 1960–1978 and 1979–2004. The results showed that advancement of spring onset was more pronounced for the period of 1979–2004 than for the period of 1960–2004 (4.0 vs. 2.2 days/decade). For the 22 stations where the spring advancement was statistically significant in the two periods, the mean rate of advancement was ?0.6 days/decade during the period of 1960 to 1978. The trends of advancement of spring onset decreased with both increasing latitude and altitude up to 300 m above sea level, and these geographical effects were clearer during 1979–2004. Analysis of boundary shifts of three specific dates revealed that the spring onset has moved to higher latitudes for each date with an average shift of about 1° of latitude (about 110 km). Our results suggest that attempts to address how ecosystems will adapt to spring advancement associated with climate warming should consider the differences in response rates and geographical effects across the study area.  相似文献   

7.
Among several urban design parameters, the height-to-width ratio (H/W) and orientation are important parameters strongly affecting thermal conditions in cities. This paper quantifies changes in thermal comfort due to typical urban canyon configurations in Campinas, Brazil, and presents urban guidelines concerning H/W ratios and green spaces to adapt urban climate change. The study focuses on thermal comfort issues of humans in urban areas and performs evaluation in terms of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), based on long-term data. Meteorological data of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation over a 7-year period (2003–2010) were used. A 3D street canyon model was designed with RayMan Pro software to simulate the influence of urban configuration on urban thermal climate. The following configurations and setups were used. The model canyon was 500 m in length, with widths 9, 21, and 44 m. Its height varied in steps of 2.5 m, from 5 to 40 m. The canyon could be rotated in steps of 15°. The results show that urban design parameters such as width, height, and orientation modify thermal conditions within street canyons. A northeast–southwest orientation can reduce PET during daytime more than other scenarios. Forestry management and green areas are recommended to promote shade on pedestrian areas and on façades, and to improve bioclimate thermal stress, in particular for H/W ratio less than 0.5. The method and results can be applied by architects and urban planners interested in developing responsive guidelines for urban climate issues.  相似文献   

8.
The world’s forests play an important role in regulating climate change through their capacity to sequester carbon. At the same time, they are also increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the western Canadian province of British Columbia, changes in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes are already impacting forests. In response to these observed and anticipated changes, adapted reforestation practices are being developed and proposed as a means to help forest ecosystems adjust to changing climatic conditions. One such practice under consideration is assisted migration—planting species within or outside of the native historical range into areas that are anticipated to be climatically suitable in the future. We used a survey of British Columbia’s population at large (n?=?1923) to quantify levels of support for a range of potential reforestation options (including assisted migration) to adapt to climate change, and to explore what factors can help predict this support. Our findings reveal that the likely location of potential public controversy resides not with the potential implementation of assisted migration strategies per se, but rather with assisted migration strategies that involve movement of tree species beyond their native range.  相似文献   

9.
Future climate change is expected to have many impacts on forest ecosystems. It is important to have some understanding of these impacts in order to make informed forest management decisions. A major consideration in making forest management decisions is the productivity of a site, as measured by site index. In this study, I relate Douglas-fir site index to accumulated growing degree-days greater than 5°C (DD5), as well as to soil moisture and nutrient regime. This allows the impact of climate change on forest productivity to be estimated. A two step approach was followed. The first step derived models to estimate various climate variables to latitude, longitude, and elevation using data from climate stations. Then, these climate variables were used along with soil moisture and nutrient data to predict site index for the site index plots. A two step approach was taken because climatic data were not available for the site index plots. The trend was for site index to increase with both increasing soil moisture and nutrients, although the site index decreased on the wetter sites. Site index also increased with DD5 at the rate of 1.2 m for every increase of 100 units in DD5. These models can be used together to evaluate the impact of various climate change scenarios on site index.  相似文献   

10.
At a national scale, the carbon (C) balance of numerous forest ecosystem C pools can be monitored using a stock change approach based on national forest inventory data. Given the potential influence of disturbance events and/or climate change processes, the statistical detection of changes in forest C stocks is paramount to maintaining the net sequestration status of these stocks. To inform the monitoring of forest C balances across large areas, a power analysis of a forest inventory of live/dead standing trees and downed dead wood C stocks (and components thereof) was performed in states of the Great Lakes region, U.S. Using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the U.S. Forest Service, it was found that a decrease in downed wood C stocks (?1.87 Mg/ha) was nearly offset by an increase in standing C stocks (1.77 Mg/ha) across the study region over a 5-year period. Carbon stock change estimates for downed dead wood and standing pools were statistically different from zero (α?=?0.10), while the net change in total woody C (?0.10 Mg/ha) was not statistically different from zero. To obtain a statistical power to detect change of 0.80 (α?=?0.10), standing live C stocks must change by at least 0.7 %. Similarly, standing dead C stocks would need to change by 3.8 %; while downed dead C stocks require a change of 6.9 %. While the U.S.’s current forest inventory design and sample intensity may not be able to statistically detect slight changes (<1 %) in forest woody C stocks at sub-national scales, large disturbance events (>3 % stock change) would almost surely be detected. Understanding these relationships among change detection thresholds, sampling effort, and Type I (α) error rates allows analysts to evaluate the efficacy of forest inventory data for C pool change detection at various spatial scales and levels of risk for drawing erroneous conclusions.  相似文献   

11.
This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8–12°N, 20°W–20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031–2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1–2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1–2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.  相似文献   

12.
Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
Paleo-data suggest that East African mountain treelines underwent an altitudinal shift during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Understanding the ecological and physiological processes underlying treeline response to such past climate change will help to improve forecasts of treeline change under future global warming. In spite of significant improvements in paleoclimatic reconstruction, the climatic conditions explaining this migration are still debated and important factors such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, the impact of lapse rate decreasing temperature along altitudinal gradients and rainfall modifications due to elevation have often been neglected or simplified. Here, we assess the effects of these different factors and estimate the influence of the most dominant factors controlling changes in past treeline position using a multi-proxy approach based on simulations from BIOME4, a coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model, modified to account for the effect of elevation on vegetation, compared with pollen, and isotopic data. The results indicate a shift in mountain vegetation at the LGM was controlled by low pCO2 and low temperatures promoting species morphologically and physiologically better adapted to LGM conditions than many trees composing the forest belt limit. Our estimate that the LGM climate was cooler than today’s by ?4.5 °C (range: ?4.3 to ?4.6 °C) at the upper limit of the treeline, whereas at 831 m it was cooler by ?1.4 °C (range: ?2.6 to ?0.6 °C), suggests that a possible lapse rate modification strongly constrained the upper limit of treeline, which may limit its potential extension under future global warming.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
We have found that a spatial interpolation of mean annual temperature (MAT) in China can be accomplished using a global ordinary least squares regression model since the relationship between temperature and its environmental determinants is constant. Therefore the estimation of MAT does not very across space and thus exhibits spatial stationarity. The interpolation of mean annual precipitation (MAP), however, is more complex and changes spatially as a function of topographic variation. Therefore, MAP shows spatial non-stationarity and must be estimated with a geographically weighted regression. A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output from a high accuracy and high speed method for surface modeling (HASM) with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that uses latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation is derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation, impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GWR-BC. In terms of HASM-OLS and HASM-GWR-BC, MAT had an increasing trend since the 1960s in China, with an especially accelerated increasing trend since 1980. Overall, our data show that MAT has increased by 1.44 °C since the 1960s. The warming rates increase from the south to north in China, except in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Specifically, the 2,100 °C?·?d contour line of annual accumulated temperature (AAT) of ≥10 °C shifted northwestward 255 km in the Heilongjiang province since the 1960s. MAP in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and in arid region had a continuously increasing trend. In the other 7 regions of China, MAP shows both increasing and decreasing trends. On average, China became wetter from the 1960s to the 1990s, but drier from the 1990s to 2000s. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Northern China experienced more climatic extremes than Southern China since the 1960s.  相似文献   

15.
An integrated process involving participatory and modelling approaches for prioritizing and evaluating climate change adaptation options for the Kangsabati reservoir catchment is presented here. We assess the potential effects of climate change on water resources and evaluate the ability of stakeholder prioritized adaptation options to address adaptation requirements using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Two adaptation options, check dams and increasing forest cover, are prioritized using pair-wise comparison and scenario analysis. Future streamflow projections are generated for the mid-21st century period (2021–2050) using four high resolution (~25 km) Regional Climate Models and their ensemble mean for SRES A1B scenario. WEAP simulations indicate that, compared to a base scenario without adaptation, both adaptation options reduce streamflow. In comparison to check dams, increasing forest cover shows greater ability to address adaptation requirements as demonstrated by the temporal pattern and magnitude of streamflow reduction. Additionally, over the 30 year period, effectiveness of check dams in reducing streamflow decreases by up to 40 %, while that of forest cover increases by up to 47 %. Our study highlights the merits of a comparative assessment of adaptation options and we conclude that a combined approach involving stakeholders, scenario analysis, modelling techniques and multi-model projections may support climate change adaptation decision-making in the face of uncertainty.  相似文献   

16.
Lin Ye  Nancy B. Grimm 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):419-431
The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m3/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha?1 d?1), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today’s mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.  相似文献   

17.
Assessments of the impacts of climate change typically require information at scales of 10 km or less. Such a resolution in global climate simulations is unlikely for at least two decades. We have developed an alternative to explicit resolution that provides a framework for meeting the needs of climate change impact assessment much sooner. We have applied to a global climate model a physically based subgrid-scale treatment of the influence of orography on temperature, clouds, precipitation, and land surface hydrology. The treatment represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of fractional area distributions of discrete elevation classes. For each class it calculates the height rise/descent of air parcels traveling through the grid cell, and applies the influence of the rise/descent to the temperature and humidity profiles of the elevation class. Cloud, radiative, and surface processes are calculated separately for each elevation class using the same physical parametrizations used by the model without the subgrid orography parametrization. The simulated climate fields for each elevation class can then be distributed in post-processing according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. Parallel 10-year simulations with and without the subgrid treatment have been performed. The simulated temperature, precipitation and snow water are mapped to 2.5-minute (~5 km) resolution and compared with gridded analyses of station measurements. The simulation with the subgrid scheme produces a much more realistic distribution of snow water and significantly more realistic distributions of temperature and precipitation than the simulation without the subgrid scheme. Moreover, the 250-km grid cell means of most other fields are virtually unchanged by the subgrid scheme. This suggests that the tuning of the climate model without the subgrid scheme is also applicable to the model with the scheme.  相似文献   

18.
Soil temperature data are critical for understanding land–atmosphere interactions. However, in many cases, they are limited at both spatial and temporal scales. In the current study, an attempt was made to predict monthly mean soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm using artificial neural networks (ANNs) over a large region with complex terrain. Gridded independent variables, including latitude, longitude, elevation, topographic wetness index, and normalized difference vegetation index, were derived from a digital elevation model and remote sensing images with a resolution of 1 km. The good performance and robustness of the proposed ANNs were demonstrated by comparisons with multiple linear regressions. On average, the developed ANNs presented a relative improvement of about 44 % in root mean square error, 70 % in mean absolute percentage error, and 18 % in coefficient of determination over classical linear models. The proposed ANN models were then applied to predict soil temperatures at unsampled locations across the study area. Spatiotemporal variability of soil temperature was investigated based on the obtained database. Future work will be needed to test the applicability of ANNs for estimating soil temperature at finer scales.  相似文献   

19.
Today’s forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability’s of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow’s forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions.  相似文献   

20.
Better understanding of urban microclimate and bioclimate of any city is imperative today when the world is constrained by both urbanisation and global climate change. Urbanisation generally triggers changes in land cover and hence influencing the urban local climate. Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania is one of the fast growing cities. Assessment of its urban climate and the human biometeorological conditions was done using the easily available synoptic meteorological data covering the period 2001–2011. In particular, the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated using the RayMan software and results reveal that the afternoon period from December to February (DJF season) is relatively the most thermal stressful period to human beings in Dar es Salaam where PET values of above 35 °C were found. Additionally, the diurnal cycle of the individual meteorological elements that influence the PET index were analysed and found that air temperature of 30–35 °C dominate the afternoon period from 12:00 to 15:00 hours local standard time at about 60 % of occurrence. The current results, though considered as preliminary to the ongoing urban climate study in the city, provide an insight on how urban climate research is of significant importance in providing useful climatic information for ensuring quality of life and wellbeing of city dwellers.  相似文献   

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