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1.
基于BP神经网络的降雨充水矿井涌水量预测   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
长沟峪煤矿矿井涌水量受降雨影响显著,曾经因降雨造成淹井事故。文章分析了长沟峪煤矿矿井充水因素及其影响程度,建立了矿井涌水量预测的BP网络模型,通过对2006年和2007年+141水平和+20水平矿井最大涌水量预测验证了该模型的可行性,并据此对不同降雨条件下的矿井涌水量进行了预测。  相似文献   

2.
矿井单位涌水量比拟法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
通过对风水沟煤矿矿井历年疏干排水资料的统计分析以及特征的研究,结合矿井水文地质条件,建立了不同开采水平、开拓面积的矿井单位涌水量比拟法计算公式,并对矿井的一、二采区的涌水量进行了分析预测。结果表明,矿井单位涌水量比拟法计算公式预测的2007、2008和2009年涌水量与实际疏干排水量之间的误差分别为6.5%、8.7%和7.9%,预测精度较高,值得借鉴推广。  相似文献   

3.
为了准确预测盘县煤田内各矿井涌水量,以盘关向斜火烧铺煤矿为例,首先从区域水文地质分析入手,其次收集整理矿井40多年地质勘探、矿井涌水量、降雨量、采空区、开采标高、煤炭采出量等相关因素数据,然后分析与矿井涌水量的关系,建立矿井涌水量与相关因素的多元回归计算模型;之后应用该模型对矿井6个开采水平9个块段进行了矿井涌水量预测,最后对比与解析法、比拟法计算的结果。结果表明,矿井涌水量与上述各相关因素呈正相关性,解析法计算结果偏小;上述特征在整个盘县煤田内具有典型性,相关因素分析法可以作为井田内及相邻煤田矿井涌水量计算方法,可为其它矿井提供比拟对象。  相似文献   

4.
针对矿井涌水量时间序列的分形与灰色特征,采用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法)确定涌水量时间序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期,在一个周期内建立等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)预测模型。充分利用最新信息,提高模型预测精度。运用基于R/S分析法的GM(1,1)模型对陕北某矿矿井涌水量进行分析预测,结果表明,模型拟合程度好,预测精度高,能够为矿井安全生产提供决策依据。   相似文献   

5.
集贤矿区地质勘探报告中预测的矿井涌水量是250m^3/h,但目前矿井实际涌水量达1700~2000m^3/h,通过对开采前后水文地质资料的分析对比与研究认为,对矿井开采后地下水动力条件的变化缺乏足够认识,采用的矿井涌水量预测模型与实际情况不符是导致预测的矿井涌水带与实际涌水量相筹很大的主要原因。  相似文献   

6.
风化基岩与烧变岩含水层严重威胁着陕北侏罗纪煤田矿井的安全生产,精确预测其富水性与工作面涌水量对矿井防治水具有重要意义。针对具有密切水力联系的风化基岩与烧变岩含水层,以陕西红柳林煤矿15217工作面所在区域为研究区,选取含水层厚度、岩性组合指数、岩石烧变及风化程度指数、岩心采取率为评价指标,提出了基于蝠鲼觅食算法优化支持向量机的含水层富水性预测方法,通过对风化基岩与烧变岩含水层富水性的精准分区预测,将工作面划分为不同富水等级的区段。在此基础上,分析经过长时间井下疏放水后的工作面采前水文地质条件,利用动静储量法对工作面不同富水等级区段的涌水量进行预测,与矿井生产过程中的涌水量实测数据相比,涌水量预测结果误差整体较小,介于0.30~6.98 m3/h,表明此预测方法可行度与准确率较高,为红柳林煤矿及类似条件矿井工作面涌水量预测提供了新的思路与方法。  相似文献   

7.
《地下水》2021,(1)
基于云南某矿山矿井涌水量时序数据,运用时间序列分析软件EViews 8.0经过差分运算、模型定阶、模型识别、模型检验等步骤建立了合适的ARIMA模型ARIMA(0,1,2)。利用该模型对该矿井2017年7-11月的涌水量进行预测,得出了预测结果,并与实际数据进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:预测结果与实际数据最大相对误差为6.0%,最小相对误差为1.8%,平均相对误差2.5%,与实测数据有较好的拟合,预测效果较好,说明了ARIMA模型可以用于矿井涌水量预测,并可为矿井涌水量预报和水害防治工作提供依据。  相似文献   

8.
针对煤层回采工作面顶板涌水量超前预测精度低,预测结果的时间空间概念不清,对生产实际的指导性不强等问题,从煤层回采的时空变化和地下水流演化过程入手,从理论上分析了以大井法、廊道法为代表的解析法预测工作面顶板涌水量存在的主要问题,提出了浅埋煤层回采过程中顶板含水层充水水量由脉动式静储水量释放与渐增式动态补给水量共同组成,并给出了随矿井采掘过程进行的渐进式矿井涌水量时空动态预测方法,不仅计算了全矿井涌水量的大小,也给出了涌水量的时间变化过程和空间分布特征。大大提高了预测结果的精度,对生产有实际指导意义。结合一实际矿井的采掘规划与生产接续计划,引进了新增水量、干扰水量及残余水量的概念,计算预测了矿井2011年-2015年生产过程中矿井涌水量及其动态变化过程。   相似文献   

9.
田洪胜 《地下水》2013,(3):19-21
矿井涌水量的准确预测评价是矿井防治水工作的基础和依据,但同时也是矿井水文地质中的一项复杂而又困难的工作。讨论矿井涌水量预测中的常见方法,分析这些方法的基本原理,要综合运用,取长补短,在实践中选择合适的预测方法,才能正确预测评价矿井涌水量,有效的防治煤矿水害。  相似文献   

10.
矿井涌水量混沌时间序列分析与预测   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
矿井地下水系统是个非线性系统,由于地下水系统的复杂性,很难完全确定影响矿井涌水量的因素,因此传统的矿井涌水预测表现出较大的局限性。而混沌时间序列分析能够利用单变量处理方法,分析矿井地下水系统中,由于多因素耦合作用所产生的矿井涌水量时间序列。通过对某矿区1985年9月至2005年2月矿井涌水量时间序列资料的分析,显示矿井涌水量时间序列具有混沌特征;通过对比预测值和实测值,表明预测精度高。因此,混沌时间序列分析方法用于矿井涌水量预测是可行的。  相似文献   

11.
Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry in South Wales yielded a rich cache of fossils in the early 1950s, including articulated specimens of new species (the small sauropodomorph dinosaur Pantydraco caducus and the crocodylomorph Terrestrisuchus gracilis), but no substantial study of the wider fauna of the Pant-y-ffynnon fissure systems has been published. Here, our overview of existing specimens, a few described but mostly undescribed, as well as freshly processed material, provides a comprehensive picture of the Pant-y-ffynnon palaeo-island of the Late Triassic. This was an island with a relatively impoverished fauna dominated by small clevosaurs (rhynchocephalians), including a new species, Clevosaurus cambrica, described here from a partially articulated specimen and isolated bones. The new species has a dental morphology that is intermediate between the Late Triassic Clevosaurus hudsoni, from Cromhall Quarry to the east, and the younger C. convallis from Pant Quarry to the west, suggesting adaptive radiation of clevosaurs in the palaeo-archipelago. The larger reptiles on the palaeo-island do not exceed 1.5?m in length, including a small carnivorous crocodylomorph, Terrestrisuchus, and a possible example of insular dwarfism in the basal dinosaur Pantydraco.  相似文献   

12.
Lithostratigraphy, physicochemical stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and geochronology of the 77–70 Ma old series bracketing the Campanian–Maastrichtian boundary have been investigated by 70 experts. For the first time, direct relationships between macro- and microfossils have been established, as well as direct and indirect relationships between chemo-physical and biostratigraphical tools. A combination of criteria for selecting the boundary level, duration estimates, uncertainties on durations and on the location of biohorizons have been considered; new chronostratigraphic units are proposed. The geological site at Tercis is accepted by the Commission on Stratigraphy as the international reference for the stratigraphy of the studied interval. To cite this article: G.S. Odin, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 409–414.  相似文献   

13.
Robert L. Linnen   《Lithos》2005,80(1-4):267-280
The solubilities of columbite, tantalite, wolframite, rutile, zircon and hafnon were determined as a function of the water contents in peralkaline and subaluminous granite melts. All experiments were conducted at 1035 °C and 2 kbar and the water contents of the melts ranged from nominally dry to approximately 6 wt.% H2O. Accessory phase solubilities are not affected by the water content of the peralkaline melt. By contrast, solubilities are affected by the water content of the subaluminous melt, where the solubilities of all the accessory phases examined increase with the water content of the melt, up to 2 wt.% H2O. At higher water contents, solubilities are nearly constant. It can be concluded that water is not an important control of accessory phase solubility, although the water content will affect diffusivities of components in the melt, thus whether or not accessory phases will be present as restite material. The solubility behaviour in the subaluminous and peralkaline melts supports previous spectroscopic studies, which have observed differences in the coordination of high field strength elements in dry vs. wet subaluminous granitic glasses, but not for peralkaline granitic glasses. Lastly, the fact that wolframite solubility increases with increasing water content in the subaluminous melt suggests that tungsten dissolved as a hexavalent species.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Calcite samples were extracted both from the rock matrix and the superficial coating of a karstified fault plane of an underground quarry, located in the eastern border of the Paris basin. The karstification is dated as Quaternary. Analysis of mechanical calcite twinning reveals that only the calcite matrix has also undergone a compression trending WNW that can be attributed to the Mio-Pliocene alpine collision. Both coating and matrix have undergone a strike-slip regime with σ1 roughly trending north–south, that could correspond to the regional present-day state of stress, a strike-slip compression rather trending NNW, modified by local phenomena. To cite this article: M. Rocher et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).  相似文献   

16.
正20141520 Bo Ying(Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment,MLR,Beijing 100037,China);Liu Chenglin Saline Spring Hydrochemical Characteristics and Indicators for Potassium Exploration in Southwestern and Northern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang(Acta Geoscientica Sinica,ISSN1006-3021,CN11-3474/P,34(5),2013,p.594-602,5 illus.,3 tables,28 refs.)  相似文献   

17.
正20141243Chen Ge(Hangzhou Research Institute of Petroleum Geology,PetroChina,Hangzhou 310023,China);Si Chunsong Study on Sedimentary Numerical Simulation Method of Fan Delta Sand Body(Journal of Geology,  相似文献   

18.
正20142599Chen Sanming(Guangxi Key Laboratory of Concealed Deposits Exploration,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin541004,China);He Yuzhou Block Model and Reserves Estimation of Panzhihua Iron Deposit Based on 3D Geological Modeling(Journal of Guilin University of Technology,ISSN1674-9057,CN45-1375/N,33(4),2013,p.610-615,9illus.,1table,15refs.)  相似文献   

19.
正20140594 Bai Daoyuan(Hunan Institute of Geology Survey,Changsha 410016,China);Zhong Xiang Faults in the Jingzhou Basin and Their Tectonic Settings(Geotectonica et Metallogenia,ISSN1001-1552,CN44-1595/P,37(2),2013,p.173-183,6illus.,59refs.)Key words:basin evolution,tectonic setting,South China In the Upper Paleozoic and Jurassic se-  相似文献   

20.
正20141912Cao Hui(State Key Laboratory for Continental Tectonics and Dynamics,Institute of Geology,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)Gravitational Collapse and Folding during Orogenesis:A Comparative Study of FIA Trends and Fold Axial Plane Traces(Geology in China,ISSN1000-3657,CN11-1167/P,40(6),2013,p.1818-1828,9illus.,35refs.,with  相似文献   

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