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1.
This project is aimed at bridging the three planes, from basic research, through enabling processes, to engineered systems. At the basic research plane, we have been working to improve our collective understanding about obstacles to implementing mitigation practices, owner decision processes (in connection with other MCEER projects), and public policy processes. At the level of enabling processes, we have been seeking to develop an understanding of how obstacles to greater mitigation can be overcome by improved policy design and processes. At the engineered systems plane, our work is intended to result in practical guidelines for devising policies and programs with appropriate motivation and incentives for implementing policies and programs once adopted. This phase of the research has been aimed, first, at a thorough, multidisciplinary review of the literature concerning obstacles to implementation. Second, the research has focused on advancing the state of the art by developing means for integrating the insights offered by diverse perspectives on the implementation process from the several social, behavioral, and decision sciences. The research establishes a basis for testing our understanding of these processes in the case of hospital retrofit decisions. Supported by: the National Science Foundation, Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program through MCEER.  相似文献   

2.
This paper considers a pollution economics and control problem which uses a queuing framework. This approach is shown to establish a link between a firms economic activity and its linkages to externalities such as pollution, environmental control (as would be considered by an environmental agency) and a number of variables commonly encountered in such problems. A number of environmental issues are addressed and a Stackleberg game is formulated between the environmental regulating agency and polluting firms where the firm is assumed to be a follower, maximizing its profits while the environmental agency is a leader, assumed to be a long run average cost manager. The solution we propose is based on the agencys internalizing externalities at firms expense using both subsidies for pollution abatement and penalties. In this framework, environmental costs penalties, incentive for pollution abatement investment and the sampling probabilities of environmental controls are determined.  相似文献   

3.
The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target to reduce the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by the year 2015 has been met as of 2010, but huge disparities exist. Some regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa are lagging behind it is also in this region where up to 30% of the rural schemes are not functional at any given time. There is need for more studies on factors affecting sustainability and necessary measures which when implemented will improve the sustainability of rural water schemes. The main objective of this study was to assess the main factors affecting the sustainability of rural water schemes in Swaziland using a Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach. The main factors considered were: financial, social, technical, environmental and institutional. The study was done in Lubombo region. Fifteen functional water schemes in 11 communities were studied. Data was collected using questionnaires, checklist and focused group discussion guide. A total of 174 heads of households were interviewed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyse the data and to calculate sustainability scores for water schemes. SPSS was also used to classify sustainability scores according to sustainability categories: sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable. The averages of the ratings for the different sub-factors studied and the results on the sustainability scores for the sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable schemes were then computed and compared to establish the main factors influencing sustainability of the water schemes. The results indicated technical and social factors as most critical while financial and institutional, although important, played a lesser role. Factors which contributed to the sustainability of water schemes were: functionality; design flow; water fetching time; ability to meet additional demand; use by population; equity; participation in decision making on operation and maintenance; existence of fund for operation and maintenance; willingness to contribute money; existence of a user’s committee; participation in the initial planning and design of the water scheme; and coordination between the local leaders and user’s committee. The main factors which made the schemes unsustainable were: long fetching time; non-involvement in decision making; lack of willingness to contribute funds; absence of users committee; and lack of cooperation between local leaders and the users committee. Water service providers should address the technical, social, financial and institutional factors identified affecting sustainability in their planning and implementation of rural water schemes.  相似文献   

4.
The European Union set in place Directive 2000/59/EC with the aim of substantially reducing discharges of ship-generated waste into the sea by improving the availability and use of port reception facilities. According to the Directive, port administrations shall ensure that the cost recovery system must aim to discourage ships from discharging their waste into the sea, while simultaneously placing the burden of costs on ships, in line with the "polluter pays principle". The present paper examines the extent to which the deposit-refund framework could be used in charging systems of port reception facilities. This has been realized through a case study involving a Greek port. Specifically, the charging system proposed here seems to approach quite close to the primary target, i.e. to a charging system that motivates ships to act more environmentally responsible manner regarding their waste, without significantly affecting their total cost nor the competitiveness of the port.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human–flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system.  相似文献   

6.
高爽  魏也华  陈雯 《湖泊科学》2012,24(1):17-26
环境规制已成为促进区域发展方式转变和经济可持续发展的重要驱动力.本文以无锡市太湖水危机事件为例,首先对水危机前后的环境规制政策和手段进行对比分析,其次结合现有理论研究,总结了环境规制对制造业产业结构优化和绩效影响的理论框架,最后在对环境规制强度进行定量评估和对影响产业绩效各要素分析的基础上对理论框架进行验证.环境规制强度的评价结果表明,水危机事件后,环境规制强度显著增加,政府、技术、市场及社会工具的环境规制强度均值在2007-2009年期间比2001-2006年期间分别增加了2.2、1.0、2.6、0.7倍,政府在加强行政管理的同时开始积极探索市场化治理的工具,但以政府规制为主的治理模式仍然没有改变.回归结果进一步表明环境规制通过影响企业准入和提高技术效率,实现产业结构的优化和生产效率的提高,抵消了环境规制对生产成本增加而产生的消极作用,但是创新仍没有成为产业绩效增加的最主要动力.本研究对探讨经济和环境可持续发展模式以及环境规制手段的合理运用具有重要的理论借鉴意义.  相似文献   

7.
The performance and serviceability of structural systems during their lifetime can be significantly affected by the occurrence of extreme events. Despite their low probability, there is a potential for multiple occurrences of such hazards during the relatively long service life of systems. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the assessment of lifecycle cost of infrastructures subject to multiple hazard events throughout their decision‐making time horizon. The framework entails the lifecycle costs of maintenance and repair, as well as the salvage value of the structure at the end of the decision‐making time horizon. The primary features of the proposed framework include accounting for the possibility of multiple hazard occurrences, incorporating effects of incomplete repair actions on the accumulated damage through damage state‐dependent repair times, and requiring limited resources in terms of input data and computational costs. A dynamic programming procedure is proposed to calculate the expected damage condition of the structure for each possibility of the number of hazard incidents based on state‐dependent fragility curves. The proposed framework is applied to a moment‐frame building located in a region with high seismicity, and lifecycle costs are evaluated for six retrofit plans. The results displayed variation in the ranking of the retrofit actions with respect to decision‐making time horizon. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses demonstrated that disregarding repair time in the lifecycle cost analysis can result in false identification of unsafe retrofit actions as optimal and reliable strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
《Water Policy》2001,3(2):165-174
Water agencies are often faced with the need to estimate the value of water service reliability. Since no explicit market for water supply reliability exists, this study indirectly measures consumers’ valuation of water supply reliability using the contingent valuation method (CVM). Respondents were asked to indicate their willingness to pay in order to avoid the occurrence of water shortages of a given frequency and severity. We employed a “double bounded” dichotomous choice model. The results indicate that customers are willing to pay as much as $16.92/month to avoid a 50% water shortage occurring every 20 years. The goal of such a study is to provide a framework with which water agencies can determine and pursue policies appropriate to the level of reliability desired by customers. The values resulting from the analysis can be assessed in terms of options and the practical bounds of options.  相似文献   

9.
With a high population density, immense commercial and industrial activities, Hong Kong produces over two million tonnes of municipal wastewater each day. Until recently, about 50% of the municipal wastewater enters water courses, rivers, and coastal waters without treatment. Untreated organics, heavy metals and refractory synthetic materials accumulate in certain areas, and have led to breakdown of aquatic and marine ecological systems, closure of beaches, red tides and bioaccumulation in seafood. In 1974, a team of consultants was commissioned to study the water pollution problems encountered in Hong Kong. After two decades in the effort to improve the water environment, a flexible framework for environmental planning and management over the following ten years has been designed. This programme comprises (1) establishment of water control zones and pollution control legislation, (2) upgrading of services and facilities for management of municipal sewage and chemical wastes, and (3) construction of the "Strategic Sewage Disposal Scheme". In line with this programme, a priority has been set on implementing a "polluter pays policy" which requires the industries to share the costs of sewage treatment and encourages them to install on-site wastewater pretreatment facilities to reduce wastewater generation and to ensure sustainable development.  相似文献   

10.
This study introduces a hybrid optimization approach for flood management under multiple uncertainties. An inexact two-stage integer programming (ITIP) model and its dual formation are developed by integrating the concepts of mixed-integer and interval-parameter programming techniques into a general framework of two-stage stochastic programming. The proposed approach provides a linkage to pre-defined management policies, deals with capacity-expansion planning issues, and reflects various uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and discrete intervals for a flood management system. Penalties are imposed when the policies are violated. The marginal costs are determined based on dual formulation of the ITIP model, and their effects on the optimal solutions are investigated. The developed model is applied to a case study of flood management. The solutions of binary variables represent the decisions of flood-diversion–capacity expansion within a multi-region, multi-flow-level, and multi-option context. The solutions of continuous variables are related to decisions of flood diversion toward different regions. The solutions of dual variables indicate the decisions of marginal costs associated with the resources of regions’ capacity, water availability, and allowable diversions. The results show that the proposed approach could obtain reliable solutions and adequately support decision making in flood management.  相似文献   

11.
Secondary drainage canals have the potential to effectively mitigate excess nitrogen loads from diffuse and point sources. In vegetated (Phragmites australis and Typha latifolia) and in unvegetated canals subjected to diffuse and point pollution, nitrogen removal was evaluated by means of simple in–out mass balance and potential uptake by macrophytes was estimated from biomass data. Results suggest an elevated control of nitrogen in vegetated ditches receiving point source of pollution (average abatement of 50% of the total N load per linear km), whereas removal processes are much less effective in unvegetated ditches. The comparison between net abatement and plant uptake, highlights the presence of other unaccounted for processes responsible for a relevant percentage of total N removal. Overall, results from this study suggest the importance of actions aiming at the appropriate management of emergent vegetation, in order to improve its direct and indirect metabolic functions and maximize nitrogen removal in impacted watersheds.  相似文献   

12.
Efforts to reduce land‐based non‐point source (NPS) pollutions from watersheds to coastal waters are ongoing all around the world. In this study, annual yield of NPS nitrogen (NPS‐N) pollution in Jiaodong Peninsula, China from 1979 to 2008 was estimated. The results showed that: from 1979 to 2008, NPS‐N yields exhibited significant inter‐annual variations and an increasing trend on decadal scale. High NPS‐N yield was mainly found in east and south parts, as well as the urbanized coastal regions in Jiaodong Peninsula. Among the 32 river basins, the three largest basins yielded more than 41.16% of the NPS‐N. However, some small coastal watersheds along the South Yellow Sea and Jiaozhou Bay had higher per unit area yield. Most of the small watersheds characterized by seasonal runoff had coastal waters pertain to mild and moderate pollution levels. The ratio of watershed area to shoreline length and the up‐stream land use had significant impacts on NPS‐N flux through the shoreline. Among the four adjacent coastal areas of Jiaodong Peninsula, Jiaozhou Bay was the most noteworthy one not only because of high levels of land‐based NPS‐N pollution but also because of its nearly enclosed structure. The combination between integrated coastal zone management and integrated river basin management, land use planning and landscape designing in Jiaodong Peninsula is recommended. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
基于SWAT模型的南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染模拟   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  
李爽  张祖陆  孙媛媛 《湖泊科学》2013,25(2):236-242
本文利用SWAT模型结合实测数据,对南四湖流域2001-2010年年均非点源氮磷污染进行模拟,分析了南四湖流域非点源氮磷负荷空间分布特征,计算各河流流域对南四湖湖区污染的贡献率,并对非点源氮磷污染严重的关键区进行识别.研究表明:(1)先模拟湖东和湖西的两个典型小流域的非点源氮磷污染,并将模型推及整个南四湖流域,该方法不仅提高了计算效率,且得到了较好的模拟结果.通过对比发现,湖东的模拟效果要好于湖西,一定程度上说明SWAT模型在起伏较大的地区能取得更高的精度.(2)南四湖流域非点源氮磷污染严重,几乎所有区域的氮负荷超标,40%以上的区域磷负荷超标严重.湖东非点源氮磷污染较湖西严重,其中洸府河流域是南四湖湖区非点源氮磷污染的主要贡献者.(3)通过对径流量、泥沙负荷、氮负荷、磷负荷的相关分析可以得出,南四湖流域非点源氮负荷以溶解态为主,随径流进入水体;非点源磷负荷以吸附态为主,随泥沙进入水体.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper, aconceptual evolutionary framework for aseismic decision support for hospitalsthat attempts to integrate a range of engineering and sociotechnical models is presented. Genetic algorithms are applied to find the optimal decision sets. A case study is completed to demonstrate how the frameworkmay applytoa specific hospital.The simulations show that the proposed evolutionary decision support framework is able to discover robust policy sets in either uncertain or fixed environments. The framework also qualitatively identifies some of the characteristicbehavior of the critical care organization. Thus, by utilizing the proposedframework, the decision makers are able to make more informed decisions, especially toenhance the seismic safety of the hospitals.  相似文献   

15.
This paper develops a new method for decision-making under uncertainty. The method, Bayesian Programming (BP), addresses a class of two-stage decision problems with features that are common in environmental and water resources. BP is applicable to two-stage combinatorial problems characterized by uncertainty in unobservable parameters, only some of which is resolved upon observation of the outcome of the first-stage decision. The framework also naturally accommodates stochastic behavior, which has the effect of impeding uncertainty resolution. With the incorporation of systematic methods for decision search and Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian analysis, BP addresses limitations of other decision-analytic approaches for this class of problems, including conventional decision tree analysis and stochastic programming. The methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative problem of water quality pollution control. Its effectiveness for this problem is compared to alternative approaches, including a single-stage model in which expected costs are minimized and a deterministic model in which uncertain parameters are replaced by their mean values. A new term, the expected value of including uncertainty resolution, or EVIUR, is introduced and evaluated for the illustrative problem. It is a measure of the worth of incorporating the experimental value of decisions into an optimal decision-making framework. For the illustrative problem, the two-stage adaptive management framework extracted up to approximately 50% of the gains of perfect information. The strength and limitations of the method are discussed and conclusions are presented.  相似文献   

16.
EPA's approach for developing, evaluating, and selecting ground water response actions at Superfund sites with contaminated ground water involves a series of key decisions to support necessary actions. These actions include the following:
Planning how the site will be managed
Determining data needs
Determining remedial action objectives
Developing alternatives
Selecting and implementing the remedy.
The key decisions should reflect a policy and decision-making approach developed within the framework of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA 1980) as amended by the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA 1986) and program policies to implement these acts. This paper outlines a flexible, iterative process, described in detail in the Guidance on Remedial Actions for Contaminated Ground Water at Superfund Sites (U.S. EPA 1988), by which ground water remedies can be identified, evaluated, selected, and implemented at Superfund sites beginning with initial site investigation tasks and ending with evaluation of implemented actions. Proper consideration of the factors presented in this paper should result in an efficient, effective procedure for making remedial action decisions for contaminated ground water that ensures protection of human health and the environment.  相似文献   

17.
Managing nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution of groundwater systems is a significant challenge because of the heterogeneous nature of the subsurface, high costs of data collection, and the multitude of scales involved. In this study, we assessed a particularly complex NPS groundwater pollution problem in Michigan, namely, the salinization of shallow aquifer systems due to natural upwelling of deep brines. We applied a system-based approach to characterize, across multiple scales, the integrated groundwater quantity–quality dynamics associated with the brine upwelling process, assimilating a variety of modeling tools and data—including statewide water well datasets scarcely used for larger scientific analysis. Specifically, we combined (1) data-driven modeling of massive amounts of groundwater/geologic information across multiple spatial scales with (2) detailed analysis of groundwater salinity dynamics and process-based flow modeling at local scales. Statewide “hotspots” were delineated and county-level severity rankings were developed based on dissolved chloride (Cl−) concentration percentiles. Within local hotspots, the relative impact of upwelling was determined to be controlled by: (1) streams—which act as “natural pumps” that bring deeper (more mineralized) groundwater to the surface; (2) the occurrence of nearly impervious geologic material at the surface—which restricts fresh water dilution of deeper, saline groundwater; and (3) the space–time evolution of water well withdrawals—which induces slow migration of saline groundwater from its natural course. This multiscale, data-intensive approach significantly improved our understanding of the brine upwelling processes in Michigan, and has applicability elsewhere given the growing availability of statewide water well databases.  相似文献   

18.
Increasing water demands, higher standards of living, depletion of resources of acceptable quality and excessive water pollution due to agricultural and industrial expansions have caused intense social and political predicaments, and conflicting issues among water consumers. The available techniques commonly used in reservoir optimization/operation do not consider interaction, behavior and preferences of water users, reservoir operator and their associated modeling procedures, within the stochastic modeling framework. In this paper, game theory is used to present the associated conflicts among different consumers due to limited water. Considering the game theory fundamentals, the Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game with perfect information (PSDNG) model is developed, which assumes that the decision maker has sufficient (perfect) information regarding the associated randomness of reservoir operation parameters. The simulated annealing approach (SA) is applied as a part of the proposed stochastic framework, which makes the PSDNG solution conceivable. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the Zayandeh-Rud river basin in Iran with conflicting demands. The results are compared with alternative reservoir operation models, i.e., Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming (BSDP), sequential genetic algorithm (SGA) and classical dynamic programming regression (DPR). Results show that the proposed model has the ability to generate reservoir operating policies, considering interactions of water users, reservoir operator and their preferences.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
For efficient and targeted management, this study demonstrates a recently developed non-point source (NPS) pollution model for a year-long estimation in the Pingqiao River Basin (22.3 km2) in China. This simple but physically reasonable model estimates NPS export in terms of land use by reflecting spatial hydrological features and source runoff measurements under different land-use types. The NPS export was separately analysed by a distributed hydrological model, a spatial hydrograph-separation technique, and an empirical water quality sub-model. Simulation results suggest that 57 890 kg of total nitrogen (TN) and 1148 kg of total phosphorus (TP) were delivered. The results, validated with observed stream concentrations, show relative errors of 23.3% for TN and 47.4% for TP. Countermeasures for urban areas (5.3% of total area) were prioritized because of the high contribution rate to TN (14.1%) and TP (26.2%) which is caused by the high degree of runoff (8.5%) and pollution source.  相似文献   

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