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1.
Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions.  相似文献   

2.
The Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector as a whole accounts for more than 80% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in Nepal. This study estimates the GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector in the business as usual (BAU) case during 2010–2050 and identifies the economically attractive countermeasures to abate GHG emissions from the sector at different carbon prices. It also estimates the carbon price elasticity of GHG abatement from the sector. The study finds that enteric fermentation processes in the livestock and emissions from agricultural soils are the two major contributors of GHG emission in AFOLU sector. It identifies no-regret abatement options in the AFOLU sector that could mitigate about 41.5% of the total GHG emission during 2016–2050 in the BAU scenario. There would be a net cumulative carbon sequestration of 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) at $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) during the period. Carbon price above $75/tCO2e is not found to be much effective in achieving significant additional reduction in GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector.  相似文献   

3.
Humans have changed most of the terrestrial surface by changing land-use and land-cover. The spatial distribution and extent of land-cover changes have been studied and mapped widely, using remote sensing and geospatial technologies. Although there are numerous studies on the human decisions underlying such changes, they are limited to local case-studies. How such local-scale patterns of decision-making can be used to explain land-use change globally is unknown. Using a collection of local studies from a literature review, we studied the contextual conditions of different modes of land-use change decision-making and present global maps of the potential distribution of decision-making in land-use change. We find that decision-making in land-use can be explained, to a large extent, by the socio-economic, climatic and soil conditions of a location, captured by global data proxies of these conditions. Survival and livelihood objectives are positively associated to the spatial variation in childhood malnutrition and distance to roads, and negatively to total economic output of an area. Economic objectives on the other hand, are positively associated to total economic output, but also to the annual precipitation at the location. Similar trends are observed when looking at more detailed decision-making types: survivalist, subsistence-oriented and market-oriented smallholder decision-making types are more likely found in areas with higher poverty levels and overall lower levels of socio-economic development. The spatial distribution can be used to understand the occurrence of land-use intensification trajectories and to account for variation in decision-making in global land-use models. Finally, we provide a representation of the spread of case-studies and which contexts are poorly represented by case-studies.  相似文献   

4.
Affluence drives the global displacement of land use   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries.  相似文献   

5.
Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.  相似文献   

6.
The volume of agricultural trade increased by more than ten times throughout the past six decades and is likely to continue with high rates in the future. Thereby, it largely affects environment and climate. We analyse future trade scenarios covering the period of 2005–2045 by evaluating economic and environmental effects using the global land-use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”). This is the first trade study using spatially explicit mapping of land use patterns and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on three scenarios: the reference scenario fixes current trade patterns, the policy scenario follows a historically derived liberalisation pathway, and the liberalisation scenario assumes a path, which ends with full trade liberalisation in 2045.Further trade liberalisation leads to lower global costs of food. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for cereals and oil crops and China for livestock products will export more. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Deforestation, mainly in Latin America, leads to significant amounts of additional carbon emissions due to trade liberalisation. Non-CO2 emissions will mostly shift to China due to comparative advantages in livestock production and rising livestock demand in the region. Overall, further trade liberalisation leads to higher economic benefits at the expense of environment and climate, if no other regulations are put in place.  相似文献   

7.
Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined global ranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted to study the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibration and uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts by employing Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM was designed to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within a common modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complex mosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem, importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing.The model forcing data and surface flux data were collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. For each site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well as realistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parameter sets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges gives similar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce some unreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simple mode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and model complexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posterior probability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes.Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has more significant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.  相似文献   

8.
Land use and land cover interact with atmospheric conditions to determine current climate conditions, as well, as the impact of climate change and environmental variability on ecological systems. Such interactions are ubiquitous, yet changes in LULC are generally made without regard to their biophysical implications. This review considers the potential for LULC to compound, confound, or even contradict changes expected from climate change alone. These properties give LULC the potential to be used as powerful tools capable of modifying local climate and contributing significantly to the net impact of climate change. Management practices based modifications of LULC patterns and processes could be applied strategically to increase the resilience of vulnerable ecological systems and facilitate climate adaptation. These interventions build on the traditional competencies of land management and land protection organizations and suggest that these institutions have a central role in determining the ecological impact of climate change and the development of strategies for adaptation. The practical limits to the use of LULC-based tools also suggest important inflection points between manageable and dangerous levels of climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Carbon storage and catchment hydrology are influenced both by land use changes and climatic changes, but there are few studies addressing both responses under both driving forces. We investigated the relative importance of climate change vs. land use change for four Alpine catchments using the LPJ-GUESS model. Two scenarios of grassland management were calibrated based on the more detailed model PROGRASS. The simulations until 2100 show that only reforestation could lead to an increase of carbon storage under climatic change, whereby a cessation of carbon accumulation occurred in all catchments after 2050. The initial increase in carbon storage was attributable mainly to forest re-growth on abandoned land, whereas the stagnation and decline in the second half of the century was mainly driven by climate change. If land was used more intensively, i.e. as grassland, litter input to the soil decreased due to harvesting, resulting in a decline of soil carbon storage (1.2−2.9 kg C m–2) that was larger than the climate-induced change (0.8–1.4 kg C m−2). Land use change influenced transpiration both directly and in interaction with climate change. The response of forested catchments diverged with climatic change (11–40 mm increase in AET), reflecting the differences in forest age, topography and water holding capacity within and between catchments. For grass-dominated catchments, however, transpiration responded in a similar manner to climate change (light management: 23–32 mm AET decrease, heavy management: 29–44 mm AET decrease), likely because grassroots are concentrated in the uppermost soil layers. Both the water and the carbon cycle were more strongly influenced by land use compared to climatic changes, as land use had not only a direct effect on carbon storage and transpiration, but also an indirect effect by modifying the climate change response of transpiration and carbon flux in the catchments. For the carbon cycle, climate change led to a cessation of the catchment response (sink/source strength is limited), whereas for the water cycle, the effect of land use change remains evident throughout the simulation period (changes in evapotranspiration do not attenuate). Thus we conclude that management will have a large potential to influence the carbon and water cycle, which needs to be considered in management planning as well as in climate and hydrological modelling.  相似文献   

10.
In order to properly assess the climate impact of temporary carbon sequestration and storage projects through land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), it is important to consider their temporal aspect. Dynamic life cycle assessment (dynamic LCA) was developed to account for time while assessing the potential impact of life cycle greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. In this paper, the dynamic LCA approach is applied to a temporary carbon sequestration project through afforestation, and the results are compared with those of the two principal ton-year approaches: the Moura-Costa and the Lashof methods. The dynamic LCA covers different scenarios, which are distinguished by the assumptions regarding what happens at the end of the sequestration period. In order to ascertain the degree of compensation of an emission through a LULUCF project, the ratio of the cumulative impact of the project to the cumulative impact of a baseline GHG emission is calculated over time. This ratio tends to 1 when assuming that, after the end of the sequestration project period, the forest is maintained indefinitely. Conversely, the ratio tends to much lower values in scenarios where part of the carbon is released back to the atmosphere due to e.g. fire or forest exploitation. The comparison of dynamic LCA with the ton-year approaches shows that it is a more flexible approach as it allows the consideration of every life cycle stage of the project and it gives decision makers the opportunity to test the sensitivity of the results to the choice of different time horizons.  相似文献   

11.
Summary Richards equation, which is the key relationship for addressing basic soil hydrological processes within the rhizosphere and constitutes the basis for multiple-layer soil hydrology models for meteorological studies, is modified to include two vegetation processes: the transpiration (daytime) and hydraulic lift (nighttime). The analytical form of the adjoint system is derived and can serve as the guideline for discrete forms, as implemented in a variety of multiple layer land surface models. The modified equation and its adjoint model may be used to address at least two types of inverse problems: estimation of the initial soil moisture contents from sparse observations of related quantities; and retrieval of critical soil/vegetation parameters with observations of soil moisture contents (or other related quantities) distributed over a certain period of time. The former may be of more interest for numerical weather prediction studies, whereas the latter may be more valuable for longer time integration of climate models.  相似文献   

12.
The need for a well-defined lower boundary condition for atmospheric numerical models is well documented. This paper describes the formulation of a land surface parameterization, which will be used in atmospheric boundary-layer and mesoscale numerical models. The land surface model has three soil layers for the prediction of soil moisture and soil temperature. Model soil properties depend on soil texture and moisture content. A homogeneous distribution of vegetation is also included, so that transpiration may be included, as well as the interception of precipitation by vegetation elements. The simulated vegetation also affects the mean surface albedo and roughness characteristics.First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) data are used to verify the model. Three cases during the growing season were chosen, each case having different amounts of vegetation cover. Stand alone simulations, where observations of atmospheric and radiation variables are input to the land surface model, were performed. These simulations show that the model is able to reproduce observed surface energy budgets and surface temperatures reasonably well. The RMS differences between modeled and obsered turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture are quite comparable to those reported by more detailed land surface models.  相似文献   

13.
Reconciling food, fiber and energy production with biodiversity conservation is among the greatest challenges of the century, especially in the face of climate change. Model-based scenarios linking climate, land use and biodiversity can be exceptionally useful tools for decision support in this context. We present a modeling framework that links climate projections, private land use decisions including farming, forest and urban uses and the abundances of common birds as an indicator of biodiversity. Our major innovation is to simultaneously integrate the direct impacts of climate change and land use on biodiversity as well as indirect impacts mediated by climate change effects on land use, all at very fine spatial resolution. In addition, our framework can be used to evaluate incentive-based conservation policies in terms of land use and biodiversity over several decades. The results for our case study in France indicate that the projected effects of climate change dominate the effects of land use on bird abundances. As a conservation policy, implementing a spatially uniform payment for pastures has a positive effect in relatively few locations and only on the least vulnerable bird species.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).  相似文献   

15.
The aim of this study was to generate a land productivity dynamics (LPD) map of a degraded catchment located in sub-humid terrestrial ecosystem via a land degradation assessment using three indicators, namely land use and land cover, land productivity, and soil organic carbon density. The study was carried out in two adjacent microcatchments located in Gediz River Basin and conducted between 2001 and 2015. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images were used to determine changing of land use and land cover and vegetation density. In addition, 319 soil samples were collected from surface and subsurface soil depths to detect soil organic carbon density of the study area in May 2015. According to the study results, in more than 23% of the catchments’ area of approx. 3896 ha, land productivity is observed to decline while about 24% shows early signs of decline level. Some of these areas used under agricultural cropping, overgrazed pasture, and artificial areas showed evidence of soil erosion problem. Only very small area of the catchment shows stable and increasing land productivity dynamics trend during the 14-year period.  相似文献   

16.
Global simulations with the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre climate model coupled to the CHAmeleon Surface Model (CHASM) are used to explore the sensitivity of simulated changes in evaporation, precipitation, air temperature and soil moisture resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Five simulations, using prescribed sea surface temperatures, are conducted which are identical except in the level of complexity used to represent the surface energy balance. The simulation of air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture at 1 2 CO2 and at 2 2 CO2 are generally sensitive at statistically significant levels to the complexity of the surface energy balance representation (i.e. the level of complexity used to represent these processes affects the simulated climate). However, changes in mean quantities, resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, are generally insensitive to the surface energy balance complexity. Conversely, changes in the spatial and temporal variance of evaporation and soil moisture are sensitive to the surface energy balance complexity. The addition of explicit canopy interception to the simplest model examined here enables that model to capture the change in the variance of evaporation simulated by the more complex models. In order to simulate changes in the variability of soil moisture, an explicit parameterization of bare soil evaporation is required. Overall, our results increase confidence that the simulation by climate models of the mean impact of increasing CO2 on climate are reliable. Changes in the variability resulting from increased CO2 on air temperature, precipitation or evaporation are also likely to be reliable since climate models typically use sufficiently complex land surface schemes. However, if the impact of increased CO2 on soil moisture is required, then a more complex surface energy balance representation may be needed in order to capture changes in variability. Overall, our results imply that the level of complexity used by most climate models to represent the surface energy balance is appropriate and does not contribute significant uncertainty in the simulation of changes resulting from increasing CO2. Our results only relate to surface energy balance complexity, and major uncertainties remain in how to model the surface hydrology and changes in the physiology, structural characteristics and distribution of vegetation. Future developments of land surface models should therefore focus on improving the representation of these processes.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, we present four model-based scenarios exploring the potential for resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use, and implications for resource depletion, climate change and biodiversity. The scenarios explored include technological improvements as well as structural changes in production systems and lifestyle changes. Many of such changes have long lead times, requiring up front and timely investments in infrastructure, innovative incentive structures and education. For simulating the scenarios we applied the IMAGE modelling framework, with a time horizon until 2050.Our findings confirm a large potential for more efficient resource use: our (no new policies) baseline scenario shows a global increase, between 2010 and 2050, by 80% of primary energy use, 4% of arable land and 40% of phosphorus fertilisers. These numbers are reduced to +25% (primary energy), −9% (arable land) and +9% (phosphorus) in the global resource efficiency scenario. Baseline developments and resource efficiency opportunities vary strikingly among regions, resources and sectors. Phosphorus use, for example, is expected to increase most on croplands in developing countries, whereas the largest potential for phosphorus use efficiency lies in the livestock sector and urban sewage treatment in industrialised countries. Consequently, while resource efficiency resonates well as a general notion in policy thinking, concrete policies need to be region-specific, resource-specific and sector-specific.Efficiency efforts on one resource tend to contribute to efficient use of other resources and to benefit the environment. There are also trade-offs, however, and the synergies analysed do not make problem-specific policies redundant: in 2050, the global resource efficiency scenario presents higher phosphorus use and higher use of fossil fuels than in 2010; greenhouse gas emission targets are met by half; and biodiversity loss slows down but is not halted. Moreover, part of the efficiency gains in land and phosphorus use is sacrificed when this scenario is combined with ambitious climate policy, due to the substantial resource requirements for the deployment of bio-energy—albeit much less than in a scenario without more efficient resource use.  相似文献   

18.
 A large number of land surface models (LSMs) have been designed for use in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) and GCM modellers therefore have a large number of options when selecting an LSM for their GCM. This study provides information to aid LSM design choices. A framework within which sensitivity to LSM design can be tested is presented and a series of experiments carried out to investigate how general aspects of surface energy balance parametrisation affect land-atmosphere evaporation. Firstly, it is shown that a combination of surface energy balance complexity and aerodynamic parametrisation can be used to explain the gross simulation differences obtained in the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS). Secondly, a simple surface energy balance parametrisation with a constant surface resistance is found to be as appropriate as more complex method for simulating annual, monthly and seasonally averaged diurnal cycles of evaporation. However, complex aspects of surface energy balance parametrisation (canopy interception, bare ground evaporation and canopy resistance) are shown to contain substantial geographic and daily functionality that is not present in the simpler parametrisation. Received: 12 June 1998/Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献   

19.
Summary Long-term flux measurement sites are often characterized by a heterogeneous terrain, which disagrees with the fundamental theoretical assumptions for eddy-covariance measurements. An evaluation procedure to assess the influence of terrain heterogeneity on the data quality has been developed by G?ckede et al. (2004), which combines existing quality assessment tools for flux measurements with analytic footprint modeling. In addition to micrometeorological input data, this approach requires information defining the land use structure and the roughness of the surrounding terrain. The aim of this study was to improve the footprint based site evaluation approach by using high-resolution land use maps derived by Landsat ETM+ and ASTER satellite data. The influence of the grid resolution of the maps on the results was examined, and four different roughness length classification schemes were tested. Due to numerical instabilities of the analytic footprint routine, as an additional footprint model a Lagrangian stochastic footprint routine (Rannik et al., 2003) was employed. Application of the approach on two German FLUXNET sites revealed only weak influence of the characteristics of the land use data when the land use structure was homogeneous. For a more heterogeneous site, use of the more detailed land use maps derived by remote sensing methods resulted in distinct differences indicating the potential of remote sensing for improving the flux measurement site evaluation.  相似文献   

20.
The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover （LULC） changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database （GLCCD） that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are： （1） The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. （2） The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. （3） The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. （4） The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.  相似文献   

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