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剖析和比较了地震危险性分析方法(综合概率法)和地震构造法的结果,认为,不能简单将构造法的结果作为概率法的上限,也不能确定在10-4的概率水平上,概率法结果就比构造法结果大,因此评定核电厂极限安全地震应同时使用构造法、概率法和其它方法,并取各种结果的最大值 相似文献
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基于Zoeppritz方程对介质密度偏导数所建立的偏导方程的精确解,构造了多角度反演地层介质密度的反演方程,在偏导数求解过程中考虑了介质密度对波速度的影响因素,并由此实现了利用反射系数梯度精确解计算地层密度的多角度联合反演.通过数值算例考察了计算方法,结果显示:反演方法对层状地层模型不论反射波是否存在相干现象均获得了较好的反演结果,反演迭代10次后计算结果的最大相对误差能够收敛到1%之内;随着反演角度的增加地层介质密度反演的精度逐步提高,反演具有自动校正能力,有快的计算速度.本方法克服了传统AVO(Amplitude Versus Offset)基于Zoeppritz方程近似所遇到的困难,不受反演角度大小及反射界面对波反射强弱的限制,为地层介质密度的多角度包括大角度反演提供了一种新的快速有效的计算方法. 相似文献
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An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is developed to identify a hydraulic conductivity distribution in a heterogeneous medium by assimilating solute concentration measurements of solute transport in the field with a steady‐state flow. A synthetic case with the mixed Neumann/Dirichlet boundary conditions is designed to investigate the capacity of the data assimilation methods to identify a conductivity distribution. The developed method is demonstrated in 2‐D transient solute transport with two different initial instant solute injection areas. The influences of the observation error and model error on the updated results are considered in this study. The study results indicate that the EnKF method will significantly improve the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity field by assimilating solute concentration measurements. The larger area of the initial distribution and the more observed data obtained, the better the calculation results. When the standard deviation of the observation error varies from 1% to 30% of the solute concentration measurements, the simulated results by the data assimilation method do not change much, which indicates that assimilation results are not very sensitive to the standard deviation of the observation error in this study. When the inflation factor is more than 1.0 to enlarge the model error by increasing the forecast error covariance matrix, the updated results of the hydraulic conductivity by the data assimilation method are not good at all. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为高效准确识别桥梁结构损伤,将深度学习与结构动力特性相结合,提出基于双层深度置信网络的桥梁结构损伤识别方法。首先取结构前3阶竖向振动频率和跨中节点前3阶竖向振动模态位移为参数,将其共同作为首层深度置信网络(DBN)的输入数据对结构的损伤位置进行识别;然后以1阶竖向振动的模态位移差作为参数,基于二层DBN对结构损伤程度进行预测;最后以郑许市域铁路桥梁为例进行验证。计算结果显示,当不考虑误差时,基于双层深度置信网络的结构损伤方法进行识别且结果精确;当噪声程度不超过10%时,定位识别结果准确率达100%;当噪声程度不超过15%时,定量识别结果最大绝对误差限不超过1.15%,识别结果准确;与传统的BP神经网络方法相比,本方法识别精度更高,抗噪性更强。 相似文献
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The damping‐solvent extraction method for the analysis of unbounded visco‐elastic media is evaluated numerically in the frequency domain in order to investigate the influence of the computational parameters—domain size, amount of artificial damping, and mesh density—on the accuracy of results. An analytical estimate of this influence is presented, and specific questions regarding the influence of the parameters on the results are answered using the analytical estimate and numerical results for two classical problems: the rigid strip and rigid disc footings on a visco‐elastic half‐space with constant hysteretic material damping. As the domain size is increased, the results become more accurate only at lower frequencies, but are essentially unaffected at higher frequencies. Choosing the domain size to ensure that the static stiffness is computed accurately leads to an unnecessarily large domain for analysis at higher frequencies. The results improve by increasing artificial damping but at a slower rate as the total (material plus artificial) damping ratio ζt gets closer to 0.866. However, the results do not deteriorate significantly for the larger amounts of artificial damping, suggesting that ζt≈0.6 is appropriate; a larger value is not likely to influence the accuracy of results. Presented results do not support the earlier suggestion that similar accuracy can be achieved by a large bounded domain with small damping or by a small domain with larger damping. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In spatio-temporal disease mapping models,identifiability constraints affect PQL and INLA results 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Disease mapping studies the distribution of relative risks or rates in space and time, and typically relies on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) including fixed effects and spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal random effects. These GLMMs are typically not identifiable and constraints are required to achieve sensible results. However, automatic specification of constraints can sometimes lead to misleading results. In particular, the penalized quasi-likelihood fitting technique automatically centers the random effects even when this is not necessary. In the Bayesian approach, the recently-introduced integrated nested Laplace approximations computing technique can also produce wrong results if constraints are not well-specified. In this paper the spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal interaction random effects are reparameterized using the spectral decompositions of their precision matrices to establish the appropriate identifiability constraints. Breast cancer mortality data from Spain is used to illustrate the ideas. 相似文献
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The application of classical geophysical methods in locating karst caves did not yield always unambiguous results. It was our task to verify a new method that has not yet been tested. In investigating caves in a karst formation, electromagnetic waves in the band 2–10 MHz were applied. The physical analysis of the problem is carried out, the measuring device used for the perradiation of the rocks between the boreholes is described, and the results of the measurements made in the karst area of East Slovakia (?SSR) are shown. The verification from mines is included. The results mentioned are demonstrated in a space model. The work performed in the mines verified unambiguously the interpretation of the indications measured. The results show the suitability of putting the electromagnetic method in question into the set of geophysical methods within the hydrogeological survey of karst areas. 相似文献
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本文综合GPS流动和连续观测结果,并利用最速下降法（SDM）反演方法,给出并分析了2014年鲁甸6.5级地震同震位移、断层面滑动位移分布特征.GPS同震位移结果表明：此次地震沿北西方向表现出左旋应变释放特征、沿北东向表现出拉张应变释放的同震特征,并且随着离开断裂带距离的增加,拉张变形衰减;受包谷垴—小河断裂控制的左旋剪切应变释放的位移在莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂附近较弱,说明该断裂可能没有完全切割昭通—鲁甸断裂,不属于该区域主干断裂;昭通—鲁甸断裂带有一定的右旋应变释放,而逆冲应变释放不明显,表明该断裂带处于受南东向挤压的强闭锁状态.SDM反演结果表明,鲁甸地震以左旋走滑为主并兼有拉张性质,地震矩震级为MW6.3左右.综上所述,并结合其他研究成果,我们认为莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带仍存在强震危险性. 相似文献
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Dana Procházková 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1973,111(1):2158-2162
Summary The results that were obtained by the study of space distribution of individual types of earthquake sequences in the Mediterranean are summarized. The present results apply only to large earthquakes, because with weak shocks it is not possible to present reliable results owing to the incompleteness of material. 相似文献
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The resolution of seismic data is critical to seismic data processing and the subsequent interpretation of fine structures. In conventional resolution improvement methods, the seismic data is assumed stationary and the noise level not changes with space, whereas the actual situation does not satisfy this assumption, so that results after resolution improvement processing is not up to the expected effect. To solve these problems, we propose a seismic resolution improvement method based on the secondary time–frequency spectrum. First, we propose the secondary time-frequency spectrum based on S transform (ST) and discuss the reflection coefficient sequence and time-dependent wavelet in the secondary time–frequency spectrum. Second, using the secondary time–frequency spectrum, we design a twodimensional filter to extract the amplitude spectrum of the time-dependent wavelet. Then, we discuss the improvement of the resolution operator in noisy environments and propose a novel approach for determining the broad frequency range of the resolution operator in the time–frequency–space domain. Finally, we apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data and compare the results of the traditional spectrum-modeling deconvolution and Q compensation method. The results suggest that the proposed method does not need to estimate the Q value and the resolution is not limited by the bandwidth of the source. Thus, the resolution of the seismic data is improved sufficiently based on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). 相似文献
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本文通过参加ESG2006组织的国际地脉动盲比测验,检验了利用地脉动方法探测近地表速度结构的精度和可信度.在对多个不同测试模型频散曲线的提取精度、速度结构平均速度相对偏差和场地放大效应估计等方面的比较中,本文方法在参加盲比测验的19个国际研究组中均处于前列.同时盲比测验结果表明,不论人工合成记录还是实际观测记录、速度还是加速度记录,地脉动空间自相关方法得到的场地瑞利波频散曲线,均能够为后续反演研究提供可靠的目标曲线;可以根据仪器实际情况自由选择观测加速度或速度.人工合成数据分析中,有两例频散曲线受到了高阶振型影响,在实际观测数据中影响不明显.结合盲比测验结果指出,空间自相关方法的最大可探测波长一般达不到通常认为的15.7倍的最大半径,大多情况小于10倍;而最小波长要小于2倍的最小半径,可以到1倍的最小半径. 相似文献
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钢管混凝土(单圆管)拱肋刚度对其动力特性的影响 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
钢管混凝土的截面刚度应用不同的规范计算的结果之间存在着差异。本文以一座实桥为研究对象,讨论了这种差异对钢管混凝土拱桥动力特性的影响。分析表明,不同规范引起的钢管混凝土拱肋刚度的计算值的不同对钢管混凝土拱桥动力特性计算结果的影响较小。对自振频率,抗弯刚度取值的变化有一定的影响,但抗压刚度的影响极小;对自振振型,抗弯与抗压刚度取值的变化均无影响。 相似文献
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针对当前钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固性能评估法未考虑不同建筑结构的抗灾差异,所求得的各项承载力参数不够客观,从而造成评估结果与实际检测结果差异大,评估精度低的问题,提出基于分灾模式的钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固性能评估方法。计算梁底初始拉应变、梁正截面极限抗弯承载力和钢筋混凝土梁正截面荷载挠度,然后设计分灾模式的钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固,通过分析载荷与压应变、载荷与挠度以及剪力与位移变化,得到钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固后各项承载力参数,输入各项梁承载力参数到ANSYS通用程序,利用该程序结合钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固性能进行评估。通过进行仿真实验,结果表明加入分灾元件的钢筋混凝土梁抗弯加固性能有明显提高。将本文方法评估结果与实验实际评估结果对比可知,提出的评估方法与实际检测结果基本一致,评估精度准确性较高。 相似文献
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This study investigates divering overland flow utilizing kinematic wave theory, which does not appear to have been dealt with previously. Explicit analytical solutions are derived in dimensionless form for space-time invariant rainfall. Analytical solutions do not seem to be tractable for time-varying rainfall. Depending upon the duration of rainfall, equilibrium and partial equilibrium cases are distinguished explicitly. The effect of divergence parameter on the hydrograph shape is shown. The adequacy of kinematic approximation for characterization of diverging overland flow is tested against laboratory watershed results. The diverging overland flow model is found to yield results which compare well with observations and with those of a plane model. 相似文献
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伴随状态法初至波走时层析是基于最优化理论的一种层析成像方法,该方法不必进行射线追踪,用两次正演的计算量便可以获得梯度,具有计算效率高、内存占用小等优点,但是其一阶方向在初始模型或观测孔径不理想的情况下往往无法获得正确的反演结果,而二阶方向的实现又比较困难且费时.在伴随状态法的基础上,将走时差替换为定值,再次进行反演,便可以得到类似于射线密度的矩阵,用该矩阵的逆可以方便地进行预条件.基于该方法,本文提出了一种简单易行的预条件伴随状态法初至波走时层析的实现方法.理论模型和实际资料处理结果都表明,该方法既保留了伴随状态法初至波走时层析的优点,又可以克服一阶方向的局限,获得良好的反演效果. 相似文献
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While the tortuosity coefficient is commonly estimated using an expression based on total porosity, this relationship is demonstrated to not be applicable (and thus is often misapplied) over a broad range of soil textures. The fundamental basis for a correlation between the apparent diffusion tortuosity coefficient and hydraulic conductivity is demonstrated, although such a relationship is not typically considered. An empirical regression for estimating the tortuosity coefficient based on hydraulic conductivity for saturated, unconsolidated soil is derived based on results from 14 previously reported diffusion experiments performed with a broad range of soil textures. Analyses of these experimental results confirm that total porosity is a poor predictor for the tortuosity coefficient over a large range of soil textures. The apparent diffusion tortuosity coefficient is more reliably estimated based on hydraulic conductivity. 相似文献
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弹性各向异性介质岩石体波相速度计算 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
蔡晓刚 《地震地磁观测与研究》2011,32(6):80-89
综述弹性波相速度计算的若干严格数值方法和近似解析方法,对数值算例及对不同方法作了比较.结果显示,不同数值方法得到结果一致,其适用于计算任意复杂各向异性介质岩石的相速度,但不便从物理意义的角度去分析物理参数对速度的影响;而近似解析解虽然精确程度各有不同,但是便于从物理意义的角度去进行速度分析,并在此基础上解析求取群速度这... 相似文献
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Correct estimation of sediment volume carried by a river is very important for many water resources projects. Conventional sediment rating curves, however, are not able to provide sufficiently accurate results. In this paper, a fuzzy logic approach is proposed to estimate suspended sediment concentration from streamflow. This study provides forecasting benchmarks for sediment concentration prediction in the form of a numerical and graphical comparison between fuzzy and rating‐curve models. Benchmarking was based on a 5‐year period of continuous streamflow and sediment concentration data of Quebrada Blanca Station operated by the United States Geological Survey. The benchmark results showed that the fuzzy model was able to produce much better results than rating‐curve models. The fuzzy model proposed in the study is site specific and does not simulate the hysteresis effects. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献