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辽宁地区ML≥5．0地震前中等地震集中活动的震兆研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
定义了描述中等地震活动增强的3个参量E、T和R,通过对辽宁地区13次ML≥5．0地震的统计分析,结果显示,辽宁地区Mi≥5．0地震前确实存在中等地震活动增强的现象,且主震77％发生在中等地震增强活动中的最后一次中等地震后3个月内,震中距离第一次或最后一次中等地震震中约5～70km,概率80％。震级与中等地震增强活动参数E,T,R有关。 相似文献
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辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前4级地震集中活动的震兆研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
本文通过对辽宁地区4次M≥5.0地震和3次典型的ML≥5.0地震前小震活动的统计分析,结果显示,辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前均存在4级地震集中活动的现象,且预期的5级以上地震83%发生在最近1次4级地震后的半年内,震中大部分位于N41°以南,发生在营-海-岫地区的概率超过80%,震级可通过E、T、R三个参量的拟合计算来预测。 相似文献
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本文改进了地震活动性模拟方法,使模型可以使用GPS反演得到的断层滑动速率的结果作为应力加载,进行区域的地震活动性模拟.选取太原地区作为研究区域,模拟并分析太原地区地震活动性.计算太原地区长达20000年的理论地震目录,通过对理论地震目录进行分析发现模拟结果的震级频度关系与实际观测资料具有相似性.太原地区的震级大于6级的模拟地震在时间上表现出很强的随机性,与年平均发生率为0.0129a~(-1)的Poisson过程对比,当采用卡方检验进行检验时,置信水平达到99.0%;然而,单一断层的强震的时间分布与相应年平均发生率的Poisson分布并不完全相近,部分断层拟合置信水平为90%左右,部分断层置信水平接近为0.这一结果表明,用Poisson过程估计太原地区长期地震发生率是比较合理的,估计单一断层上的地震危险性不是十分合理.地震危险性模拟结果显示,太原盆地地区7级以上地震的复现周期为4000年. 相似文献
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在研究各类地震序列震级一频度客观分布的基础上,我们对45个地震序列的特征震级M0的普遍特征及差别作了进一步研究。结果,为地震预报探讨了一种可能的方法一用特怔震级M0≥2．0（或平均震级M≥2．1）作为地震预报的一个前兆性指标。同时还发现,当序列中主要事件超过7级以后,M0和M均限定在很小的震级域内变化。 相似文献
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Sun Wenfu Gu Haoding 《东北地震研究》1995,(3)
根据数理统计理论和有关文献，利用辽宁地区（３８．７°－４３°Ｎ，１１９°－１２５°Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震资料，建立了逐年最高震级时间序列的门限自回归模型和修改的震级一频度关系。同时，对辽宁地区地震活动的时空分布特征也作了详细的研究。最后，对辽宁地区未来（到２０００年）地震活动趋势和强度作了预测。 相似文献
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ShahidA．Khan M．AliShah M．Qaisar 《地震学报》2003,25(4):361-373
通过确定性和概率性方法，对发展迅速的巴基斯坦沿海地区进行了地震危险性评估．根据该地区的地震构造和地质条件，确定了5个地震区域的11个断层作为该地区的潜在震源，计算了每个潜在震源的最大可能震级．根据与之相关震源的最大可信震级，计算了7个沿海城市的峰值加速度（PGA）．瓜达尔（Gwadar）和奥尔马腊（Ormara）的峰值加速度分别为0.21和0.25 g，处于地震危险性水平较高的地区；杜尔伯德（Turbat）和卡拉奇（Karachi）位于地震危险性水平较低的地区，峰值加速度小于0.1 g．同时，分别绘制了50年和100年超越概率为10％的PGA区划图，区划图的分区间隔为0.05 g． 相似文献
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福岛核事故揭示了外部自然灾害引发严重核事故的可能性,为核工程界敲响了警钟。因此,对我国运行和在建核电厂址逐步开展了抗震裕度评价(SMA)或地震概率安全评价(SPSA)工作。本文针对地震危险性分析在核工程应用中存在的问题,从设计基准地震动的确定、核电厂地震概率安全评价、超设计基准地震动安全分析3个方面进行了研究。设计基准地震动确定方面,目前存在的主要问题是某些核设施厂址确定论方法和概率论方法评价结果的显著差异。本文以我国的一些核电厂址为例,分析了确定论和概率论方法评价结果的控制性因素,分析结果表明,反应谱的周期较小时,主要受距厂址较近的发震构造(地震构造区)、潜在震源区控制;随着反应谱周期的增大,距厂址较远的区域性发震构造、高震级潜在震源区的影响逐步增大。通过分解变量MRs对地震动年平均超越概率(HT4)的相对贡献,给出了变量的边际分布和联合分布,说明了变量的分布特征,指出了评价结果差异的主要影响因素为单位面积上高震级档地震年平均发生率和衰减关系的截断水平。根据核设施结构基于性能抗震设计方法的应用要求,以地震引起堆融的年平均概率为目标,推导了反应谱调整系数公式,根据推导结果和中美两国厂址地震危险性曲线变化趋势的对比分析,建立了适用于我国的核设施结构抗震设计反应谱调整系数的近似公式。核电厂地震概率安全评价中的主要问题是概率地震危险性分析中的不确定性处理和表达。论文分析了地震动预测模型截断水平对概率地震危险性分析结果的影响,讨论了厂址地震危险性分析结果的分布形式;验证了随机振动理论方法的适用性,采用随机振动理论方法研究了土层地震反应分析中土层剖面模型参数的不确定性对评价结果的影响;介绍了美国中东部地区概率地震危险性分析认知不确定性处理采用的逻辑树方法,实现了逻辑树模型中多方案的权重确定方法,讨论了该方法的适用范围。关于认知不确定性处理,针对逻辑树模型在实际工程应用中存在的逻辑问题。基于稳定大陆地区最大震级和高震级档地震年平均发生率的研究进展,随机生成完整的地震目录,从中进行小样本抽样,分析了6值和高震级档地震年平均发生率的分布范围,研究了逻辑树模型中相互关联节点分支间的组合问题。根据稳定大陆地区最大震级先验分布的研究成果,利用破坏性地震目录计算似然函数,采用Bayesian方法,初步估计了对我国内陆核电厂址有重要影响的长江中游地震带最大震级的分布。关于抗震裕度评价中的抗震裕度地震确定问题,分析了我国核电厂址的地震危险性背景和不同堆型的抗震设计特点,以某核电厂址为例,采用多种方法确定了抗震裕度地震。根据分析计算结果,按照抗震裕度评价的目的、厂址地震危险性特征、堆型的抗震设计特点,给出了适用的方法和抗震裕度地震谱型。 相似文献
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Mixed model for interoccurrence times of earthquakes based on the expectation-maximization algorithm 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper, the goodness-of-fit test based on a convex combination of Akaike and Bayesian information criteria is used
to explain the features of interoccurrence times of earthquakes. By analyzing the seismic catalog of Iran for different tectonic
settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes can be described
by the generalized normal distribution. This indicates that the sequence of successive earthquakes is not a Poisson process.
It is found that by decreasing the threshold magnitude, the interoccurrence time distribution changes from the generalized
normal distribution to the gamma distribution in some seismotectonic regions. As a new insight, the probability distribution
of time intervals between earthquakes is described as a mixture distribution via the expectation-maximization algorithm. 相似文献
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Rune Olsson 《Journal of Geodynamics》1993,17(4)
The Gutenberg-Richter relation, which means that the number of earthquakes within a given magnitude interval is an exponential function of the magnitude, is considered almost as a law in seismology. In many cases the relation is not very evident but only for relatively narrow magnitude intervals. It is more like a rule that a dual behaviour exists. Further the frequency-magnitude diagrams are often so scattered that it is difficult to get any clear pattern and by using cumulated frequencies we have a great smoothing of the data, which increases the linearity of the logarithmic number-magnitude behaviour. In the present paper we have as an example studied three selected subregions of the Fennoscandian area, principally comprising the following regions: southwestern Norway, northern Norway, northeastern Sweden and northern Finland. We have found that the log-M relationship may be interpreted as a normal distribution of magnitudes as well as the generally assumed exponential one. 相似文献
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以河北测震台网记录的河北及周边地区地震事件为数据源,计算单台测定震级与台网平均震级的平均偏差、标准偏差,采用统计、对比、归纳分析等方法,分析偏差的分布情况,依据震中距分段计算平均偏差,得到震级偏差的分布规律及相应校正值;最后通过对量规函数、台基岩性等进行校正,对比拟合出符合河北台站特点的新量规函数,使误差精度在规定范围之内。 相似文献
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中国大陆历史地震烈度统计 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为研究中国地震烈度评定的时空分布特征,对中国大陆1966年以来464个地震的烈度数据进行统计,分析长期以来不同震级的震中烈度及灾区面积评定随时间的变化趋势,并对比中国东部和西部地区间的差异。结果表明：对于震级相同的地震,震中烈度和灾区范围的评定均存在波动,且在不同震级区间和不同时间阶段,波动的显著程度也有所不同。此外,中国东部和西部地区地震烈度评定虽然存在差异,但随着震级增大,差异逐渐减小。 相似文献
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The application of nonparametric statistical methods to the estimation of some characteristics of the seismicity regime is considered. Emphasis is placed on the behavior of the distribution tail (i.e., the distribution of the strongest events). The methods described do not use any assumptions concerning the distribution function. Confidence intervals are derived for the magnitude distribution function and for the Poisson intensity of the flow of seismic events. The probability that a previously recorded maximum magnitude will be exceeded during some future time interval T and the confidence interval of this probability are estimated. The distribution of the time to the nearest event exceeding the last maximum (to the nearest record) is derived. The nonparametric approach is most effective if the type of empirical data parameterization is unknown or there are grounds for doubting its adequacy. 相似文献
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收集了湖北省数字测震台网2007—2015年记录到的数字地震波形,利用震相清晰的台站测定了地方震震级,并计算了其与中国地震台网中心公布震级的偏差.在此基础上,以每个数字测震台站为中心,按照每30°为一个区间,将每个台站记录到的地震事件分为12个区间,对每个区间的平均震级偏差和标准离差予以统计分析.结果显示,除去24个无地震事件区间,300个区间的平均震级偏差中,81.7%的偏差小于0.3;再除去14个样本数为1的区间,其余286个区间的方位标准离差中,98.3%的离差小于0.5.经校正后各区间的平均震级偏差和方位标准离差均有所下降,表明地震传播方位对地方震震级测定的影响有所降低.因此,针对数字测震台站对不同方位地震所测定的震级偏差存在的差异进行相应校正是必要且有意义的. 相似文献
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S. A. Lawal W. E. Watt D. G. Watts 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(4):303-321
A model is developed for annual low flow hydrographs. Its two primary components reflect the fact that hydrologic processes
during streamflow rise (function of water input) and recession (function of basin storage) are different. Durations of periods
of rise (wet intervals) and recession (dry intervals) are modelled by discrete probability distributions — negative binomial
for dry intervals and negative binomial or modified logarithmic series for wet intervals depending on goodness of fit. During
wet intervals, the total inflow is modelled by the lognormal distribution and daily amounts are allocated according to a pattern-averaged
model. During dry intervals, the flow recedes according to a deterministic-stochastic recession model.
The model was applied to three Canadian basins with drainage area ranging from 2210 to 22000 km2 to generate 50 realizations of low flow hydrographs. The resulting two standard-error confidence band for the simulated probability
distribution of annual minimum 7-day flows enclosed the probability distribution estimated from the observed record. A sensitivity
analysis for the three basins revealed that in addition to the recession submodel, the most important submodel is that describing
seasonality. The state of the basin at the beginning of the low flow period is of marginal importance and the daily distribution
of input is unimportant. 相似文献
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A model is developed for annual low flow hydrographs. Its two primary components reflect the fact that hydrologic processes
during streamflow rise (function of water input) and recession (function of basin storage) are different. Durations of periods
of rise (wet intervals) and recession (dry intervals) are modelled by discrete probability distributions — negative binomial
for dry intervals and negative binomial or modified logarithmic series for wet intervals depending on goodness of fit. During
wet intervals, the total inflow is modelled by the lognormal distribution and daily amounts are allocated according to a pattern-averaged
model. During dry intervals, the flow recedes according to a deterministic-stochastic recession model.
The model was applied to three Canadian basins with drainage area ranging from 2210 to 22000 km2 to generate 50 realizations of low flow hydrographs. The resulting two standard-error confidence band for the simulated probability
distribution of annual minimum 7-day flows enclosed the probability distribution estimated from the observed record. A sensitivity
analysis for the three basins revealed that in addition to the recession submodel, the most important submodel is that describing
seasonality. The state of the basin at the beginning of the low flow period is of marginal importance and the daily distribution
of input is unimportant. 相似文献
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Noureddine Beghoul Jean-Luc Chatelain Mohamed-Salah Boughacha Hadj Benhallou Rida Dadou Amira Mezioud-Saïch 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(3):277-321
Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations. 相似文献
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Recent seismological studies of the Cameroon Volcanic Line show that Mt. Cameroon is the most active centre, so a permanent seismic network of six seismographs was set up in its region between 1984 and 1986. The network was reinforced with temporary stations up till 1987, and the local seismicity was studied. Here we emphasise a statistical analysis of seismic events recorded by the permanent seismic stations. Four swarms lasting 9 to 14 months are identified at intervals of 2–3 years. Most earthquakes are felt (intensity and magnitude, respectively, less than VI MM and 5) during the first three swarms and a few during repose periods. The main focal regions are the northwest and southeast flanks, the Bimbia and Bioko regions in the South of the volcano. Hypocentres are distributed from the surface to 60 km depth indicating crustal and subcrustal activities. The subcrustal events are observed only in the southeast flank, they are the most regular earthquakes with a monthly frequency of 9 to 15 events. They are characteristic earthquakes with magnitude 2.8 ± 0.1. Between 1984 and 1992, their yearly mean time interval between successive events range from 50 to 86 hours. For that period their occurrence can be modelled as a stationary renewal process with a 3-day period. But the analysis of variance shows possible significant differences among yearly means. A Weibull's distribution confirms that the time intervals between successive deep events are not independent, and in 1993 a swarm of deep earthquakes is recorded, hence a non-loglinear magnitude/frequency relation. The deep seismicity is thought to be associated with a zone of weakness (perhaps a magmatic conduit) and may have some close relationship with the magmatic activity. 相似文献