共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Abstract Previous studies by Nakamura (1976) and Kirkwood and Derome (1977) have shown that the use of a relatively low vertical resolution in a numerical model of the atmosphere can lead to a poor representation of the forced stationary planetary waves. In the present study the consequences of this result on short‐term numerical forecasts are investigated. This is done by performing forecast experiments using a low resolution linear β‐plane model that is initialized with data extracted from the steady forced solution of the high resolution (reference) version of the model. The deviation of the low resolution forecast from the initial state, which can be interpreted as the forecast error due to insufficient vertical resolution, is examined as a function of time. It is shown that the short‐range forecast error is dominated by a westward propagating external mode and that in time some of the eastward moving internal modes gain in importance. 相似文献
2.
Observed oscillatory current patterns in the southern basin of Lake Michigan, with a distinctive peak in the energy spectrum at a period of about 90 h, are simulated using a linear potential vorticity conservation model. Solutions of the forced vorticity equation in a paraboloidal basin show rotational, oscillatory motions tuned to the low-frequency topographic modes that are very similar to the observed flow patterns. Topography-controlled vorticity waves are excited most effectively by wind episodes with frequency nearly in resonance with the topographic modes. Bottom resistance has no significant effect on the frequency equation; it simply decays the waves slowly in the open lake and more quickly near the coast. Flow patterns of both the gravest free vorticity wave and the corresponding forced wave consist of two opposite circulation cells separated by a null streamline through the center of the basin and rotating cyclonically near the free wave and atmospheric forcing frequencies, respectively. Interactions between the forced and free waves result in an apparent rotational pattern with a frequency the median of the two. A combination of elliptic—paraboloidal basin and shorter period forced modes can approximate the observed Lake Michigan response. Doppler shift, due to the persistence of cyclonic vorticity in the flow field, is also determined to be a factor in shifting the elliptical basin mode to a higher frequency. 相似文献
3.
4.
通过扰动物理量分解方法和增量预报方法,提出低频扰动增量的定义,分析冬季大气低频扰动信号与华南低温事件的可能联系,构建基于低频扰动增量的华南冬季低温延伸期预报模型,为低温延伸期预报提供科学参考依据。分析表明:(1)东半球500 hPa高度场低频扰动变化显著区域主要位于中高纬度45°×80°N地区,尤其在乌拉尔山脉附近及其以西的东欧地区和贝加尔湖以北的中西伯利亚地区;(2)500 hPa中高纬高度场和风场低频扰动增量的前两个EOF模态反映了周期为20 d左右低频振荡的传播型模态,EOF1反映的是导致中高纬度两槽一脊型的环流形势得以维持的低频扰动特征,EOF2反映的是中高纬度高空槽东移后出现的低频扰动特征,研究揭示了华南最低气温低频扰动增量与该低频传播模态的关系十分密切;(3)基于低频扰动增量的延伸期预报准确率明显优于直接应用原始场的延伸期预报,重点抓住大尺度环流的低频扰动增量及由其引起的预报量的扰动增量,可以提高延伸期预报的准确率。 相似文献
5.
Hyun-Joo Choi Ji-Young Han Myung-Seo Koo Hye-Yeong Chun Young-Ha Kim Song-You Hong 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(1):385-402
This study implements the parameterizations of convective and frontal gravity wave drag (GWD) with wide phase speed spectra into a global forecast model with a model top near 0.3 hPa. The new convective GWD scheme replaces the existing one that considers only a stationary convective GW, and the frontal GWD scheme is newly introduced. When the new GWD schemes are used, the Rayleigh friction, applied above 2 hPa to mimic the effects of missing GWD, is removed. The convective (frontal) GWs are generated mainly in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and winter extratropical storm track regions (extratropics where strong baroclinicity exists). The convective and frontal GWD derived from the new schemes are significant near the model top, with maxima of ~2-4 and ~26-58 m s?1 day?1, respectively. The differences in convective GWD between the stationary and non-stationary schemes appear mainly in the tropics and summer hemisphere, where stationary GWs cannot propagate upward. The new schemes improve the seasonal representation of stratospheric wind, through changes in both the GWD and the resolved wave forcing, which is modulated by the changed large-scale wind due to the GWD. The downward influence, in response to the changed GWD, is also positive in the tropospheric fields, such as subtropical jet and planetary-scale disturbances. For the medium-range forecasts, improved skill scores on wind speed are achieved globally with the new schemes. The improvements mostly appear only in the stratosphere during the early forecast period (~3 days) but expand to the troposphere as forecast time increases. 相似文献
6.
利用DEMETER多模式集合研究计划中Météo France模式的预报资料集,在分析其对冬季北半球中高纬度地区 (20°~90°N)500 hPa高度场预报效果的基础上,针对模式预测较差的模态分别运用最优子集回归修正方案和回归-相似相结合的修正方案对其进行订正。结果表明:数值模式对观测模态的预测能力并非随模态数的增加而递减,方差贡献较小的模态的预报效果可能好于方差贡献较大的模态;基于最优子集的回归订正方法未能改进原模式预报技巧;在最优子集回归基础上再经相似订正的方法 (DAP-OSR) 能够改进预测效果,独立试报的距平相关系数平均每年提高0.1。 相似文献
7.
本文利用一个全球谱模式（T63L9）和1994年4个时段个例的全球客观分析资料探讨了中期数值天气预报的误差订正方法。个例分析的结果表明,采用定常误差订正和时空平滑误差订正方法,误差订正效果显著,可考虑在业务系统中采用。 相似文献
8.
Diagnostic Study of Global Energy Cycle of the GRAPES Global Model in the Mixed Space-Time Domain 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Some important diagnostic characteristics for a model’s physical background are reflected in the model’s energy transport, conversion, and cycle. Diagnosing the atmospheric energy cycle is a suitable way towards understanding and improving numerical models. In this study, formulations of the “Mixed Space-Time Domain”energy cycle are calculated and the roles of stationary and transient waves within the atmospheric energy cycle of the Global-Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES） model are diagnosed and compared with the NCEP analysis data for July 2011. Contributions of the zonal-mean components of the energy cycle are investigated to explain the performance of numerical models. The results show that the GRAPES model has the capability to reproduce the main features of the global energy cycle as compared with the NCEP analysis. Zonal available potential energy （AZ） is converted into stationary eddy available potential energy （ASE） and transient eddy available potential energy （ATE）, and ASE and ATE have similar values. The nonlinear conversion between the two eddy energy terms is directed from the stationary to the transient. AZ becomes larger with increased forecast lead time, reflecting an enhancement of the meridional temperature gradient, which strengthens the zonal baroclinic processes and makes the conversion from AZ to eddy potential energy larger, especially for CAT （conversion from AZ to ATE）. The zonal kinetic energy （KZ） has a similar value to the sum of the stationary and transient eddy kinetic energy. Barotropic conversions are directed from eddy to zonal kinetic energy. The zonal conversion from AZ to KZ in GRAPES is around 1.5 times larger than in the NCEP analysis. The contributions of zonal energy cycle components show that transient eddy kinetic energy （KTE） is associated with the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet and the conversion from KZ to KTE reduces in the upper tropopause near 30？S. The nonlinear barotropic conversion between stationary 相似文献
9.
Summary This is the third in a series of papers to investigate the applicability of the ensemble forecasting (EF) technique in the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) motion. In the previous two papers, either the environment or the vortex was perturbed and the other unperturbed component was then merged onto the perturbed component at the initial time. In the present study, the separately-perturbed environment and vortex fields are combined at this time. The objective is to determine the extent to, and the synoptic pattern under which, such a combination can improve the TC motion forecast compared with perturbing only one component.The study makes use of the same barotropic model as the previous studies and the same dataset – 66 cases from the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM90. Perturbations of the environment and those of the vortex are first generated separately using the breeding of growing modes (BGM) method, and then combined at the initial forecast time. The performance of this combined scheme, labeled as BGMC, is then compared with that of the scheme with only the environment or the vortex perturbations (termed BGME and BGMV, respectively).The BGMC distribution of ensemble forecast tracks are found to be basically similar to those in BGME but the spread is reduced. Some poor forecast members in BGME also become close to the best track in BGMC. The relative skill scores of the BGMC forecasts relative to the best track are almost all positive but those under the perfect model assumption are negative because the control forecast is better. While both BGMC and BGME schemes can improve TC forecast track under transition synoptic conditions, BGMC also achieve a higher success rate under complicated vortex and environment interactions. In general, the BGMC scheme is superior to the BGMV scheme. 相似文献
10.
本文基于GRAPES全球模式的短期预报误差样本,利用赤道波动正规模态研究了热带风、压场平衡特征,并根据这些特征分析了线性平衡方程(LBE)在该区域应用时存在的问题。结果表明:(1)赤道波动能成功解释热带短期预报误差样本的大部分分量,对流层中层为60%~80%,对流层顶和平流层低层为80%以上。(2)在可解释的误差方差中,赤道罗斯贝波(ER)占比仅为30%~55%,其他赤道波动的作用不可忽视。(3)在ER模态基础上引入其他赤道波动会大幅削弱原有风、压场平衡约束,重力惯性波与Kelvin波的作用最为显著。此时,对流层中层位势高度h与u风、v风间的约束接近于零,而平流层低层h-u的平衡特征由Kelvin波主导。(4)LBE主要表达了ER模态下的风、压场平衡特征,与实际情形相比高估了热带风、压场的耦合程度,进一步的改进中需削弱这一虚假平衡,使得热带风、压场分析变得更加独立。 相似文献
11.
A surface wind (seabreeze), thermally generated by differential sea surface temperature, is introduced to Gill-Clarke’s model (1974) through wind stress for investigating the effects of Seabreeze on coastal upwelling. A coupled air-sea system is treated as an eigenvalue problem. The solutions show that the thermally forced local winds break down the coastal Kelvin wave into three parts: small-scale (L<100 km) growing and stationary modes, mesoscale (100 km200 km) coastal Kelvin modes. The consistency of the length scale between the most growing mode predicted by this model and the observed cold/warm alternation pattern of surface water near the Peruvian Coast (around 15oS) implies that Seabreeze may play some role in coastal upwelling. 相似文献
12.
利用T63L9全球谱模式和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 对BGM方法中增长模的繁殖长度对集合预报效果的影响进行研究。结果表明:与控制预报相比, 不同繁殖长度的集合预报都能使预报效果得到一定程度的改进, 特别是第4天预报以后, 改进程度随预报时效而稳步提高。三组不同繁殖长度的集合预报对控制预报的改进存在差别, 分析结果表明:繁殖长度为2 d的集合预报明显效果最差, 而繁殖3 d和4 d的集合预报差别并不明显。对集合Talagrand分布以及离散度的初步分析表明, 繁殖长度取为3 d似乎最为合理。 相似文献
13.
初始扰动对一次华南暴雨预报的影响的研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文选取了2006年华南前汛期的一次暴雨过程, 采用AREMv2.3中尺度数值模式进行数值模拟, 分别在模式初始场的物理量场 (温度场、 风场、 湿度场) 上加扰动, 分析不同物理量场上的扰动对降水预报的影响, 以及物理量预报误差和扰动能量的增长情况。同时, 通过本个例讨论误差增长与湿对流的关系, 扰动振幅对误差增长的影响和华南区域的中尺度降水的可预报性问题。数值试验结果表明: 初始时刻不同物理量场加实际振幅的正态分布的随机扰动时, 对降水的影响是不同的。对于24小时降水预报, 温度场对降水的影响最大。误差的增长与湿对流不稳定有着密切的关系。小尺度小振幅误差增长很快, 而且是非线性增长。这意味着短期的较小尺度降水的可预报性很小。与大振幅扰动相比, 小振幅扰动造成的误差较小。但是小振幅扰动的迅速发展, 很快就会对降水预报造成较大的影响。因此, 只能有限地提高预报质量, 而且由于扰动非线性增长很快, 在预报时间的提前上, 不会有太大的改善。 相似文献
14.
15.
降水量是重要的预报要素之一,长期的降水预测更是能提前预测旱涝分布情况,为国民经济规划提供依据。但目前为止,长期的降水预测仍缺少客观的预报方法。为此,尝试利用非线性预测模型来预测旬降水量,并将该模型应用于福建平潭,分别用与原始数据的差值、与原始数据的相关系数、均方根误差,以及符号显著性检验方法,讨论了包含外强迫因子的平稳性模型与不包含外强迫因子的非线性模型的预测能力,结果表明:包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数为0.73,不包含外强迫因子的模型第一步预测结果与原始观测数据的相关系数则为0.47。无论是从与原始数据的差值及相关系数,还是均方根误差等方面,外强迫模型都是优于平稳性模型,并且通过符号检验方法可看出两种模型存在差异性,这也说明加入外强迫因子可以有效地提高预测技巧,外强迫因子与状态变量在预测中扮演同等重要的角色。 相似文献
16.
17.
Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by "perfect" boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences: heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies. 相似文献
18.
19.
采用云变量自由变化的方案，在国家气象中心全球业务模式T213L31的初始场中增加有关云变量的信息，通过2005年6—8月和2015年12月—2006年2月各3个月的连续滚动对比试验的统计分析和个例预报分析，研究探讨了全球模式初值中增加云变量对模式预报性能的影响。初步研究结果表明:采用自由变化的方案在初值场中增加云的信息，使模式能够较为合理地描述出模式预报初期与云相关变量分布和变化特征，降低了spin-up现象对模式前期降水预报能力的影响，同时对500 hPa形势场预报也有一定程度提高。 相似文献
20.
H. Volkert 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(2-4):73-85
Summary. Background and key results of the EU-funded project HERA are presented. The identification of the growing possibilities to
use forecast precipitation fields as input for hydrological models is followed by a broad assessment of the state of the art
regarding the determination of the atmospheric part of the hydrological cycle, with the geographical focus on the mountainous
region of the Alps in the heart of Europe. This includes the construction of (north)Alpine radar composites for nine episodes;
a first systematic cross-validation on a daily basis of four operational forecasting models with a trans-national gridded
observat ional dataset; several detailed case studies involving research versions of operational forecast models and the latest
advances in model resolution and microphysical parameterizations; new algorithms for Doppler radar retrievals over complex
terrain; and synthetic modelling studies with governing parameters derived from the selected cases to investigate some basic
processes in isolation. Finally, implications for proto-type applicatio ns of forecast areal precipitation fields in the hydrological
modelling of mountainous catchments are given.
Received April 14, 1999/Revised August 3, 1999 相似文献