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1.
According to climate features and river runoff conditions, Xinjiang could be divided into three research areas: The Altay-Tacheng region, the Tianshan Mountain region and the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. Utilizing daily observations from 12 sounding stations and the annual runoff dataset from 34 hydrographical stations in Xinjiang for the period 1960–2002, the variance of the summertime 0℃ level height and the changing trends of river runoff are analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, through trend contrast of curves processed by a 5-point smoothing procedure and linear correlation. The variance of the summertime 0℃ level height in Xinjiang correlates well with that of the annual river runoff, especially since the early 1990s, but it differs from region to region, with both the average height of the 0℃ level and runoff quantity significantly increasing over time in the Altay- Tacheng and Tianshan Mountain regions but decreasing on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The correlation holds for the whole of Xinjiang as well as the three individual regions, with a 0.01 significance level. This indicates that in recent years, climate change in Xinjiang has affected not only the surface layer but also the upper levels of the atmosphere, and this raising and lowering of the summertime 0℃ level has a direct impact on the warming and wetting process in Xinjiang and the amount of river runoff. Warming due to climate change increases the height of the 0℃ level, but also speeds up, ice-snow melting in mountain regions, which in turn increases river runoff, leading to a season of plentiful water instead of the more normal low flow period.  相似文献   

2.
All rivers in the Hexi inland region of Gansu Province, China, originate from the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains. They are located in the southern portion of the region and respectively belong to the three large river systems from east to west, the Shiyang, Heihe and Shule river basins. These rivers are supplied by precipitation, snowmelt and ice-melt runoff from the Qilian Mountain area. Therefore, changes of precipitation and temperature in the upstream watersheds of these rivers have an important effect on changes of mountainous runoff and reasonable utilization of water resources in this region. For this reason, the Qilian Mountain area, upstream watersheds and runoff forming areas of these rivers are chosen as the study area. The change characteristics and variation trend of temperature and precipitation in this area under the backdrop of global warming are analyzed based on observational data of relational weather and hydrologic stations in the area. Results show that temperatures in the upriver mountain areas of these three large river basins have been increasing, although the increasing degree is differentially affected by global warming. The rising extent of annual and seasonal temperatures in the upstream mountain area of the Shule river basin located in the western Qilian Mountains, were all largest over the past 50 years. Precipitation in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins located respectively in the western, middle and eastern Qilian Mountains have been presenting an increasing trend to varying degrees as a whole for more than 50 years. This means that climate in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins are becoming increasingly warmer and moister over the past 50 years, which will be very good for the ecological environment and agricultural production in the region.  相似文献   

3.
西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文)   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.  相似文献   

4.
Glaciers and snow are major constituents of solid water bodies in mountains; they can regulate the stability of local water sources. However, they are strongly affected by climate change. This study focused on the Tianshan Mountains, using glacier and snow datasets to analyse variations in glaciers, snow, water storage, and runoff. Three typical river basins(Aksu, Kaidou, and Urumqi Rivers) were selected to interpret the impacts of glacier and snow changes on regional water resources in the Tianshan Mountains. The results exhibited a nonlinear functional relationship between glacial retreat rate and area, demonstrating that small glacial retreat is more sensitive under climate change. Further, the glacial retreat rate at the low-middle elevation zone was seen to be faster than that at the high elevation zone. The regional average terrestrial water storage(TWS) decrease rate in the Tianshan Mountains was –0.7±1.53 cm/a during 2003–2015. The highest TWS deficit region was located in the central part of the Tianshan Mountains, which was closely related to sharp glacial retreats. The increases in glacier and snow meltwater led to an increase in runoff in the three typical river basins, especially that of the Aksu River(0.4×10~8 m~3/a). The decreasing and thinning of areas, and increasing equilibrium line altitude(ELV) of glaciers have been the major causes for the decrease in runoff in the three river basins since the mid-1990 s. Therefore, the results reveal the mechanisms causing the impacts of glaciers and snow reduction in mountains on regional water resources under climate change, and provide a reference for water resources management in the mountainous river basins.  相似文献   

5.
The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.  相似文献   

6.
Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen＇s Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that： （1） between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. （2） Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period （from June to September） when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. （3） The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.  相似文献   

7.
The Qinling Mountains, located at the junction of warm temperate and subtropical zones, serve as the boundary between north and south China. Exploring the sensitivity of the response of vegetation there to hydrothermal dynamics elucidates the dynamics and mechanisms of the main vegetation types in the context of changes in temperature and moisture. Importance should be attached to changes in vegetation in different climate zones. To reveal the sensitivity and areal differentiation of vegetation responses to hydrothermal dynamics, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the normalized vegetation index(NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) on the northern and southern slopes of the Qinling Mountains from 2000 to 2018 are explored using the meteorological data of 32 meteorological stations and the MODIS NDVI datasets. The results show that: 1) The overall vegetation coverage of the Qinling Mountains improved significantly from 2000 to 2018. The NDVI rise rate and area ratio on the southern slope were higher than those on the northern slope, and the vegetation on the southern slope improved more than that on the northern slope. The Qinling Mountains showed an insignificant humidification trend. The humidification rate and humidification area of the northern slope were greater than those on the southern slope. 2) Vegetation on the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains was more sensitive to hydrothermal dynamics than that on the southern slope. Vegetation was most sensitive to hydrothermal dynamics from March to June on the northern slope, and from March to May(spring) on the southern slope. The vegetation on the northern and southern slopes was mainly affected by hydrothermal dynamics on a scale of 3–7 months, responding weakly to hydrothermal dynamics on a scale of 11–12 months. 3) Some 90.34% of NDVI and SPEI was positively correlated in the Qinling Mountains. Spring humidification in most parts of the study area promoted the growth of vegetation all the year round. The sensitivity of vegetation responses to hydrothermal dynamics with increasing altitude increased first and then decreased. Elevations of 800 to 1200 m were the most sensitive range for vegetation response to hydrothermal dynamics. The sensitivity of the vegetation response at elevations of 1200–3000 m decreased with increasing altitude. As regards to vegetation type, grass was most sensitive to hydrothermal dynamics on both the northern and southern slopes of the Qinling Mountains; but most other vegetation types on the northern slope were more sensitive to hydrothermal dynamics than those on the southern slope.  相似文献   

8.
Maintenance of steady streamflow is a critical attribute of the continental river systems for safeguarding downstream ecosystems and agricultural production.Global climate change imposes a potential risk to water supply from the headwater by changing the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and evapotranspiration in the region.To determine if and to what extent the recent climate changes affected streamflow in major river systems,we examined the pattern of temporal variations in precipitation,temperature,evapotranspiration and changes in runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau.We identified 1989 as the turning point for a statistically significant 14% reduction in streamflow discharge(P 0.05) for the period 1989–2017 compared with 1958–1988,approximately coinciding with changes in the monthly distribution but not the interannual variations of precipitation,and detected a mismatch between precipitation and runoff after 2000.Both annual precipitation and runoff discharge displayed fourand eight-year cyclic patterns of changes for the period 1958–1988,and a six-year cyclic pattern of changes for the period 1989–2017,with two intensified two-year cyclic patterns in the changes of precipitation and a three-year cyclic pattern in the change of runoff further detected for the later period.Our results indicate that the temporal changes in runoff are not strictly consistent with the temporal variations of precipitation in the headwater region of Yellow River during the period 1958–2017.In particular,a full recovery in annual precipitation was not reflected in a full recovery in runoff toward the end of the study period.While a review of literature yielded no apparent evidence of raised evapotranspiration in the region due to recent warming,we draw attention to increased local retention of rainwater as a possible explanation of differential changes in precipitation and runoff.  相似文献   

9.
1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8  
Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.  相似文献   

10.
Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas.  相似文献   

11.
The daily snow cover data from 232 meteorological stations to the west of 105°E in China for the period 1951–2004 were used to classify the snow cover and analyze decadal variations of snow cover types in western China, and comparison was made between the observational data and those retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing data (SMMR and SSM/I) in 1980–2004. The results show that stable snow-covered areas included northern Xinjiang, the Tianshan Mountains, and the eastern Tibetan Plateau with more than 60 snow cover days; no snow cover was found in the center of the southern Xinjiang Basin, the Sichuan Basin, and southern Yunnan. In addition to the above-mentioned, there were unstable snow-covered areas in western China. Furthermore, the snow cover types in northern Xinjiang, the Tianshan Mountains, the Hexi Corridor, and the vast areas from Chengdu to Kunming were unchanged. In the 1980s, the south-north dividing line between the major snow-covered area and snow-free area advanced to its most southern position. The snow cover days calculated from satellite remote sensing were generally longer than those from observational data in western China, mainly in the higher-altitude mountains, the Hexi Corridor, and the western Sichuan Plateau.  相似文献   

12.
The glaciers of the Hengduan Mountains play an important role in the hydrology processes of this region. In this study, the HBV Light model, which relies on a degree-day model to simulate glacier melting, was employed to simulate both glacier runoff and total runoff. The daily temperature and precipitation at the Hailuo Creek No. 1 Glacier from 1952 to 2009 were obtained from daily meteorological observed data at the glacier and from six national meteorological stations near the Hailuo Creek Basin. The daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth, and monthly potential evaporation in 1995, 1996, and 2002 were used to obtain a set of optimal parameters, and the annual total runoff and glacier runoff of the Hailuo Creek Glacier(1952–2009) were calculated using the HBV Light model. Results showed the average annual runoff in the Hailuo Creek Basin was 2,114 mm from 1952 to 2009, of which glacial melting accounted for about 1,078 mm. The river runoff in the Hailuo Creek catchment increased as a result of increased glacier runoff. Glacier runoff accounted for 51.1% of the Hailuo Creek stream flow in 1994 and increased to 72.6% in 2006. About 95% of the increased stream flow derived from the increased glacier runoff.  相似文献   

13.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between mineral resources exploitation and economic and urban development in Xinjiang. The article summarizes the mineral resource exploitation development of Xinjiang especially over the last 50 years, and investigates energy industries and their driving forces, directions, and economic impact on the oasis urban system evolution in Xinjiang. Methods like correlation analysis, location quotient and elastic coefficient are employed in the presentation and discussion, and also field reconnaissance surveys, interviews and secondary sources are used. The result shows Xinjiang＇s economic growth is promoted by the contributions of the increasing mineral resource industry which promotes economic development by accelerating infrastructure construction, developing industry and raising revenue and fixed investment. Mineral exploitation in recent years had profound impacts on urban development as a growth engine. The evolution of urban system has a close relationship with resource exploitation, and statistical results provide strong evidence to support the argument that mineral resource exploitation has promoted the growth of built-up areas and its expansion patterns in Xinjiang, especially regions along the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.  相似文献   

14.
Research on the spatio-temporal correlation between the intensity of human activities and the temperature of earth surfaces is of great significance in many aspects, including fully understanding the causes and mechanisms of climate change, actively adapting to climate change, pursuing rational development, and protecting the ecological environment.Taking the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, located in the arid area of northwestern China and extremely sensitive to climate change, as the resear...  相似文献   

15.
1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.  相似文献   

16.
Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.  相似文献   

17.
Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, great uncertainties still exist in the response of climate extremes, especially in Central Asia(CA). In this study, we investigated spatial-temporal variation trends and abrupt changes in 17 indices of climate extremes, based on daily climate observations from 55 meteorological stations in CA during 1957–2005. We also speculated as to which atmospheric circulation factors had the greatest impacts on climate extremes. Our results indicated that the annual mean temperature(Tav), mean maximum and minimum temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.32℃/10 a, 0.24℃/10 a and 0.41℃/10 a, respectively, which was far higher than the increasing rates either globally or across the Northern Hemisphere. Other temperature extremes showed widespread significant warming trends, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. All temperature extremes exhibited spatially widespread rising trends. Compared to temperature changes, precipitation extremes showed higher spatial and temporal variabilities. The annual total precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 4.76 mm/10 a, and all precipitation extremes showed rising trends except for annual maximum consecutive dry days(CDD), which significantly decreased at a rate of –3.17 days/10 a. On the whole, precipitation extremes experienced slight wetter trends in the Tianshan Mountains, Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik(Hill), the Kyzylkum Desert and most of Xinjiang. The results of Cumulative Deviation showed that Tav and Txav had a significant abrupt change around 1987, and all precipitation indices experienced abrupt changes in 1986. Spearman's correlation analysis pointed to Siberian High and Tibetan Plateau Index_B as possibly being the most important atmospheric circulation factors affecting climate extremes in CA. A full quantitative understanding of these changes is crucial for the management and mitigation of natural hazards in this region.  相似文献   

18.
Water shortage is a chronic problem in arid Northwest China.The rapid population growth and expanding urbanization as well as potential climate change impacts are likely to worsen the situation,threatening domestic,irrigation,and industrial supplies and even the survival of the ecosystems in Northwest China.This paper describes the preliminary work of adapting the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model(DLBRM) to the Heihe watershed(the second largest inland river in arid Northwestern China,with a drainage area of 128,000 km2) for understanding distribution of glacial-snow melt,groundwater,surface runoff,and evapotranspi-ration,and for assessing hydrological impacts of climate change and glacial recession on water supply in the middle and lower reaches of the watershed.Preliminary simulation results show that the Qilian Mountain in the upper reach area produces most runoff in the Heihe watershed.The simulated daily river flows during the period of 1990-2000 indicate that the Heihe River dis-charges about 1×109 m3 of water from the middle reach(at Zhengyixia Station) to lower reach,with surface runoff and interflow contributing 51 and 49 percent respectively.The sandy lower soil zone in the middle reach has the highest evapotranspiration rate and also contributes nearly half of the river flow.Work underway focuses on the DLBRM model improvement and incorporation of the climate change and management scenarios to the hydrological simulations in the watershed.  相似文献   

19.
Zhao  Guining  Zhang  Zhengyong  Liu  Lin  Li  Zhongqin  Wang  Puyu  Xu  Liping 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(6):988-1004
The glacier mass balance(GMB) is an important link between climate and water resources and has remarkable regulatory functions in river runoff. To simulate changes of the GMB and to analyze the recharge rates of glacier meltwater to runoff in the Manas River Basin(MRB) during 2000–2016, MOD11 C3, TRMM 3 B43 and other multi-source remote sensing data were used to drive the degree-day model. The results showed that:(1) the accuracy of the remote sensing meteorological data can be corrected effectively by constructing the temperature and precipitation inversion models, and the characteristics of glacial climate can be finely described through downscaling. The average annual temperature was –7.57 °C and the annual precipitation was 410.71 mm in the glacier area of the MRB. The zone at an altitude of about 4200 m was a severe climate change zone, and above and below that zone, the temperature drop rates were –0.03°C/100 m and –0.57°C/100 m, respectively, while precipitation gradients were –2.66 mm/100 m and 4.89 mm/100 m, respectively.(2) The overall GMB was negative with a cumulative GMB of up to –9811.19 mm w.e. and the average annual GMB fluctuated between –464.85 and –632.19 mm w.e. Besides, the glacier melted slowly during 2000–2002 and 2008–2010, but rapidly for 2002–2008 and 2010–2016, while the most serious loss of the glacier occurred in 2005–2009. Moreover, the vertical changes of the GMB increased at 244.83 mm w.e./100 m in the ablation zone but only at 18.77 mm w.e./100 m in the accumulation zone.(3) The intraannual runoff strongly responded to the change of the GMB especially in July and August when the loss of the GMB accounted for 75.4% of the annual loss, and when runoff accounted for 55.1% of the annual total. Due to differences in the annual precipitation and snow meltwater outside the glacier, the interannual glacier meltwater recharge rates fluctuated between 19% and 31%. The recharge rate of glacier meltwater to runoff in the MRB was close to that for other basins in the Tianshan Mountains, which may be used as a basis to confirm the reliability of the estimated GMB results. Furthermore, based on the present findings, it is recommended that the research community pursue studies on the GMB in other alpine river basins.  相似文献   

20.
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.  相似文献   

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