共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 984 毫秒
1.
J. Birkmann O. D. Cardona M. L. Carreño A. H. Barbat M. Pelling S. Schneiderbauer S. Kienberger M. Keiler D. Alexander P. Zeil T. Welle 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):193-211
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts. 相似文献
2.
A framework for spatio-temporal scales and concepts from different disciplines: the ‘vulnerability cube’ 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The concept of vulnerability is increasingly used in the fields of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, as well as socioeconomic studies. This paper reviews research inputs into the concept of vulnerability and highlights the challenges of resolving its spatial and temporal variability with building resilience and adaptation. We hypothesise that a clear understanding of scale is key to integrating these related issues, by differentiating three dimensions of scale when analysing relationships between the observed and the intrinsic scale of a given phenomenon, namely space, time and dimensional level. The paper analyses 20 vulnerability assessment approaches, ranging from the global down to the local scale, and positions them with regard to their integration of the spatial component. We then develop a vulnerability cube as a framework to position existing approaches and to map them in a three-dimensional space. The three axes represent space, time and dimension and provide a structure for the different notions of scales and ultimately for a spatial analysis workflow. The vulnerability cube framework helps us to position different vulnerability assessments and to identify overlaps, differences and specific characteristics. Additionally, this three-dimensional conceptualisation allows the identification and discussion of appropriate scaling issues. 相似文献
3.
Shabana Khan 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1587-1607
An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. 相似文献
4.
Agriculture communities in the Himalayas are disproportionately vulnerable due to the emerging challenges from climatic and non-climatic stressors. In this study, we systematically review peer-reviewed literature focused on vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities (n = 26) in the five Himalayan countries (Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). We examine the yearly distribution, geographical scale, methodological approach, stress in consideration, indicators used, and assessment communication methods of the reviewed papers. Our findings indicate that vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities in the Himalayas is a recent practice, as all of the reviewed articles were published after 2007. About 62% of the assessments were conducted at local (household, community, and village) level, and few assessments at sub-national (19%) and basin (12%) levels. Indicator-based methods using primary quantitative data were most common (54%). Further, 90% of the studies addressed vulnerability to a single stressor with 50% of papers dealing with the vulnerability of agriculture communities to climate change and/or climate variability. From the analysis of the literature, it was found that multi-level, multi-stress, and comprehensive socio-ecological assessments were seldom attempted. Mostly the studies were done in isolated pockets and failed to identify the patterns of vulnerability. We advocate that to holistically understand the vulnerability-creating and differentiating mechanisms in agriculture communities, vulnerability assessment should adopt a multi-level approach by integrating both social and ecological determinants, firstly to identify the hotspots of vulnerability and then to deeply understand the root causes in the identified hotspots through integrated analysis. 相似文献
5.
Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies
to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people
are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this
article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how
everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit
the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their
risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health
conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity
and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood
management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen
adaptive capacity to present and future floods. 相似文献
6.
Troy Sternberg 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):533-548
Transboundary hazard risk reflects how different societies interact with disaster in a shared landscape. In the Gobi desert of northern China and southern Mongolia recurring drought, extreme cold, wind and dust storms are the dominant hazards yet disasters vary significantly in the two countries. Research examined national approaches to environmental engagement and livelihoods in the desert through an assessment of disaster risk in two Gobi communities; farmers in Gansu Province, China, and herders in Dundgov and Omnogov Provinces, Mongolia. Exposure and resilience was evaluated and work examined how risk factors are shaped by policy, economics, culture and social memory. Comparison between two state systems reveals how disaster risk and vulnerability are shaped as much by human action as by the physical climatic event. China stressed government-led disaster management whilst Mongolia emphasised adaptation to hazards. Integrating multiple divisions within a hazard zone is essential to address risk reduction; without this disaster mitigation remains state-specific and lacks applicability to a wider area or global context. 相似文献
7.
滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。 相似文献
8.
Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most
mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures.
The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed
for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together
hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss
information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period
of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings
are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is
performed. 相似文献
9.
Physical vulnerability assessment for alpine hazards: state of the art and future needs 总被引：8，自引：5，他引：3
Mountain hazards such as landslides, floods and avalanches pose a serious threat to human lives and development and can cause
considerable damage to lifelines, critical infrastructure, agricultural lands, housing, public and private infrastructure
and assets. The assessment of the vulnerability of the built environment to these hazards is a topic that is growing in importance
due to climate change impacts. A proper understanding of vulnerability will lead to more effective risk assessment, emergency
management and to the development of mitigation and preparedness activities all of which are designed to reduce the loss of
life and economic costs. In this study, we are reviewing existing methods for vulnerability assessment related to mountain
hazards. By analysing the existing approaches, we identify difficulties in their implementation (data availability, time consumption)
and differences between them regarding their scale, the consideration of the hazardous phenomenon and its properties, the
consideration of important vulnerability indicators and the use of technology such as GIS and remote sensing. Finally, based
on these observations, we identify the future needs in the field of vulnerability assessment that include the user-friendliness
of the method, the selection of all the relevant indicators, the transferability of the method, the inclusion of information
concerning the hazard itself, the use of technology (GIS) and the provision of products such as vulnerability maps and the
consideration of the temporal pattern of vulnerability. 相似文献
10.
Herslund Lise Byskov Jalayer Fatemeh Jean-Baptiste Nathalie J&#;rgensen Gertrud Kabisch Sigrun Kombe Wilbard Lindley Sarah Nyed Patrik Karlsson Pauleit Stephan Printz Andreas Vedeld Trond 《Natural Hazards》2015,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.
相似文献11.
A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport 总被引：11，自引：6，他引：5
In quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed as a function of hazard, elements at risk exposed, and vulnerability. Vulnerability
is defined as the expected degree of loss for an element at risk as a consequence of a certain event, following a natural-scientific
approach combined with economic methods of loss appraisal. The resulting value ranges from 0 (no damage) to 1 (complete destruction).
With respect to torrent processes, i.e., fluvial sediment transport, this concept of vulnerability—though widely acknowledged—did
not result in sound quantitative relationships between process intensities and associated degrees of loss so far, even if
considerable loss occurred during recent years. To close this gap and establish this relationship, data from three well-documented
torrent events in the Austrian Alps were used to derive a quantitative vulnerability function applicable to residential buildings
located on torrent fans. The method applied followed a spatially explicit empirical approach within a GIS environment and
was based on process intensities, the spatial characteristics of elements at risk, and average reconstruction values on a
local scale. Additionally, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level.
The results suggest a modified Weibull distribution to fit best to the observed damage pattern if intensity is quantified
in absolute values, and a modified Frechet distribution if intensity is quantified relatively in relation to the individual
building height. Additionally, uncertainties resulting from such an empirical approach were studied; in relation to the data
quality a 90% confidence band was found to represent the data range appropriately. The vulnerability relationship obtained
allows for an enhanced quantification of torrent risk, but also for an inclusion in comprehensive vulnerability models including
physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability. As a result, vulnerability to mountain hazards might decrease
in the future. 相似文献
12.
Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers. 相似文献
13.
Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes,
implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment
system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought
in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective
than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their
financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention
and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However,
over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in
the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human
vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to
threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss.
Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much
of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the
physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using
human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology.
This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve
coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual
and policy importance. 相似文献
14.
Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh 总被引：14，自引：8，他引：6
Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness
of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework,
which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation
index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social
and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic
maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic
maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk
to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh. 相似文献
15.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
16.
Lise Byskov Herslund Fatemeh Jalayer Nathalie Jean-Baptiste Gertrud Jørgensen Sigrun Kabisch Wilbard Kombe Sarah Lindley Patrik Karlsson Nyed Stephan Pauleit Andreas Printz Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation. 相似文献
17.
Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Scira Menoni Daniela Molinari Dennis Parker Francesco Ballio Sue Tapsell 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(3):2057-2082
Vulnerability studies have evolved significantly in recent decades. Although not overly theoretical compared with some other fields of science, some important conceptual progress has been made. At the practical level, vulnerability indicators have been used either at a generic level or for particular hazard contexts. However, these indicators are often predictably too narrow in their coverage of aspects of vulnerability. An important need remains to produce more conceptually informed vulnerability indicators or parameters and more satisfactory operational tools to assess weaknesses and resilience in coping with natural risks. In this paper, we present the methodology developed in the context of a recently concluded EU funded project, ENSURE (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards). The resulting vulnerability and resilience assessment framework tool adopts a systemic approach embedding and integrating as much as possible the multifaceted and articulated nature of concepts such as vulnerability and resilience. The tool guides evaluators towards a comprehensive and context-related understanding of strengths and fragilities of a given territory and community with respect to natural extremes. In this paper, both the framework tool and its application to Sondrio in Italy, which is exposed to flash floods, are presented and discussed. The merits and demerits of the new tool are discussed, and the results of the application to Sondrio indicate where data are currently missing, suggesting the kind of data, which will need to be gathered in future to achieve more complete assessments. The results also suggest vulnerability reduction policies and actions and further ways of revising the existing framework tool in the future. 相似文献
18.
Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Jochen Schmidt Iain Matcham Stefan Reese Andrew King Rob Bell Roddy Henderson Graeme Smart Jim Cousins Warwick Smith Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192
This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand. 相似文献
19.
J. Birkmann P. Buckle J. Jaeger M. Pelling N. Setiadi M. Garschagen N. Fernando J. Kropp 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):637-655
Disaster associated with natural hazards can lead to important changes—positive or negative—in socio-ecological systems. When
disasters occur, much attention is given to the direct disaster impacts as well as relief and recovery operations. Although
this focus is important, it is noteworthy that there has been little research on the characteristics and progress of change
induced by disasters. Change, as distinct from impacts, encompasses formal and informal responses to disaster events and their
direct and indirect impacts. While smaller disasters do not often lead to significant changes in societies and organizational
structures, major disasters have the potential to change dominant ways of thinking and acting. Against this background, the
article presents an analytical framework for distinguishing change from disaster impacts. Drawing from research in Sri Lanka
and Indonesia, formal and informal changes after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 are examined and discussed against the background
of the conceptual framework. The changes examined range from the commencement of the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, to
organizational and legal reforms in Sri Lanka. The article concludes that change-making processes after disasters need to
be understood more in depth in order to derive important strategic policy and methodological lessons learned for the future,
particularly in view of the increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making due to climate change. 相似文献
20.
Adaptive capacity represents a crucial component in the assessment of a region’s vulnerability to climate change. The term adaptive capacity is only fuzzily defined, and determining it is difficult and often neglected in previous studies. In this paper, a newly developed adaptive capacity concept is introduced, with a respective indicator/criteria system and simple aggregation methods. The approach allows for adaptive capacity assessments at 3 levels of specificity (impact specific, sector specific and regional generic). The selection of indicators is tailor-made for Alpine regions, where the approach has been widely tested. The presented approach requires extended stakeholder involvement, namely for the evaluation of the indicators. The overall effort needed for its implementation remains reasonable. The outcome of the assessment exercise does not provide precise objective measurements, but remains an indicative estimation due to the fuzziness and complexity of the underlying concept. The conceptual approach is transferable to other mountain areas and beyond, the selection of indicators however is only valid for the Alpine region. The showcase presents results from the adaptive capacity assessment in the region of South Tyrol, where the method was carried out as part of a climate change vulnerability study. The outcomes indicate a number of issues that future actions could address in order to improve adaptive capacity in the region, namely in the field of prevention measures against meteorological extremes and natural hazards. 相似文献