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1.
延伸期可预报分量的预报方案和策略 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
延伸期时间尺度虽然超过逐日天气预报时效理论上限,但仍然存在可预报的气象场特征.本文针对延伸期尺度的可预报分量,提出了有针对性的预报方案和策略.基于大气系统的混沌特性,从误差增长的角度在数值模式中分离了可预报分量和不可预报的随机分量,将可预报分量定义为在预报时段内误差增长较慢的分量,它对初值小的误差不极其敏感.通过在预报过程中滤除随机分量,保留可预报性较高的分量,建立起针对可预报分量的数值模式,避免小尺度分量预报误差的快速增长对预报效果的影响.同时,结合历史资料,利用相似-动力方法对可预报分量的预报误差进行订正,达到减小模式误差和从统计角度考虑随机分量对可预报分量影响的目的.结果表明,该方法能有效提高数值模式对可预报分量的预报技巧,从空间分布上体现为对可预报性较高的地区改进更为明显;从空间尺度上看,改进最为明显的是0波,其次是超长波和天气尺度波,与各尺度的可预报性有很好的一致性.该方法能有效减小可预报分量的模式误差,提高预报技巧,显示出良好的业务应用前景. 相似文献
2.
非线性局部Lyapunov指数与大气可预报性研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
鉴于线性误差发展理论研究大气可预报性存在的局限性, 采用非线性扰动发展方程讨论动力系统误差增长规律, 并在此基础上提出一个新概念: 非线性局部Lyapunov指数. 它与经典Lyapunov指数有本质的区别, 可以表征初始误差在有限时间内的局部平均增长率, 大小与初值、初始误差、物理量、演化时间、以及时间尺度、空间尺度有关. 结合该指数的定义以及大气本身的动力学特征给出合理的计算方法, 得到大气初始误差随时间的演化并确定了最大可预报时间. 最后以500 hPa位势高度为例, 详细讨论了非线性局部Lyapunov指数在大气可预报性中的应用, 得到的主要结论是: 大气可预报性具有明显的空间分布特征. 从总体上看, 可预报性呈纬向带状分布. 赤道上的可预报时间最大, 南极地区次之, 北极地区也较大, 南北两半球的副热带和中纬度地区可预报性最小. 在赤道地区, 平均可预报时间为12 d左右, 最大值分布在热带印度洋、印度尼西亚及邻近地区、热带东太平洋等地区, 大约为两周. 南极地区可预报性也很高, 平均可预报时间大约9 d, 这一特征在夏季更显著. 北极地区的可预报性也比邻近中高纬大, 但增加不如南极地区明显. 南北半球中纬度地区(30°~60°S和30°~60°N)的可预报性最小, 平均仅有3~4 d. 另外, 可预报性随季节有差异. 北半球大部分地区, 对应冬季的可预报性比夏季的大, 特别是中高纬北大西洋、北太平洋以及格陵兰岛等地区, 冬季的可预报性明显比夏季的大; 南半球, 南极附近60º~90ºS对应夏季的可预报性明显比冬季的大, 而其他区域尤其在30°~60°S的可预报时间随季节变化不大, 大约3~5 d. 理论和数据计算结果均说明非线性局部Lyapunov指数以及由它得到的非线性局部误差增长确实可以很好地定量表征各种大气物理量在不同时空域下的可预报性. 相似文献
3.
大气环流对热带外海洋存在的不同尺度海温异常的响应研究一直是海气相互作用的热点问题,特别是广泛活跃的中小尺度海温异常对大气的影响.本文使用区域气候模式RegCM4.6,设计了三组不同初值的集合试验,研究了冬季北太平洋地区大尺度环流对黑潮延伸体(KE,Kuroshio Extension)附近不同尺度海温异常的响应特征,并... 相似文献
4.
针对延伸期尺度的可预报分量,借鉴了CNOP相关算法,形成了在数值模式中提取可预报分量的实用方法和预报技术.从模式预报误差增长的角度将模式变量分为可预报分量和不可预报的混沌分量,将可预报分量定义为在预报时段内误差增长较慢的分量.基于现有的国家气候中心月动力延伸预报业务模式,建立了针对可预报分量的数值模式.同时结合历史资料有用信息,对数值模式的可预报分量,在历史资料的可预报分量中寻找相似场,降低了相似判断过程中变量的维数,进一步对可预报分量的预报误差进行订正.对混沌分量利用历史资料,通过集合预报方法得出其期望值和方差.数值试验结果表明,该方法能有效提高10～30天延伸期数值模式大气环流场的预报技巧,具有良好的业务应用前景. 相似文献
5.
海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压脊面演变影响的机制研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据欧洲中期数值预报中心提供的大气环流资料和NOAA提供的海温资料, 应用改进的低阶谱模式方法研究了海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压脊面演变影响的物理机制. 结果表明, 在El Niño型海温强迫下, 大气环流内部动力过程中的大尺度波波和波流相互作用较弱. 随着外部热源强迫从冬季型向夏季型推进, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面北进不明显, 使得夏季西太平洋副热带高压脊面相对偏南. 在La Niña型海温强迫下, 大气环流内部动力过程中的大尺度波波和波流相互作用明显. 随着外源强迫从冬季型向夏季型转变, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面将随之向北移动19个纬度左右, 使得夏季西太平洋副热带高压脊面偏北; 且北移到达一定纬度后, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面表现出较为显著的30~60 d季节内南北振荡, 振幅在4°~7°之间.不同海温异常型所导致的大气内部动力过程差异是造成西太平洋副热带高压脊面年际变化的重要原因之一. 相似文献
6.
由于初始误差的不确定性,非线性系统预报误差也是不确定的,信息熵可以度量这些不确定性.本文将动力学的非线性误差增长理论和统计学的信息理论有效结合,提出了基于非线性误差的信息熵概念.非线性误差的信息熵可分为时间信息熵和空间信息熵,其不仅可用来估计系统整体和各分量的可预报性,还可分析系统各分量之间的联系和各分量对整个系统可预报性的影响.以Lorenz系统为例,本文还研究了非线性误差的信息熵在可预报性中的应用,给出了系统整体可预报性的空间分布.结果表明:无论空间信息熵分析,还是时间信息熵分析,Lorenz系统在两吸引子周围和运动空间边缘运动时,系统对初值的敏感性较小,可预报性较高且可预报期限较长.通过对Lorenz系统可预报性的实例分析,验证了非线性的误差信息熵理论在可预报性研究中的可行性和有效性,尤其在估计系统整体可预报性方面,为下一步研究大气不同气象要素的联合可预报性奠定了理论基础. 相似文献
7.
从理论上探讨如何提高天气预报和气候预测的技巧.气候包括以小时为基本单位的昼夜循环、以日为基本单位的年(季节)循环、年代际循环和世纪循环等时间尺度的变化.这些气候变化存在确定的外强迫,是可以被认识和预报的.相对气候昼夜循环和年(季节)循环的偏差是天气尺度扰动.天气尺度的瞬变大气扰动可引发极端天气事件.有技巧的天气预报正是要通过天气尺度大气扰动信号,提前几天甚至十几天,预报出极端天气事件的发生.相对气候年代际和世纪循环的偏差是气候异常,有技巧的气候预测正是要预报出这种异常.距平天气图会大大提高短期和中期—延伸期天气预报的技巧,距平数值预报模式的研制也会加快提高中期—延伸期天气预报和气候预测的技巧. 相似文献
8.
大气变量可以在时空域内物理分解成四个部分.前两个是纬圈-时间平均的对称部分和时间平均的非对称部分,分别由太阳辐射和海陆分布热力调节的季节变化引起,并形成规则的逐日气候.第三部分是由年际和季节内的热带海洋或极地热力强迫引起的纬圈平均瞬变对称扰动,可形成大气变量的行星尺度指数循环.第四部分是一些复杂的天气尺度瞬变非对称扰动.大气变量中的逐日天气尺度瞬变扰动,可以用于指示区域持续性的干旱、暴雨、低温和热浪等极端天气事件.天气尺度瞬变扰动天气图能在极端天气事件的预报中发挥应有的作用. 相似文献
9.
综合考虑了数值天气预报过程中的两种不确定性：初值和模式的不确定性，建立了一个拥有20个成员的中尺度集合预报系统来模拟1997年热带气旋Danny的路径和对流系统.发现模拟气旋路径的集合平均误差在12 h以后比所有成员的误差都小.通过考察模拟结果对各种不确定性的敏感性，发现两种不确定性在模拟中都很重要,但不同的不确定性对模拟结果的贡献是不同的.初值的不确定性主要影响模式积分的前12 h，模式的不确定性在整个积分过程中始终存在.不确定性最敏感的区域主要分布在气旋附近的强天气区. 相似文献
10.
CMAQ-MOS区域空气质量统计修正模型预报途径研究 总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17
通过分析2004年9月~2005年3月北京城市及远郊地区八个测点的大气污染观测资料, 揭示出城区尺度不同测点大气污染同步性与同位相时空变化特征, 并描述出采暖期与非采暖期大气污染物浓度存在源影响相关季节性显著差异, 城区与远郊测站大气污染物浓度亦表现出排放源影响相关显著的区域性特征, 即大气污染物浓度时空分布与排放源强度及其空间分布密切相关; 本文试验研究表明, 美国EPA新一代空气质量模式CMAQ对多类污染物不同尺度“面空间”分布及其变化倾向虽具有较强的预报能力, 但由于污染源时空特征十分复杂, 这是由于模式采用的平均源排放清单难以精细、客观描述预报区域不同尺度污染源强度的时空变化, CMAQ模式尚存在类似其他模式污染浓度预报量与实况相比明显偏低的“系统性”误差, 为了修正上述模式产品源排放清单产生的系统性预报偏差, 本文利用不同季节CMAQ模式产品与观测实况资料, 建立CMAQ-MOS区域空气质量统计修正预报模型, 并采用检验方法评估CMAQ-MOS方案预报能力, 提出采用CMAQ-MOS统计修正模型统计-动力相结合的空气质量预报新途径, 试验研究结果表明CMAQ-MOS方案可显著降低由于污染源影响不确定性产生的模式系统性预报误差, 明显提高了CMAQ模式空气质量预报水平, 本文亦提出了采用点-面结合预报思路, 即在大气污染具有同位相变化特征的“影响域”范围内, 用一个中心测点的CMAQ-MOS产品预报周边区域面上其他预报点的模式产品“再分析”场以及区域平均空气质量“面预报”方案. 相似文献
11.
Satellite-derived SSTs are validated in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using in situ SSTs from the drifting buoys and well-calibrated sensors installed on Research/Vessel(R/V) Shiyan 3. The satellite SSTs are Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST. Availability of satellite SST, which is the ratio that the number of available satellite SST to the total ocean pixels in NSCS is calculated; annual average SST availabilities of AVHRR daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, TMI daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST are 68.42%, 69.99%, 56.57% and 52.80%, respectively. Though the TMI SST availability is nearly constant throughout the year, the variations of the AVHRR SST availability are much larger because of seasonal variations of cloud cover in NSCS. Validation of the satellite-derived SSTs shows that bias±standard deviation (STD) of AVHRR SST is −0.43±0.76 and −0.33±0.79 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively, and bias±STD of TMI SSTs is 0.07±1.11 and 0.00±0.97 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively. It is clear that AVHRR SSTs have significant regional biases of about −0.4 °C against the drifting buoy SSTs. Differences between satellite-derived−in situ SSTs are investigated in terms of the diurnal SST cycle. When satellite-derived wind speeds decrease down below 6 m/s, the satellite SSTs become higher than the corresponding in situ SSTs, which means that the SST difference (satellite SST−Buoy SST) is positive. This wind-speed dependence of the SST difference is consistent with the previous results, which have mentioned that low wind speed coupled with clear sky conditions (high surface solar radiation) enhance the diurnal SST amplitude and the bulk-skin temperature difference. 相似文献
12.
Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12 days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (30°S―60°S, 30°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3―4 d. In addition, predictability varies with the seasons. Most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the predictability in winter is higher than that in summer, especially in the mid-high latitude: North Atlantic, North Pacific and Greenland Island. However in the Southern Hemisphere, near the Antarctic regions (60°S―90°S), the corresponding summer has higher predictability than its winter, while in other areas especially in the latitudes of 30°S―60°S, the prediction does not change obviously with the seasons and the average time is 3―5 d. Both the theoretical and data computation results show that nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and the nonlinear local error growth really may measure the predictability of the atmospheric variables in different temporal and spatial scales. 相似文献
13.
利用非线性误差增长理论,以Lorenz系统为例比较研究了初始误差和参数误差对混沌系统可预报性的影响．结果表明：在初始误差和参数误差单独存在时,系统的可预报期限随误差大小的变化规律基本上相同;对于相同的误差大小,初始误差和参数误差对系统可预报期限的影响几乎相同,这一结果基本上不随参数范围的变化而变化．当初始误差和参数误差同时存在时,两者对可预报期限影响所起的作用大小主要取决于初始误差和参数误差的相对大小．当初始误差远大于参数误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由初始误差决定,可以不用考虑参数误差对预报模式可预报性的影响;反之,当参数误差远大于初始误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由参数误差决定;当初始误差和参数误差大小相当时,两者都对系统的可预报期限起重要作用．在后两种情况下,在考虑初始误差对可预报性影响的同时还必须考虑参数误差的作用．这提醒我们在作实际数值天气预报的时候,不仅要重视初值的确定,也要重视数值模式控制参数的确定． 相似文献
14.
Analytic expressions are derived for the minimum easterly and westerly jet strengths necessary for baroclinic instability, in terms of their half-widths and location. For this purpose the necessary condition for an internal jet is utilized and the jets and static stability are represented by simple mathematical functions. Dependency of the minimum jet strengths to their half-width and location are discussed. 相似文献
15.
At present, Bangladesh has a flood forecasting lead time of only 3 days or so. There is demand for a forecasting lead time of a month to a season. The primary objectives of this paper are to study the variability and predictability of seasonal flooding in Bangladesh, as revealed by large‐scale predictors of the climate across the watersheds. To explore the source of predictability, accessible Bangladesh hydrological indicators are related to large‐scale oceanic variability and to large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns predicted by general circulation models (GCMs). Correlation analyses between the flood‐affected area (FAA) for July–September and tropical sea‐surface temperature (SST) indicate connections to tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs, at a short lead time of a month or so. These are related to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlations between the SSTs of the preceding October–December and the July–September FAA are weaker but notable. Forecasts of the FAA using the leading principal components (PCs) of SST were made, which provided good skill with a lead time of a month or so. The streamflows and rainfall observed in Bangladesh have been added to these prediction models. Finally, the SST PCs were replaced with PCs of GCM prediction fields (precipitation). The prediction models at short lead time that were constructed for FAA were of generally similar levels of skill to that for SST. This is encouraging, as it suggests that linkages with SST can be successfully recovered in a physical model of the climate system in Bangladesh. This study concludes that seasonal flood prediction in Bangladesh is possible from the unusually warm or cold SST in parts of the tropics. This predictability can be enhanced with the information achievable from monitoring the downstream streamflows (which are generated mainly from upstream rainfall conditions) in advance of the flooding season. Finally, this study recommends formalizing a regional cooperation among the countries in the principal co‐basin areas of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
The influence of the uncertainties of intra-seasonal wind stress forcing on Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied with the Zebiak–Cane model and observational wind data which are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and utilized to extract intra-seasonal wind stress signals as external forcing. The observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing are joined into Zebiak–Cane model to get the Zebiak–Cane-add model and subsequently with the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method, the evolutions of the optimal initial errors (i.e., CNOPs), model errors caused by intra-seasonal wind stress uncertainties, and their joint errors based on ENSO events are calculated. By investigating their error growth rates and prediction errors of Niño-3 indices, the effect of observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing on seasonal error growth of ENSO is explored and the impact of initial error and model error on ENSO predictability is compared quantitatively. The results show that the model errors led by observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing could scarcely cause a significant SPB whereas the initial errors and their joint errors can do; hence, the initial errors are most likely the main error source of SPB. In fact, this result emphasizes the primary influence of initial errors on ENSO predictability and lays the basis of adaptive data assimilation for ENSO forecast. 相似文献
17.
—?The role of sea-surface temperature (SST) and Coriolis parameter in the evolution and intensification of tropical cyclones has been examined using the ten-level axi-symmetric primitive equation model described in the companion paper (Bhaskar Rao and Ashok, 1999). Two experiments have been conducted using the ten-level model to assess the role of Coriolis parameter “f” in tropical cyclone intensity and the size of the storm generated. Six experiments have been performed to assess the importance of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. The initial thermodynamic field and the initial vortex are the same as that used to simulate the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone discussed in the companion paper. Further sensitivity experiments indicated a strong dependency of the model on SSTs. The model initial vortex could not intensify with an SST of 299?K but could with an SST of 300?K. The increase of SST from 300?K to 300.5?K shows rapid intensification with a minimum central surface pressure of 910?hPa and a maximum tangential wind of 80?m/s. Further increase of SST only shows a marginal increase in intensity and a larger radius of maximum wind. Sensitivity experiments to assess the role of the Coriolis parameter suggest that tropical cyclones develop more intensity and are faster at relatively lower latitudes. 相似文献
18.
A Comprehensive Dynamic Threshold Algorithm for Daytime Sea Fog Retrieval over the Chinese Adjacent Seas 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Sea fog influences human activities over oceans. It is somewhat difficult to separate sea fog from marine boundary stratus (low stratus and stratocumulus) by satellites due to their microphysical similarities and shared spectral features. For the purpose of improving sea fog detection over the Chinese adjacent seas where fog is common during the spring–summer seasons, the vertical structures of fog and stratus were analyzed using ground-based soundings, resulting in the observation of very explicit discrepancies between them, in terms of TAT ? SST (TAT, the temperature at tops of fog or stratus; SST, the sea surface temperature). Based on these discrepancies and on previous related studies, we suggest a comprehensive dynamic threshold algorithm. The method combines real-time brightness temperature from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer channel 31 (~11 μm) with climatological monthly mean SSTs to produce a threshold that is monthly-dependent. The retrieved results are generally consistent with the observations from meteorological stations near the coast, on islands and from ships, and the scores of validation by conventional methods are promising. The distribution patterns of the retrieved sea fog frequency in May and June from 2006 to 2010 are both compatible with that from ship-based observations and exhibit more details that are consistent with our understanding of sea fog characteristics. This study is helpful for marine weather service and the improvement of models for sea fog forecasting. 相似文献
19.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2008,70(7):1046-1055
van Loon et al. [2007. Coupled air–sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D02108, doi:10.1029/2006JD007378] showed that the Pacific Ocean in northern winter is sensitive to the influence of the sun in its decadal peaks. We extend this study by three solar peaks to a total of 14, examine the response in the stratosphere, and contrast the response to solar forcing to that of cold events (CEs) in the Southern Oscillation. The addition of three solar peak years confirms the earlier results. That is, in solar peak years the sea level pressure (SLP) is, on average, above normal in the Gulf of Alaska and south of the equator, stronger southeast trades blow across the Pacific equator and cause increased upwelling and thus anomalously lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since the effect on the Pacific climate system of solar forcing resembles CEs in the Southern Oscillation, we compare the two and note that, even though their patterns appear similar in some ways, they are particularly different in the stratosphere and are thus due to separate processes. That is, in July–August (JA) of the year leading into January–February (JF) of the solar peak years, the Walker cell expands in the Pacific troposphere, and the stratospheric wind anomalies are westerly below 25 hPa and easterly above, whereas this signal in the stratosphere is absent in CEs. Thus the large-scale east–west tropical atmospheric (Walker) circulation is enhanced, though not to the extent that it is in CEs in the Southern Oscillation, and the solar influence thus appears as a strengthening of the climatological mean regional precipitation maxima in the tropical Pacific. Additionally, CEs have a 1-year evolution, while the response to solar peaks extends across 3 years such that the signal in the Pacific SLP of the solar peaks is similar but weaker in the year leading into the peak and in the year after the peak. The concurrent negative SST anomalies develop during the year before the solar peak, and after the peak the anomalies are still present but are waning. In the stratosphere in solar peaks, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is amplified when it is in its westerly phase in the lower stratosphere and easterly phase above; and the QBO is suppressed when in its easterly phase below–westerly phase above. Such an association is not evident in CEs. 相似文献
20.
Andrew Orr Edward Hanna Julian C.R. Hunt John Cappelen Konrad Steffen AG Stephens 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(10):1747-1778
The main characteristic features of stable atmospheric flows over a large mountain plateau are summarised and then compared with mesoscale and synoptic scale numerical simulation, meteorological analysis, satellite imagery, and surface observations for the cases of flows over Southern Greenland for four wind directions. The detailed features are identified using the concepts and scaling of stably stratified flow over large mountains with variations in surface roughness, elevation, and heating. For westerly and easterly winds detached jets form at the southern tip, where coastal jets converge, which propagate large distances across the ocean. Near coasts katabatic winds can combine with barrier jets and wake flows generated by synoptic winds. Note how the approach flow rises/falls over southern Greenland for easterly/westerly winds, leading in both cases to more cloud on the western side. Some conclusions are drawn about the large-scale influences of these flows; detached jets in the atmosphere; air-sea interaction; formation of low pressure systems. For accurate simulations of these flows, mesoscale models are necessary with resolutions of order of 20 km or less. 相似文献