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1.
我仅就短临地震预报简谈以下观点。1 短临地震预报存在的问题如果短临预报的科学含义是 :1月际地震趋势预测 ;2月际内地震事件发生的预测 ;3月际地震趋势和地震事件的社会发布。那么 ,我国短临地震预报就存在有不少基本性的科学技术问题。试以事实为例简析之。1 .1 趋势问题图 1是我国国家级分析预报业务系统对2 0 0 0年 1月至 2 0 0 1年 1月期间所作出的短临地震预测趋势标识曲线和实际地震趋势演变曲线。从比较中不难看出 :1差异显著 ,客观趋势的高低走向变化 ,主观预测毫无能力显示 ;2预报者们需要研究科学预报原理 ,避免“猜报”;3预… 相似文献
2.
根据中国地震局地球物理研究所中国数字地震台网数据管理中心 (CDSNDMC)从美国地震学合作研究会数据管理中心 (IRISDMC)得到的最新资料我们统计出 ,2 0 0 3年 6月全球范围内共发生M≥ 5.0地震 85次 (见表 1 ) ,其中M 5～ 5 5地震 59次 ,M 5 6～ 6 0地震 1 8次 ,M 6 1～ 6 5地震 3次 ,M 6 6～ 7 0地震 4次 ,M 7 1～ 7 5地震 1次 ,最大的一次地震发生在巴西西部 ,发震时间为 2 0日 0 6时 1 9分 (UTC) ,MW =7 1。本月发生的 85次M≥ 5 0的地震中有 57次发生在东半球 ,2 8次发生在西半球 ,本月东半球地震发生的频率是西半球的1倍… 相似文献
3.
基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
针对中国大陆东、西部地震活动水平的差异，以东经107^o为界用二种方案进行地震预报效能检验的R值评分。第一种方案用西部5．5级、东部5．0级为检验震级下限；第二种方案以西部6．0级、东部5．0级为检验震级下限。结果表明第一种方案更为科学，13年来中国大陆地震预报效能检验平均的R值约为0．26。进一步考虑不同危险区预报震级与实际发生地震震级间的差异，中还分震级档计算了相应的R值评分。结果显示，我国目前对6．0级左右地震的预测水平较其他震级档更为成功。 相似文献
4.
选取河套盆地及周边地区 (北纬 3 8.5°～ 42°,东经 1 0 6°～ 1 1 3°)为研究区 ,采用《中国地震目录》1 970～ 2 0 0 0 .8,ML≥ 2 .0级地震资料 ,应用“八五”、“九五”攻关研究成果 ,通过对河套盆地中强地震前地震活动图像和测震学指标的全时空扫描分析 ,提取具有预报效能的地震活动图像及参数 ,然后对河套盆地地震地质构造特征、历史中强地震时空分布特征和运用具有预报效能的地震图像、参数对河套盆地近期地震活动进行分析 ,认为河套盆地发生中强地震的危险性不容忽视 相似文献
5.
根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 2月华北地区 ( 3 3 .0°～ 42 .0°N,1 1 1 .0°～1 2 5.0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3 .0地震 6次 (见表 1 )。 9日 7时 58分陡河 ( 3 9.8°N,1 1 8.4°E) ML 4.0地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度略高于上月 ,参考 1 992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,2月处于中等偏低水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等偏低状态 ,震中相对分散 ,虽然在华北东部、西部和中部均有地震发生 ,但发生在华北东部地区的地震占多数。表 1 2 0 0 2年 2月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发 震 时 刻 年月日时分秒 震中… 相似文献
6.
《国际地震动态》2004,(4):20-20
20 0 4年2月2 6—2 9日,2 0 0 4年减轻自然灾害研讨会在北京召开。来自中国科协和中国地震学会等1 8个全国性学会的1 0 2位代表参加了这次会议。会议围绕气圈、水圈、地圈和火圈内的诸多灾种2 0 0 3年的发生情况和2 0 0 4年的发生趋势展开了学术交流。中国地震局分析预报中心的张国民研究员和张晓东研究员代表中国地震学会向会议提交了“2 0 0 4年度我国地震趋势及对策和建议”的报告。会议形成的文件《2 0 0 4年减轻自然灾害白皮书》,将上报中共中央、国务院及各省、自治区、直辖市,为党和政府有关部门减轻自然灾害提供科学依据。2004年减… 相似文献
7.
1999年 1 1月 2 5日澄江发生 5.2级地震 ,2个月后的 2 0 0 0年 1月 2 7日在相邻的丘北 -弥勒地区发生了 5.5级地震 .分析了丘北—弥勒 5.5级地震的区域地震活动背景、地震孕育过程和地震活动性异常特征 ,为探讨在一次中强地震后如何预报后续地震提供了一个震例 . 相似文献
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9.
引言华北地区是中国东部强震活动的主要地区 ,同时又是历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续的地区。对研究该区地震活动时空演变特征提供了完整翔实的资料。前人研究表明 ,地震活动在时间上的分布具有周期性和间歇性 ,在空间分布上具有平静区和丛集区以及地震空段。我们以这些基本观点 ,讨论华北地区地震时空基本特征 ,进而研究强震活动的危险背景。我们以 3 0°～ 4 0°N,1 1 4°～ 1 2 3°E为研究区 ,历史地震选用中国地震简目为基础资料 ,震级下限 M≥ 6;近代地震取自中国地震局分析预报中心编制的地震目录和中国地震月报目录。1 华北… 相似文献
10.
本文回顾了中国地震信息系统的发展历程.1966年3月在我国河北邢台发生的灾害性地震的抗震救灾行动,不仅开辟了我国地震监测预报的先河,而且产生了中国地震信息系统.中国地震信息通信系统的前期是以传递地震观测信号和实时传递地震信号为起始,现在已经为地震观测服务发展成为具有全国规模的行业地震信息平台.全球进入21世纪的信息时代,我国信息技术和信息产业以惊人的速度迅猛发展,地震信息系统在我国信息基础设施发展的基础上,同样发展迅速.信息网络通达地震行业各个角落,地震各项工作无不以信息平台为基础.地震信息系统已经彻底改变了地震监测预报、震害防御和应急救援的工作方式、科研方式,同时促进了人们传统观念的变革,使我国地震事业进入了前所未有的蓬勃发展阶段. 相似文献
11.
D. M. Pechersky A. A. Lyubushin Z. V. Sharonova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(7):613-623
The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The
times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized
by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and
the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between
the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic
world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by
the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle
of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes
in the organic world. 相似文献
12.
The developed dynamic model of the main geomagnetic field (MGF) includes the sources of three levels, which have existed and continuously changed during the 100-year period. The spatial-temporal dynamics of the secular variations in MGF has been considered based on this model. It has been indicated that, at different times, the formation of anomalies (located in similar regions) depended on the total dynamics of different combinations of sources, including a change in the parameters of the dipoles of the secondorder smallness. Anomalies generated by the dynamics of the dipoles of the third-order smallness do not evidently manifest themselves in the total secular variations but are responsible for the specific shapes of isodynamic lines. Based on the stability and continuity of the constructed model, the conclusion is made that long-living turbulent flows of different scales can exist in the liquid core. 相似文献
13.
Yu. F. Moroz T. A. Moroz V. A. Loginov A. G. Nurmukhamedov D. A. Alekseev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(1):29-44
The results of the magnetotelluric (MT) soundings before and after an earthquake are analyzed. The interpretation is based on the longitudinal and transverse MT curves (along and across the strike of the main tectonic elements, respectively). The MT curves are distorted by the ρ- and coast effect. The distortions due to the coast effect are estimated by the testing three-dimensional (3D) model. It is established that the coast effect distortion at the periods up to 1000 s is small and can be disregarded. The divergence of the longitudinal and transverse MT curves, which points to the presence of the deep faults, is thoroughly studied. The inversion of the MTsounding curves is carried out by the REBOCC program of the numerical two-dimensional modeling. This program implements the procedures of elimination of the ρ-effect and the joint inversion of the longitudinal and transverse MT sounding curves. The obtained geoelectrical cross sections provide an insight into the structure of electrical conductivity of the lithosphere before and after the earthquake. The more intense variations in the electric conductivity are observed in the zone of the deep faults. These variations are related to the changes in the porosity and saturation of the rocks by the highly mineralized fluids. 相似文献
14.
M. MONIRUL QADER MIRZA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):613-631
Abstract The basin area of the Ganges River in Bangladesh is extremely dependent on a regular water supply from upstream to meet requirements for agriculture, fisheries, navigation, salinity control, and domestic and industrial sectors. In 1975, India commissioned a barrage on the Ganges River at Farakka to divert a significant portion of the dry season flow in order to make the Calcutta Port navigable. Statistical analyses of discharge and water level data have been carried out to determine if significant changes have occurred in the hydrology of the Ganges system in Bangladesh in the post-Farakka period. Siltation of the Gorai River (an offtake of the Ganges River) has also been examined using the stage-discharge relationship and regression analysis. The analyses show that the diversion has caused considerable hydrological changes in the Ganges system in Bangladesh. The water supply in the dry season has been reduced substantially, while siltation of the Gorai River has increased significantly. 相似文献
15.
In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January. 相似文献
16.
The continuous increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to cool higher levels of the atmosphere. There is some direct and indirect experimental evidence of long-term trends in temperature and other parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Here we look for long-term trends in the annual and semiannual variations of the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere, which corresponds to the MLT region heights. Data from central and southeastern Europe are used. A consistent tendency to a positive trend in the amplitude of the semiannual wave appears to be observed. The reality of a similar tendency in the amplitude of the annual wave is questionable in the sense that the trend in the amplitude of the annual wave is probably induced by the trend in the yearly average values of absorption. The phases of both the annual and semiannual waves display a forward tendency, i.e. shift to an earlier time in the year. A tentative interpretation of these results in terms of changes of the seasonal variation of temperature and wind at MLT heights does not contradict the trends observed in those parameters. 相似文献
17.
George E. Backus 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1982,28(3):191-214
A rigorous singular perturbation theory is developed to estimate the electric field E produced in the mantle M by the core dynamo when the electrical conductivity σ in M depends only on radius r, and when |r?rln σ| ? 1 in most of M. It is assumed that σ has only one local minimum in M, either (a) at the Earth's surface ?V, or (b) at a radius b inside the mantle, or (c) at the core-mantle boundary ?K. In all three cases, the region where σ is no more than e times its minimum value constitutes a thin critical layer; in case (a), the radial electric field Er ≈ 0 there, while in cases (b) and (c), Er is very large there. Outside the critical layer, Er ≈ 0 in all three cases. In no case is the tangential electric field ES small, nearly toroidal, or nearly calculable from the magnetic vector potential A as ??tAS. The defects in Muth's (1979) argument which led him to contrary conclusions are identified. Benton (1979) cited Muth's work to argue that the core-fluid velocity u just below ?K can be estimated from measurements on ?V of the magnetic field B and its time derivative . A simple model for westward drift is discussed which shows that Benton's conclusion is also wrong.In case (a), it is shown that knowledge of σ in M is unnecessary for estimating ES on ?K with a relative error |r?r 1nσ|?1from measurements of ES on ?V and knowledge of ?tB in M (calculable from ?tB on ?V if σ is small). Then, in case (a), u just below ?K can be estimated as . The method is impractical unless the contribution to ES on ?V from ocean currents can be removed.The perturbation theory appropriate when σ in M is small is considered briefly; smallness of σ and of |r?r ln σ|?1 a independent questions. It is found that as σ → 0, B approaches the vacuum field in M but E does not; the explanation lies in the hydromagnetic approximation, which is certainly valid in M but fails as σ → 0. It is also found that the singular perturbation theory for |r?r ln σ|?1 is a useful tool in the perturbation calculations for σ when both σ and |r?r ln σ|?1 are small. 相似文献
18.
Yu. V. Balabin A. V. Germanenko B. B. Gvozdevsky E. V. Vashenyuk 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2014,54(3):347-356
X-ray intensity variations in the surface layer of the atmosphere during precipitation in Apatity and Spitsbergen were analyzed. Based on a comprehensive system of monitoring over the radiation background, X-ray radiation variations were detected. These variations were found to be associated with meteorological processes in the lower atmosphere. X-ray energy spectra were obtained under good weather and precipitation conditions. These spectra have no characteristic lines inherent to radionuclides. Additional studies make it possible to suggest that the growth in X-ray radiation during precipitation is mainly caused by braking radiation of energetic electrons additionally accelerated by electric fields in rain clouds. 相似文献
19.
Site response in the Qionghai Basin in the Wenchuan earthquake 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Amplification effects of soil site response can significantly impact ground motions, and must be considered in the seismic fortification of buildings/structures to prevent or mitigate this potential seismic hazard. Utilizing acceleration time histories from the main shock of the Wenchuan earthquake recorded at four stations (i.e., one on bedrock and three on soil) in the Qionghai Basin, the site responses from three soil sites are studied by using the traditional spectral ratio method. The bedrock site is selected as a reference site. This study found that peak ground accelerations (PGAs) on the soil sites are much larger than on bedrock, with EW, NS and UD components of 3.96–6.58, 6.27–10.98, and 3.17–6.66 times those of the bedrock site, respectively. The amplification effects of the soil sites on ground motions in the frequency range of 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz are significant, depending on the thickness of the soil layer and the frequency content of the site. A significant amplification occurs with high frequency components of ground motion at shallow soil sites, and low and high frequency components of ground motion at intermediate soil sites. 相似文献
20.
Variations in the Caspian Sea Level in the Historic Epoch 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Reconstruction of variations in the Caspian Sea level is proposed based on the results of investigations of deposits in the Agrakhan sand bar and bays (or former bays) of the eastern sea coast. The history of sedimentation in particular regions is reconstructed by the radiocarbon dating. Generalized data on the age of deposits are used to construct the most likely temporal course of variations in the sea level within the historic epoch. 相似文献