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1.
Kasım Armağan Korkmaz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(3):467-476
A significant proportion of the urban areas in Turkey is subject to high seismic risk. An important step for seismic risk
mitigation is to define the hazard and damage after an earthquake. This paper proposes an integrated seismic hazard assessment
and disaster management processes for Turkey. The proposed methodology utilizes information technologies in its seismic assessment
component that provides fast results for assessment. First, image process methodology by using satellite images was implemented
in the seismic assessment process for fast evaluation right after an earthquake. Second, the seismic assessment process was
integrated with disaster management process. As a result, through integrated seismic hazard evaluation and disaster management
procedure, an effective, fast and dependable estimation of loss for Turkey was planned. 相似文献
2.
Worldwide, earthquakes and related disasters have persistently had severe negative impacts on human livelihoods and have caused widespread socioeconomic and environmental damage. The severity of these disasters has prompted recognition of the need for comprehensive and effective disaster and emergency management (DEM) efforts, which are required to plan, respond to and develop risk mitigation strategies. In this regard, recently developed methods, known as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), have been widely used in DEM domains by emergency managers to greatly improve the quality of the decision-making process, making it more participatory, explicit, rational and efficient. In this study, MCDA techniques of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), integrated with GIS, were used to produce earthquake hazard and risk maps for earthquake disaster monitoring and analysis for a case study region of Küçükçekmece in Istanbul, Turkey. The five main criteria that have the strongest influence on the impact of earthquakes on the study region were determined: topography, distance to epicentre, soil classification, liquefaction and fault/focal mechanism. AHP was used to determine the weights of these parameters, which were also used as input into the TOPSIS method and GIS (ESRI ArcGIS) for simulating these outputs to produce earthquake hazard maps. The resulting earthquake hazard maps created by both the AHP and TOPSIS models were compared, showing high correlation and compatibility. To estimate the elements at risk, population and building data were used with the AHP and TOPSIS hazard maps for potential loss assessment; thus, we demonstrated the potential of integrating GIS with AHP and TOPSIS in generating hazard maps for effective earthquake disaster and risk management. 相似文献
3.
金江军 《地质灾害与环境保护》2007,18(1):1-5
地震是典型的突发性地质灾害,破坏性极大.本文首先对1996～2005年这10年间的大陆地震发生情况以及地震灾害情况进行了统计分析,列举了直接经济损失超过1亿元的重大地震灾害,指出大陆防震减灾要有地域特点;然后提出了一些防震减灾建议,如注意防范地震引发的次生灾害,加强建筑抗震设计和加固,推广使用现代信息技术,积极开展防震减灾能力评价,通过合理的城市规划和土地利用规划来减轻地震灾害. 相似文献
4.
Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Kasım Armağan Korkmaz 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(2):307-320
Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes
revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many
of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy
is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after
earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council
(ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This
paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment
discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage
are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based
analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic
hazard for Turkey. 相似文献
5.
Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains. 相似文献
6.
地震造成斜坡失稳是其引起的最为显著的次生灾害,在小震频发,大震多发的现实背景下,开展不同等级地震作用条件下斜坡危险性评价对区域防灾减灾、地质灾害风险管控及国土空间规划的现实意义日渐凸显。基于拟静力法,根据斜坡所处场地类别和不同超越概率水平地震作用,对其地震动峰值加速度进行调整,确定斜坡不同等级地震作用下的综合水平地震系数,计算不同等级地震作用引起的作用于斜坡重心处的水平和竖向惯性力,以极限平衡法为理论基础,计算不同等级地震作用下斜坡稳定性系数,结合危险性指数法,计算不同等级地震作用下斜坡失稳概率和危险性指数,据此对斜坡不同等级地震作用下的危险性进行划分。结果表明斜坡稳定性系数随地震作用的增强逐渐减小,斜坡失稳概率随地震作用的增强逐渐增大,斜坡危险性指数随地震作用的增强逐渐增大,斜坡危险性亦随地震作用的增强逐渐增大。 相似文献
7.
Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity. 相似文献
8.
Amod Mani Dixit Ryuichi Yatabe Ranjan Kumar Dahal Netra Prakash Bhandary 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):631-654
Situated over the Himalayan tectonic zone, Kathmandu Valley as a lake in geological past has a long history of destructive earthquakes. In recent years, the earthquake risk of the valley has significantly increased due mainly to uncontrolled development, poor construction practices with no earthquake safety consideration, and lack of awareness among the general public and government authorities. Implementation of land use plan and building codes, strengthening of design and construction regulations, relocation of communities in risky areas, and conduction of public awareness programs are suitable means of earthquake disaster risk management practice. Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, is still lacking earthquake disaster risk management plans. So, this paper highlights some initiatives adopted by both governmental and nongovernmental organizations of Nepal to manage earthquake disaster risk in the Kathmandu Valley. It provides some comprehensive information on recent initiatives of earthquake disaster risk management in the valley and also highlights the outcomes and challenges. 相似文献
9.
Disaster mitigation as a pre-disaster measure within the scope of disaster risk management is significant in the sense of reducing the adverse effects of earthquakes in the context of earthquake-sensitive risk planning. In the urban planning context, the existence of numerous decision makers and alternatives, which are depending on many criteria, makes decision-making process difficult. This difficulty was overcomed through geographical information systems (GIS). In the context of GIS-based multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis, we used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center. First, AHP analysis related to geological and superstructure/infrastructure criteria was conducted and two separate AHP maps were obtained. Then, we conducted TOPSIS analysis to consider both criteria in the sense of earthquake risk-sensitive planning. Then, overall earthquake risk map obtained which could be used as an input for disaster mitigation processes.
相似文献10.
Considering the number of endangered museums in Istanbul and the size of their collections, assessing and mitigating the earthquake
risk is an immense task by any standard. This paper provides a status report on the current earthquake risk mitigation efforts
taken by the museums in Turkey. It summarizes several projects that have been carried out over the past few years to protect
museums and its collections from earthquake damage and defines future actions that would mitigate earthquake risks associated
with museum buildings and their contents. 相似文献
11.
In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community
is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research.
Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities,
a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial
analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution
analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation
destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was
found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation
on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters. 相似文献
12.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
13.
Stephen H. Cutcliffe 《GeoJournal》2000,51(3):259-262
Seismologists and earthquake engineers have sought to understand and predict earthquakes and to develop better building designs to withstand them for well over a century. In the United States, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake provided the first real impetus for establishing building design codes and safety standards. Subsequent major California earthquakes in Santa Barbara (1925), Long Beach (1933), San Fernando (1971), Loma Prieta (1989), and Northridge (1994) each led to additional seismological understanding and engineering response in the form of enhanced building design codes. Nonetheless, the process to incorporate good seismic design and mitigation efforts has been slow, and by no means failsafe, especially in the Eastern U.S. where much of the building stock predates more recent design codes, and hence where a major earthquake could collapse large numbers of buildings. Even in the absence of catastrophe, it is still important to guard against a false sense of security. 相似文献
14.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard
analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake
Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First,
it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it
helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose
their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing
the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis
modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction
potential, building damage and casualty. 相似文献
15.
Assessing building vulnerability to earthquake and tsunami hazard using remotely sensed data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
M. Mück H. Taubenböck J. Post S. Wegscheider G. Strunz S. Sumaryono F. A. Ismail 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(1):97-114
Quantification of building vulnerability to earthquake and tsunami hazards is a key component for the implementation of structural mitigation strategies fostering the essential shift from post-disaster crisis reaction to preventive measures. Facing accelerating urban sprawl and rapid structural change in modern urban agglomerations in areas of high seismic and tsunami risk, the synergetic use of remote sensing and civil engineering methods offers a great potential to assess building structures up-to-date and area-wide. This paper provides a new methodology contextualizing key components in quantifying building vulnerability with regard to sequenced effects of seismic and tsunami impact. The study was carried out in Cilacap, a coastal City in Central Java, Indonesia. Central is the identification of significant correlations between building characteristics, easily detectable by remote sensing techniques, and detailed in situ measurements stating precise building vulnerability information. As a result, potential vertical evacuation shelters in the study area are detected and a realistic vulnerability assessment of the exposed building stock is given. These findings obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as awareness and preparedness strategies and can be implemented in local disaster management. 相似文献
16.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):391-400
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
17.
18.
H. Aghamohammadi M. S. Mesgari A. Mansourian D. Molaei 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(5):931-939
In Iran, earthquakes cause enormous damage to the people and economy. If there is a proper estimation of human losses in an earthquake disaster, it could be appropriately responded and its impacts and losses will be decreased. Neural networks can be trained to solve problems involving imprecise and highly complex nonlinear data. Based on the different earthquake scenarios and diverse kind of constructions, it is difficult to estimate the number of injured people. With respect to neural network’s capabilities, this paper describes a back propagation neural network method for modeling and estimating the severity and distribution of human loss as a function of building damage in the earthquake disaster. Bam earthquake data in 2003 were used to train this neural network. The final results demonstrate that this neural network model can reveal much more accurate estimation of fatalities and injuries for different earthquakes in Iran and it can provide the necessary information required to develop realistic mitigation policies, especially in rescue operation. 相似文献
19.
Turkey is one of several countries frequently facing significant earthquakes because of its geological and tectonic position on earth. Especially, graben systems of Western Turkey occur as a result of seismically quite active tensional tectonics. The prediction of earthquakes has been one of the most important subjects concerning scientists for a long time. Although different methods have already been developed for this task, there is currently no reliable technique for finding the exact time and location of an earthquake epicenter. Recently artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been used for earthquake studies in addition to their successful application in a broad spectrum of data intensive applications from stock market prediction to process control. In this study, earthquake data from one part of Western Turkey (37–39.30° N latitude and 26°–29.30° E longitude) were obtained from 1975 to 2009 with a magnitude greater than M ≥ 3. To test the performance of AI in time series, the monthly earthquake frequencies of Western Turkey were calculated using catalog data from the region and then the obtained data set was evaluated with two neural networks namely as the multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNNs) and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The results show that for monthly earthquake frequency data prediction, the proposed RBFNN provides higher correlation coefficients with real data and smaller error values. 相似文献
20.
E. L. Lekkas 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):23-35
A number of cases where earthquake-induced damage was massive or presented interesting distribution patterns in recent earthquakes are presented.The highly serious damage along reactivated seismic faults and fractures is discussedfor the earthquakes of Pyrgos (Greece), Egio (Greece) and Kobe (Japan). Additionally, we describe characteristic types of building failure in the earthquake of Egio,caused by the coexistence of surficial faulting and liquefaction. Of particularinterest is the damage pattern in the Kobe and Dinar earthquakes, attributed to seismicwave directivity, caused by migration of the earthquake source. Finally, a specialcase of building damage is described for the case of the Adana, Turkey earthquake,which is connected to the shape and the azimuthal location of buildings in respectto the epicentre. All the above cases are valuable sources of information and can be utilizedin the reduction of seismic risk in constructions and urban complexes. 相似文献