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1.
Paired watershed experiments involving the removal or manipulation of forest cover in one of the watersheds have been conducted for more than a century to quantify the impact of forestry operations on streamflow. Because climate variability is expected to be large, forestry treatment effects would be undetectable without the treatment–control comparison. New understanding of climate variability provides an opportunity to examine whether climate variability interacts with forestry treatments, in a predictable manner. Here, we use data from the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA, to examine the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on streamflow linked to forest harvesting. Our results show that the contrast between El Niño and La Niña events is so large that, whatever the state of the treated watershed in terms of regrowth of the forest canopy, extreme climatic variability related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation remains the more dominant driver of streamflow response at this location. Improvements in forecasting interannual variation in climate might be used to minimize the impact of forestry treatments on streamflow by avoiding initial operations in La Niña years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The Georgia Basin–Puget Sound Lowland region of British Columbia (Canada) and Washington State (USA) presents a crucial test in environmental management due to its combination of abundant salmonid habitat, rapid population growth and urbanization, and multiple national jurisdictions. It is also hydrologically complex and heterogeneous, containing at least three streamflow regimes: pluvial (rainfall-driven winter freshet), nival (melt-driven summer freshet), and hybrid (both winter and summer freshets), reflecting differing elevation ranges within various watersheds. We performed bootstrapped composite analyses of river discharge, air temperature, and precipitation data to assess El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) impacts upon annual hydrometeorological cycles across the study area. Canadian and American data were employed from a total of 21 hydrometric and four meteorological stations. The surface meteorological anomalies showed strong regional coherence. In contrast, the seasonal impacts of coherent modes of Pacific circulation variability were found to be fundamentally different between streamflow regimes. Thus, ENSO and PDO effects can vary from one stream to the next within this region, albeit in a systematic way. Furthermore, watershed glacial cover appeared to complicate such relationships locally; and an additional annual streamflow regime was identified that exhibits climatically driven non-linear phase transitions. The spatial heterogeneity of seasonal flow responses to climatic variability may have substantial implications to catchment-specific management and planning of water resources and hydroelectric power generation, and it may also have ecological consequences due to the matching or phase-locking of lotic and riparian biological activity and life cycles to the seasonal cycle. The results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that assessments of the streamflow impacts of ocean–atmosphere circulation modes must accommodate local hydrological characteristics and dynamics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The copyright in Paul H. Whitfield's contribution belongs to the Crown in right of Canada and such copyright material is reproduced with the permission of Environment Canada.  相似文献   

3.
The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
In this study, the regional tree‐ring chronology of Picea crassifolia was used to estimate annual (September to August) streamflow of the Shiyang River for the period from AD 1765 to 2010. The linear regression model was stable and could explain 41.5% of the variance for the calibration period of 1955–2005. According to the streamflow reconstruction, dry periods with below average streamflow occurred in AD 1775–1804, 1814–1823, 1831–1856, 1862–1867, 1877–1885, 1905–1910, 1926–1932, 1948–1951, 1960–1963 and 1989–2002. Periods of relatively wet years are identified for AD 1765–1774, 1805–1813, 1824–1830, 1857–1861, 1868–1876, 1886–1904, 1911–1925, 1933–1947, 1952–1959, 1964–1988 and 2003–2010. Comparisons with the precipitation reconstructions from surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. The Multitaper spectral and correlation analyses also suggested that the reconstructed streamflow variation in the Shiyang River could be associated with large‐scale atmospheric‐oceanic variability, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages among the streamflow reconstruction, NAO and ENSO suggest the connection of regional streamflow variations to the Asian monsoon and westerlies circulations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The identification of Atlantic Ocean (AO) climatic drivers may prove valuable in long lead-time forecasting of streamflow in the Adour-Garonne basin in southwestern France. Previous studies have identified the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as drivers of European hydrology. The current research applied the singular value decomposition (SVD) statistical method to AO sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to identify the primary AO climatic drivers of the Adour-Garonne basin streamflow. Annual and seasonal streamflow volumes were selected as the hydrological response, while average AO SSTs were calculated for three different 6-month averages (January–June, April–September and July–December) for the year preceding streamflow. The results identified a region along the Equator as the probable driver of the basin streamflow. Additional analysis evaluated the influence of the AMO and NAO on Adour-Garonne basin streamflow.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Oubeidillah, A.A., Tootle, G. and Anderson, S.-R., 2012. Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures and regional streamflow variability in the Adour-Garonne basin, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 496–506.  相似文献   

6.
The northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO- and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.  相似文献   

7.
James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2016,30(24):4644-4653
The potential for dynamic storage to serve as a metric of basin behaviour was assessed using data from five drainage basins with headwaters on the thick sand and gravel deposits of the Oak Ridges Moraine in southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage was directly correlated with the ratio of variability of δ2H in streamflow relative to that in precipitation. This ratio has previously been shown to be inversely related to basin mean transit time (MTT), suggesting an inverse relationship between dynamic storage and MTT for the study basins. Dynamic storage was also directly correlated with interannual variability in stream runoff, baseflow and baseflow:runoff ratio, implying that basins with smaller dynamic storage have less interannual variability in their streamflow regimes. These preliminary results suggest that dynamic storage may serve as a readily derived and useful metric of basin behaviour for inter‐basin comparisons. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
A streamflow drought climatology was developed over the Central Andes of Argentina, a semi-arid region highly vulnerable to climatic variations, based on the analysis of daily historical streamflow records. A threshold level approach was applied on a daily basis for three different severity levels in order to depict the main characteristics of droughts – number of drought events, mean duration and mean severity – over the period 1957–2014. Based on three annual indices that summarize the frequency of drought events, their duration and severity, we identified the main regional dry periods and the main modes of variability through an empirical decomposition. These modes are linked to La Niña conditions on inter-annual time scales and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for the decadal variations, showing the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the development of streamflow drought conditions and its relevance for potential predictability of hydroclimatic variations over the region.  相似文献   

9.
Headwater streamflows in the Rocky Mountain foothills are the key to water availability in the Canadian Prairies. Headwater characteristics, however, have been and continue to be subject to major variability and change. Here, we identify various forms of change in the annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak and attempt to distinguish between the effects of multiple drivers using a generalized regression scheme. Our investigation shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the main driver of significant monotonic trends and shifts in the central tendency of annual mean streamflow in major headwaters. In parallel, the cumulative effects of non‐PDO climatic drivers and human‐induced land use and land management are the main causes of significant variations in the timing of the annual peak. Additional analyses show that time sequences with significant trends in annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak coincide with those that show significant trends in the PDO or non‐PDO component of the air temperature, respectively. The natural streamflow characteristics are substantially perturbed by anthropogenic river flow regulation, depending on the form of change and/or the level of regulation. Evidence suggests that the general tendency of human regulation is to alleviate the severity of above‐ and below‐average streamflow conditions; however, it may also intensify the variability in natural streamflow characteristics during drier years and/or those with earlier annual peak timing. These are circumstances to which the regional water resource system is vulnerable. Our findings are important for the provision of effective regional water resource management in the Canadian Prairies and contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic drivers in coupled human–water systems.  相似文献   

10.
The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The paired watershed experimental (PWE) approach has long been used as an effective means to assess the impacts of forest change on hydrology in small watersheds (<100 km2). Yet, the effects of climate variability on streamflow are not often assessed in PWE design. In this study, two sets of paired watersheds, (1) Camp and Greata Creeks and (2) 240 and 241 Creeks located in the Southern Interior of British Columbia, Canada, were selected to explore relative roles of forest disturbance and climate variability on streamflow components (i.e., baseflow and surface runoff) at different time scales. Our analyses showed that forest disturbance is positively related to annual streamflow components. However, this relationship is statistically insignificant since forest disturbance can either increase or decrease seasonal streamflow components, which eventually limited the positive effect on streamflow at the annual scale. Interestingly, we found that forest disturbance consistently decreased summer streamflow components in the two PWEs as forest disturbance can augment earlier and quicker snow-melt processes and hence reduce soil moisture to maintain summer streamflow components. More importantly, this study revealed that climate variability played a more significant role than forest disturbance in both annual and seasonal streamflow components, for instance, climate variability can account for as much as 90% of summer streamflow components variation in Camp, suggesting the role of climate variability on streamflow should be highlighted in the traditional PWE approach to truly advance our understanding of the interactions of forest change, climate variability and water for sustainable water resource management.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

A connection between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and weather phenomena in eastern Australia has been recognized for several decades. However, little work has been devoted to addressing how this correlation affects hydrological system behaviour within regional-scale catchments. In this study, spatially distributed ENSO effects are evaluated in terms of monthly rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and runoff characteristics for a 1300 km2 catchment. The catchment is located in southeastern Australia where previous studies have indicated only modest ENSO influences on rainfall variability. Spatial and temporal analysis indicates that strongest ENSO-induced rainfall variability occurs during summer months. Additionally, the strength of the relationship is variable in space indicating that topographic controls may affect ENSO influences on rainfall totals and intensities. However, analysis of runoff shows substantially magnified ENSO-induced variability in comparison to the induced variability in rainfall. This may be attributable to the nonlinearity of runoff generation. Differences in antecedent moisture storage conditions will exist but may also be enhanced by complementary ENSO influences on daily rainfall intensities and mean monthly evaporation and temperature totals. The degree of the nonlinearity displayed by the hydrometeorological processes presented demonstrates that the significance of ENSO forecasts for surface water resource management should be assessed with direct regard to streamflow generation rather than on the basis of rainfall totals alone.  相似文献   

13.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(1):57-70
ABSTRACT

Leading patterns of observed seasonal extreme and mean streamflow on the Korean peninsula were estimated using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) technique. In addition, statistical correlations on a seasonal basis were calculated using correlation and regression analyses between the leading streamflow patterns and various climate indices based on atmospheric–ocean circulation. The spatio-temporal patterns of the leading EOT modes for extreme and mean streamflow indicate an upstream mode for the Han River, with increasing trends in summer, and a downstream mode for the Nakdong River, with oscillations mainly on inter-decadal time scales in winter. The tropical ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forcing for both extreme and mean streamflow is coherently associated with summer to winter streamflow patterns. The western North Pacific monsoon has a negative correlation with winter streamflow variability, and tropical cyclone indices also exhibit significant positive correlation with autumn streamflow. Leading patterns of autumn and winter streamflow time series show predictability up to two seasons in advance from the Pacific sea-surface temperatures.  相似文献   

14.
Mountainous headwaters consist of different landscape units including forests, meadows and wetlands. In these headwaters it is unclear which landscape units contribute what percentage to baseflow. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal differences in baseflow isotope and hydrochemistry to identify catchment‐scale runoff contribution. Three baseflow snapshot sampling campaigns were performed in the Swiss pre‐alpine headwater catchment of the Zwäckentobel (4.25 km2) and six of its adjacent subcatchments. The spatial and temporal variability of δ2H, Ca, DOC, AT, pH, SO4, Mg and H4SiO4 of streamflow, groundwater and spring water samples was analysed and related to catchment area and wetland percentage using bivariate and multivariate methods. Our study found that in the six subcatchments, with variable arrangements of landscape units, the inter‐ and intra catchment variability of isotopic and hydrochemical compositions was small and generally not significant. Stream samples were distinctly different from shallow groundwater. An upper spring zone located near the water divide above 1,400 m and a larger wetland were identified by their distinct spatial isotopic and hydrochemical composition. The upstream wetland percentage was not correlated to the hydrochemical streamflow composition, suggesting that wetlands were less connected and act as passive features with a negligible contribution to baseflow runoff. The isotopic and hydrochemical composition of baseflow changed slightly from the upper spring zone towards the subcatchment outlets and corresponded to the signature of deep groundwater. Our results confirm the need and benefits of spatially distributed snapshot sampling to derive process understanding of heterogeneous headwaters during baseflow. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.  相似文献   

16.
Catchments consist of distinct landforms that affect the storage and release of subsurface water. Certain landforms may be the main contributors to streamflow during extended dry periods, and these may vary for different catchments in a given region. We present a unique dataset from snapshot field campaigns during low‐flow conditions in 11 catchments across Switzerland to illustrate this. The catchments differed in size (10 to 110 km2), varied from predominantly agricultural lowlands to Alpine areas, and covered a range of physical characteristics. During each snapshot campaign, we jointly measured streamflow and collected water samples for the analysis of major ions and stable water isotopes. For every sampling location (basin), we determined several landscape characteristics from national geo‐datasets, including drainage area, elevation, slope, flowpath length, dominant land use, and geological and geomorphological characteristics, such as the lithology and fraction of quaternary deposits. The results demonstrate very large spatial variability in specific low‐flow discharge and water chemistry: Neighboring sampling locations could differ significantly in their specific discharge, isotopic composition, and ion concentrations, indicating that different sources contribute to streamflow during extended dry periods. However, none of the landscape characteristics that we analysed could explain the spatial variability in specific discharge or streamwater chemistry in multiple catchments. This suggests that local features determine the spatial differences in discharge and water chemistry during low‐flow conditions and that this variability cannot be assessed a priori from available geodata and statistical relations to landscape characteristics. The results furthermore suggest that measurements at the catchment outlet during low‐flow conditions do not reflect the heterogeneity of the different source areas in the catchment that contribute to streamflow.  相似文献   

17.
The objective of this study was to examine the streamflow variability of Argentinean Andean basins (22°–52°S). Trends and step changes of seven hydrological variables were analysed. In addition, relationships between the hydrological variables and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Niño 3.4, and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices were analysed. Most streamflow variables showed upward trends in the northwest and central-western basins, while downward trends were identified in the Patagonia (southwestern) region. Streamflow of the central-western and Patagonian basins was positively correlated with the Niño 3.4 index. Moreover, an inverse relationship with the SAM was found in watersheds south of 37°S. Positive step changes associated with the PDO phases in the north and central-western basins in the mid-1970s were detected, while negative step changes resulted in Patagonia between 1970 and 2000. This research provides new evidence of the influence of major climate modes on streamflow variability in the western rivers of Argentina.  相似文献   

18.
Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and stream-flow was detected, and the possible association between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and  相似文献   

19.
In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km2) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.  相似文献   

20.
Summer streamflow droughts are becoming more severe in many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, as a result of climate warming. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected. Because the most extreme naturally occurring droughts are rarely captured within short instrumental records water managers likely underestimate, and are unprepared for, worst‐case scenario low flows. To provide a long‐term perspective on recent droughts on Vancouver Island, we developed a 477‐year long dendrohydrological reconstruction of summer streamflow for Tsable River based on a network of annual tree‐ring width data. A novel aspect of our study is the use of conifer trees that are energy limited by spring snowmelt timing. Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability, to our knowledge the reconstruction is the longest of its kind in British Columbia. We demonstrate that targeting the summer streamflow component derived from snowmelt is powerful for determining drought‐season discharge in hybrid runoff regimes, and we suggest that this approach may be applied to small watersheds in temperate environments that are not usually conducive to dendrohydrology. Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent ‘severe’ events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400‐year pre‐instrumental record and should be anticipated within water management strategies. In coming decades, worst‐case scenario natural droughts compounded by land use change and climate change could result in droughts more severe than any since 1520. The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modelled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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