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1.
国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。  相似文献   

2.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is thinning at an accelerating pace and the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise has doubled in less than a decade. New data show rapid and widespread changes in the behaviour of the ice sheet, particularly along the coastal margin. These changes coincide with a decade of sustained Arctic warming of up to 3 °C. Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to global warming will not only be governed by increased surface melting during longer and warmer summers but also by a speed-up of coastal glaciers that drain the interior ice sheet. A precise estimate of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century relies on improved theoretical treatment of these glaciers in computer models.  相似文献   

3.
The now acknowledged thinning of the Greenland Ice Sheet raises concerns about its potential contribution to future sea level rise. In order to appreciate the full extent of its contribution to sea level rise, reconstruction of the ice sheet's most recent last deglaciation could provide key information on the timing and the height of the ice sheet at a time of rapid climate readjustment. We measured 10Be concentrations in 12 samples collected along longitudinal and altitudinal transects from Sisimiut to within 10 km of the Isunguata Sermia Glacier ice margin on the western coast of Greenland. Along the longitudinal transect, we collected three perched boulders and two bedrocks. In addition, we sampled seven perched boulders along a vertical transect in a valley within 10 km of the Isunguata Sermia Glacier ice margin. Our pilot dataset constrains the height of the ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) between 500 m and 840 m (including the 120 m relative sea level depression at the time of the LGM, 21 ka BP). From the transect we estimate the thinning of the ice sheet at the end of the deglaciation between 12.3 ± 1.5 10Be ka (n = 2) and 8.3 ± 1.2 10Be ka (n = 3) to be ～6 cm a?1 over this time period. Direct dating of the retreat of the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has the potential to better constrain the retreat rate of the ice margin, the thickness of the former ice sheet as well as its response to climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The Greenland and East and West Antarctic ice sheets are assessed as being the source of ice that produced an Eemian sea level 6 m higher than present sea level. The most probable source is total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by partial collapse of the adjacent sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in direct contact with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This conclusion is reached by applying a simple formula relating the “floating fraction” of ice along flowlines to ice height above the bed. Increasing the floating fraction lowered ice elevations enough to contribute up to 4.7 m to global sea level. Adding 3.3 m resulting from total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accounts for the higher Eemian sea level. Partial gravitational collapse that produced the present ice drainage system of Amery Ice Shelf contributes 2.3 m to global sea level. These results cast doubt on the presumed stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but destabilizing mechanisms remain largely unknown. Possibilities include glacial surges and marine instabilities at the respective head and foot of ice streams.  相似文献   

5.
Marine ice sheets are grounded on land which was below sea level before it became depressed under the ice-sheet load. They are inherently unstable and, because of bedrock topography after depression, the collapse of a marine ice sheet may be very rapid. In this paper equations are derived that can be used to make a quantitative estimate of the maximum size of a marine ice sheet and of when and how rapidly retreat would take place under prescribed conditions. Ice-sheet growth is favored by falling sea level and uplift of the seabed. In most cases the buttressing effect of a partially grounded ice shelf is a prerequisite for maximum growth out to the edge of the continental shelf. Collapse is triggered most easily by eustatic rise in sea level, but it is possible that the ice sheet may self-destruct by depressing the edge of the continental shelf so that sea depth is increased at the equilibrium grounding line.Application of the equations to a hypothetical “Ross Ice Sheet” that 18,000 yr ago may have covered the present-day Ross Ice Shelf indicates that, if the ice sheet existed, it probably extended to a line of sills parallel to the edge of the Ross Sea continental shelf. By allowing world sea level to rise from its late-Wisconsin minimum it was possible to calculate retreat rates for individual ice streams that drained the “Ross Ice Sheet.” For all the models tested, retreat began soon after sea level began to rise (～15,000 yr B.P.). The first 100 km of retreat took between 1500 and 2500 yr but then retreat rates rapidly accelerated to between 0.5 and 25 km yr?1, depending on whether an ice shelf was present or not, with corresponding ice velocities across the grounding line of 4 to 70 km yr?1. All models indicate that most of the present-day Ross Ice Shelf was free of grounded ice by about 7000 yr B.P. As the ice streams retreated floating ice shelves may have formed between promontories of slowly collapsing stagnant ice left behind by the rapidly retreating ice streams. If ice shelves did not form during retreat then the analysis indicates that most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would have collapsed by 9000 yr B.P. Thus, the present-day Ross Ice Shelf (and probably the Ronne Ice Shelf) serves to stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would collapse very rapidly if the ice shelves were removed. This provides support for the suggestion that the 6-m sea-level high during the Sangamon Interglacial was caused by collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after climatic warming had sufficiently weakened the ice shelves. Since the West Antarctic Ice Sheet still exists it seems likely that ice shelves did form during Holocene retreat. Their effect was to slow and, finally, to halt retreat. The models that best fit available data require a rather low shear stress between the ice shelf and its sides, and this implies that rapid shear in this region encouraged the formation of a band of ice with a preferred crystal fabric, as appears to be happening today in the floating portions of fast bounded glaciers.Rebound of the seabed after the ice sheet had retreated to an equilibrium position would allow the ice sheet to advance once more. This may be taking place today since analysis of data from the Ross Ice Shelf indicates that the southeast corner is probably growing thicker with time, and if this persists then large areas of ice shelf must become grounded. This would restrict drainage from West Antarctic ice streams which would tend to thicken and advance their grounding lines into the ice shelf.  相似文献   

6.
High‐resolution swath bathymetry and TOPAS sub‐bottom profiler acoustic data from the inner and middle continental shelf of north‐east Greenland record the presence of streamlined mega‐scale glacial lineations and other subglacial landforms that are formed in the surface of a continuous soft sediment layer. The best‐developed lineations are found in Westwind Trough, a bathymetric trough connecting Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Gletscher and Zachariae Isstrøm to the continental shelf edge. The geomorphological and stratigraphical data indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet covered the inner‐middle shelf in north‐east Greenland during the most recent ice advance of the Late Weichselian glaciation. Earlier sedimentological and chronological studies indicated that the last major delivery of glacigenic sediment to the shelf and Fram Strait was prior to the Holocene during Marine Isotope Stage 2, supporting our assertion that the subglacial landforms and ice sheet expansion in north‐east Greenland occurred during the Late Weichselian. Glacimarine sediment gravity flow deposits found on the north‐east Greenland continental slope imply that the ice sheet extended beyond the middle continental shelf, and supplied subglacial sediment direct to the shelf edge with subsequent remobilisation downslope. These marine geophysical data indicate that the flow of the Late Weichselian Greenland Ice Sheet through Westwind Trough was in the form of a fast‐flowing palaeo‐ice stream, and that it provides the first direct geomorphological evidence for the former presence of ice streams on the Greenland continental shelf. The presence of streamlined subglacially derived landforms and till layers on the shallow AWI Bank and Northwind Shoal indicates that ice sheet flow was not only channelled through the cross‐shelf bathymetric troughs but also occurred across the shallow intra‐trough regions of north‐east Greenland. Collectively these data record for the first time that ice streams were an important glacio‐dynamic feature that drained interior basins of the Late Weichselian Greenland Ice Sheet across the adjacent continental margin, and that the ice sheet was far more extensive in north‐east Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum than the previous terrestrial–glacial reconstructions showed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(1-2):173-194
The climate history and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet are studied using a coupled model of the depositional provenance and transport of glacier ice, allowing simultaneous prediction of the detailed isotopic stratigraphy of ice cores at all the major Greenland sites. Adopting a novel method for reconstructing the age–depth relationship, we greatly improve the accuracy of semi-Lagrangian tracer tracking schemes and can readily incorporate an age-dependent ice rheology. The larger aim of our study is to impose new constraints on the glacial history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Leading sources of uncertainty in the climate and dynamic history are encapsulated in a small number of parameters: the temperature and elevation isotopic sensitivities, the glacial–interglacial precipitation contrast and the effective viscosity of ice in the flow law. Comparing predicted and observed ice layering at ice core sites, we establish plausible ranges for the key model parameters, identify climate and dynamic histories that are mutually consistent and recover the past depositional elevation of ice cores to ease interpretation of their climatic records. With the coupled three-dimensional model of ice dynamics and provenance transport we propose a method to place all the ice core records on a common time scale and use discrepancies to adjust the reconstructed climate history. Analysis of simulated GRIP ice layering and borehole temperature profiles confirms that the GRIP record is sensitive to the dynamic as well as to the climatic history, but not enough to strongly limit speculation on the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian. In contrast, our study indicates that the Dye 3 and Camp Century ice cores are extremely sensitive to ice dynamics and greatly constrain Eemian ice sheet reconstructions. We suggest that the maximum Eemian sea-level contribution of the ice sheet was in the range of 3.5–4.5 m.  相似文献   

8.
In West Greenland, early and mid Holocene relative sea level (RSL) fall was replaced by late Holocene RSL rise during the Neoglacial, after 4–3 cal. ka BP (thousand calibrated years before present). Here we present the results of an isolation basin RSL study completed near to the coastal town of Sisimiut, in central West Greenland. RSL fell from 14 m above sea level at 5.7 cal. ka BP to reach a lowstand of ?4.0 m at 2.3–1.2 cal. ka BP, before rising by an equivalent amount to present. Differences in the timing and magnitude of the RSL lowstand between this and other sites in West and South Greenland record the varied interplay of local and non‐Greenland RSL processes, notably the reloading of the Earth's crust caused by a Neoglacial expansion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the subsidence associated with the collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet forebulge. This means that the timing of the sea level lowstand cannot be used to infer directly when the GIS advanced during the Neoglacial. The rise in Late Holocene RSL is contrary to recently reported bedrock uplift in the Sisimiut area, based on repeat GPS surveys. This indicates that a belt of peripheral subsidence around the current ice sheet margin was more extensive in the late Holocene, and that there has been a switch from subsidence to uplift at some point in the last thousand years or so. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。  相似文献   

10.
基于MODIS温度产品,着重分析了2000-2020年格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度和表面融化范围的年际变化趋势;联合IMBIE(冰盖物质平衡对比实验)数据分析表面温度对于冰盖物质平衡的影响;进一步讨论了大气环流对于格陵兰冰盖表面温度变化的影响。结果表明:格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度和融化范围趋势较为一致,2000年初期呈现出显著的上升趋势,2012年达到峰值,随后波动下降;整个研究阶段北部区域是增温速率最大的区域,高于其他任何区域两倍,东南部和西南部是温度最高的区域却具有最小的增长率;格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度、融化范围以及物质平衡之间都具有显著的相关性,同时格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度每上升1℃,会导致其物质损失增加74.29Gt·a;最后,经过对北大西洋涛动(NAO)和格陵兰阻塞指数(GBI)指数的分析得到,格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度受到GBI的影响要强于NAO的影响,冰盖夏季表面温度和NAO呈现出负相关(r=-0.64,P<0.05),和GBI呈现出正相关(r=0.77,P<0.05)。  相似文献   

11.
The evolution of the southern Greenland Ice Sheet is interpreted from a synthesis of geological data and palaeoclimatic information provided by the ice-sheet cores. At the Last Glacial Maximum the ice margin would have been at the shelf break and the ice sheet was fringed by shelf ice. Virtually all of the present ice-free land was glaciated. The initial ice retreat was controlled by eustatic sea level rise and was mainly by calving. When temperatures increased, melt ablation led to further ice-margin retreat and areas at the outer coast and mountain tops were deglaciated. Retreat was interrupted by a readvance during the Neria stade that may correlate with the Younger Dryas cooling. The abrupt temperature rise at the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition led to a fast retreat of the ice margin, and after ∼9 ka BP the ice sheet was smaller than at present. Expansion of the ice cover began in the Late Holocene, with a maximum generally during the Little Ice Age. The greatest changes in ice cover occurred in lowland areas, i.e. in the region of the Qassimiut lobe. The date of the historical maximum advance shows considerable spatial variability and varies between AD 1600 and the present. Local anomalous readvances are seen at possibly 7-8 ka and at c. 2 ka BP. A marked relative sea level rise is seen in the Late Holocene; this is believed to reflect a direct glacio-isostatic response to increasing ice load.  相似文献   

12.
汪君霞  姚檀栋 《冰川冻土》2003,25(4):465-470
冰芯中MSA含量具有季节性变化规律, 夏季出现峰值, 冬季为低值. 一定地区MSA高含量和海冰扩展存在相关关系, 有的地区MSA含量还与ENSO事件有一定相关性. MSA/ nssSO42-比值对温度和来源区域都有很好的指示意义. 在一定的条件下冰芯中的MSA可以发生迁移和再定位, 由此也对利用冰芯MSA含量反演当时大气气溶胶中成分含量的准确性提出了质疑. 总结了近几年来冰芯研究中的MSA和nssSO42-, 特别是极地冰芯MSA的研究进展, 并对利用MSA来研究全球变化的前景进行了预测和展望.  相似文献   

13.
Hughes, Terence J. 1987 06 01: Deluge II and the continent of doom: rising sea level and collapsing Antarctic ice. Boreas , Vol. 16, pp. 89–100. Oslo. ISSN 0300–9483.
Many cultures in both the Old and New Worlds have preserved legends of a Great Flood. In the Biblical deluge, 'the springs of the great deep broke through and the sluices of heaven opened' (Genesis 7: 11). The rise in sea level, as opposed to prolonged rainfall, is a conceivable cause of global flooding because the last stages in collapse of late Wisconsin/Weichselian ice sheets occurred in the late prehistorical period, from 8,000 to 6,000 B.C. A possible mechanism that might collapse large parts of ice sheets in a short time is found in Jakobshavns Isbrae, which drains the west-central part of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This mechanism, called the Jakobshavns Effect, is described and its possible role in Holocene collapse of former Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Deluge I) and future collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (Deluge II) is examined. Rapid global flooding by this mechanism is extremely unlikely; however, we lack the information needed to eliminate the possibility.  相似文献   

14.
Key external forcing factors have been proposed to explain the collapse of ice sheets, including atmospheric and ocean temperatures, subglacial topography, relative sea level and tidal amplitudes. For past ice sheets it has not hitherto been possible to separate relative sea level and tidal amplitudes from the other controls to analyse their influence on deglaciation style and rate. Here we isolate the relative sea level and tidal amplitude controls on key ice stream sectors of the last British–Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets using published glacial isostatic adjustment models, combined with a new and previously published palaeotidal models for the NE Atlantic since the Last Glacial Maximum (22 ka BP). Relative sea level and tidal amplitude data are combined into a sea surface elevation index for each ice stream sector demonstrating that these controls were potentially important drivers of deglaciation in the western British Irish Ice Sheet ice stream sectors. In contrast, the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream was characterized by falling relative sea level and small tidal amplitudes during most of the deglaciation. As these simulations provide a basis for observational field testing we propose a means of identifying the significance of sea level and tidal amplitudes in ice sheet collapse.  相似文献   

15.
The British Isles have been the focus of a number of recent modelling studies owing to the existence of a high‐quality sea‐level dataset for this region and the suitability of these data for constraining shallow earth viscosity structure, local to regional ice sheet histories and the magnitude/timing of global meltwater signals. Until recently, the paucity of both glaciological and relative sea‐level (RSL) data from Ireland has meant that the majority of these glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling studies of the British Isles region have tended to concentrate on reconstructing ice cover over Britain. However, the recent development of a sea‐level database for Ireland along with emergence of new glaciological data on the spatial extent, thickness and deglacial chronology of the Irish Ice Sheet means it is now possible to revisit this region of the British Isles. Here, we employ these new data to constrain the evolution of the Irish Ice Sheet. We find that in order to reconcile differences between model predictions and RSL evidence, a thick, spatially extensive ice sheet of ～600–700 m over much of north and central Ireland is required at the LGM with very rapid deglaciation after 21 k cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.  相似文献   

17.
The abrupt climate shifts identified in Greenland ice cores transformed understanding of the climate system. Although primarily studied in the paleoclimate record, abrupt climate change induced by greenhouse gas rise poses a serious threat to modern humans and ecosystems. We present the first ultra‐high‐resolution view (hundreds of samples per year) of the abrupt onset (within 1 year) of the current interglacial (warm) climate retrieved from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) ice core archive. This abrupt onset is manifested by a marked reduction in storm event frequency and increase in the length of the summer season around Greenland. We apply this metric to the current rapid climatic amelioration in the Arctic as a precursor for future abrupt climate change events.  相似文献   

18.
Studies of oxygen isotopes in foraminifers from deepsea sediments yield information about rates of change of sea level, for hundreds of thousands of years with a resolution of roughly 1,000 years. The statistics regarding fluctuations for the late Quaternary (the last 900,000 years) suggest that a rise of 10 m per 1,000 years (1 m per century) is not unusual, even when the system resides within a warm stage, as now. Values near 2 m per century, while rare, are well within the range of a warm system, beyond the 5-percentile of the overall range. Once sea level is near +10 m, further rise becomes highly unlikely within the conditions of the late Quaternary, suggesting the presence of some kind of natural barrier; that is, lack of vulnerable ice. The present volume of ice generally considered vulnerable (Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheet) adds up (roughly) to the observed limit.  相似文献   

19.
Ice sheets are the only components of Earth’s climate system that can self-destruct. This paper presents the quantitative force balance for bottom-up modeling of ice sheets, as first presented qualitatively in this journal as a way to quantify ice-bed uncoupling leading to self-destruction of ice sheets (Hughes, 2009a). Rapid changes in sea level and climate can result if a large ice-sheet self-destructs quickly, as did the former Laurentide Ice Sheet of North America between 8100 and 7900 BP, thereby terminating the last cycle of Quaternary glaciation. Ice streams discharge up to 90 percent of ice from past and present ice sheets. A hypothesis is presented in which self-destruction of an ice sheet begins when ubiquitous ice-bed decoupling, quantified as a floating fraction of ice, proceeds along ice streams. This causes ice streams to surge and reduce thickness by some 90 percent, and height above sea level by up to 99 percent for floating ice, so the ice sheet undergoes gravitational collapse. Ice collapsing over marine embayments becomes floating ice shelves that may then disintegrate rapidly. This floods the world ocean with icebergs that reduce the ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange, thereby triggering climate change. Calving bays migrate up low stagnating ice streams and carve out the accumulation zone of the collapsed ice sheet, which prevents its recovery, decreases Earth’s albedo, and terminates the glaciation cycle. This sequence of events may coincide with a proposed life cycle of ice streams that drain the ice sheet. A first-order treatment of these life cycles is presented that depends on the longitudinal force balance along the flowbands of ice streams and gives a first approximation to ice-bed uncoupling at snapshots during gravitational collapse into ice shelves that disintegrate, thereby removing the ice sheet. The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is assessed using this bottom-up approach.  相似文献   

20.
Accurate prediction of future sea level rise requires models that accurately reproduce and explain the recent observed dramatic ice sheet behaviours. This study presents a new multi-phase, multiple-rheology, scalable and extensible geofluid model of the Greenland ice sheet that shows the credential of successfully reproducing the mass loss rate derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the microwave remote sensed surface melt area over the past decade. Model simulated early 21st century surface ice flow compares satisfactorily with InSAR measurements. Accurate simulation of the three metrics simultaneously cannot be explained by fortunate model tuning and give us confidence in using this modelling system for projection of the future fate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Based on this fully adaptable three dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled prognostic ice model, we examined the flow sensitivity to granular basal sliding, and further identified that this leads to a positive feedback contributing to enhanced mass loss in a future warming climate. The rheological properties of ice depend sensitively on its temperature, thus we further verified modelâ?s temperature solver against in situ observations. Driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric parameters, the ice model simulated GrIS mass loss rate compares favourably with that derived from the GRACE measurements, or about ?147 km3/yr over the 2002–2008 period. Increase of the summer maximum melt area extent (SME) is indicative of expansion of the ablation zone. The modeled SME from year 1979 to 2006 compares well with the cross-polarized gradient ratio method (XPGR) observed melt area in terms of annual variabilities. A high correlation of 0.88 is found between the two time series. In the 30-year model simulation series, the surface melt exhibited large inter-annual and decadal variability, years 2002, 2005 and 2007 being three significant recent melt episodes.  相似文献   

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