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1.
Pierre Mukheibir 《Climatic change》2013,121(1):67-78
There is a growing concern that countries should reduce their dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation and look to other cleaner technologies. Hydroelectricity is one such option. However, given that hydropower is dependent on rainfall and associated runoff for power generation, it is susceptible to both the positive and negative impacts of climate change, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation and runoff. In this paper, impacts on hydropower generation have been organised as either changes in long-term trends or short-term variability and shocks. These impacts could either manifest themselves as direct impacts on hydropower generation potential or as indirect impacts (or ancillary impacts) such as increased competition for water. Citing examples from around the world, this paper investigates the scale of these projected impacts, and the potential cost implication of inaction. It concludes by making recommendations for possible adaptive options to build resilience in response to local impacts. 相似文献
2.
Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s. 相似文献
3.
Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries. 相似文献
4.
Hydroclimatological response to dynamically downscaled climate change simulations for Korean basins 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Eun-Soon Im Il-Won Jung Heejun Chang Deg-Hyo Bae Won-Tae Kwon 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):485-508
We investigated the hydrological response to climate change simulations for three basins in South Korea. To provide fine-scale climate information to the PRMS hydrological model, an ECHO-G B2 simulation was dynamically downscaled using the RegCM3 double-nested system implementing two different convection schemes, namely, the Grell and the MIT-Emanuel (EMU) schemes. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from the nested domain for a grid spacing of 20 km are used as the input for the PRMS run. Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed over a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2021–2050). We focus on the differences of hydrological impacts in response to both simulations with different performances. Based on the validation of the reference simulations, the EMU simulation shows considerable improvement compared to the Grell simulation, indicating a reduction in the cold and dry biases during summer. This improvement is directly reflected in the hydrological simulation of evapotranspiration and runoff. However, using the RCM simulations without bias-correction showed the limitations of hydrologic simulation, especially snowmelt. Despite large differences in both reference simulations, the change signals of temperature and precipitation derived from the differences between the reference and future simulations show a similar pattern and sign. However, the differences in monthly change in precipitation and temperature between Grell and EMU caused the relatively large differences in runoff changes in the study areas. 相似文献
5.
Climate change is likely to lead more frequent droughts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of America. Rising air temperature will reduce winter snowfall and increase earlier snowmelt, subsequently reducing summer flows. Longer crop-growing season caused by higher temperatures will lead to increases in evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand, which could exacerbate drought damage. However, the impacts of climate change on drought risk will vary over space and time. Thus, spatially explicit drought assessment can help water resource managers and planners to better cope with risk. This study seeks to identify possible drought-vulnerable regions in the Willamette River Basin of the PNW. In order to estimate drought risk in a spatially explicit way, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (rSPI) and relative Standardized Runoff Index (rSRI) were employed. Statistically downscaled climate simulations forcing two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, were used to investigate the possible changes in drought frequency with 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. The results of rSPI and rSRI showed an increase in the short-term frequency of drought due to decreases in summer precipitation and snowmelt. However, long-term drought showed no change or a slight decreasing pattern due to increases in winter precipitation and runoff. According to the local index of spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Willamette Valley region was more vulnerable (hot spot) to drought risk than the mountainous regions of the Western Cascades and the High Cascades (cold spot). Although the hydrology of the Western Cascades and the High Cascades will be affected by climate change, these regions will remain relatively water-rich. This suggests that improving the water transfer system could be a reasonable climate adaptation option. Additionally, these results showed that the spatial patterns of drought risk change were affected by drought indices, such that appropriate drought index selection will be important in future studies of climate impacts on spatial drought risk. 相似文献
6.
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了"气候变化和水"技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上,客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起;气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加,而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果;预计到21世纪中期,河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加,而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少;许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升;预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少;预计较高的水温和极端变化,包括洪旱等,将影响水质并加剧水污染;对全球而言,气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益;预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用;气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行,包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统,同时影响到水的管理;目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响;气候变化挑战"过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况"的传统说法;为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择,必须综合需水和供水双方的战略;减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度,进而减低适应的需求;水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。 相似文献
7.
Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century. 相似文献
8.
21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
应用HBV-D水文模型和多个气候模式预估了不同温室气体排放情景下珠江主干流西江的径流过程,分析了21世纪水资源量和洪水频率的变化。结果表明：2050年后年降水量和年径流量较基准期（1961—1990年）明显增加;流域平均的月降水量和径流量在5—10月间均呈增加趋势,12月至次年2月呈减少趋势;年最大1 d和7 d洪量逐渐增加,重现期逐渐缩短。2030年前枯水期径流增加有望缓解枯水期用水压力,而2050年之后丰水期径流量以及洪水强度、发生频率的增加将给珠江流域防汛抗洪带来更大压力,在制订气候变化对流域水资源影响适应性对策时应考虑这两方面的影响。 相似文献
9.
Effects of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in the Asian Monsoon Area 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
This research investigates the effect of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in response to watershed hydrology. We applied a hydrodynamic water quality model coupled to a hydrological model with a future climate scenario projected by a GCM A2 emission scenario to the Yongdam Reservoir, South Korea. In the climate change scenario, the temperature will increase by 2.1°C and 4.2°C and the precipitation will increase by 178.4?mm and 464.4?mm by the 2050 and 2090, respectively, based on 2010. The pattern changes of precipitation and temperature increase due to climate change modify the hydrology of the watershed. The hydrological model results indicate that they increase both surface runoff itself and temperature. The reservoir model simulation with the hydrological model results showed that increasing air temperature is related to higher surface water temperature. Surface water temperature is expected to increase by about 1.2°C and 2.2°C from the 2050 and 2090, respectively, based on the 2010 results. The simulation results of the effects of climate warming on the thermal structure of the Asian Monsoon Area Lake showed consistent results with those of previous studies in terms of greater temperature increases in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion, increased thermal stratification, and decreasing thermocline depths during the summer and fall. From this study, it was concluded that the hydrodynamic water quality model coupled to the hydrological model could successfully simulate the variability of the epilimnetic temperature, changed depth and magnitude of the thermocline and the changed duration of summer stratification. 相似文献
10.
Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Sarah E. Null Joshua H. Viers Michael L. Deas Stacy K. Tanaka Jeffrey F. Mount 《Climatic change》2013,116(1):149-170
Water temperature influences the distribution, abundance, and health of aquatic organisms in stream ecosystems, so understanding the impacts of climate warming on stream temperature will help guide management and restoration. This study assesses climate warming impacts on stream temperatures in California’s west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds, and explores stream temperature modeling at the mesoscale. We used natural flow hydrology to isolate climate induced changes from those of water operations and land use changes. A 21 year time series of weekly streamflow estimates from WEAP21, a spatially explicit rainfall-runoff model were passed to RTEMP, an equilibrium temperature model, to estimate stream temperatures. Air temperature was uniformly increased by 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C as a sensitivity analysis to bracket the range of likely outcomes for stream temperatures. Other meteorological conditions, including precipitation, were unchanged from historical values. Raising air temperature affects precipitation partitioning into snowpack, runoff, and snowmelt in WEAP21, which change runoff volume and timing as well as stream temperatures. Overall, stream temperatures increased by an average of 1.6°C for each 2°C rise in air temperature, and increased most during spring and at middle elevations. Viable coldwater habitat shifted to higher elevations and will likely be reduced in California. Thermal heterogeneity existed within and between basins, with the high elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada and the Feather River watershed most resilient to climate warming. The regional equilibrium temperature modeling approach used here is well suited for climate change analysis because it incorporates mechanistic heat exchange, is not overly data or computationally intensive, and can highlight which watersheds are less vulnerable to climate warming. Understanding potential changes to stream temperatures from climate warming will affect how fish and wildlife are managed, and should be incorporated into modeling studies, restoration assessments, and licensing operations of hydropower facilities to best estimate future conditions and achieve desired outcomes. 相似文献
11.
根据内蒙古黄河流域内72个国家气象站观测的1961—2005年和区域气候模式CCLM模拟的1961—2100年的气温和降水数据,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预估分析3种RCP情景下头道拐水文站2011—2100年流量变化,评估未来气候变化对流域水资源的可能影响。结果表明:①2011—2100年内蒙古黄河流域气温升高,降水变化不明显,年平均流量呈减少趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景分别减少3.6%、2.7%和23.4%。②未来春季流量以增加为主;夏季在不同情景的变化趋势不一致;秋季在21世纪50年代前以增加为主,之后以减少为主;冬季则以减少为主。③未来流域可利用水资源呈减少趋势,尤其夏季水资源的供需矛盾加剧,以及径流季节分配发生变化,可能产生更大的春季径流。 相似文献
12.
本文利用2015—2017年溪洛渡电站逐日入库及出库流量、逐日电站出力资料、广东逐日用电负荷数据及NCEP逐日再分析资料，针对溪洛渡右岸电站汛期弃水严重、枯期水量不足，电站发电与广东用电需求存在矛盾的几种生产情景，划分为供不应求型、供过于求型和非典型供过于求型3种类型，选取典型个例分析不同类型对应的环流形势和天气成因，并提出今后溪洛渡电站调度的建议。结果表明：每年5、6月，广东常受副热带高压控制，用电需求较大，而宜宾以上流域大多受一致的偏西或西南暖湿气流控制，冷空气活动较弱，不利于产生大范围降水，使得溪洛渡电站发电能力与广东用电需求多呈供不应求型；7—9月，宜宾以上流域多受高原槽及切变线影响，有利于出现明显降水，电站具备满发能力，而华南一般有低涡切变或台风活动，有利于广东出现降水，由于不受副高控制且出现降水，广东用电需求降低，导致出现供过于求型；如广东在副热带高压控制之下，用电需求旺盛，但溪洛渡右岸具备满发能力而出现弃水的情景，往往是因为西南地区降水总体较强，其他水电站加大出力，而电网送出受限等多方面因素影响，导致电网对溪洛渡右岸的电能需求减少，即出现非典型供过于求型。在实际发电生产中可根据天气环流形势提前研判，更加有针对性地开展水库调度、优化电站运行，增加汛期水电电能的有效消纳以及水能资源充分利用。 相似文献
13.
Climate change tends to negatively affect the power sector, inter alia, by causing cooling problems in power plants and impairing the water supply required for hydropower generation. In the future, when global warming is expected to increase, autonomous adaptation to climate change via international electricity markets inducing reallocations of power generation may not be sufficient to prevent supply disruptions anymore. Furthermore, the consequent changes of supply patterns and electricity prices might cause an undesirable redistribution of wealth both between individual power suppliers and between suppliers and consumers. This study ascertains changes in European power supply patterns and electricity prices caused by on-going global warming as well as the associated redistribution of wealth for different climate change scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on short-term effects. Our results confirm that autonomous adaptation in the power sector should be complemented by planned public adaptation in order to preserve energy security and to prevent undesired distributional effects. 相似文献
14.
Responses of arid and semiarid watersheds to increasing carbon dioxide and climate change as shown by simulation studies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to double in the next century causing increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation in some regions of the U.S. The increase in CO2 will also directly affect stomatal conductance of plants. At the first-order watershed scale, changes in evaporative demand, transpiration, and runoff will also occur. Previous modeling studies of the effect of increased CO2 on the water budgets of watersheds have been single-factor exercises where a single parameter representing stomatal conductance was reduced and the results noted. After showing validation results of the hydrology module, we used a comprehensive ecosystem model to examine the consequences of changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2-induced plant-function characteristics on small-basin runoff. As a result of the complex interactions and of the compensatory mechanisms simulated by the model, we conclude that for arid and semiarid watersheds of the western United States, there will be little change or an actual decrease in surface runoff because of increased CO2 and climate change. This is due to the decrease in precipitation imposed on the model simulations. Implementing stomatal closure in the model did not increase runoff from the watersheds when temperatures were increased and precipitation decreased. 相似文献
15.
In the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado, surface irrigation provides most of the water required for agriculture.
Consequently, the region’s future could be significantly affected if climate change impacts the amount of water available
for irrigation. A methodology to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the region is
described. The Integrated Decision Support Consumptive Use model, which accounts for spatial and temporal variability in evapotranspiration
and precipitation, is used in conjunction with two climate scenarios from the Vegetation-Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project.
The two scenarios were extracted and scaled down from two general circulation models (GCMs), the HAD from the Hadley Centre
for Climate Prediction and Research and the CCC from the Canadian Climate Centre. The results show significant changes in
the water demands of crops due to climate change. The HAD and CCC climate change scenarios both predict an increase in water
demand. However, the projections of the two GCMs concerning the water available for irrigation differ significantly, reflecting
the large degree of uncertainty concerning what the future impacts of climate change might be in the study region. As new
or updated predictions become available, the methodology described here can be used to estimate the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
16.
Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydropower resource, central to the region’s electricity supply, is vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), an interstate compact agency, has conducted long
term planning for the PNW electricity supply for its 2005 Power Plan. In formulating its power portfolio recommendation, the
NWPCC explored uncertainty in variables that affect the availability and cost of electricity over the next 20 years. The NWPCC
conducted an initial assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower system, but these results are not
incorporated in the risk model upon which the 2005 Plan recommendations are based. To assist in bringing climate information
into the planning process, we present an assessment of uncertainty in future PNW hydropower generation potential based on
a comprehensive set of climate models and greenhouse gas emissions pathways. We find that the prognosis for PNW hydropower
supply under climate change is worse than anticipated by the NWPCC’s assessment. Differences between the predictions of individual
climate models are found to contribute more to overall uncertainty than do divergent emissions pathways. Uncertainty in predictions
of precipitation change appears to be more important with respect to impact on PNW hydropower than uncertainty in predictions
of temperature change. We also find that a simple regression model captures nearly all of the response of a sequence of complex
numerical models to large scale changes in climate. This result offers the possibility of streamlining both top-down impact
assessment and bottom-up adaptation planning for PNW water and energy resources. 相似文献
17.
Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Peter H. Gleick 《Climatic change》1987,10(2):137-160
Concern over changes in global climate caused by growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has increased in recent years as our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and global climate systems has improved. Yet despite a growing understanding of climatic processes, many of the effects of human-induced climatic changes are still poorly understood. Major alterations in regional hydrologic cycles and subsequent changes in regional water availability may be the most important effects of such climatic changes. Unfortunately, these are among the least well-understood impact. Water-balance modeling techniques - modified for assessing climatic impacts - were developed and tested for a major watershed in northern California using climate-change scenarios from both state-of-the-art general circulation models and from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research suggest strongly that plausible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important agricultural areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 8 to 44%. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff-specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management. 相似文献
18.
Adapting water resources management to global climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Philip Williams 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):83-93
This paper provides an overview of the impact of global climate change on water resources management. Changes in precipitation and temperature of the scale predicted by General Circulation Models for a doubled CO2 level will significantly affect annual runoff, runoff variability, and seasonal runoff. These in turn will affect water supply, flood protection, hydropower generation, and environmental resources. In addition, climate change will significantly affect the geomorphic response of the watershed, increasing soil erosion and altering the hydrologic response of the watershed. These geomorphic changes will in turn affect water supply, flood hazard, and riparian ecosystems.Possible water resources management responses are identified. This includes reallocation of water supply from less valuable irrigated agriculture to municipal uses; changes in agricultural methods; increasing incentives for integrated flood management; increasing incentives for watershed management; integration of ecosystem needs in water resources planning; and the need to redesign the operation of existing water projects. 相似文献
19.
In recent decades, a greening tendency due to increased vegetation has been noted around the Taklimakan Desert(TD), but the impact of such a change on the local hydrological cycle remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the response of the local hydrological cycle and atmospheric circulation to a green TD in summer using a pair of global climate model(Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1) simulations. With enough irrigation to support vegetation growth in the TD, the modeling suggests first, that significant increases in local precipitation are attributed to enhanced local recycling of water, and second, that there is a corresponding decrease of local surface temperatures. On the other hand, irrigation and vegetation growth in this low-lying desert have negligible impacts on the large-scale circulation and thus the moisture convergence for enhanced precipitation. It is also found that the green TD can only be sustained by a large amount of irrigation water supply since only about one-third of the deployed water can be "recycled " locally. Considering this,devising a way to encapsulate the irrigated water within the desert to ensure more efficient water recycling is key for maintaining a sustainable, greening TD. 相似文献
20.
全球气候变化,特别是升温、降水强度增加以及极端天气气候事件频发,会通过影响重大工程的设施本身、重要辅助设备以及重大工程所依托的环境,从而进一步影响工程的安全性、稳定性、可靠性和耐久性,并对重大工程的运行效率和经济效益产生一定影响,气候变化还对重大工程的技术标准和工程措施产生影响。本文以青藏铁路（公路）工程、高速铁路工程、重大水利水电工程为典型工程阐述气候变化对重大工程的影响。青藏铁路（公路）沿线的冻土环境的热平衡极易打破,多年冻土环境一经破坏,难以恢复,气候变化已经使多年冻土环境发生变化,并且未来的多年冻土退化在全球变暖的背景下将变得更加严重。未来中国地区的地表气温、年平均降水量、台风等都将发生变化,极端天气气候事件频发,影响我国高速铁路的气候变化向着不利于高铁工程的趋势发展,将给高铁基础设施的服役寿命以及高铁运输秩序等方面带来影响。气候变化导致的温度变化、降水变化,改变了水资源的时空分布规律,对水工程和水安全在水量分配和调度、水资源利用和水文风险管理等产生影响。 相似文献