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1.
The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical ocean model, and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult movement is simulated. Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya. There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated with the warming.  相似文献   

2.
We developed a multi-trophic level ecosystem model by coupling physical, biogeochemical-plankton and fish models. An oceanic general circulation model was coupled with a lower trophic level ecosystem model and a Japanese sardine migration model, and applied to the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of global warming on the pelagic fish ecosystem, such as Japanese sardine, we conducted numerical experiments of growth and migration of Japanese sardine using physical fields for the present day and future with a global warming scenario simulated by a high-resolution climate model. The model results demonstrated possible impacts of global warming on the growth and migration pattern of Japanese sardine. The growths of fish in the current main spawning region under the global warming scenario were significantly slower than those under the present climate scenario. Fish in this region will be at disadvantage for their recruitment under the global warming condition. Prey conditions in the spawning region were projected not to markedly change under global warming condition while water temperature increased. As a result sardine spawning ground was projected to shift towards more north areas. During the feeding migration period in summer, geographical distribution of juveniles fish was projected to shift northwards by one to two degrees latitude under the global warming condition following the change in the distribution of optimal temperature region for feeding. However, this northwards shift of the optimal temperature for feeding was minimized adjacent to the western North Pacific by the cooler water supply by the intensification of the Oyashio.  相似文献   

3.
By using the monthly ERA-40 reanalysis data and observed rainfall data, we investigated the effect of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the South Asian High (SAH) at 200 hPa, and the role played by the SAH in summer rainfall variation over China. It is found that in the interannual timescale the east–west shift is a prominent feature of the SAH, with its center either over the Iranian Plateau or over the Tibetan Plateau. When the ISM is stronger (weaker) than normal, the SAH shifts westward (eastward) to the Iranian Plateau (Tibetan Plateau). The east–west position of SAH has close relation to the summer rainfall over China. A westward (eastward) location of SAH corresponds to less (more) rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and more (less) rainfall in North China and South China. A possible physical process that the ISM affects the summer rainfall over China via the SAH is proposed. A stronger (weaker) ISM associated with more (less) rainfall over India corresponds to more (less) condensation heat release and anomalous heating (cooling) in the upper troposphere over the northern Indian peninsula. The anomalous heating (cooling) stimulates positive (negative) height anomalies to its northwest and negative (positive) height anomalies to its northeast in the upper troposphere, causing a westward (eastward) shift of the SAH with its center over the Iranian Plateau (Tibetan Plateau). As a result, an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) is formed over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and eastern China in the upper troposphere. The anomalous vertical motions in association with the circulation anomalies are responsible for the rainfall anomalies over China. Our present study reveals that the SAH may play an important role in the effect of ISM on the East Asian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

4.
Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.  相似文献   

5.
Low-level cloud variability is critical to the radiation balance of Earth due to its wide spatial coverage. Using the adjusted International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) observations of Clement et al. (2009), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) model simulations, this study examines the observed and the simulated low-cloud variations and their relationships with large-scale environmental variables. From the observational analysis, significant correlations are found between low clouds and those of sea surface temperature (SST), lower tropospheric stability (LTS), and sea level pressure (SLP) over tropical marine areas of low cloud prevailing regions during most of the year. Increase of SST coincides with the reduction of LTS and increased vertical motion, which tends to reduce low-level clouds in subtropical oceans. Among the 14 models investigated, CGCM3 and HadGEM1 exhibit more realistic representation of the observed relationship between low-level clouds and large-scale environments. In future climate projection, these two models show a good agreement in the reduction of low-cloud throughout much of the global oceans in response to greenhouse gas forcing, suggesting a positive low-cloud feedback in a climate change context.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper, we compare integrated water vapour (IWV) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on board the polar-orbiting Terra platform with those from the coupled regional climate model system BALTIMOS for a period of 2 years (October 2001 to October 2003). The comparison was made for the whole drainage basin of the Baltic Sea as well as major parts of Central Europe. The qualitative comparison between the two data sets of the integrated water vapour shows a good agreement. The patterns in the spatial distribution of the averaged integrated water vapour in both data sets are quite similar. However, significant differences occur in the Hungarian Lowlands, along the Po River and the Wallachia (Romania) in the order of 2.5 to 7.0 kg/m2. For these areas, the BALTIMOS model is dryer than the MODIS observations. This could be an indication for the known summer drying effect of BALTIMOS but needs further investigations. The annual cycle as well as a diurnal developing of integrated water vapour from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC is well pronounced in both data sets. For both data sets, the overall annual variations are 17.5 kg/m2. The observed overall diurnal variability are 1.4 kg/m2 for MODIS and 1.04 kg/m2 for BALTIMOS, respectively.  相似文献   

7.
Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canadas High Arctic (80° N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.  相似文献   

8.
Managing Arctic marine resources to be resilient to environmental changes requires knowledge of how climate change is affecting marine food webs and fisheries. Changes to fishery resources will have major implications for coastal Indigenous communities whose livelihoods, health, and cultures are strongly connected to fisheries. Understanding these broad social-ecological changes requires a transdisciplinary approach bringing together contrasting and complementary disciplines and ways of knowing. Here, we examine climatic proxies, ecological, and fishery indicators (stable isotopes, fish condition, and lipid content), and interviews with Inuit fishers to assess how marine ecosystem changes have influenced Arctic Char (Salvelinus alpinus) ecology and fisheries over a 30-year time period (1987–2016) in the Kitikmeot region of the Canadian Arctic. Inuit fishers reported several observations of environmental changes, including longer ice-free seasons, warmer ocean temperatures, and the arrival of new marine species. Biophysical data revealed important changes toward earlier dates of ice breakup (>12 days in some areas) and a shift in isotopic niche reflecting a changing Arctic Char diet, with increased contribution of pelagic carbon and higher trophic level prey. Fish condition was improved in years with earlier ice breakup, as observed by both Inuit fishers and biophysical indicators, while lipid content increased through time, suggesting that longer ice-free seasons may have a positive effect on Arctic Char quality as reflected by both fish condition and lipid content. Long-term impacts of continuing climate change, however, such as the northward expansion of boreal species and increasing ocean temperatures, could have negative effects on fisheries (e.g., physiological impairment in fish if temperatures exceed their thermal range). Continuous community-based monitoring that directly informs fisheries management could help communities and managers adaptively, and sustainably, manage in the face of multiple interacting changes in Arctic marine systems.  相似文献   

9.
Predictions of future climate change rely on models of how both environmental conditions and disturbance impact carbon cycling at various temporal and spatial scales. Few multi-year studies, however, have examined how carbon efflux is affected by the interaction of disturbance and interannual climate variation. We measured daytime soil respiration (R s) over five summers (June–September) in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest on undisturbed plots and plots manipulated with thinning, burning and their combination. We compared mean summer R s by year with seasonal precipitation. On undisturbed plots we found that winter precipitation (PPTw) explained between 77–96% of interannual variability in summer R s. In contrast, spring and summer precipitation had no significant effect on summer R s. PPTw is an important influence on summer R s in the Sierra Nevada because over 80% of annual precipitation falls as snow between October and April, thus greatly influencing the soil water conditions during the following growing season. Thinning and burning disrupted the relationship between PPTw and Rs, possibly because of significant increases in soil moisture and temperature as tree density and canopy cover decreased. Our findings suggest that R s in some moisture-limited ecosystems may be significantly influenced by annual snowpack and that management practices which reduce tree densities and soil moisture stress may offset, at least temporarily, the effect of predicted decreases in Sierran snowpack on R s.  相似文献   

10.
This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.  相似文献   

11.
Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool, with most surface waters of the central and western equatorial Pacific reaching temperatures warmer than 29 °C by 2100. These changes are likely to alter the preferred habitat of tuna, based on present-day thermal tolerances, and in turn the distribution of spawning and foraging grounds. Large-scale shoaling of the mixed layer and increases in stratification are expected to impact nutrient provision to the biologically active layer, with flow-on trophic effects on the micronekton. Several oceanic currents are projected to change, including a strengthened upper equatorial undercurrent, which could modify the supply of bioavailable iron to the eastern Pacific.  相似文献   

12.
We developed ring-width chronologies of Cedrus deodara [(Roxb.) G. Don] and Pinus gerardiana (Wall. Ex. Lamb) from a homogeneous moisture stressed area in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh. Running correlation using a 50-year window with overlap of 25 years showed strong correlations between these species chronologies during the entire common period (ad 1310–2005). Response function analysis indicated that except for January–February, precipitation has a direct relationship with growth of these species. We therefore combined both the species chronologies to develop a statistically calibrated reconstruction of March–July precipitation that spans from ad 1310–2004, and explains 46% of the variance contained in the instrumental data from the calibration period 1951–1994. In the past 694 years of the reconstruction, the wettest period was in the twentieth century (1963–1992) and the driest in the eighteenth century (1773–1802). The relationships observed between reconstructed precipitation and Indian summer monsoon on interdecadal scale, SOI, PDO and NAO indicate the potential utility of such long-term reconstructions in understanding the large-scale climate variability. Multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis indicated significant (p < 0.05) spectral peaks at 2–4, 6, 8, 10, 30, 33, 37 and 40–42 years in the reconstructed precipitation data.  相似文献   

13.
The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California’s Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook’s ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river’s temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2°C, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4°C could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction.  相似文献   

14.
IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.  相似文献   

15.
D. Graves  A. Maule 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):399-411
The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.  相似文献   

16.
The gas-phase reaction of ClONO2 with HCl was investigated using two large-volume environmental chambers with analysis by in situ long pathlength Fourier transform infrared absorption spectroscopy. In these chambers the reaction was observed to proceed, at least in part, by heterogenous routes, and an upper limit to the rate constant for the homogeneous gas-phase reaction of geneous routes, and an upper limit to the rate constant for the homogeneous gas-phase reaction of $$k\left( {{\text{ClONO}}_{\text{2}} + {\text{HCl}}} \right) < 1.5 \times 10^{ - 19} {\text{ cm}}^{\text{3}} {\text{ molecule}}^{{\text{ - 1}}} {\text{ s}}^{{\text{ - 1}}}$$ Was derived at 298±2K. Assuming that this room-temperature upper limit to the rate constant is applicable to stratospheric temperatures, this homogeneous gas-phase reaction can be estimated to be of negligible importance as a ClONO2 loss process in the stratosphere.  相似文献   

17.
Exploring the characteristic of the extreme climatic events, especially future projection is considerably important in assessing the impacts of climatic change on hydrology and water resources system. We investigate the future patterns of climate extremes (2001–2099) in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) derived from Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach, under a range of emission scenarios. The extremes are depicted by three extreme temperature indices (i.e., frost days (FD), growing season length (GSL), and T min >90th percentile (TN90)) and five extreme precipitation indices (i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation ≥10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), precipitation >95th percentile (R95T), and simple daily intensity index (SDII)). The results indicate frost days display negative trend over the HRB in the 21st century, particularly in the southern basin. Moreover, a greater season length and more frequent warm nights are also projected in the basin. The decreasing CDD, together with the increasing R10, R5D, R95T, and SDII in the 21st century indicate that the extreme precipitation events will increase in their intensity and frequency in the basin. Meanwhile, the changes of all eight extremes climate indices under A2 and A1B scenarios are more pronounced than in B1. The results will be of practical significance in mitigation of the detrimental effects of variations of climatic extremes and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management, particularly for the HRB characterized by the severe water shortages and fragile ecological environment.  相似文献   

18.
The phenology of many ecological processes including pollination service is modulated by surface air temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climatic change. The Japanese hornfaced bee, Osmia cornifrons (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), was introduced into the USA in the 1970s and has been used as a key pollinator of spring blooming fruit crops such as apple and blueberry. This study examined the effects of future climate change on three key phenological events of O. cornifrons: date for adult emergence (female and male) in spring, date for completion of egg and larval development, and duration for the development in the Eastern USA. We used daily temperature data obtained from 21 models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for 2006–2100 under the two future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). We estimated the Julian dates (JDs) of spring emergence and development of O. cornifrons using the phenological parameters derived from temperature-dependent biophysical models. The JDs for the bee emergence and development are projected to be significantly advanced in the Eastern USA under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The number of days for bee development is projected to be longer in the southern region (+?0.57 days/decade) and shorter in the central (??0.27 days/decade) and northern (??0.65 days/decade) regions of the Eastern USA (all the p values <?0.01). The significantly longer duration of bee development under future climate change could pose a risk to the bee due to the longer period of being exposed to its pests. Implications for management of O. cornifrons population were discussed in this article.  相似文献   

19.
The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of soil temperature are a significant, but seldom described signal of climate warming. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends in soil temperature at depths of 10, 20, and 50 cm in the conterminous US during 1948–2008. We find a warming trend of between 0.2 and 0.4 °C at all depths from 1948 to 2008. The lowest soil temperatures are in Colorado and the area where Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana meet. The coastal areas, such as Texas, Florida, and California, experienced the highest soil temperature. In addition, areas that experienced weak cooling in summer soil temperature include Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Warming was recorded in Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon. In winter, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia show a cooling trend, and Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota have been warming over the 61-year period. Additionally, mix-forest areas experience slightly cooler soil temperature in comparison with air temperature. Shrubland areas experience slightly warmer soil temperature in comparison with air temperature. This study is among the first to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of soil temperature in the conterminous US by using multiple site observational data. Improved understanding of the spatially complex responses of soil temperature shall have significant implications for future studies in climate change over the region.  相似文献   

20.
This case study highlights the implications of the 2003 heat wave for the city of Strasbourg, France. The urban centers of France and other European countries were particularly affected by the heat wave. In some urban areas, the mortality rate was 60% above the expected value (Institute de Veille Sanitaire, 2003). The 2003 heat wave demonstrated once again that populations in urban centers are much more affected by extreme meteorological events than people living in rural areas. The aim of this analysis is to explore differences in thermal comfort conditions of (a) the city center of Strasbourg, and (b) its hinterland. The differences in thermal conditions existing between rural and urban areas are quantified by using a bio-climatological index termed physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). This index is based on the human energy balance and builds a relevant index for the quantification of the thermal environment of humans. We calculate the PET for the years 2003 and 2004 to highlight the temporal changes in the severity of climate extremes. The spatial scope of this study is improved compared to previous works in the field through the inclusion of PET calculations for five different sites on a central place in Strasbourg (Place Kléber). The calculations are characterized by different sky view factors and are compared to the reference site, which is located in a rural area. In the rural hinterland (Entzheim), the analysis of PET indicates a strong cold thermal stress during the winter months but no significant stress in summer. In 2003, summer temperatures were sensed as warmer compared to other years, but did not reach the extreme temperatures that may cause severe heat stress. For both the rural and the urban study sites PET was higher in the summer of 2003 than in 2004, which reflects the inferior thermal conditions in the urban area during the heat wave in 2003. For the entire study period, urban and rural day-time PET reached similar maximal values. Strong differences in PET, however, were observed between the rural and urban areas at night-time. The study of PET for several study sites on a central place in the city (Place Kléber) of Strasbourg for the years 2003 and 2004 showed that the sites with a higher sky view factor present higher values than sites with a lower sky view factor. The comparison of these PET values (Place Kléber) to the results for the rural area showed that during the day and the night the rural city of Entzheim has the lowest PET. During the day, the site at Place Kléber, which is located under a tree, has the lowest PET. The comparison of PET for the years 2003 and 2004 shows that PET in 2003 was about 5 to 7 K higher.  相似文献   

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